Monday, April 18, 2011

Can Steve Fisher sustain the success he had at San Diego State this season?

One of the great plot lines from the 2010-2011 college basketball season was that the Mountain West Conference, in the final season in its current form, was able to produce two of the top ten teams in the country in BYU and SDSU.

BYU, led by America's Sweetheart Jimmer Fredette, more or less stole the attention and dominated the MWC-related headlines throughout the season.

But the better story was San Diego State. Led by Steve Fisher, the former Michigan head coach that took the blame for the scandal involving the Fab Five, the Aztecs had, for the first time in school history, become relevant as a basketball program. Prior to this season, San Diego State had sold out just eight games. Ever. As in all-time, in the history of the program. Eight games.

This season?


The student section that has dubbed themselves "The Show" would be waiting in line before dawn on game days to ensure a ticket to the game. That is a major shift in fan attitude, and it was all the result of the powerhouse that the Aztecs put on the floor last season.

But can it last? Can the Aztecs become a powerhouse west coast program, or will SDSU end up being just another one year flash-in-the-pan?

Graduation doesn't do the Aztecs any favors. DJ Gay, Malcolm Thomas, and Billy White have all used up their eligibility. Unless Brian Carlwell applies for and receives a medicla hardship waiver, he will also be gone. And on Friday, word came out that Kawhi Leonard would be entering the NBA Draft and foregoing his final two years of eligibility.

"We talked about where we thought I would be selected in the draft," Leonard said in a statement. "Coach Fisher gave me great advice and helped me with my decision that I should move forward with the process. This is very exciting. I have been preparing my whole life to play in the NBA and now I will have that chance."

Its the correct decision. The athletic, versatile Leonard will likely slide into the back end of the lottery with the amount of talent that decided to withdraw their name from the draft pool. His stock won't get much higher after he lead the Aztecs in scoring, rebounding, and to a Sweet 16. If he did opt to return and he didn't show a major jump in skill level, his standing on NBA Draft boards would have dropped with the amount of talent at the top of the 2012 draft.

Leonard may not even be the most devastating loss for the SDSU program. Justin Hutson, SDSU's lead recruiter and the guy that brought Leonard -- the California state player of the year -- to the MWC, has left to take an assistant's position with new UNLV head coach Dave Rice. If the Aztecs wanted to sustain their success on the court, they needed to capitalize on that success off the court by maximizing their newfound notoriety. They needed to use this Sweet 16 trip to land a couple of a high-level recruits, and that won't be easy when your recruiting coordinator leaves to take a new job.

Steve Fisher is left with a fairly empty cupboard as he tries to carry-on the momentum from back-to-back tournament berths.

Juniors Chase Tapley and James Rahon return in the back court. Freshman Jamaal Franklin showed some promise on the wing last season, while fellow freshman LaBradford Franklin looks to be the guy that will take over the point guard role. Throw is Washington State-transfer Xavier Thames, and Fisher has some pieces in his back court.

The bigger question mark will be in the front court. If Brian Carlwell doesn't return, it means that the Aztecs will have to rely on JuCo transfer DeShawn Stephens, Loyola Marymount transfer Kevin Young, seldom-used junior-to-be Alec Williams, and injury-prone Tim Shelton. Fisher missed on one of the best big men in the class of 2011 when 6'11" Kevin Johnson signed with Seton Hall last week.

It will be tough for any program -- let alone one with the (lack of) basketball tradition that SDSU has -- to sustain the kind of success the Aztec's had last season. They were a talented, experienced team that got their spark from a lottery pick that slipped through the recruiting cracks.

No one is expecting Fisher to produce another top ten team in 2011-2012.

But he's already turned a program that hadn't won an NCAA Tournament game in their history into a No. 2 seed. He may be able to do it again, but it will take some time.

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