2010 NBA Draft Early Entrants: The biggest mistakes

The NBA Draft's Early Entry deadline came and went on Sunday. Today, we will provide you with a bit of fodder over how some of this year's decisions could sway the 2010-11 college basketball season. For a complete list of this year's crop of early entrants, click here.

The way I see it, there are four legitimate reasons for a player to leave school early:

1. He is ready. He is a lock to be a first round pick (its even better if he is projected to go higher than that) and get a guaranteed contract. Contrary to popular belief, it is possible to develop at the NBA level. If you are able to develop while making a couple of million dollars instead of studying for exams, I say go for it.
2. Financial issues. If you are good enough to think that you have a shot of getting drafted, odds are in your favor that you are good enough to make money playing basketball somewhere. If a kid comes from a family in dire financial straits, every one should support his decision to become a professional.
3. He graduated. Like Derrick Brown last season and Eniel Polynice this year, if a player has earned his undergraduate degree, whether that is a result of redshirting a season or graduating in three years, I have no problem if he decides to go pro instead of using up his eligiblity as a grad student. Along those same lines, if a player is older than his class -- a 23 year old junior, for example -- I also think it makes sense to go pro. The older you get, the lower your ceiling for potential becomes.
4. He's a "hot" prospect. If a player's stock is high -- whether that is a result of outstanding potential (think Hassan Whiteside) or he simply had a great NCAA Tournament (think Joakim Noah after the first Florida title) -- but that player is a fraud, so to speak, then it makes sense to capitalize on that higher stock. As they say, you strike when the iron is hot.
   

For those of us that love the game of college basketball, there is nothing that we hate more than to see a kid that had a chance at becoming a star at this level waste his eligibility by declaring for the NBA Draft (and signing with an agent) before he is truly ready to leave. It happens far too often. What players made the biggest mistakes in this year's draft?


Tommy Mason-Griffin and Keith "Tiny" Gallon, Oklahoma, freshmen: Oklahoma had an incredibly disappointing season in '09-'10. Granted, no one was expecting the Sooners to win a national title, but with Willie Warren deciding to return for his sophomore season and the addition of two McDonald's all-american freshmen coming in, OU seemed like they were capable of, at the very least, competing amongst the best in the Big XII. For a variety of reasons, that didn't happen. And for a completely different set of reasons, both TMG and Gallon have entered the draft and hired agents.

Tiny and TMG both should have stayed at Oklahoma.
(photo credit: Red Dirt Sports)

Gallon's hand may have been forced. Thanks to a report by TMZ Sports that a financial advisor in Florida had funneled money to Gallon, he may not have had much of a say in the matter. Gallon is 6'9", an underwhelming athlete, heavier than the ideal is for NBA fours, and far too perimeter oriented for someone of his size. When he actually decided to play this year, he was far too willing to hoist jumpers and far too unwilling to throw his ample weight around on the block. The trend in the NBA these days is fours in the mold of a Lamar Odom or a Shawn Marion, not the second coming of Oliver Miller.

TMG is not much of an NBA prospect either. He is small, looks for his shot first, and didn't really start to show his talent until Warren and Gallon were firmly entrenched in the dog house. He does have some talent -- he can put up points in a hurry, he has deep range on his jumper, and he may have had the nastiest cross over in the country this past season -- but he seems better suited for the And-1 mixtape tour than he does for an NBA roster.


Courtney Fortson, Arkansas, sophomore: Like TMG, Fortson has enough talent to be a star at the collegiate level, but his game doesn't exactly translate to the NBA. He's quick, he has a nice handle, and he is capable of creating off the bounce. But he is also smaller than an ideal NBA point guard, he doesn't have a jump shot, and he is a poor decision maker both on the court and off of it. Between his off-the-court issues at Arkansas and his 5.1 t/o's per game (he averaged more turnovers than most point guards average assists), odds are good that Fortson doesn't get drafted and you never hear his name again.


Lance Stephenson, Cincinnati, freshman: I think we all knew this was coming, but that doesn't mean that "Born Ready" is ready for the league after one year. There is no questioning his talent or his ability to score, but there are quite a few aspects of Stephenson's game that could have made him a much more ideal prospect if he had the chance to work on them. In terms of being a one-on-one player, Stephenson's ability to create is impressive. But he doesn't quite understand when is the correct time to attack, shot selection, or the workings of help side defensively. And while that ability can be developed as a professional, it is unlikely that he lands a guaranteed contract. Wouldn't it make more sense to work on his game playing in the Big East, where he will be on national television and sportscenter regularly, than in the D-League or overseas?

Will Lance Stephenson go the way of Lenny Cooke?
(photo credit: BearcatsSportsPage)

AJ Ogilvy, Vanderbilt, junior: Ogilvy's biggest mistake may have been going back to school after his freshman season. There was a chance he would have been a first round pick in 2008, but since then he has done nothing to improve his profile as a potential pro. Yes, he is crafty in the post, he can rebound the ball, and he has a nice touch from the perimeter, but his flaws are still his flaws. He can't pass out of the post, he can't defend anyone, and he lacks a degree of toughness that he will need banging against NBA centers. In other words, Ogivly is still the same player he was two years ago, which is disconcerting for NBA teams. I'd be pretty shocked if he went in the first round.

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2009-2010 College Basketball Season Preview: Centers

The season is fast approaching. The first games are on Nov. 9th, and the BIAH live blog during ESPN's season kickoff is just two weeks away. So with just a week until actual games are played, we figured the best way to finish up our 2008-2009 season previews is to give you our Top 10 players at each position. You know how much we love a good Top 10 list here.

A few caveats. First, we're talking about how good these guys are as college players, not how well they project as a pro. Second, while it may be too much power for me, I am making the executive decision on what "position" a player is (and it may not necessarily be what he is listed as on a roster). Third, I am not putting the freshman in the list. As much as I've read about these guys and as many Youtube clips as I have watched, I have yet to see many of them play a real game (the all-star games don't count), and I don't think that I could give an accurate assessment until I see them play. Lastly, I love me a good argument, so if you think someone is too low or too high or the wrong position, leave a comment and let me hear about it.

Here are the point guards.
Here are the shooting guards.
Here are the small forwards.
Here are the power forwards.
These are the centers.

Best Freshman:

• Keith "Tiny" Gallon, Oklahoma
• Alex Oriakhi, UConn
• Daniel Orton, Kentucky
• Aaric Murray, La Salle
  

Best of the Rest:

• Dwayne Collins, Miami
• Mac Kowshal, DePaul
• Chas McFarland, Wake Forest
• Keith Benson, Oakland
• Omar Samhan, St. Mary's
• Magnum Rolle, Louisiana Tech
  

Top 10:

• 10. Terrence Jennings, Louisville: Jennings is an imposing athlete. Standing 6'10", he is strong, fast, and can really jump. Where Jennings could really stand to improve is in his polish. Just a sophomore, Jennings was terrific last season at establishing position, many times because he simply beat his man down the floor. An excellent finisher when his teammates set him up, Jennings did not have much in the way of post moves. His strength allowed him to be effective with a strong drop step over his left shoulder, but beyond that he is still quite raw. But, as I said, Jennings is just a sophomore. A summer under the tutelage of Rick Pitino should have him much improved this season.
  

Terrence Jennings will be counted on for quite a bit of production
as Louisville looks to replace Earl Clark and Terrence Williams.
(photo credit: Hell in the Hall)

• 9. Dexter Pittman, Texas: For Pittman, the issue has never been talent. As a 6'10", big-bodied junior, Pittman averaged double figures while playing just 17 mpg last season. A huge reason for that is his ability to establish post position. Checking in at close to 300 lb, Pittman is able to get deep on the block and hold off defenders. He also has shown a decent array of post moves, as he has a solid touch inside of about seven feet. Blessed with nimble feet and solid mobility, Pittman needs to improve his explosiveness as he is not going to jump over many people. That explosiveness should go hand-in-hand with Pittman getting into shape. He came into Texas at close to 400 lb, and even though he has lost near 100 lb, Pittman still has very limited endurance, hence the limited playing time last season. If he gets into shape, Pittman will be a dominant force inside.
  


• 8. Solomon Alabi, Florida State: Alabi is a guy that oozes potential. Tall, long, and mobile, Alabi was the most effective last season as a defender. But he definitely has shown some potential as an offensive player. He has a nice touch out to about 15 feet, and seems to have a decent feel for the game. As is true with most players of his build (tall and skinny), Alabi will be much more effective as he adds strength, especially in his lower body.
  


• 7. Larry Sanders, VCU: Sanders is as raw of a player as you will find. While he did show some improvement in his post game last season, Sanders still is not much more than a catch-and-finish guy offensively. But as the junior has now been in college for two years, that aspect of his game should continue to improve. Where Sanders impresses is with his length. 6'10" with a 7'7" wingspan, Sanders routinely grabs impressive rebounds from outside of his area and blocks quite a few shots. As he continues to add strength and polish, keep an eye on Sanders throughout the season as he is a major reason new head coach Shaka Smart has a chance to keep VCU on the national radar after the graduation of Eric Maynor.
  

Larry Sanders may have the longest wingspan in college basketball.
(photo credit: VCU Athletics)

• 6. Jerome Jordan, Tulsa: Jordan has been on the NBA draft radar for a few years, but during conference play last season, he really came on strong averaging 17 ppg. The biggest strides Jordan has made is offensively. While his overall polish is fairly lackluster, Jordan developed a decent array of post moves and has a much better recognition of when to use them; essentially, he is starting to develop a feel for the game offensively. Defensively, Jordan's shot blocking numbers were down last season, but some of that can be attributed to players avoiding him inside. Overall, the senior is still quite raw as a prospect, but with his above average athleticism, his 7 foot frame, and his 7'6" wingspan, Jordan should produce big time numbers playing in C-USA.
  


• 5. Jarvis Varnado, Mississippi State: Even with Hasheem Thabeet in Storrs last season, Varnado may have been the most dominating interior defender in college basketball. And defensively is where he will make his presence felt again this season. What makes Varnado so effective at blocking shots is that he is disciplined when it comes to biting on pump fakes and he is so quick off the floor, on both his first and second jump. His offensive game still leaves quite a bit to be desired as he is essentially a non-factor outside of dunking the ball. What impressed me the most about Varnado was what happened this off-season. Varnado declared for the draft, knowing that Mississippi State's signing of Renardo Sidney would mean that Varnado would be the Bulldog's 14th scholarship player. So he decided that he would walk-on this year, paying his own way through school.
  


• 4. JaJuan Johnson, Purdue: Johnson has certainly come a long way in the last four years. As a high school junior, Johnson was a 170 lb, 6'10" center that played JV basketball. Today, the 215 lb center (that can reportedly bench press 285 lb) is a potential Big Ten player of the year. Johnson's biggest attribute on the offensive end is his shooting touch. Johnson has excellent range and does not hesitate to shoot when he is left open from 18 feet. While his post game still leaves a bit to be desired, he has developed a fairly reliable turn around and jump hook, which is most effective when he makes quick moves. His under developed frame makes it difficult for him to hold position inside, on both ends of the floor, but you can definitely see why the agile, athletic center is drawing the attention of some NBA scouts.
  


• 3. AJ Ogilvy, Vanderbilt: Ogilvy is very different from the rest of the players on this list as he is not an athlete and doesn't have a ton of potential due to his length and athleticism. Operating one-on-one in the post, Ogilvy is so difficult to stop. He has a variety of effective post moves, and knows how to use pump-fakes and counter-moves to set them up. Where Ogivly struggles offensively is when he is forced to step away from the basket. He doesn't have a great jump shot, and his ability to put the ball on the floor is limited, but improving. While Ogilvy is probably not going to top NBA Draft boards as his athleticism and length is less than ideal, Ogilvy is hands down the best back-to-the-basket center in college basketball.
  


• 2. Ed Davis, UNC: Like Aldrich last season, Davis had limited opportunities as a freshman, playing behind Tyler Hansbrough. But that doesn't mean Davis wasn't productive. In just under 19 mpg, Davis averaged 6.7 ppg and 6.6 rpg. Davis is an excellent athlete with a ton of energy, crashing the offensive glass and defending the rim, especially when coming from the weak side. Davis should see a natural increase in his scoring simply from playing more minutes and being so effective gathering garbage points, but if he can develop a real back to the basket game, Davis could end up being a 15, 10, and 3 block center this year.
  

Cole Aldrich looks to win a second NCAA title.
(photo credit: NY Daily News)

• 1. Cole Aldrich, Kansas: Aldrich improved drastically from his freshman to sophomore season, although much of that was a result of the increased playing he got as a sophomore. Defensively, Aldrich has the ability to be a game changer. At 6'11", he has a ridiculous wingspan and a frame that will be able to hold a lot of strength. As evidenced by his triple-double against a tough Dayton team in the second round of the NCAA Tournament (13 points, 20 boards, 10 blocks), Aldrich is an excellent rebounder with the ability to dominate in the paint. Offensively is where Aldrich could still stand to improve. While he did average 14.9 ppg, much of that was off of lobs, drop-offs, and offensive rebounds. Aldrich is mechanical in the post, and he doesn't have a great touch, but he has shown some signs of developing a solid post game, especially his jump hook. All told, Aldrich is a throwback center, and should once again dominate the Big XII.
  

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2009-2010 Team Preview: Vanderbilt Commodores

2008-2009 Record: 19-12, 8-8 SEC (t-7th)

Key Losses: George Drake (5.4 ppg, 2.7 rpg)

Key Returners: AJ Ogilvy (15.4 ppg, 7.1 ppg), Jermaine Beal (12.5 ppg, 3.5 rpg, 3.2 apg), Jeff Taylor (12.2 ppg, 6.2 rpg), Brad Tinsley (11.0 ppg)

Newcomers: John Jenkins

AJ Ogilvy will anchor the Commodores, who bring back essentially everyone.
(photo credit: VUCommodores blog)

Vanderbilt brought in one of the best recruiting classes in the country last year, and when paired with veterans AJ Ogilvy and Jermaine Beal, those freshman helped lead the Commodores to a reasonably successful season given their youth. With basically everyone returning, Vandy could be a sleeper in the loaded SEC East.

Vanderbilt's success this season will start with the interior play of Ogilvy. As a freshman, Ogilvy was the horse inside for a highly ranked Vandy team. While the Commodores last season did not come near the success of that '07-'08 squad, Ogilvy continued to prove himself a force in the paint. There may not be a more skilled low post player in the country. Mechanically and fundamentally, he has all the tools you want in a back to the basket big man. Far from the world's best athlete (the biggest knock on his game is his lack of leaping ability and a slow first step), Ogilvy gets by thanks to a dazzling array of post moves. If he can continue to improve his face-up game and jumper, he could be a monster this year thriving in Vanderbilt's Princeton-style offense.

Joining Ogilvy up front is a slew of guys standing about 6'8". The best of the bunch is sophomore Jeff Taylor. Taylor, who is originally from Sweden, was one of the best freshman in the country you never heard about last year. His long, 6'7" frame already has NBA scouts drooling (he was named the best NBA prospect in the SEC by Draft Express). Taylor is a phenomenal athlete, excelling in the open floor and on the defensive end. While his skills have yet to catch up to his tools, Taylor should be effective running back door cuts and attacking the offensive glass in Kevin Stallings system. Taylor is going to be key in helping Vandy match up with the oustanding athleticism of teams like Tennessee, Kentucky, and Florida.

The Commodores front court will be deep this year. Junior Darshawn McClellan and sophomores Steve Tchiengang and Fetsus Ezeli were all part time starters last year. Given Ogilvy's so-so defensive ability (and the fact that he has is a bit foul prone), these three will be counted on for toughness inside, both defensively and on the glass, and their 15 combined fouls.

Senior leader Jermaine Beal will once again be the rock at the point for the Commodores. Beal is everything you look for in a point guard in this type of system. He is a good decision maker (3.2 apg, 2.0 a:t/o ratio), can create at the end of the shot clock, and last year showed the ability to be a spot-up three point shooter. He is a physical guard with a great understanding of the system and how he fits into it.

Joining him in the back court will be sophomore Brad Tinsley, who proved as a freshman to be one of the best spot-up shooters in the league as he tied a school-record of 69 3's by a freshman. That shooting prowess will help keep the floor spread for Ogilvy inside. The Commodores really have just two other returners on their perimeter - Lance Goulbourne and Charles Hinkle. Goulbourne, who is 6'8", is an athletic wing with a bit more of a polished perimeter game than Taylor. He had a promising freshman year despite a bout of mono early in the season. Hinkle is a tough defender who can guard multiple positions and will provide Stallings with the ability to use different line-ups. He is the typical glue guy most teams need.

Perhaps the x-factor for this year's team will be freshman John Jenkins. Jenkins, who was a top 25 recruit, is a big time scorer and shooter, averaging over 40 ppg as a senior in high school (he had 30 in every game). His offense is geared around his exceptional shooting ability, which extends well beyond the three point line, although he has shown some ability to put the ball on the floor and pull-up in the mid-range. He will remind a lot of Vandy fans of Shan Foster. He fills a hole for the Commodores as a big-time scorer on the wing.

Outlook: Vandy will be an interesting team to keep an eye on this season. They return basically their entire team. But so does the rest of the SEC. Case in point: while the Commodores will be a borderline top 25 team in the preseason, they are arguably the fifth best team in the SEC East. They are not only deep and talented, you would be hard-pressed to find a more balanced team in the country - a big-time low post scorer, a experienced senior leader at point, multiple shooters on the perimeter, and enough size and athleticism to match up with just about anyone. I really like this team, and would expect them to hang around the top of the SEC. 25 wins and a 4-6 seed come tournament time is not a stretch by any means.
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