Joe Alexander was the rising star of the 2008 NBA Draft.
The 6'8" forward was a first round afterthought for much of the season before a series of monster performances -- including scoring 29 or more points four times in a five game stretch in March -- and a Mountaineer postseason run to the Big East semifinals and the NCAA Tournament's Sweet 16 sent his draft stock soaring. That tends to happen when you lead a middle-of-the-pack Big East team to wins over Pitt, UConn, Arizona, and Duke in a three week span.
Alexander's stock shot even higher in the draft combine. Not only had he become a star at the collegiate level, but he was a physical specimen. His 38.5" vertical (and over-12 foot max reach), his combine-best 2.99 second 3.4 sprint, and his combine-best 24 reps of 185 lbs on the bench press had scouts drooling. 
That success and potential has yet to translate to the NBA, however. Thanks to a series of injuries and a lack of production when healthy, Alexander became the highest-drafted player to have the organization that drafted him opt against picking up the third-year of his rookie contract. (For those unfamiliar, the way the rookie wage scale works is that a first-round pick receives a guaranteed two-year contract at a slotted salary with team options for the third and the fourth years.)
Who in this draft class projected as a first-rounder is at risk of not making it to their second NBA contract?
Marshon Brooks, Providence: There is no questioning that Brooks was an explosive scorer for Providence, but the way he scored in college doesn't necessarily translate well to the NBA. In college, he had free reign to shoot whenever and from wherever he pleased. In the NBA, he will be a role player asked to hit spot-up jumpers, an area of his game he struggles. In college, he played in an uptempo system that allowed him to use his long-strides and massive wingspan to beat defenders in transition settings. At the next level, his lack of a quick first step and his mediocre explosiveness around the rim will hurt him in a half court setting. Perhaps the biggest issue is on the other side of the ball. He wasn't asked to play much, if any, defense in college. Can he defend in the NBA?
Jordan Hamilton, Texas: As a sophomore, Hamilton developed into one of the most dangerous scoring threats in the Big 12, when he was the focal point of the Longhorn offensive attack. But as a freshman, Hamilton was as much of a risk on the offensive end as he was a strength. Hamilton struggles with the term shot selection. His mindset is to score, score, score, and that hurt Texas at times when freshman Hamilton needed to take a backseat to Avery Bradley, Damion James, and Dexter Pittman. In the NBA, Hamilton will be playing a role more similar to the one he played as a freshman than the one he played as a sophomore. Can he handle being the third or fourth option offensively? And, like Brooks, Hamilton will be a liability on the defensive end. 
Chandler Parsons, Florida: At 6'10" with a three point stroke and the ability to handle the ball and create open shots for his teammates, Parsons is an intriguing prospect. There aren't many players in this draft class with his kind of versatility, skill set, and physical tools. The problem with Parsons is that while he does a lot well, he isn't great at anything. He doesn't have one skill that is NBA ready. The little things that he did on the court to help Florida win games aren't going to translate to the NBA. He seemingly got lost in the shuffle in college playing with Kenny Boynton and Erving Walker. What happens at the next level?
Iman Shumpert, Georgia Tech: On paper, Shumpert looks great. He is a 6'6" combo-guard with a massive wingspan, a 42" vertical, and the strength of a post player. He's also a player that averaged 5.0 apg as a freshman playing a secondary role and 17.3 ppg as a junior is a leading role. But anyone that watched Shumpert play can tell you, he struggles with his shot selection -- forcing far too many jumpers for a player that is a sub-par jump shooter -- and his decision making. He's also a player that played on three disappointing Georgia Tech teams, including one that got an NCAA Tournament bid despite a sub-.500 ACC record.
Klay Thompson, Washington State: There is no question about Thompson's ability to shoot the basketball. Simply put, he has range for days. Combine that stroke with his height (6'7"), his high-release point, and his ability to use off-ball screens to get open, and its no wonder that the son of Mychal Thompson was able to score in bunches at the college level. The problem is that, for the past two seasons, Thompson has seen his performance, specifically his efficiency, slip in Pac-10 play. If he struggled to handle the physicality of the Pac-10 -- the weakest of the six major conferences -- will he be able to handle defenders at the next level?
(And since no list is complete without one):
Bold Prediction: Kawhi Leonard, San Diego State: Leonard, like Alexander, is a physical specimen. He's a smooth player with a terrific motor who has a wingspan typically seen on seven-footers. He's much more athletic than the numbers he posted at the NBA Draft combine -- sitting out the drill work while waiting for 45 minutes in a cold gym is not a way to prepare to test your vertical. There are a lot of things that Leonard can do on a basketball court, but most of those traits -- his defense, his rebounding ability, his hustle -- are the result of those physical tools. Leonard is a power forward trapped in a small forward's body. If he doesn't develop his jumpshot and his ball handling ability, can he play on the perimeter in the NBA?
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Wednesday, June 22, 2011
Five first round picks that won't get a second NBA contract |
Friday, June 17, 2011
NBA Draft Profiles: Kawhi Leonard, San Diego State |
Bjorn Zetterberg of SwishScout.com will be helping us out with all of our NBA Draft Profiles this year. You can follow him on twitter @swishscout.
To browse through the latest prospect profiles, click here. To see a complete list of the players we have profiled, click here.
Stats: 15.5 ppg, 10.6 rpg, 1.4 spg, 2.5 apg
Age: 19, sophomore
Size:
- Listed: 6'7", 225 lb
- Official: 6'6" (no shoes), 6'7" (with shoes), 7'3" (wingspan), 8'10" (reach), 227 lb
Strengths: The first thing that anyone talks about when bringing up Leonard is the length of his arms. His wingspan is 7'3", which is exactly the same length as Tyson Chandler's wingspan. That length allows Leonard to have a significant impact on the game without having the ball in his hands. For starters, he's a terrific rebounder, averaging a double-double and over three offensive boards per game. Leonard is also a terrific on-ball defender. He's got quick feet, he's athletic, he has the desire to shut down his man one-on-one, and he has the arms to disrupt the offense. Most importantly, Leonard is a hand-working, blue-collar player. He flies in for rebounds, he dives on the floor for loose balls, and he gives up his body defensively. Offensively, however, his skill set is developing. What Leonard does do well for his size is handle the ball and pass the ball, showing the potential to be a versatile playmaker down the road.
Weaknesses: Leonard is fairly raw offensively. His jump shot is the aspect of his game that needs the most improvement. He's already been working hard on that aspect of his game, however, proving to be a better than expected shooter in his workouts. That is a good sign for his potential in the long term. Beyond that, the rest of his offensive repertoire is more-or-less a work in progress. He doesn't have the handle of a point guard, but it has improved significantly since his freshman season to the point that he would grab a defensive rebound and lead the break as a sophomore. His post game is solid as well, as he has god footwork and is quick on the block. Perhaps the most shocking part about Leonard's game is that he did not test out as a great athlete, something that surprised quite a few people. He had just a 32" max vert and was a step slower than expected. There is an explanation for that. For starters, Leonard has always been considered more of a smooth athlete than an explosive athlete. He also sat out of the drills session during the combine, having to go and do his athletic testing after sitting for 45 minutes in a cold gym.
Comparisons:
- Best Case Scenario: Shawn Marion and Gerald Wallace are the two guys that Leonard gets compared to the most. Since Leonard is so young and so raw offensively, its tough to predict whether he will end up mre perimeter oriented like Marion or more of a blue-collar scrapper like Wallace. Whatever the case, Leonard should be able to be a guy that can change the rhythm of a game without have to score a point.
- Worst Case Scenario: Luc Richard Mbah a Moute. Mbah a Moute gets solid minutes in the NBA, but its as nothing more than a role player. He does some defending, he rebounds the ball, and he'll dive on the floor. But beyond that, he doesn't have much impact on the offensive end of the floor. If Leonard's offensive game doesn't advance, that is the kind of player he is going to end up being.
Draft Range: Mid to Late Lottery
And the experts say...
- Chad Ford: "Last year we had Leonard listed as a sleeper. Now that he plays on the No. 6 team in the country, that sort of talk has died down. But now the expectations may be almost too high for him. He's still developing his game offensively, but when you watch him, it's hard not to see what makes him special. NBA scouts love guys with intangibles, and Leonard appears to have them."
- Draft Express: "The ideal setting for Leonard as a rookie would likely be one next to a slew of shooters who can push tempo and score one-on-one. Though he may not have the tools to be an high-level option from day one on the NBA-level, his ability to get up the floor, crash the glass, and do a little bit of everything would fit well on a team with a defined offensive hierarchy in their backcourt. He has the tools to excel in a fast break oriented system that would allow him to get out and run, something he didn't get a chance to do all that regularly in the NCAA on a San Diego State team that ranked 301 of 345 in terms of the tempo they played at."
- Swish Scout: "Leonard is a very intelligent player who is an excellent rebounder, passer, and playmaker who propels his team with high energy. The biggest gift and curse to his game is his enormous hands, which greatly contribute to his rebounding prowess, but will always inhibit his shooting abilities."
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Tuesday, April 26, 2011
Who made the right early entry decision?: Renardo Sidney will be back for another season |
Renardo Sidney is the stereotypical one-and-done prospect.
His family moved from Mississippi to LA when he was 15 years old so they could capitalize off of the hype Sidney produced with impressive performance after impressive performance. He was a product of the summer, making his name on the AAU circuit and ABCD camp and infamously telling the Washington Post high school ball is "not that important". His father was employed by Reebok while coaching Sidney's Reebok sponsored AAU team. He was turned down by both UCLA and USC before enrolling at Mississippi State. After sitting out for a year due to illegal benefits that he received while in high school, Sidney tweeted "NYC #2011 Believe Dat" last summer despite still having to sit out nine more games.
It only made sense that Sidney would bolt for the NBA at the first opportunity.
Which why its a mild surprise that Sunday's early entry deadline came and went and Sidney's name was not entered, living up to the promise he made on facebook back in March.
Sidney needs another year in school. Right now, the only thing worse than his reputation as a basketball player is his reputation as a person and a teammate. Sidney was twice suspended for fighting with a teammate (one of those times came in the stands during an ESPN telecast) and was largely ineffective for much of the season due to the fact that he was completely out of shape and lacked the desire to a) change that fact and b) give consistent effort when he did have energy.
While most of the focus on a basketball player's time in college is on his development as a player, its also true that these players develop and mature as people. That is why Sidney needs another year in school. He needs to learn how to be a man. How to be a professional.
Derrick Caracter agrees.
The first step in that process? Making the choice to come back for another year at Mississippi State.
Who else made the right early entry decision? (Looking past the Kemba Walkers and Derrick Williams' of the world)
Knight is likely going to be a top ten pick in this draft after averaging over 17 points and four assists per game and proving that he had the ability to perform in the clutch in the tournament. But if Knight had returned to school, he likely would have been forced to, at the least, split the point guard duties; most believe that Marquis Teague would have started over him.
Lamb was a breakout performer in March. The 6'5" guard with the wingspan of a pterodactyl developed the aggression and the confidence to be a serious scoring threat for the Huskies in the Big East and NCAA Tournaments. But the lack of consistency during the season and a frail frame put doubt into some NBA GM's minds. With Kemba Walker going pro, Lamb will have a chance to prove his mettle as the Huskie's offensive focal point.
Leonard might be the best physical specimen in this draft class. He's 6'7" with big hands, long arms, and terrific athleticism and explosiveness. He's relentless on the offensive glass and is a very good defender, both on the perimeter and in the paint. But Leonard's offensive repertoire has a ways to go. He can develop that in the NBA with a guaranteed contract as a lottery pick locked up. Coming back, especially considering the drop off in talent for the Aztecs next season, Leonard risked exposing his faults.
Robinson is a terrific prospect based on his size (6'9"), strength, and athleticism. The only thing missing in that equation is consistent production. He was impressive in the short time that he was on the floor, but on the season Robinson only managed to average 7.6 ppg and 6.4 rpg. Coming back for another season with both of The Morrii off in the NBA, Robinson will have a chance to prove what he can do as the go-to option in the post.
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Monday, April 18, 2011
Can Steve Fisher sustain the success he had at San Diego State this season? |
One of the great plot lines from the 2010-2011 college basketball season was that the Mountain West Conference, in the final season in its current form, was able to produce two of the top ten teams in the country in BYU and SDSU.
BYU, led by America's Sweetheart Jimmer Fredette, more or less stole the attention and dominated the MWC-related headlines throughout the season.
But the better story was San Diego State. Led by Steve Fisher, the former Michigan head coach that took the blame for the scandal involving the Fab Five, the Aztecs had, for the first time in school history, become relevant as a basketball program. Prior to this season, San Diego State had sold out just eight games. Ever. As in all-time, in the history of the program. Eight games.
This season?
The student section that has dubbed themselves "The Show" would be waiting in line before dawn on game days to ensure a ticket to the game. That is a major shift in fan attitude, and it was all the result of the powerhouse that the Aztecs put on the floor last season.
But can it last? Can the Aztecs become a powerhouse west coast program, or will SDSU end up being just another one year flash-in-the-pan?
Graduation doesn't do the Aztecs any favors. DJ Gay, Malcolm Thomas, and Billy White have all used up their eligibility. Unless Brian Carlwell applies for and receives a medicla hardship waiver, he will also be gone. And on Friday, word came out that Kawhi Leonard would be entering the NBA Draft and foregoing his final two years of eligibility.
"We talked about where we thought I would be selected in the draft," Leonard said in a statement. "Coach Fisher gave me great advice and helped me with my decision that I should move forward with the process. This is very exciting. I have been preparing my whole life to play in the NBA and now I will have that chance."
Its the correct decision. The athletic, versatile Leonard will likely slide into the back end of the lottery with the amount of talent that decided to withdraw their name from the draft pool. His stock won't get much higher after he lead the Aztecs in scoring, rebounding, and to a Sweet 16. If he did opt to return and he didn't show a major jump in skill level, his standing on NBA Draft boards would have dropped with the amount of talent at the top of the 2012 draft.
Leonard may not even be the most devastating loss for the SDSU program. Justin Hutson, SDSU's lead recruiter and the guy that brought Leonard -- the California state player of the year -- to the MWC, has left to take an assistant's position with new UNLV head coach Dave Rice. If the Aztecs wanted to sustain their success on the court, they needed to capitalize on that success off the court by maximizing their newfound notoriety. They needed to use this Sweet 16 trip to land a couple of a high-level recruits, and that won't be easy when your recruiting coordinator leaves to take a new job.
Steve Fisher is left with a fairly empty cupboard as he tries to carry-on the momentum from back-to-back tournament berths.
Juniors Chase Tapley and James Rahon return in the back court. Freshman Jamaal Franklin showed some promise on the wing last season, while fellow freshman LaBradford Franklin looks to be the guy that will take over the point guard role. Throw is Washington State-transfer Xavier Thames, and Fisher has some pieces in his back court.
The bigger question mark will be in the front court. If Brian Carlwell doesn't return, it means that the Aztecs will have to rely on JuCo transfer DeShawn Stephens, Loyola Marymount transfer Kevin Young, seldom-used junior-to-be Alec Williams, and injury-prone Tim Shelton. Fisher missed on one of the best big men in the class of 2011 when 6'11" Kevin Johnson signed with Seton Hall last week.
It will be tough for any program -- let alone one with the (lack of) basketball tradition that SDSU has -- to sustain the kind of success the Aztec's had last season. They were a talented, experienced team that got their spark from a lottery pick that slipped through the recruiting cracks.
No one is expecting Fisher to produce another top ten team in 2011-2012.
But he's already turned a program that hadn't won an NCAA Tournament game in their history into a No. 2 seed. He may be able to do it again, but it will take some time.
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