Selection Sunday is Here! Our Last Minute Tournament Predictions

USC. Temple. Cleveland State. Mississippi State.

If your bubble bursts this weekend, chances one of these four teams is to blame. After the jump, our entire bubble breakdown. There is only one game with any bubble significance today, and that would be the SEC championship game. Tennessee is getting in the tournament. There is no doubt about that. But with the Bulldogs (ugly) win in the SEC championship, one more bubble team just had their tournament dreams ended.

As you know, The Big Lead, Rush The Court, College Hoops Journal, and myself are having a fight to the death friendly competition to see who can be the closest to picking the actual field for the dance. The bracket will be released at six.

Here is the breakdown (italics mean you are still alive in your conference tourney):

LOCKS:

• ACC: Florida State, UNC, Wake Forest, Boston College, Clemson (5)
  
• Big East: UConn, Pitt, Syracuse, West Virginia, Villanova, Marquette (6)
  
• Big Ten: Michigan State, Illinois, Ohio State/Purdue loser (3)
  
• Big XII: Oklahoma, Kansas, Oklahoma State, Texas, Texas A&M (5)
  
• Pac-10: Washington, Arizona State, UCLA, Cal (4)
  
• SEC: LSU, Tennessee (2)
  
• MWC: BYU (1)
  
• A-10: Xavier, Dayton (2)
  
• Others: Butler (1)

BUBBLE:

• ACC: Maryland (1)
• Big East: Providence (1)
• Big Ten: Wisconsin, Penn State, Michigan, Minnesota (4)
• Pac-10: Arizona (1)
• SEC: Florida, South Carolina, Auburn (3)
• MWC: San Diego State (1)
• Others: Creighton, St. Mary's (2)

So there it is. Those 13 teams are fighting for five spots. Here are my picks for those final bids:

Michigan: There are four Big Ten teams on the bubble, but methinks the Wolverines are in the best shape. They have an RPI of 40, mainly because they played one of the country's ten toughest schedules. Wins against UCLA and Duke highlight a tough non-conference schedule, and the Wolverines also picked up wins against Illinois and Minnesota (sweep) in Big Ten play. All told, Michigan was 6-9 against the top 50 and had nine top 100 wins.

Wisconsin: The Badgers have an RPI and SOS similar to that of Michigan, but there are some things the Badgers have going against them - like the fact that they lack out of conference victories with the same oomph. Yes, the Badgers swept Michigan, but they are 4-10 vs. the top 50 RPI. Their best out of conference win is Va. Tech. That said, I still think Wisconsin will be in today.

Maryland: How is this team different from Boston College? They have three very good wins (UNC, Wake, MSU) and two really bad losses (Morgan State, UVA). Yes their RPI is a bit lower, but they also played a tougher schedule. The biggest issue is their road record. But doesn't some of that concern get erased by two wins at a neutral court? As long as they don't lose to Duke by 40 again, the Terps should get in.

Minnesota: The Gophers are another one of those Big Ten teams that look pretty good to get in. They are a bit behind Wisconsin and Michigan at this point because they only played one real team in the non-conference, but it just so happens that team was Louisville, and the Gophers just so happened to beat them. Their RPI is better than either Wisconsin or Michigan, but they also played a weaker schedule. Again I think they are in, but behind the Wolverines and the Badgers.

Arizona: The Wildcats have a very strong resume. They have beaten Washington, Kansas, Gonzaga, San Diego State and UCLA. But they were 2-9 on the road and lost five of their last six. Those five losses, however, came against four tournament teams and Washington State, who was the hottest team out west in the last few weeks. Arizona is 6-10 against the top 50, and I just think that the Wildcats are the one team on the bubble that I would want to play the least if I was a five or six seed.

St. Mary's: St. Mary's would have been the team that got in if Mississippi State lost today. They are now 20-2 with Patty Mills in the line-up, which includes an ever-improving win over San Diego State. I was also very impressed when they beat Utah State without Mills. Again, their resume isn't going to show it, but the Gaels are one of the top 25-30 teams in the country with a healthy Patty Mills.


Who is out:

Penn State: Penn State played a weak non-conference schedule, I know that. But they beat six top 50 teams in conference play, finished 10-8 in a league that could get 8 teams in, and they won at Illinois and at Michigan State. It is hard for me to leave a team with those wins out, but Ed Dechellis scheduled his non-conference to make sure he was NIT eligible. Ironically, it will send him to the NIT.

Creighton: Creighton is tough this year. They have an RPI in the low 40's and shared the MVC regular season crown. What impresses me the most is their 18 point win against Dayton, their 9-5 record against the top 100, and their 8-4 record on the road. They also have two road losses (Arkansas Little-Rock and Nebraska) that came on last second shots early in the season. The Bluejays are probably the first team out after the Gaels, simply because their resume just doesn't stack up against the Arizona, who beat three top 25 conference champs out of conference.

South Carolina: Winning a share of the SEC East is nice, but it is akin to winning the MVC this year. South Carolina has beaten one top 50 team (#46 Florida) and just lost a game they really needed to win against Mississippi State.

Florida: The Gators were terrible on the road this year, going just 2-7. They were also just 2-6 against the RPI top 50, and they lost a game to an Auburn team that may be the hottest team in the country.

Auburn: No one is playing better than the Tigers right now, but just because they are playing well this month doesn't help them over come a poor season. They've only beaten two top 50 teams and five top 100 teams, and all of those came in the last month. In fact, 15 of their 21 wins are against teams outside the the top 100 and their best non conference wins are Virginia and Tulane.

San Diego State: The Aztecs drop out after losing the MWC finals to Utah. Looking at their resume compared to everyone else on the bubble, the Aztecs just don't have the wins against good teams. They only have two top 50 RPI wins, and both came in conference.

Just for fun, I'll take a stab at the top four seeds:

1's: Louisville (#1 overall), UNC, Pitt, Memphis
2's: UConn, Duke, Michigan State, Kansas
3's: Missouri, Wake Forest, Oklahoma, Syracuse
4's: Washington, Gonzaga, Xavier, Villanova