2010 NBA Draft Early Entrants: The biggest mistakes

The NBA Draft's Early Entry deadline came and went on Sunday. Today, we will provide you with a bit of fodder over how some of this year's decisions could sway the 2010-11 college basketball season. For a complete list of this year's crop of early entrants, click here.

The way I see it, there are four legitimate reasons for a player to leave school early:

1. He is ready. He is a lock to be a first round pick (its even better if he is projected to go higher than that) and get a guaranteed contract. Contrary to popular belief, it is possible to develop at the NBA level. If you are able to develop while making a couple of million dollars instead of studying for exams, I say go for it.
2. Financial issues. If you are good enough to think that you have a shot of getting drafted, odds are in your favor that you are good enough to make money playing basketball somewhere. If a kid comes from a family in dire financial straits, every one should support his decision to become a professional.
3. He graduated. Like Derrick Brown last season and Eniel Polynice this year, if a player has earned his undergraduate degree, whether that is a result of redshirting a season or graduating in three years, I have no problem if he decides to go pro instead of using up his eligiblity as a grad student. Along those same lines, if a player is older than his class -- a 23 year old junior, for example -- I also think it makes sense to go pro. The older you get, the lower your ceiling for potential becomes.
4. He's a "hot" prospect. If a player's stock is high -- whether that is a result of outstanding potential (think Hassan Whiteside) or he simply had a great NCAA Tournament (think Joakim Noah after the first Florida title) -- but that player is a fraud, so to speak, then it makes sense to capitalize on that higher stock. As they say, you strike when the iron is hot.
   

For those of us that love the game of college basketball, there is nothing that we hate more than to see a kid that had a chance at becoming a star at this level waste his eligibility by declaring for the NBA Draft (and signing with an agent) before he is truly ready to leave. It happens far too often. What players made the biggest mistakes in this year's draft?


Tommy Mason-Griffin and Keith "Tiny" Gallon, Oklahoma, freshmen: Oklahoma had an incredibly disappointing season in '09-'10. Granted, no one was expecting the Sooners to win a national title, but with Willie Warren deciding to return for his sophomore season and the addition of two McDonald's all-american freshmen coming in, OU seemed like they were capable of, at the very least, competing amongst the best in the Big XII. For a variety of reasons, that didn't happen. And for a completely different set of reasons, both TMG and Gallon have entered the draft and hired agents.

Tiny and TMG both should have stayed at Oklahoma.
(photo credit: Red Dirt Sports)

Gallon's hand may have been forced. Thanks to a report by TMZ Sports that a financial advisor in Florida had funneled money to Gallon, he may not have had much of a say in the matter. Gallon is 6'9", an underwhelming athlete, heavier than the ideal is for NBA fours, and far too perimeter oriented for someone of his size. When he actually decided to play this year, he was far too willing to hoist jumpers and far too unwilling to throw his ample weight around on the block. The trend in the NBA these days is fours in the mold of a Lamar Odom or a Shawn Marion, not the second coming of Oliver Miller.

TMG is not much of an NBA prospect either. He is small, looks for his shot first, and didn't really start to show his talent until Warren and Gallon were firmly entrenched in the dog house. He does have some talent -- he can put up points in a hurry, he has deep range on his jumper, and he may have had the nastiest cross over in the country this past season -- but he seems better suited for the And-1 mixtape tour than he does for an NBA roster.


Courtney Fortson, Arkansas, sophomore: Like TMG, Fortson has enough talent to be a star at the collegiate level, but his game doesn't exactly translate to the NBA. He's quick, he has a nice handle, and he is capable of creating off the bounce. But he is also smaller than an ideal NBA point guard, he doesn't have a jump shot, and he is a poor decision maker both on the court and off of it. Between his off-the-court issues at Arkansas and his 5.1 t/o's per game (he averaged more turnovers than most point guards average assists), odds are good that Fortson doesn't get drafted and you never hear his name again.


Lance Stephenson, Cincinnati, freshman: I think we all knew this was coming, but that doesn't mean that "Born Ready" is ready for the league after one year. There is no questioning his talent or his ability to score, but there are quite a few aspects of Stephenson's game that could have made him a much more ideal prospect if he had the chance to work on them. In terms of being a one-on-one player, Stephenson's ability to create is impressive. But he doesn't quite understand when is the correct time to attack, shot selection, or the workings of help side defensively. And while that ability can be developed as a professional, it is unlikely that he lands a guaranteed contract. Wouldn't it make more sense to work on his game playing in the Big East, where he will be on national television and sportscenter regularly, than in the D-League or overseas?

Will Lance Stephenson go the way of Lenny Cooke?
(photo credit: BearcatsSportsPage)

AJ Ogilvy, Vanderbilt, junior: Ogilvy's biggest mistake may have been going back to school after his freshman season. There was a chance he would have been a first round pick in 2008, but since then he has done nothing to improve his profile as a potential pro. Yes, he is crafty in the post, he can rebound the ball, and he has a nice touch from the perimeter, but his flaws are still his flaws. He can't pass out of the post, he can't defend anyone, and he lacks a degree of toughness that he will need banging against NBA centers. In other words, Ogivly is still the same player he was two years ago, which is disconcerting for NBA teams. I'd be pretty shocked if he went in the first round.

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No. 15: 2009-2010 Team Preview: Oklahoma Sooners

2008-2009 Record: 30-6, 13-3 Big XII (2nd)

Key Losses: Blake Griffin (22.7 ppg, 14.4 rpg), Taylor Griffin (9.6 ppg, 5.8 rpg), Austin Johnson (8.6 ppg, 3.9 apg)

Key Returners: Willie Warren (14.6 ppg, 3.1 apg), Tony Crocker (9.6 ppg, 3.2 rpg)

Newcomers: Tommy Mason-Griffin, Steven Pledger, Andrew Fitzgerald, Ryan Randolph, Tiny Gallon, Kyle Hardrick

Willie Warren will need to pick up the scoring load with Blake Griffin gone.
(photo credit: SLAMOnline)

Oklahoma was not a deep team last season, as Jeff Capel rarely went with a rotation of more than seven players. That problem does not look like it is going to change this season, as the Sooners lost three starters and two more guys that became significant role players by the end of the year.

The biggest hole Capel is going to have to fill is up front, obviously. Not only did he lose the Brothers Griffin, but in May 6'6" forward Juan Pattillo, who was expected to come in and provide a lot of energy and minutes this season, was kicked off the team. That means that Capel is going to be forced to rely on three freshmen and two relatively inexperienced seniors in the paint. The best of the bunch will probably be Keith "Tiny" Gallon. Gallon, a freshman who is 6'9" and pushing 300 lb, is skilled for someone his size. He has quick feet, he can score with his back to the basket, he can handle the ball, and he has three point range. The problem right now is that he tends to float to the perimeter too much, especially when he doesn't see the ball enough. But if Gallon can get into better shape, he should get plenty of touches inside.

Freshman Andrew Fitzgerald is similar to Tiny in that he is a big-bodied 6'8" forward. Also lacking a bit in the athleticism department, Fitzgerald is going to push people around, rebound the ball, and rack up fouls on opposing big men. The third freshman, Kyle Hardrick, is going to be an effort guy. He played on a loaded high school team (with fellow Big XII newcomer Xavier Henry), and settled into a role of rebounder, screener, and defender. He is big and athletic, and if he plays hard, Capel will have to find time for him.

The two seniors are Ryan Wright and Orlando Allen. Wright was a highly regarded recruit coming out of high school, but has never put it together. He is strong and athletic, however, so it will be interesting to see if he develops with time opening up in the front court. Allen is a 6'10" center who has battled weight issues in his two year in Norman.

The back court is less of a question mark. It will be anchored by potential all-american Willie Warren. Warren had a slow start to his freshman season, but really developed to the point that by the end of the year some thought he would have been a lottery pick had he left. He is best when he is looking for his shot, first and foremost. What makes him so dangerous is that he has NBA range on his three, but is just as effective in the mid-range. He is also one of the most athletic wings in the country and can finish above the rim with the best of them. While he has the handle and the passing ability to be a primary ball-handler (as he showed last season), Warren is a scorer and will excel playing off the ball.

Which is why landing Tommy Mason-Griffin was so important for Jeff Capel. Mason-Griffin is one of the most highly touted point guard recruits in the country. He is a bit small (listed at 5'10"), but he is quick enough to get into the lane against anyone, can knock down threes from NBA range, and most importantly he is a point guard; he will run the offense, find open players, and can learn a lot from Capel, a former point guard.

Joining Mason-Griffin and Warren on the perimeter will be senior Tony Crocker and junior Cade Davis. Crocker's numbers dipped a bit during his junior season, especially his three point percentages. He is really the only other guy on the Sooners that has any proven ability to score. If Oklahoma wants to remain near the top of the league, the Sooners need Crocker to be a 13-15 ppg guy. Davis is a shooter. He struggled with his confidence and his consistency during last season, but when he gets hot he is as good as anyone in the conference. Don't be surprised is freshman Steven Pledger and sophomore Ray Willis also see time.

Outlook: There are a lot of question marks on this OU team. Will their inexperienced big men be able to handle the Big XII? Will Tony Crocker show up this year? If Tommy Mason-Griffin ready to handle the point guard duties? With the amount of youth that is on this roster, I don't expect Oklahoma to start the year as one of the best teams in the country. But with this amount of talent, and one of the best players in the country, OU will be in the mix by the end of the season.
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2009-2010 College Basketball Season Preview: Freshman

In the one-and-done era of college basketball, the role of freshman has begun to change. No longer are they brought in to school to develop into superstars. Instead, many of the best are expected to star for and carry their respective programs from day one.

Think Greg Oden and Mike Conley, or Michael Beasley, or Kevin Durant.

But there are still plenty of coaches who recruit to fill a hole in their line-upor simply have enough talent on their roster that the freshman are not going to be asked to do more play a role, regardless of their talent level.

These are the Jrue Holidays and the Ed Davis's of the world.

Who will be this season's freshman stars? Which freshman will play the most important role's for their teams?

IMPACT FRESHMAN:

• John Wall, Kentucky: Everyone in the country should know by now what John Wall is capable of (Jerry Stackhouse sure does). Wall is a big, athletic point guard with the ability to get by just about any defender on the perimeter and finish above the rim. Wall also has the ability to find an open man if he draws an extra defender. He isn't the greatest shooter in the world, but he is effective enough that it deserves respect. Wall is the perfect fit as a guard in John Calipari's dribble-drive offense, and while he may not be the best player on Kentucky (that honor goes to Patrick Patterson until further notice), he will arguably be their most important.

John Wall will be a star from day one.
(photo credit: WUOG)

• Derrick Favors, Georgia Tech: Many people (including myself) are predicting the Yellow Jackets to be much improved over last season's 2-14 team. Favors is the main reason for that. He could use some polish on his offensive game, but his athleticism and strength will allow him to succeed at this level. Teaming with Gani Lawal, Georgia Tech will have a front line that few teams will be able to match-up with.
• Avery Bradley and Jordan Hamilton, Texas: Texas will have one of the biggest and best front lines in the country this season, but with the departure of AJ Abrams, the biggest question for Rick Barnes team is going to be where they get their perimeter scoring from. Bradley and Hamilton were two of the most highly sought after recruits in the nation, and their ability to create points (and make shots) from the perimeter will go a long way in determining whether Texas is going to be a good team or a great team.
• Lance Stephenson, Cincinnati: Stephenson's high school troubles were well-documented over the past year. From an overbearing father to questions regarding his eligibility to an arrest for allegedly groping a female classmate, "Born Ready" became the pariah of the 2009 recruiting class. He ended up at Cincinnati, which is happens to be a great fit for him. Stephenson may be the best all-around scorer in the class of '09, and when paired with senior Deonta Vaughn, he gives Mick Cronin arguably the best 1-2 punch in the Big East.
• Abdul Gaddy, Washington: Gaddy, like Stephenson, had a roller-coaster recruitment. Many originally thought he was destined for Memphis, but after a booster (who happened to be the CEO of FedEx) placed a call to Gaddy's mother (who is a customer service rep for FedEx), the Tigers seemed to back off his recruitment a bit. Gaddy then committed to Arizona, but backed out as a result of the changeover that program is going through. He ended up at U-Dub, where he will thrive in the uptempo system Lorenzo Romar runs. More importantly, his addition will allow Isaiah Thomas to get more minutes playing off the ball where is more effective.

Gaddy may be the best guard in the Pac-10 this year.
(photo credit: ESPN)

• Kenny Boynton, Florida: Billy Donovan's team lost Nick Calathes to Greece during the off-season, which left a gaping hole at the lead guard spot. While Boynton has a very different skill set than Calathes, he should come in and provide the Gators with a dominant perimeter scorer that can pay either guard spot.

MOST IMPORTANT FRESHMAN

• Keith "Tiny" Gallon and Tommy Mason-Griffin, Oklahoma: Both of these freshman will play very important roles for Jeff Capel. Gallon is a big body that will be relied upon to replace some of the production the Sooners lost with the Brothers Griffin leaving. Mason-Griffin is a tough point guard that can run a team, lead a break, and create scoring opportunities for his teammates. Oklahoma's biggest deficiency last season was their lack of a true point guard, and this addition will allow Willie Warren to slide over to the off-guard spot where he can focus on being a scorer.
• Andre Dawkins, Duke: Dawkins may actually be the most important freshman in the country. Duke was looking at coming into this season with just two guards on their roster, but Dawkins, who was originally committed to the Blue Devils for the class of '10, was heading into his fifth year as a high schooler. By taking summer school classes, Dawkins was able to graduate a year early and enroll at Duke. Not only will he provide some much needed back court depth, Dawkins can play. A big time athlete, he is able to provide a scoring punch on the perimeter for Coach K. His size may be his most important tool, as he will be able to play the two, allowing Jon Scheyer to slide over to the point, where he was more effectice this past season. If Dawkins lives up to his hype, Duke should be able to compete for the ACC crown.
• Dante Taylor, Pitt: Taylor will be instrumental in keeping Pitt's streak on NCAA Tournament appearances intact. After losing their entire starting front line (Sam Young, DeJuan Blair, and Tyrell Biggs), there are going to be plenty of minutes and shots available for Taylor. Coming into a program known for their grit in the paint, Taylor will have a lot of pressure on him to produce immediately. The McDonald's all-american should be up to the task.
• Alex Oriakhi, UConn: Like Taylor, Oriakhi is going to have some big shoes to fill along UConn's front line. Oriakhi is not the prototypical UConn center we have become accostomed to. Much less athletic and no where near as good of a shot blocker as guys like Emeka Okafor, Hasheem Thabeet, or Josh Boone, Oriakhi is more of a Jeff Adrien - a workhorse in the paint that will be a load to handle on the glass. He should see minutes right away as UConn's front court will be wide open this season, and if he is able to handle the rigors of a Big East schedule, the Huskies should not experience the drop-off they usually do after a Final Four run.
• John Jenkins, Vanderbilt: While Vanderbilt did not have a great season in '08-'09, they do return everyone off of that team. One of their biggest issues last season, however, was the lack of a scoring punch on the perimeter. Jenkins will provide that, as he may already be the best shooter in the country. Adding Jenkins to a team with AJ Ogilvy, Jeff Taylor, and Jermaine Beal makes the Commodores a sleeper in the loaded SEC East.

John Jenkins will be one of the best shooters in the country as a freshman.
(photo credit: Station Camp Basketball)

• Noel Johnson, Clemson: Clemson will begin this season without a proven scorer or shooter on their perimeter as KC Rivers graduated and Terrence Oglesby has left to play pro ball in Norway. Johnson, who originally committed to USC before the Trojans meltdown, will be the guy Oliver Purnell looks to as a replacement. He is a shooter with deep range and has shown the ability to create for himself when he puts the ball on the floor. The biggest question mark thus far will be his ability to play Clemson's full court press, but given his length and athleticism that should not be a problem if he commits himself
• Peyton Siva, Louisville: With Terrence Williams and Earl Clark leaving, Edgar Sosa is left as the only kid on the Cardinals roster with the ability to create offensively in the half court. As you know, Sosa has been wildly inconsistent during his three seasons in Louisville, which is why Siva is so important. Siva joins Pitino's program with a reputation for being able to ceate scoring opportunities for both himself and his teammates. If Sosa is unable to handle his role as the lead playmaker on this team, look for Siva to slide in and play a major role.
  
• Brandon Paul and DJ Richardson, Illinois: The Illini leaned so heavily on seniors Chester Frazier and Trent Meachem last season. Not so much in their ability to score, as big men Mike Davis and Mike Tisdale both developed into solid scoring threats. It was the little things. Those two defended, they knocked down open shots, and most importantly they were leaders. It is the little things that Bruce Weber will be looking for from Paul and Richardson. While Paul is probably a better offensive player at this point in their respective careers, it is Richardson's defense and toughness that Weber will covet. If these two can effectively replace the departed Illini back court, it will go a long way towards keeping Illinois out of the middle of the pack in a very good Big Ten.
  

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