Favorite: Kentucky Wildcats
Its hard to believe it, but the Wildcats may actually be a better team this season than they were last year, and last year they were a No. 1 seed, reached the Elite 8, and sent five players to the first round of the NBA Draft. While some will say it is a result of Brandon Knight, Doron Lamb, and particularly Terrence Jones living up to the hype they had coming in, the real reason that Kentucky is morphing into a legitimate contender for a No. 1 seed again this March is the play of Josh Harrellson and DeAndre Liggins. Harrellson is turning into this year's Brian Zoubek, an unheralded senior center that develops into a monster on the glass and around the rim defensively. He's already averaging 9.4 rpg (4.0 offensively and a 17.0 OR%) and 1.6 bpg, and the past three games he's scored in double figures. Liggins has become a stopper defensively, capable of guarding multiple positions on the floor. Calipari's rotation really only goes about seven deep at most, but those six or seven guys know there roles and understand where their shots are supposed to come from, which is why they are playing as well as anyone in the country right now.
Player of the Year: Brandon Knight, Kentucky
If its not Brandon Knight, its probably Terrence Jones. But seeing as I've already waxed poetic about Kentucky, let's talk about Trey Thompkins here. Thompkins is flying a bit under the radar right now considering he is averaging 17.4 ppg and 7.1 rpg. Why? Because they aren't exactly the numbers we expected this season. That, in large part, is due to the ankle injury Thompkins suffered before the season even started. He missed the first three games of the season, then labored through the Old Spice Classic, scoring just 13 points against both Notre Dame (in double overtime) and Temple. Since that trip to Orlando, however, Thompkins has played well against Georgia's best competition. He had 20 points and 9 boards in a two point win over UAB. He had 21 points and 6 boards (and a very strong second half) in a 73-72 win at Georgia Tech. More recently, on New Year's Eve, Thompkins had his best game of the season with 26 points and 7 boards. Next up? Kentucky. On Saturday. I think this young man is ready for league play.
All-Conference Team:
Biggest Surprise: Tennessee Volunteers
This is what we call hitting both ends of the spectrum. The Vols started out the season so well, picking up wins against Villanova and Pitt and climbing all the way up to No. 7 in the polls. Then something happened. Depending on where you look or who you ask, the Vols stopped playing defense the way then can, they stopped getting the ball inside, they stopped attacking the basket, and/or Scotty Hopson stopped being a leader. Whatever the case, Tennessee has been terrible lately, losing four of their last six (to Oakland, Charlotte, USC, and Charleston) while barely hanging on to beat Belmont and UT-Martin. With the SEC season looming and Bruce Pear's suspension coming up, we may not have hit bottom yet. I can't remember the last time I saw a swing this drastic happen this quickly.
Biggest Disappointment: The SEC West
Its a joke. It really is. Alabama (Alabama?!?) is the highest rated team in Kenpom's projections. They are 8-6. The team that was supposed to be the favorite, Mississippi State, is losing players left and right and just sold any ounce of good will they had left nationally when rick Stansbury decided to allow Renardo Sidney back on the team. Ole Miss had that happen over the summer, when Murphy Holloway and Eniel Polynice both packed their bags. Overall, the division's record is 52-32. As of this moment, Kenpom is predicting the SEC West to go 6-30 against the SEC East this season. Just for fun, here's a list of some of the team's that a member of SEC West has lost to this season:UNC-Asheville, Samford, Campbell, Jacksonville, Presbyterian, St. Peter's, Nicholl's State, Coastal Carolina, North Texas, Florida Atlantic, East Tennessee State, Rice, Wichita State, Hawaii, Colorado State, UAB, Iowa, Miami FL, UVa, Rutgers, South Florida
That is nothing short of atrocious.
Teams to keep an eye on:
Teams to write off:
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Wednesday, January 5, 2011
Conference Play Primer: The SEC |
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Labels: Brandon Knight, Conference Play Primer, Georgia, Kentucky, SEC, Tennessee, Terrence Jones, Trey Thompkins
Thursday, December 30, 2010
Conference Play Primer: The Big XII |
Favorite: Kansas Jayhawks
Much like the ACC and the Big Ten, the favorite in the Big XII is pretty easy to identify. That isn't because Kansas has been blowing their opponents away. In fact, it has been quite the opposite. The Jayhawks struggled to beat both UCLA and USC at home, needed a spark from a near brawl at Cal to finally put the Bears away, and were unable to put away teams like Memphis, Arizona, Colorado State, and Texas-Arlington when they jumped out to early leads. But the talent on this roster is undeniable, and that was before Josh Selby joined the team in mid-December. This team still has a way to go in terms of maturity and meshing and learning to play together, and I think they may actually be better with Thomas Robinson (who didn't start until Marcus Morris was benched after his ejection against Cal) providing a physical low post presence alongside one of the Morrii, but they will get there. And once they do, we are going to hear a lot of talk about Duke, Ohio State, and Kansas being the nation's three best teams.
Player of the Year: Jordan Hamilton, Texas
Hamilton has improved so much since his freshman season, averaging a league-high (until LaceDarius Dunn logs enough games to be eligible) 19.5 ppg and 7.3 rpg while shooting 42.3% from deep. He's still a gunner. That is not ever going to change. Hamilton was made to score points. But he's become much better at knowing what is a good shot and what is a bad shot. He's still a bit of a streaky shooter, but now his off games are 6-15 nights, not 2-15 nights. The Longhorns are a legitimate contender in the Big XII, and quite possibly the second best team in the league. With a freshman starting at the point and at center, Hamilton has been forced into the leadership role for this team, and he has embraced it. Texas fans should enjoy it while it lasts, because this kid is well on his way to the NBA Lottery.
All-Conference Team:
Biggest Surprise: Texas A&M Aggies
I don't want to say that I wrote off the Aggies in the preseason, because it isn't true at all. I thought this team at a shot of playing their way onto the bubble. But with the number of quality seniors that were graduating, I never expected Mark Turgeon to have this team on the verge of the top 25 this early in the season, especially not after they lost to Boston College early in the season. But with that BC loss looking better (Less bad? More acceptable?) and subsequent wins over Temple, Washington, and Arkansas, the Aggies look like they round out the top six in a talented Big XII conference. The biggest reason why has been the emergence of 6'6" forward Khris Middleton has a potential first team all-conference performer. He's averaging 15.4 ppg on the season, which combined with David Loubeau and Nathan Walkup has given the Aggies a very good front court. Turgeon's next task? Getting senoir point guard Dash Harris's shooting percentage up over 22.8%.
Biggest Disappointment: Kansas State Wildcats
The Wildcats were supposed to be one of the best teams in the country this season. They were supposed to be competing for the Final Four come March. Right now, they don't even look like a team that can finish in the top four of the Big XII. This team is talented, but size and athleticism will only get you so far. Jacob Pullen is the only player on this team that can really create his own shot, and he has not been able to find a rhythm yet this season. The same might be able to be said about Curtis Kelly, but Kelly is dealing with his second suspension of the season right now while Pullen will be returning from this three game suspension the next time K-State takes the court. Frank Martin's club plays hard and physical, but without senior leadership, this team far too often looks like they don't have any direction. What's worse is that this team's flaws look very difficult to solve. K-State may just be a middle of the pack Big XII team this season.
Teams to keep in mind:
Teams to forget about:
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Labels: Big XII, Conference Play Primer, Jordan Hamilton, Kansas, Kansas State, Missouri, Texas, Texas AM
Wednesday, December 29, 2010
Conference Play Primer: The Pac-10 |
Favorite: Washington Huskies
Washington has dropped out of the national top 25. Part of the reason for that is U-Dub once again has started the season slowly, going 8-3 in non-conference play without a marquee win, unless you consider beating Texas Tech or Virginia a marquee win. That said, Washington doesn't have a bad loss year, either. They lost close games to Kentucky and Michigan State in the Maui Invitational before losing by one to Texas A&M, who has climbed all the way into the top 25, on the road. Its enough that Kenpom has the Huskies sitting pretty at fifth in the country. It generally isn't a good idea to argue with Kenpom, either. Washington is deep -- ten guys average at least 13.0 mpg and no one plays more than 27.0 mpg -- and they are balanced -- all ten of those players average at least 5.4 ppg. They have athletes, they have shooters, they have playmakers, and they have defenders. You know about Isaiah Thomas and Matthew Bryan-Amaning, so I'm going to mention Justin Holiday, Jrue's brother, who has been great thus far in his senior season. He's averaging 12.5 ppg and 6.2 rpg and has been just as good as Venoy Overton on the defensive end of the floor.
Player of the Year: Derrick Williams, Arizona
With all due respect going to Klay Thompson of Washington State, Williams is my early season pick for Pac-10 player of the year. It isn't just because of the numbers he puts up. Williams averages 19.7 ppg and 7.0 rpg while scoring at an insanely high efficiency -- he averages more than two points per shot attempt, as he is knocking down 63.2% from the floor and 68.4% from three. Its the fact that he is putting up these numbers without a true point guard on the floor with him. Williams is much improved at getting his own shot. At 6'8", he has enough athleticism and quickness that he will likely be a combo-forward in the NBA, but his perimeter skills are still dragging a bit behind his tools. He's improved -- his three point shooting percentage proves that, and he was also become adept at driving left from the perimeter -- but he's still a guy that would benefit from a point guard that could get him the ball in better spots to score. Thompson's numbers are better, but so is his supporting cast.
All-Conference Team
Biggest Surprise: Washington State
The Cougars finished in last place in the Pac-10 in 2010. Dead last in a conference that many considered to be one of the worst of the decade. With their core basically intact this season, most expected an improvement out of Wazzu, but I doubt many people expected them to become a legitimate contender for the conference crown, a potential tournament team, and a group that is on the edge of cracking the top 25. There are still some concerns that I have -- DeAngelo Casto still isn't much more than a dunker and is a bit of a hot head, Klay Thompson and Faisal Aden are both a bit soft, they don't have much quality depth. Having said that, Thompson's performance in the Diamond Head Classic should help rid him of the "soft" label, and Reggie Moore's return from injury has given this group a big boost. There are not many teams in the country with a perimeter as good as Wazzu's.
Biggest Disappointment: UCLA Bruins
Simply put, there is too much talent on this team for Ben Howland's club to be struggling like this. Their front line, on paper, looks as good as anyone in the country. Joshua Smith is a force on the block when he decides to be, Reeves Nelson is a blue-collar forward that has improved this season, and Tyler Honeycutt has the tools to be a first round pick. Malcolm Lee and Jerime Anderson are blue-chip recruits. Zeke Jones, Tyler Lamb, and Brendan Lane are all capable players. So why the struggles? This team doesn't defend the way Ben Howland teams should defend. Jones and Anderson -- and the entire back court, for that matter -- have a habit of making the wrong decision in critical junctures. They don't get up for games against lesser competition -- UCLA nearly beat Kansas on the road, then lost to Montana at home, beat BYU, then nearly lost to Montana State and UC Irvine. Can we pin all of that on leadership? Who knows, but with the talent UCLA has, they should be a Pac-10 favorite. Few outside of Westwood currently believe that.
Teams to keep an eye on:
Teams to forget about:
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Labels: Arizona, Conference Play Primer, Derrick Williams, Isaiah Thomas, Klay Thompson, Pac-10, UCLA, USC, Washington, Washington State
Tuesday, December 28, 2010
Conference Play Primer: The Big Ten |
Favorite: Ohio State
The favorite in the Big Ten is pretty easy to identify right now. Ohio State is playing as well as anyone in the country -- in fact, they overtook Duke as the No. 1 team in Kenpom's rankings. Offensively, this group is terrific. Their offense is based around the play of Jared Sullinger, the freshman big man that is on the short list for first team all-american. He's a bully on the block that plays with the strength and the savvy of a veteran. Its not just Sullinger, however. David Lighty, William Buford, and Jon Diebler are all capable of going off for 25 points if the situation calls for it. Dallas Lauderdale blocks shots, Aaron Craft has proven to be a solid point guard as a freshman, and DeShaun Thomas is instant offense coming off of the bench. The thing that is so impressive about this team, however, is that every player understands and has bought into their role. The Buckeyes are going to be a tough team to beat.
Player of the Year: Jared Sullinger, Ohio State
The a Player of the Year thus far is probably Sullinger, but seeing as I just talked about the Buckeyes, let's mix it up a bit, eh? Northwestern's John Shurna has been terrific this season. He's averaging 23.3 ppg, 5.3 rpg, and 3.4 apg. (Those numbers would be better if he didn't miss half of Northwestern's last game against Mt. St. Mary's with an ankle injury.) He's shooting 61.1% from the field and an absurd 62.3% from three, taking more than five per game. He's a huge reason that the Wildcats have gotten off to this 9-1 start. The problem? Northwestern still hasn't beaten anybody. This is a program that has never made the NCAA Tournament, and with guys like Michael Thompson and Drew Crawford around Shurna, this may be the year. We will get a real feel for the legitness (I know that's not a word, but it should be) of Northwestern after their first three Big Ten games -- at Purdue, home for Michigan State, at Illinois.
All-Conference Team:
Biggest Surprise: Minnesota Golden Gophers
Minnesota had a bit of hype coming into the season, but not enough to warrant much consideration nationally for the top 25. Boy, did we miss on that. The Gophers blew through the Puerto Rico Tip-Off and, at one point in the season, climbed all the way into the top ten. The biggest reason has been the addition of Trevor Mbakwe, a strong, athletic power forward that is a perfect complement to Ralph Sampson and Colton Iverson, as he is averaging 13.3 ppg and 9.8 rpg on the season. Minnesota hit a rough patch in December, dropping a home game to Virginia, as they dealt with their starting point guard Al Nolen, their best perimeter defender and distributor, sitting out. With Nolen in the lineup, and guys like Blake Hoffarber and Rodney Williams having good seasons on the wing, this team can compete with anyone in the conference.
Biggest Disappointment: Michigan State Spartans
The Spartans are currently 8-4 on the season. Not a great start, especially by a team that was considered Duke's biggest challenger in the preseason. MSU has a bad habit of starting a season out slowly, and all of their four losses have come to teams currently ranked in the top 13 nationally. The bigger issue, however, is how the Spartans have looked in those losses. They are not playing like typical Tom Izzo clubs. Their defense is not where it needs to be and they aren't competing on the glass like we've come to expect out of Sparty. I have complete faith that Izzo will turn this thing around. There is just too much talent on that roster not too.
Teams to keep an eye on:
Teams to forget about:
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Rob Dauster
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Labels: Big Ten, Conference Play Primer, Illinois, JaJuan Johnson, Jared Sullinger, John Shurna, Jon Leuer, Minnesota, Northwestern, Ohio State, Purdue, Wisconsin
Conference Play Primer: The ACC |
Favorite: Duke Blue Devils
I'm not expecting too much of an argument on that one. Not only is Duke the No. 1 team in the country right now -- even without Kyrie Irving -- but the rest of the ACC has been just pitiful. People are legitimately discussing whether or not Duke has a chance to go undefeated this season, and I guarantee that there are more people that think Duke won't lose a game than think the Blue Devils won't win the ACC.
Player of the Year: Reggie Jackson, Boston College
There are a number of legitimate Player of the Year options in the ACC at this point in the season, but I'm going with Jackson. He's second in the conference in both scoring (19.2) and assists (5.0) while grabbing 4.4 rpg and shooting an obscene 50.9% from three. He's also been the catalyst in BC's resurgence under Steve Donahue, carrying the team to a 10-2 mark here early in the season, which includes a win on the road against Maryland in their ACC opener. As crazy as it may sound, BC might just be the second best team in the ACC. And Reggie Jackson is the reason why.
All-Conference Team:
Biggest Surprise: Virginia Tech Hokies
Boston College has probably been the only team in the conference that has been a surprise in a positive way. Since I don't want to talk about the Eagles, I'll go the other direction. This was supposed to be Virginia Tech's year to breakthrough. With senior Malcolm Delaney leading this way, the Hokie's were going to have the supporting cast around the ACC Player of the Year as they gave Duke a run for their money atop the conference. That was the plan, anyway. Then Allan Chaney had a heart condition discovered, JT Thompson tore his acl, and Virginia Tech struggled through the non-conference portion of their schedule before finding out that Dorenzo Hudson, last year's leading scorer, would miss the rest of the season due to injury. Without a quality win, and with very few quality wins available in the ACC this year, it looks as if the Hokies will once again miss the NCAA Tournament.
Biggest Disappointment: Harrison Barnes
Since I'm not going to simply answer "the conference as a whole" (because that would be too correct accurate easy), I'll go with Barnes. Barnes has been far from bad this season. He is the Tar Heel's second leading scorer at 12.3 ppg, which, as an incoming freshman, is commendable. The problem is that with the hype bestowed upon this young man this season, "commendable" is not good enough. Barnes was named CBSSports.com preseason national Player of the Year and became the first freshman to ever be named an AP Preseason All-American. Its not his fault that he had this much hype coming in, but he certainly hasn't lived up to those expectations. Its not an issue of talent, it seems more to be an issue of confidence. Barnes is not playing as aggressive as many expected him to, and he certainly isn't shooting the ball all that well. There is still time for him to turn things around. Personally, I'm hoping he will; Barnes seems like a genuinely good kid.
Teams to keep an eye on:
Teams to forget about:
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Posted by
Rob Dauster
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10:34 AM
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Labels: ACC, Boston College, Conference Play Primer, Duke, Harrison Barnes, Malcolm Delaney, Maryland, Miami, Reggie Jackson, UNC, Virginia Tech
Monday, December 27, 2010
Conference Play Primer: The Big East |
Favorite: Georgetown Hoyas
Coming into the season, Pitt and Villanova were the two teams everyone expected to be competing for the Big East title. While that hasn't exactly changed in the last two months, in this blogger's humble opinion the best team in the Big East is Georgetown. The Hoyas are an experienced team led by the best back court in the country in Austin Freeman, Chris Wright, and Jason Clark. Their front court has been better than expected, especially junior Henry Sims, who has developed into a homeless man's Greg Monroe. (The old Henry Sims was a homeless man's version of the new Henry Sims, so that last sentence should be taken as a complement.) They defend, they run a disciplined offense, and John Thompson III has allowed this team to take advantage of their guards and play at a faster pace this season. No team in the country has a better resume than the Hoyas do right now, as this team has emerged as a Final Four favorite seemingly out of nowhere. You aren't supposed to get better when you lose a lottery pick to early entry.
Player of the Year: Kemba Walker, UConn
This is obvious, isn't it? Walker has posted ridiculous numbers (26.5 ppg, 4.0 apg, 4.8 rpg, 2.1 spg, 42.1% 3PT) and carried an extremely young UConn team to a Maui Invitational title and a No. 4 ranking nationally. This team was picked 10th in the league to start the season and is now legitimately being discussed as a conference contender, and it is almost all a result of Walker's play.
All-Conference Team:
Biggest Surprise: Cincinnati Bearcats
UConn is the biggest surprise of the season, but we've already talked about the Huskies here. And with Cincinnati on the brink of being one of just eight teams nationally to head into the new year undefeated, they deserve mention here. To be fair, Cincinnati hasn't exactly beaten anyone this season. Their 68-34 win over Dayton is nice, but it came at a time when the Flyers were playing some horrendous basketball. They also beat Oklahoma in Oklahoma, but the Sooners are no where near the same team as they were when Blake Griffin was in uniform. The Bearcats have been bolstered by better-than-expected play on their perimeter, led by Dion Dixon, Sean Kilpatrick, and Cashmere Wright. I'm reserving judgement on this team until after they are truly tested -- which will come early in Big East play -- but this start by Cinci deserves some praise. Also deserving mention here are the Louisville Cardinals and Providence Friars.
Biggest Disappointment: Villanova's back court
Corey Fisher was supposed to be the heir apparent to Scottie Fisher as Villanova's leading man. Maalik Wayns was supposed to be the next Kyle Lowry. Combined, they are shooting just 38% from the floor and 22% from three. They are still compiling some impressive assist numbers, but the stats don't tell the whole story. Villanova has struggled this season with a lack of leadership. They have struggled to beat teams they should be blowing out, and they lost to Tennessee in Madison Square Garden in a game where both players disappeared down the stretch. That said, Nova has just the one loss this season, and Fisher did appear as if he turned a corner against Monmouth in Nova's last game. I like the roster make up of this Villanova team, always have, but until there is consistently great play coming out of Wayns and Fisher, the Wildcat's don't look like a team that can challenge for a Big East regular season title.
Teams to keep an eye on:
Teams to forget about:
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Labels: Austin Freeman, Big East, Cincinnati, Conference Play Primer, Corey Fisher, Georgetown, Kemba Walker, Maalik Wayns, UConn, Villanova
