Five first round picks that won't get a second NBA contract

Joe Alexander was the rising star of the 2008 NBA Draft.

The 6'8" forward was a first round afterthought for much of the season before a series of monster performances -- including scoring 29 or more points four times in a five game stretch in March -- and a Mountaineer postseason run to the Big East semifinals and the NCAA Tournament's Sweet 16 sent his draft stock soaring. That tends to happen when you lead a middle-of-the-pack Big East team to wins over Pitt, UConn, Arizona, and Duke in a three week span.

Alexander's stock shot even higher in the draft combine. Not only had he become a star at the collegiate level, but he was a physical specimen. His 38.5" vertical (and over-12 foot max reach), his combine-best 2.99 second 3.4 sprint, and his combine-best 24 reps of 185 lbs on the bench press had scouts drooling.


That success and potential has yet to translate to the NBA, however. Thanks to a series of injuries and a lack of production when healthy, Alexander became the highest-drafted player to have the organization that drafted him opt against picking up the third-year of his rookie contract. (For those unfamiliar, the way the rookie wage scale works is that a first-round pick receives a guaranteed two-year contract at a slotted salary with team options for the third and the fourth years.)

Who in this draft class projected as a first-rounder is at risk of not making it to their second NBA contract?

Marshon Brooks, Providence: There is no questioning that Brooks was an explosive scorer for Providence, but the way he scored in college doesn't necessarily translate well to the NBA. In college, he had free reign to shoot whenever and from wherever he pleased. In the NBA, he will be a role player asked to hit spot-up jumpers, an area of his game he struggles. In college, he played in an uptempo system that allowed him to use his long-strides and massive wingspan to beat defenders in transition settings. At the next level, his lack of a quick first step and his mediocre explosiveness around the rim will hurt him in a half court setting. Perhaps the biggest issue is on the other side of the ball. He wasn't asked to play much, if any, defense in college. Can he defend in the NBA?

Jordan Hamilton, Texas: As a sophomore, Hamilton developed into one of the most dangerous scoring threats in the Big 12, when he was the focal point of the Longhorn offensive attack. But as a freshman, Hamilton was as much of a risk on the offensive end as he was a strength. Hamilton struggles with the term shot selection. His mindset is to score, score, score, and that hurt Texas at times when freshman Hamilton needed to take a backseat to Avery Bradley, Damion James, and Dexter Pittman. In the NBA, Hamilton will be playing a role more similar to the one he played as a freshman than the one he played as a sophomore. Can he handle being the third or fourth option offensively? And, like Brooks, Hamilton will be a liability on the defensive end.


Chandler Parsons, Florida: At 6'10" with a three point stroke and the ability to handle the ball and create open shots for his teammates, Parsons is an intriguing prospect. There aren't many players in this draft class with his kind of versatility, skill set, and physical tools. The problem with Parsons is that while he does a lot well, he isn't great at anything. He doesn't have one skill that is NBA ready. The little things that he did on the court to help Florida win games aren't going to translate to the NBA. He seemingly got lost in the shuffle in college playing with Kenny Boynton and Erving Walker. What happens at the next level?

Iman Shumpert, Georgia Tech: On paper, Shumpert looks great. He is a 6'6" combo-guard with a massive wingspan, a 42" vertical, and the strength of a post player. He's also a player that averaged 5.0 apg as a freshman playing a secondary role and 17.3 ppg as a junior is a leading role. But anyone that watched Shumpert play can tell you, he struggles with his shot selection -- forcing far too many jumpers for a player that is a sub-par jump shooter -- and his decision making. He's also a player that played on three disappointing Georgia Tech teams, including one that got an NCAA Tournament bid despite a sub-.500 ACC record.

Klay Thompson, Washington State: There is no question about Thompson's ability to shoot the basketball. Simply put, he has range for days. Combine that stroke with his height (6'7"), his high-release point, and his ability to use off-ball screens to get open, and its no wonder that the son of Mychal Thompson was able to score in bunches at the college level. The problem is that, for the past two seasons, Thompson has seen his performance, specifically his efficiency, slip in Pac-10 play. If he struggled to handle the physicality of the Pac-10 -- the weakest of the six major conferences -- will he be able to handle defenders at the next level?

(And since no list is complete without one):

Bold Prediction: Kawhi Leonard, San Diego State: Leonard, like Alexander, is a physical specimen. He's a smooth player with a terrific motor who has a wingspan typically seen on seven-footers. He's much more athletic than the numbers he posted at the NBA Draft combine -- sitting out the drill work while waiting for 45 minutes in a cold gym is not a way to prepare to test your vertical. There are a lot of things that Leonard can do on a basketball court, but most of those traits -- his defense, his rebounding ability, his hustle -- are the result of those physical tools. Leonard is a power forward trapped in a small forward's body. If he doesn't develop his jumpshot and his ball handling ability, can he play on the perimeter in the NBA?
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NBA Draft Profiles: Jordan Hamilton, Texas

Bjorn Zetterberg of SwishScout.com will be helping us out with all of our NBA Draft Profiles this year. You can follow him on twitter @swishscout.

To browse through the latest prospect profiles, click here. To see a complete list of the players we have profiled, click here.

Stats: 18.6 ppg, 7.7 rpg, 2.1 apg, 44.0% FG, 38.5% 3PT

Age: 20, sophomore

Size:

• Listed: 6'8", 230 lb
• Official: 6'6.75" (no shoes), 6'8.5" (with shoes), 6'9.5" (wingspan), 8'8" (reach), 228 lb

Strengths: When their NBA careers are all said and done, Hamilton may end up being the best scorer to come out of the 2011 draft class. He is the prototype for what NBA teams look for. He's a terrific spot-up shooter with the NBA three point line well inside his range. He has a knack for hitting tough, off-balance pull-ups and runners. And when he gets it going, Hamilton is capable of reeling off eight or ten points in the span of a couple of minutes. Hamilton has also developed an improved post game -- complete with a jump hook! -- and is very good at coming off of off-the-ball screens. There are aspects of his offensive arsenal that do need a bit of improvement -- he is far from what you would consider a quality ball-handler and his shooting ability off of the dribble needs work -- but at his size (he measured out at over 6'8" in shoes) with his length and his ability to score on the perimeter, Hamilton has the tools to one day be a very, very dangerous weapon in the NBA.

Weaknesses: While Hamilton projects as a potent NBA scorer, he appears to be headed down quite the opposite road as a defender. To put it nicely, Hamilton struggles on the defensive end of the floor. To put it bluntly, I may be able to beat him off the dribble. He's not all that tough, he's not all that strong, he lacks lateral quickness, and he just doesn't seem to have that desire to shut down his man. We've heard of bad decision makers offensively. Hamilton is a bad decision maker defensively. He bits on pump fakes, he gambles on trying to jump passing lanes, and he reaches in instead of moving his feet. Hamilton's offensive repertoire can fill out eventually. Defense is a mentality, and Hamilton may never be a good defender.

Comparisons:

• Best Case Scenario: Stephen Jackson is a solid comparison, as is a less-athletic Ricky Davis. Both Davis and Jackson were terrific scorers in the NBA, maxing out as over 20 ppg. Neither of them, however, really bought into the concept of being an all-around player, however. Hamilton may end up being a 20 ppg scorer at the next level.


• Worst Case Scenario: Wally Sczcerbiak at the end of his career. If Hamilton doesn't improve his ability to defend, he is going to struggle to find consistent minutes. His ability to shoot and his knack for scoring will always be there, but if he truly wants to become a first option in the NBA, he is going to need to provide a team with more than just points.

Outlook: Heading into his sophomore season at Texas, everyone knew that Hamilton could score. The problem he had as a freshman was his inability to separate what was a good shot from what was a bad shot and his lack of acceptance for being the third or fourth option offensively. Hamilton is always going to be a player that takes bad shots because he can make them. Whoever he ends up playing for at the next level is going to have to accept that. An off-balance runner for Hamilton is a 15 foot pull-up for another player. The acceptance of his role is going to be another issue. Unless he can drastically improve his ability to shoot off the dribble, his effectiveness as a slasher, and how well he finishes around the rim, Hamilton may not ever become a primary scoring option in the NBA. He may average 15-18 ppg, but it will be as a complimentary player. Can he handle not shooting every other time down the floor? Defensively, the biggest reason that Hamilton needs to improve is so that he can defend NBA two-guards. If he is forced to play the three in the NBA because of defensive matchups, it is going to be detrimental to the size advantage that Hamilton will have on the offensive end of the floor.

Draft Range: Mid to Late 1st Round

And the experts say...

• Chad Ford: "NBA scouts have always loved his talent. They believe he's one of the few guys in this draft who could average 20 ppg in the NBA. He measured well for a small forward (6-8 with an 8-8 standing reach) and I'm told he was very good in interviews. If teams feel confident that he'll mature and quit taking crazy shots, he's a very interesting prospect who could go as high as the Kings at No. 7. The Bobcats, Warriors, Suns and Rockets also have major interest."


• Draft Express: "Even though he has the offensive skills to operate as a shooting guard in the NBA, his defensive shortcomings could very well push him to the 3, where he isn't quite as dangerous a mismatch. All in all, Hamilton is clearly a big time offensive talent with a game that is probably better suited for the more wide-open style of the NBA. The superior spacing and faster pace of the professional game will make his shooting and overall scoring ability stand out even more. If he wants to reach his full potential, though, he must improve his mentality on both ends of the floor."


• Swish Scout: "Protégé NBA scorer who is a very good shooter and creator off the dribble in addition to superb offensive awareness. Despite his skills, Hamilton forces too many shots and can appear overly selfish, getting too caught up in scoring during stretches of games and can disappear in the big moments too."

Highlights:


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1/24 - College Hoops Week in Review: Buzzer Beaters galore

Game of the Week: UConn 61, Villanova 59

This week was rife with buzzer beaters, but perhaps the most significant one came from UConn's all-everything point guard Kemba Walker. Villanova's Corey Fisher had tied the game at 59 with 22 seconds left on the clock, and after a UConn timeout, Walker sent the Wildcats back to Philly with a loss thanks to this shot:



Villanova looked like they were pulling away when an Antonio Pena jumper pushed the Wildcat lead to 45-48 at the nine minute mark, but UConn came back. It was a 14-3 run, sparked on the defensive end and capped by a Jeremy Lamb layup with just over three minutes left, that got the Huskies back in the lead. They were up 59-54 with 48 seconds left after two Walker free throws, but Corey Fisher scored five straight points to tie the game and set up the final possession.

Memphis and Indiana State's exciting weeks: Like I said, there were numerous significant buzzer beaters this week -- JaJuan Johnson and Brian Williams can attest to that -- but the games that Indiana State and Memphis played probably resulted in the most chewed finger nails per fan of any program in the country this week.

Indiana State: For the Sycamores, it started with a Tuesday night visit from conference-leading Missouri State. It was a back and forth contest for 40 minutes, but with 4.9 seconds left on the clock, Indiana State had the ball down 69-67. It was inbounded to Jake Kelly, who has battled injuries the past two seasons, and he drove and scored with 0.6 seconds left. Kelly also drew a foul and calmly knocked down the free throw for the 70-69 win:



And that might not have been their wildest game of the week. On Saturday, the Sycamores went into Charles Koch Arena to take on Wichita State, who was a game behind both Missouri State and Indiana State for first in the MVC standings. ISU over came a 10 point second half deficit to take a two point left, but JT Durley tied the game with seven seconds left to force OT. In the first OT, ISU was down eight points, but managed to force a second overtime on a Kelly layup with 24.5 seconds left. Toure' Murry forced the third overtime with a free throw with 8.8 seconds left. In the final OT, a Ben Smith three game WSU a 84-83 lead, and the Shockers would score the next nine points to win 93-83 in triple OT.



Memphis: The Tigers had their own wild week. Still playing without Wesley Witherspoon (one game he was suspended, the other he was injured), the Tigers went 2-0 this week with a couple of fantastic finishes. On Wednesday night, Memphis dug themselves an 18 point hole against Southern Miss. The Tigers fought their way back into the game, and even took a 71-66 lead at one point. The Golden Eagles responded with an 8-2 run, setting up this ending:



Against UAB on Saturday, the Tigers pulled out an exciting overtime game that had a wild last two minutes of regulation. UAB took a 64-62 lead with 1:55 left, but a Tarik Black three point play gave Memphis the lead back. Jamarr Sanders answered with a strong drive and finish, but Will Barton buried a three with 55 seconds left as the Tigers went ahead 68-66. After UAB tied the game up, Barton banked in an off-balance thirty-footer, but he was called for a travel before he got the shot off. In the OT, Memphis didn't allow UAB to score until there were 37 seconds left, but some horrific free throw shooting down the stretch allowed the Blazers two shots to tie on their final possession:



Four OT Madness -- Utah Valley outlasts North Dakota: This one was wild.


Players of the Week: Isaiah Thomas and Matthew Bryan-Amaning, Washington

The Huskies have long been considered the favorite to win the Pac-10, but this week they erased any doubt that their slip-up at Stanford created. U-Dub took care of Arizona and Arizona State at home this week, largely due to the play of these two young men. Thomas has been the best point guard in the country in the month of January. He's averaging 20.2 ppg, 9.2 apg, and 4.2 rpg while gathering 11 steals and posting an assist-to-turnovers ratio of 3:1. That time frame also happens to coincide with the loss of Abdul Gaddy to an acl injury. Thomas has always been a streaky player, but his talent has never really been questioned. Maybe the move to the point and more time with the ball in his hands is what he needed to jump start his season. For the week, he averaged 20.5 ppg, 9.0 apg, and 6.0 rpg.


MBA has developed into a monster in the paint, and showed why this week. Against Arizona and Derrick Williams, he had 18 points, seven boards, and three blocks, and while Williams outplayed him on the stat sheet -- 22 points, 11 boards -- the fact that MBA was able to get Arizona's all-american into foul trouble down the stretch was a big reason Washington pulled away late. On Saturday against Arizona State, MBA had a career-high 30 points and was, again, instrumental in the Huskie's late surge to hold on for the win.

Both MBA and Thomas are not only both playing as well as they have all season, but they seem to have developed a nice connection on the court. Thomas is looking for MBA when he drives, and MBA is getting open and finishing the passes he receives. The more I watch Washington, the more I believe this is a team capable of making a deep tournament run. With Thomas, MBA, and the bevy of wing players on this Washington roster, Lorenzo Romar has plenty of weapons on this team.

The All-they-were-good-too team:

• G: Kevin Foster, Santa Clara: The Broncs had a terrific week, beating both Gonzaga and Portland, but Foster was the star. He had 36 points and six assists against the Zags, following that up with 19 points in the win over Portland.
  
• G: Jordan Hamilton/J'Covan Brown, Texas: The two Longhorn guards combined to averaged 37.5 ppg as Texas knocked off two top ten teams this week. Brown sparked the comeback against Kansas, while Hamilton's second half put away Texas A&M.
  
• G: Cam Long, George Mason: Long led Mason to a important 2-0 week as the Patriots knocked off both Drexel and James Madison to create some space at the top of the CAA standings. Long had 14 points and seven rebounds in the win against Drexel, but it was the 30 points, five assists, and four boards he had against JMU that got him on this team. He did it on 8-9 shooting from the floor, including 4-4 from three.
  
• F: Justin Harper, Richmond: Its about time you start paying attention to this kid. An athletic, 6'10" power forward that shoots 50% from three? He's averaging 18.2 ppg and 6.7 rpg on the season, 25.5 ppg and 7.4 rpg with 11 blocks over the last five, and went had 51 points and 18 boards in two wins this week against George Washington and UMass, who entered the week a combined 6-1 in the A-10.
  
• C: Jared Sullinger, Ohio State: Sullinger was an absolute monster against Illinois on Saturday. He had 27 points, 16 boards, and three blocks, and almost single-handedly got the Illini's entire front line in foul trouble.
  
• Bench: Jimmer Fredette, BYU (42 points at Colorado State); Josh Gasser, Wisconsin (1o points, 12 boards, 10 assists vs. Northwestern); Ben Hansbrough (averaged 20.5 ppg and 5.5 apg in wins over Cincy and Marquette); Kore White, Florida Atlantic (22 points and 11 boards as FAU moved to 7-0 in the Sun Belt); Lazeric Jones, UCLA (205 ppg in 2-0 week); Tu Holloway, Xavier (21.5 ppg, 5.0 apg, four steals in wins over St. Bonaventure and Temple)
  

Team of the Week: Texas Longhorns

The Longhorns firmly entrenched themselves in the debate for the best team in the Big XII, and as a Final Four favorite, with their two wins over top ten opponents this week. On Wednesday, the 'Horns hosted Texas A&M and blew them out of the water, opening up an early 20-5 lead and never seriously getting challenged after that. Then on Saturday, Texas went into Phog Allen Fieldhouse, a place that Kansas had not lost in 69 games, and came back from 15 down in the first half to beat the Jayhawks.


What makes Texas so good this season is their defense. Jordan Hamilton and J'Covan Brown are not exactly elite defenders just yet, but they are much improved over last season. Cory Joseph is long for a point guard and not afraid to get out and pressure on the perimeter, while Dogus Balbay is one of the best on the ball defenders in the country. Combine that with big guys like Tristan Thomspon and Alexis Wangmene to protect the rim and Gary Johnson to clean up the misses, and Rick Barnes crew has settled into a nice defensive rhythm. More important, however, is that this season, in stark contrast to last year, everyone on this Texas team has a clearly defined role. The fact that their best offensive lineup is able to lock up defensively is another big change from last season. Believe it. These 'Horns are for real.

Who had a good week:

• UConn Huskies: The Huskies beat both Villanova and Tennessee this week at home in close games. The wins were nice, but more importantly the Huskies role players are playing great basketball right now. Alex Oriakhi seems to have worked through his midseason slump. Jeremy Lamb sparked the comeback against Villanova and had a career high 16 points against Tennessee. Roscoe Smith and Shabazz Napier can make plays on both ends of the floor. Kemba Walker did not play great this week, but with defenses focusing on slowing him down, UConn's role players have been what is keeping the Huskies in the top 10.

• Washington: I've already talked plenty about these Huskies in this post, so I'll only add this -- the past few seasons Washington has struggled on the road. Six of their next eight games are roadies, including trips to Pullman for Wazzu and Tucson for Arizona. Win those, and maybe the pollsters will start agreeing with Kenpom.
• George Mason, Hofstra, and VCU: There doesn't appear to be one great team in the CAA this season, but the top of this league is tough and balanced. These three teams look like they are starting to separate themselves from the pack. Hofstra, who rode Charles Jenkins to wins over UNC-Wilmington and William & Mary, and VCU, who knocked off Georgia State before going into Richmond to beat Old Dominion, are tied atop the league at 7-1 while GMU picked up wins against Drexel and James Madison to find themselves alone just one game back.
• Xavier Musketeers: Once again, Xavier seems like they are primed to prove the doubters wrong. After a ho-hum non-conference schedule, the Muskies have won their first five games in A-10 play, capped by an 88-77 victory over Temple on Saturday. Don't write off their win at St. Bonaventure, either. The Bonnies are improved this season, and Xavier fought back from an early double digit deficit.
• Memphis Tigers: As we mentioned earlier, the Tigers picked up two huge wins this week, beating C-USA contenders Southern Miss and UAB in exciting fashion on the road without Wesley Witherspoon. Memphis has now won three games in a row, and they are finally starting to look like the team we all expected in the preseason. Memphis is young, but they now appear to be playing not only with effort and intensity, but with more smarts. There have been fewer bad shots and much more defense the last three games.
  

Who struggled this week:

• Seton Hall Pirates: It would have been one of the great storylines of the season if Seton Hall was able to turn things around with Jeremy Hazell's return, but an 0-2 week -- including a loss to Rutgers -- means SHU has now lost eight of ten overall and six of seven in Big East play.
• Colorado Buffaloes: So much for this team being a sleeper in the Big XII. After impressive wins over Kansas State and Missouri, Colorado proceeded to lose to Nebraska and Oklahoma this week.
• Gonzaga Bulldogs: The Zags lost to both Santa Clara and San Francisco this week, dropping them to 3-2 in the conference and setting up an enormous game against St. Mary's on Thursday. If they lose that one, the Zag's stranglehold on the WCC may officially be over.
• Northwestern Wildcats: Northwestern desperately needed to pick up a win against Wisconsin at home on Sunday if they truly wanted to be considered a threat for an at-large bid. Instead, they lost by 32 points.
  
• The MWC: The talk of the MWC in the preseason was that the league had the potential to earn four -- maybe even five -- bids to the NCAA Tournament this season. They may be lucky to get three this year. UNLV got blitzed by Colorado State. The Rams proceeded to lose to BYU at home -- a win they needed if they wanted a real shot at an at-large bid -- while UNLV picked up an ugly win against New Mexico. The Lobos are in real trouble, as they are now just 1-4 in conference play and have lost six of nine. Is Drew Gordon a chemistry killer? The Lobos are just 5-6 since he got eligible.
• St. John's Red Storm: Like Seton Hall, the Johnnies had a chance at being one of the great stories of college hoops this season, but after starting off 3-0 in Big East play, they have now lost four of five. Getting smacked by 25 at Louisville was bad, but losing at home to fellow bubble-dweller Cincinnati at home might have been worse.
• Morehead State: With Austin Peay and Murray State losing a couple of games this week, Morehead had a chance to swoop in an climb their way up the OVC's standings. Instead, they lost their second straight game, this time to Eartern Kentucky, to fall to 5-4 in league play.
  

Matchups of the Week:

• 1/24 - 7:00 pm: Notre Dame @ Pitt
• 1/25 - 9:00 pm: Purdue @ Ohio State
• 1/26 - 10:00 pm: SDSU @ BYU
• 1/27 - 7:00 pm: Hofstra @ VCU
  
• 1/27 - 11:00 pm: St. Mary's @ Gonzaga
• 1/29 - 12:00 pm: Georgetown @ Villanova
• 1/29 - 12:00 pm: Louisville @ UConn
• 1/29 - 12:00 pm: Xavier @ Richmond
  
• 1/29 - 1:00 pm: Minnesota @ Purdue
• 1/29 - 7:00 pm: Kansas State @ Kansas
• 1/29 - 9:00 pm: Missouri @ Texas
  

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Conference Play Primer: The Big XII

Favorite: Kansas Jayhawks

Much like the ACC and the Big Ten, the favorite in the Big XII is pretty easy to identify. That isn't because Kansas has been blowing their opponents away. In fact, it has been quite the opposite. The Jayhawks struggled to beat both UCLA and USC at home, needed a spark from a near brawl at Cal to finally put the Bears away, and were unable to put away teams like Memphis, Arizona, Colorado State, and Texas-Arlington when they jumped out to early leads. But the talent on this roster is undeniable, and that was before Josh Selby joined the team in mid-December. This team still has a way to go in terms of maturity and meshing and learning to play together, and I think they may actually be better with Thomas Robinson (who didn't start until Marcus Morris was benched after his ejection against Cal) providing a physical low post presence alongside one of the Morrii, but they will get there. And once they do, we are going to hear a lot of talk about Duke, Ohio State, and Kansas being the nation's three best teams.


Player of the Year: Jordan Hamilton, Texas

Hamilton has improved so much since his freshman season, averaging a league-high (until LaceDarius Dunn logs enough games to be eligible) 19.5 ppg and 7.3 rpg while shooting 42.3% from deep. He's still a gunner. That is not ever going to change. Hamilton was made to score points. But he's become much better at knowing what is a good shot and what is a bad shot. He's still a bit of a streaky shooter, but now his off games are 6-15 nights, not 2-15 nights. The Longhorns are a legitimate contender in the Big XII, and quite possibly the second best team in the league. With a freshman starting at the point and at center, Hamilton has been forced into the leadership role for this team, and he has embraced it. Texas fans should enjoy it while it lasts, because this kid is well on his way to the NBA Lottery.

All-Conference Team:

• G: Marcus Denmon, Missouri: 17.2 ppg, 2.1 spg, 49.3% 3PT
  
• G: LaceDarius Dunn, Baylor: 21.8 ppg, 4.4 rpg
  
• F: Marshal Moses, Oklahoma State: 17.3 ppg, 8.4 rpg
  
• F: Marcus Morris, Kansas: 15.5 ppg, 6.1 rpg
  
• F: Markieff Morris, Kansas: 13.0 ppg, 9.1 rpg
  

Biggest Surprise: Texas A&M Aggies

I don't want to say that I wrote off the Aggies in the preseason, because it isn't true at all. I thought this team at a shot of playing their way onto the bubble. But with the number of quality seniors that were graduating, I never expected Mark Turgeon to have this team on the verge of the top 25 this early in the season, especially not after they lost to Boston College early in the season. But with that BC loss looking better (Less bad? More acceptable?) and subsequent wins over Temple, Washington, and Arkansas, the Aggies look like they round out the top six in a talented Big XII conference. The biggest reason why has been the emergence of 6'6" forward Khris Middleton has a potential first team all-conference performer. He's averaging 15.4 ppg on the season, which combined with David Loubeau and Nathan Walkup has given the Aggies a very good front court. Turgeon's next task? Getting senoir point guard Dash Harris's shooting percentage up over 22.8%.


Biggest Disappointment: Kansas State Wildcats

The Wildcats were supposed to be one of the best teams in the country this season. They were supposed to be competing for the Final Four come March. Right now, they don't even look like a team that can finish in the top four of the Big XII. This team is talented, but size and athleticism will only get you so far. Jacob Pullen is the only player on this team that can really create his own shot, and he has not been able to find a rhythm yet this season. The same might be able to be said about Curtis Kelly, but Kelly is dealing with his second suspension of the season right now while Pullen will be returning from this three game suspension the next time K-State takes the court. Frank Martin's club plays hard and physical, but without senior leadership, this team far too often looks like they don't have any direction. What's worse is that this team's flaws look very difficult to solve. K-State may just be a middle of the pack Big XII team this season.

Teams to keep in mind:

• Missouri: Missouri is the most exciting team in the country to watch. Not just because they play an uptempo brand of basketball, but because every game they play seems to be a nailbiter. They have an excellent back court this season and Ricardo Ratliffe has provided them a solid low-post presence, but I'd argue the most important player on this team is versatile big man Laurence Bowers.
• Baylor: Its a good thing for the Bears that Kansas State has been as bad as they have been this year because it saved them from being the biggest disappointment. A lot of was expected of this team, but heading into Big XII play, their only win outside of Waco, TX, came in Hawaii against San Diego. They will be fine -- there is too much talent on this team for them not to be -- but its crazy that we thought this team could be better than last year despite losing Ekpe Udoh and Tweety Carter.
• Oklahoma State: Keiton Page is one of the most unlikely really, really good scorers in the country, while Marshall Moses has turned into a star. This team could wind up in the Big Dance.
• Iowa State: Seriously. I don't expect this team to make the NCAA tournament, but with guys like Diante Garrett and Scott Christopherson playing well for new head coach Fred Hoiberg, don't be surprised is the Cyclones catch one of the Big XII's big boys sleeping this season.
  

Teams to forget about:

• Colorado: Alec Burks and Cory Higgins are awesome on the perimeter. The rest of the Colorado roster looks like they would be better off playing for Northern Arizona.
• Nebraska: The Cornhuskers are 10-2, but they also just lost their best player, who left the school to either transfer or head overseas for a contract.
• Texas Tech: I'm not sure what is going on with this team. With two senior stars leading an experienced group, I expected more than 6-7.
  
• Oklahoma: Duh.
  

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We can lament Michigan State's start, but Texas looked pretty good last night

I'd be willing to bet that 90% of the game stories and columns you read about Michigan State's 67-55 loss to Texas will try to answer the question 'what is wrong with Michigan State?'

And its a legitimate question to ask at this point.

Because this is not the typical Tom Izzo team fans in East Lansing have come to expect.

This team is not as physical in the paint as the Spartans normally are. They get beat on the glass and they get beaten up in the post. Kalin Lucas, Korie Lucious, and Durrell Summers were the stars in a clinic of what decisions not to make when handling the ball. In essence, this Michigan State team consists of a bunch of kids that want to show off their handle, make the highlight reel pass, and stand outside firing up jumpers.

That's not the kind of team that Izzo normally fields. And with four losses before the turn of the calendar, its about time to start questioning whether or not we all overrated this Michigan State team.

But by questioning what is wrong with Michigan State, we ignore the fact that Texas played just as big, if a bigger, role in the outcome of this game.


It ignores the fact that the Longhorn front court, led by 17 points and 15 boards (six offensive) from Tristan Thompson, dominated the paint, keeping the Spartan's big men in foul trouble for most of this game. It overlooks just how well Gary Johnson and Matt Hill played. It disregards Jordan Hamilton's continued growth as a player.

This Texas team is legit.

Thompson is well on his way to becoming one of, if not the best big men in the Big XII. His repertoire with his back to the basket is still a long way from being what anyone in their right mind would call polished, but he is active, athletic, and aggressive around the rim at both ends of the floor.

Hamilton still has a tendency to overshoot and to force tough shots. But he's knows how talented he is as a scorer, and he's learning just how much he is capable off offensively. He has a terrific feel for reading a screen set for him off of the ball and he's capable of reeling off four or five shots in a row when he gets in a groove. Tonight he also showed the ability to take advantage of a favorable matchup. Hamilton is 6'7" and strong, and when he was being guarded by one of Michigan State's smaller guard, he was able to take him into the post or use his dribble to get 12-15 feet from the basket, elevating over his defender to knock down a short jumper.

The Longhorn's defense is also starting to round into form. Granted, a number of Michigan State's 16 turnovers were the direct result of poor decision making, but Texas also forced Sparty into tough shots by playing solid, man-to-man defense in the half court.

Most pundits had Texas pegged below the rest of the Big XII's big five -- Kansas, Kansas State, Missouri, and Baylor -- coming into the season.

And even when you take Missouri's win over Illinois into account, there is a legitimate and valid argument to be made that it is Texas that is currently the second best team in their league.
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POSTERIZED: Jordan Hamilton gives us our first poster

We have our first poster of the season!!!

We all knew that Jordan Hamilton was a streaky shooter. He proved that last night against Navy, going for 26 points and taking over early in the second half. Did you all know that he could do this too?



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Jordan Hamilton has the talent, but he needs the shot selection

Talent is a prerequisite for anyone with a desire to play basketball at the D-I level.

What, exactly, do I mean by talent?

Height. Wingspan. Athleticism, and more than just an impressive vertical leap. Ball-handling. An offensive repertoire. Defensive ability. A jump-shot. With range. How much of each a player has can vary with position, and within a position (i.e. you can be super-athletic without a jump shot or relatively unathletic with 30 foot range, but you can’t be both unathletic and without a jumper) but at the end of the day there is an undefined level of "overall talent" a player needs in order to be able to compete as a high-major D-I basketball player.

But talent alone won't make you a star.

Take a look at Jordan Hamilton.

Jordan Hamilton has the potential to be a star this year.
(photo credit: SBNation)

Hamilton is a rising sophomore at Texas with as much god-given ability as just about anyone at his position. A 6'7" wing, Hamilton is a natural scorer. He's athletic enough to get to the rim and finish, he has the range to be a three-point threat, and he has the body control to be effective in the mid-range.

If you were to build a mold for a wing scorer, it would be Hamilton. That's why every recruiting service considered him one of the top ten prospects in the country.

But talent alone didn’t make Hamilton a star for the Longhorns. Sure, he had some great games -- his second half domination of a good Oklahoma State team was one of the most memorable performances of the season -- but he also shot just 41% from the field and saw less than 20 minutes of action in 15 games. He played just two minutes in a Texas loss to Baylor just two days before the Oklahoma State game.

There was one reason, and one reason alone, for Hamilton's inconsistent minutes: shot selection.

And, as Hamilton told Mike DeCourcy of the Sporting News, he learned his lesson.

"All shots aren't good shots; I learned that last year," Hamilton told DeCourcy. "When I have good teammates who can play, I don't have to shoot the ball every time. High school is much different than in college. Maybe shots that I could get away with in high school, I definitely can’t get away with in college level. A couple of bad shots can build up a lead for another team."

One of the most difficult transitions for a scorer and volume shooter moving from high school to college is the idea of a great shot. Hamilton was better than just about anyone he faced in high school. He could get any shot he wanted at any time, and with his ability there was no reason for Hamilton not to take the shot.

But in the Big XII the defense is different. Not only are the individual defenders bigger and stronger, but the team defense is that much better. Where he was able to get a decent look at the basket at will in high school, Hamilton’s jumpers were now contested and off-balance. The help side defense that was a step late in high school now is getting to the charge spot. What came easy to Hamilton in high school wasn’t as easy anymore.

As his numbers (and quotes) suggest, Hamilton learned that the hard way.

Odds are pretty good that Rick Barnes is saying "What was that shot!"
(photo credit: Austin Statesman)

With Damion James, Dexter Pittman, and Avery Bradley all off to the professional level, Hamilton – along with freshmen Cory Joseph and Tristan Thompson, as well as sophomore J’Covan Brown – is going to shoulder much more of the offensive load this season. As such, Rick Barnes is going to be faced with a dilemma. You want Hamilton taking smarter shots and taking them within the flow of the offense. But as Hamilton’s performances against OK State and Missouri indicate, this is a player capable of putting up a lot of points in a short period of time. You don’t want to take away from the aggressiveness that makes him such a scoring threat.

You want him to play within the system. You want him to play with, and off of, his teammates. But you also want him to understand that, when he gets it going, there is nothing wrong with taking a game over.

To his credit, Hamilton seemingly now understands this.

If he can translate that understanding into his performance on the court, there is no reason Hamilton can’t develop into an all-american and a first round draft pick.

And it may be sooner than you think.

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No. 3: 2009-2010 Team Preview: Texas Longhorns

2008-2009 Record: 23-12, 9-7 Big XII (t-4th)

Key Losses: AJ Abrams (16.6 ppg, 40% 3's), Connor Atchley (4.6 ppg, 3.1 rpg)

Key Returners: Damion James (15.4 ppg, 9.2 rpg), Dexter Pittman (10.1 ppg, 5.5 rpg), Gary Johnson (10.0 ppg, 5.3 rpg), Justin Mason (6.1 ppg, 3.7 rpg, 4.0 apg)

Newcomers: Avery Bradley, Jordan Hamilton, Shawn Williams, J'Covan Brown

Damion James' versatility will be a major factor in the Longhorn's success this season.

The last three season's, Texas has essentially ridden the coattails of their star. From Kevin Durant, to DJ Augustin, to AJ Abrams, the offense that Rick Barnes has run during that span has not been much more than a variety of clearouts or one-on-one opportunities. Lacking a great go-to scorer this year, Texas is going to look quite a bit different this year.

For starters, they are going to be big. Really big. It will start with 6'10", 290 lb Dexter Pittman. Pittman has the talent to be an absolute monster in this league. Arguably the strongest player in the league, Pittman is very good at establishing position in the post. When he gets the ball within seven feet, Pittman has a soft touch, which combined with his nimble feet (especially when you consider his size) make him an excellent low block scorer. Pittman's problem is, and has always been, his endurance. He was only able to log 17 mpg last season, which is not a good thing when you consider Pittman was able to average double figures in those limited minutes. If he can get into better shape (which he reportedly has been), not only will it help improve his athleticism and explosiveness but it will allow him to spend more time on the court.

Pittman, as good as he can be, won't be the best front court player for the Longhorns. That will be Damion James. For the numbers James has put up throughout his three years in Austin, he really doesn't get the national credit he deserves. The reason is probably because James has never really developed into much more than a role player, albeit an extremely good one. James is as good of an athlete as you are going to find. A strong 6'8", James is one of the better rebounders in the country despite being more of a combo forward than true power forward. Offensively, James is a threat to knock down a three, but he is most effective when putting his athleticism to work; be it cutting to the basket or attacking the offensive glass. Texas does not really have anyone that is going to be a real threat in the half court this season. If James can develop into a guy that can create his own shot, it will make Texas just that much better.

Gary Johnson is another guy that has not really received much attention during his time at Texas. Despite being just 6'6", Johnson is a load to handle inside. He is an athletic and strong kid with energy to burn, but he also added a decent 12-15 foot jumper to his repertoire last season. Johnson will likely see some time as a starter this season.

Not only will Texas be big this season, they will be deep. Three more guys will see time in the front court. Alexis Wangmene, a 6'7" sophomore, will be back after suffering a season ending knee injury last year. Wangmene is long and fairly athletic, but he is still quite raw and needs to develop a better feel for the game. Clint Chapman, a 6'10" junior, showed some signs of being an impact player last season. He is athletic, has a great motor, and plays with a lot of energy, but he needs to improve his decision making. Matt Hill is a 6'10" junior that had a promising start to his career, but has battled injuries and may struggle to really crack the rotation.

The Longhorns are going to be just as deep in the back court, but the key this season is going to be at the point. Last season, Texas had issues as no one ever emerged as a point guard capable of leading the team. Justin Mason was probably their best option last year, but he is not a point guard. He is their best perimeter defender, an excellent rebounder, and a capable play maker from the wing, he just simply never seemed to feel comfortable in the point guard role. Being able to drive and draw a defender is a a far cry from the ability to run a team. Simply put, he is most effective playing off the ball.

This season, there will be four guys competing for minutes at the point. The best of the bunch may be freshman J'Covan Brown. Brown was supposed to join Texas last season, but he had trouble gaining eligibility and ended up sitting the year out. The reason Brown might be the Longhorns best option is that is he dynamic with the ball. He can score and he can create, and on a team that will be lacking offensive explosiveness, that will be a valuable trait. Jai Lucas, a transfer from Florida who will be eligible for the second semester, is probably their second best option. The son of John Lucas and brother of Oklahoma State's John Lucas III, Jai is much less of a pure scorer than Brown is expected to be, but he may be a better true point guard.

Varez Ward and Dogus Balbay were the two guys that handled the point for Texas down the stretch last season. Ward is a solid player - pretty good at setting up the offense - but he is not a great scorer or shooter and may end up being the guy lost in the shuffle. Balbay, on the other hand, can create and get to the rim, where he will finish with reckless abandon, but he is such a bad shooter that teams defended him inside the foul line when he had the ball at the top of the key.

Three freshmen will be thrown into the mix in the back court. Avery Bradley looks to be the best of the three. Bradley has drawn praise from everyone that has seen him play for his efforts on the defensive end. When he and Mason share the back court, opposing guards are going to have a rough go of it. Offensively, he is a terrific athlete that excels when playing in the open floor and slashing to the rim. If he can add a consistent three point shot, forcing defenders to respect his range, he could end up being one of the best players in the country by the time he leaves Texas.

Jordan Hamilton and Shawn Williams are both tall (6'7") and talented wings. Williams is still basically just an athlete, although he has gotten recognition for his perimeter shooting ability. Hamilton, on the other hand, could be a very important piece for Barnes. A gifted scorer, he has the potential to be unstoppable offensively. He is quick, athletic, a good shooter, and has a feel for being able to score. Like I said with Brown, Texas lacks explosiveness offensively, and having a guy like Hamilton that can get his own shot will be valuable.

Outlook: Texas is going to be big, deep, and tough this season, especially on the defensive end. Where they are going to run into issues are on the offensive end. Is someone going to step up and take control of the point guard spot? Will guys like James, Hamilton, and Brown be able to create their own shots in the half court? Who is going to be the proverbial zone-buster - will there be enough perimeter shooting to force teams to come out of a zone? If Barnes can find a suitable answer to those questions, Texas will have the horses to make a run at not just the Big XII title, but a national championship.
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2009-2010 College Basketball Season Preview: Freshman

In the one-and-done era of college basketball, the role of freshman has begun to change. No longer are they brought in to school to develop into superstars. Instead, many of the best are expected to star for and carry their respective programs from day one.

Think Greg Oden and Mike Conley, or Michael Beasley, or Kevin Durant.

But there are still plenty of coaches who recruit to fill a hole in their line-upor simply have enough talent on their roster that the freshman are not going to be asked to do more play a role, regardless of their talent level.

These are the Jrue Holidays and the Ed Davis's of the world.

Who will be this season's freshman stars? Which freshman will play the most important role's for their teams?

IMPACT FRESHMAN:

• John Wall, Kentucky: Everyone in the country should know by now what John Wall is capable of (Jerry Stackhouse sure does). Wall is a big, athletic point guard with the ability to get by just about any defender on the perimeter and finish above the rim. Wall also has the ability to find an open man if he draws an extra defender. He isn't the greatest shooter in the world, but he is effective enough that it deserves respect. Wall is the perfect fit as a guard in John Calipari's dribble-drive offense, and while he may not be the best player on Kentucky (that honor goes to Patrick Patterson until further notice), he will arguably be their most important.

John Wall will be a star from day one.
(photo credit: WUOG)

• Derrick Favors, Georgia Tech: Many people (including myself) are predicting the Yellow Jackets to be much improved over last season's 2-14 team. Favors is the main reason for that. He could use some polish on his offensive game, but his athleticism and strength will allow him to succeed at this level. Teaming with Gani Lawal, Georgia Tech will have a front line that few teams will be able to match-up with.
• Avery Bradley and Jordan Hamilton, Texas: Texas will have one of the biggest and best front lines in the country this season, but with the departure of AJ Abrams, the biggest question for Rick Barnes team is going to be where they get their perimeter scoring from. Bradley and Hamilton were two of the most highly sought after recruits in the nation, and their ability to create points (and make shots) from the perimeter will go a long way in determining whether Texas is going to be a good team or a great team.
• Lance Stephenson, Cincinnati: Stephenson's high school troubles were well-documented over the past year. From an overbearing father to questions regarding his eligibility to an arrest for allegedly groping a female classmate, "Born Ready" became the pariah of the 2009 recruiting class. He ended up at Cincinnati, which is happens to be a great fit for him. Stephenson may be the best all-around scorer in the class of '09, and when paired with senior Deonta Vaughn, he gives Mick Cronin arguably the best 1-2 punch in the Big East.
• Abdul Gaddy, Washington: Gaddy, like Stephenson, had a roller-coaster recruitment. Many originally thought he was destined for Memphis, but after a booster (who happened to be the CEO of FedEx) placed a call to Gaddy's mother (who is a customer service rep for FedEx), the Tigers seemed to back off his recruitment a bit. Gaddy then committed to Arizona, but backed out as a result of the changeover that program is going through. He ended up at U-Dub, where he will thrive in the uptempo system Lorenzo Romar runs. More importantly, his addition will allow Isaiah Thomas to get more minutes playing off the ball where is more effective.

Gaddy may be the best guard in the Pac-10 this year.
(photo credit: ESPN)

• Kenny Boynton, Florida: Billy Donovan's team lost Nick Calathes to Greece during the off-season, which left a gaping hole at the lead guard spot. While Boynton has a very different skill set than Calathes, he should come in and provide the Gators with a dominant perimeter scorer that can pay either guard spot.

MOST IMPORTANT FRESHMAN

• Keith "Tiny" Gallon and Tommy Mason-Griffin, Oklahoma: Both of these freshman will play very important roles for Jeff Capel. Gallon is a big body that will be relied upon to replace some of the production the Sooners lost with the Brothers Griffin leaving. Mason-Griffin is a tough point guard that can run a team, lead a break, and create scoring opportunities for his teammates. Oklahoma's biggest deficiency last season was their lack of a true point guard, and this addition will allow Willie Warren to slide over to the off-guard spot where he can focus on being a scorer.
• Andre Dawkins, Duke: Dawkins may actually be the most important freshman in the country. Duke was looking at coming into this season with just two guards on their roster, but Dawkins, who was originally committed to the Blue Devils for the class of '10, was heading into his fifth year as a high schooler. By taking summer school classes, Dawkins was able to graduate a year early and enroll at Duke. Not only will he provide some much needed back court depth, Dawkins can play. A big time athlete, he is able to provide a scoring punch on the perimeter for Coach K. His size may be his most important tool, as he will be able to play the two, allowing Jon Scheyer to slide over to the point, where he was more effectice this past season. If Dawkins lives up to his hype, Duke should be able to compete for the ACC crown.
• Dante Taylor, Pitt: Taylor will be instrumental in keeping Pitt's streak on NCAA Tournament appearances intact. After losing their entire starting front line (Sam Young, DeJuan Blair, and Tyrell Biggs), there are going to be plenty of minutes and shots available for Taylor. Coming into a program known for their grit in the paint, Taylor will have a lot of pressure on him to produce immediately. The McDonald's all-american should be up to the task.
• Alex Oriakhi, UConn: Like Taylor, Oriakhi is going to have some big shoes to fill along UConn's front line. Oriakhi is not the prototypical UConn center we have become accostomed to. Much less athletic and no where near as good of a shot blocker as guys like Emeka Okafor, Hasheem Thabeet, or Josh Boone, Oriakhi is more of a Jeff Adrien - a workhorse in the paint that will be a load to handle on the glass. He should see minutes right away as UConn's front court will be wide open this season, and if he is able to handle the rigors of a Big East schedule, the Huskies should not experience the drop-off they usually do after a Final Four run.
• John Jenkins, Vanderbilt: While Vanderbilt did not have a great season in '08-'09, they do return everyone off of that team. One of their biggest issues last season, however, was the lack of a scoring punch on the perimeter. Jenkins will provide that, as he may already be the best shooter in the country. Adding Jenkins to a team with AJ Ogilvy, Jeff Taylor, and Jermaine Beal makes the Commodores a sleeper in the loaded SEC East.

John Jenkins will be one of the best shooters in the country as a freshman.
(photo credit: Station Camp Basketball)

• Noel Johnson, Clemson: Clemson will begin this season without a proven scorer or shooter on their perimeter as KC Rivers graduated and Terrence Oglesby has left to play pro ball in Norway. Johnson, who originally committed to USC before the Trojans meltdown, will be the guy Oliver Purnell looks to as a replacement. He is a shooter with deep range and has shown the ability to create for himself when he puts the ball on the floor. The biggest question mark thus far will be his ability to play Clemson's full court press, but given his length and athleticism that should not be a problem if he commits himself
• Peyton Siva, Louisville: With Terrence Williams and Earl Clark leaving, Edgar Sosa is left as the only kid on the Cardinals roster with the ability to create offensively in the half court. As you know, Sosa has been wildly inconsistent during his three seasons in Louisville, which is why Siva is so important. Siva joins Pitino's program with a reputation for being able to ceate scoring opportunities for both himself and his teammates. If Sosa is unable to handle his role as the lead playmaker on this team, look for Siva to slide in and play a major role.
  
• Brandon Paul and DJ Richardson, Illinois: The Illini leaned so heavily on seniors Chester Frazier and Trent Meachem last season. Not so much in their ability to score, as big men Mike Davis and Mike Tisdale both developed into solid scoring threats. It was the little things. Those two defended, they knocked down open shots, and most importantly they were leaders. It is the little things that Bruce Weber will be looking for from Paul and Richardson. While Paul is probably a better offensive player at this point in their respective careers, it is Richardson's defense and toughness that Weber will covet. If these two can effectively replace the departed Illini back court, it will go a long way towards keeping Illinois out of the middle of the pack in a very good Big Ten.
  

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