Strengths: The biggest asset that Harper has at his disposal is his jump shot. As a senior, he really burst onto the national scene, knocking down 44.8% of his threes -- a number that dropped late in the season -- and becoming one of the most efficient scorers in the nation. At 6'9", this makes Harper a weapon with a unique skill-set and an NBA-ready skill. Harper has NBA range and a quick release, making him an ideal pick-and-pop prospect, while he also can score in the mid-range and is effective squaring up on the perimeter. Harper is not a great post scorer, but he is improved around this basket. He has decent footwork and a nice touch, but is not physical enough on the block. Another factor that NBA teams will have to consider is that Harper is still young. He won't turn 22 until August 30th, and given his development throughout college, there is reason to believe that his work ethic will allow him to fulfill his potential. Weaknesses: NBA teams don't want power forwards that are going to be strictly jump shooters, and as of right now, that is all Harper does at an NBA level. He's not a great rebounder, especially on the offensive end of the floor, where he has a tendency to float on the perimeter instead of using his length and athleticism to attack the glass. He's not a great defender, either. He'll block some shots, but he will also get backed down by post fours and beaten off the dribble by quicker threes. He is the definition of a tweener; a guy with a perimeter skill-set and mind-set but without the quickness to play the spot. Some sites have said that Harper needs to add strength, but he already is strong, notching 19 reps on the bench at 185 lb. Adding some lower body strength could help that, but overall Harper just doesn't appear to be the kind of player that is going to bang in the post.
Comparisons:
Best Case Scenario: Channing Frye. Not much of a ‘banger’, but is sure deadly from deep range if he has space. Great size and some guard like play, but a predominant shooter and PF who can spread the floor in the NBA. Frye is a double-digit scorer that hits about 40% from deep. Harper is probably a better shooter than Frye.
Worst Case Scenario: Matt Bonner or Walter McCarty. Bonner doesn't get a ton of minutes for the Spurs, but when he does see the floor he understands and executes his role -- standing on the perimeter and knocking down threes. McCarty hung around the league for a while, but he was never really a starter and never truly filled his potential.
Outlook: Usually, when we are talking about 6'9" prospects with the shooting stroke of a two-guard, we are talking about the Euros. Its not all that common that a power forward with Harper's skill set is the product of American colleges. On one hand, that is a good thing. At his size with his athleticism, Harper has a very unique skill that is in demand in the NBA right now. Its a ball-screen league, and Harper would be very effective as a pick-and-pop forward. The issue is with what else he brings to the table. He's not a great defender, he's not a great rebounder, and he has a tendency of getting pushed around on the block. Its important to note that Harper is young for his class -- he doesn't turn 22 until August 30th -- and that he developed quite a bit while he was in college. That said, Harper's biggest weakness is his lack of physicality and toughness in the paint. Is that something that can be developed with time, or will Harper always be 'soft'?
Draft Range: Late 1st to Early 2nd
And the experts say...
Chad Ford: "The Good: Harper is a face-the-basket 4, who has been on fire from the 3-point line this season, shooting a red-hot 46 percent from 3. His length and athleticism are also big pluses at the next level. The Bad: He's fallen in love with the jumper and sometimes becomes a bit one-dimensional. For his size, he should be a better rebounder and shot-blocker. Some scouts think he's a bit on the soft side."
Draft Express: "Garnering zero draft buzz up until [this season], Harper is a bit of sleeper at this stage, and is well worth watching as the season continues. Not only is he a late bloomer, but he doesn't turn 22 until late September, giving him quite a bit more upside than your typical college senior. Players with his size, athleticism skill-set are difficult to come by, and if he can finish the season as strongly as he started, and ride that momentum into the pre-draft process, he'll definitely have a chance to hear his name called on draft night."
Swish Scout: "Finesse forward with a good basketball IQ and a money shooter from the midrange and NBA 3-point territory. Harper is 'soft' and doesn’t have much of a post game, making him more of a tweener forward and odd matchup on defense, but he’s weapon on the perimeter who can spread the floor."
For the third straight season, Vanderbilt has lost in the first round of the NCAA Tournament.
And for the third straight time, that loss came against a team with a double digit seed -- in 2008 it was No. 13 seed Siena, last year it was No. 13 Murray State, and this year it was No. 12 Richmond.
The Spiders were down for much of the first half and dug themselves a nine point hole midway through the second half, but Kevin Anderson scored nine of his 25 points -- hitting three of his four threes in succession in a 1:41 span -- to lead a 12-0 run that turned a 48-39 deficit into a 51-48 lead.
Vandy had their chances, but they simply couldn't execute down the stretch. The Commodores missed three free throws in the final minutes, turned the ball over with five seconds left with a chance to tie the game, and then failed to get a good look at the rim when down by three on the final possession of the game. There is something to be said for consistently getting a team to the NCAA Tournament, especially at a school like Vanderbilt where athletics aren't the only thing the school is concerned with.
But eventually, the fact that Kevin Stallings is failing to live up to expectations in the tournament is going to catch to him.
There is also an argument to be made that Stallings is not living up to the expectations of his team, period.
The Commodores have two players that could end up being lottery picks by the time they leave college in John Jenkins and Jeff Taylor. Fetsus Ezeli also has a chance to get drafted. They were all on last season's team that also included AJ Ogilvy (a second round pick) and Jermaine Beal (a first team all-SEC performer). Both teams lost in the first round.
Part of it is bad luck.
Richmond went 13-3 in the A-10, beat Purdue, and won their conference tournament. In a weak bubble year, most thought them better than a 12 seed. Murray State and Siena were both concerned one of, if not the, best low-major automatic bids in 2010 and 2008, respectively.
Vandy didn't lose to cupcakes.
But they still got upset in the first round of the tournament.
Again.
Sooner or later, that is going to catch up with Kevin Stallings. Continue reading...
Richmond may have just blown their chance at earning an at-large berth into the NCAA Tournament.
Their odds were long heading into last night's game at Temple, but beating top 25 teams on the road have a way of turning around a team's at-large chances. It looked like Richmond was primed to do just that, as the Spiders scored on their first five possessions of the game, taking a 10-6 lead with just 3:38 gone.
But over the next 11 minutes, Temple seized control of the game. The Owl's zone defense completely derailed any rhythm that Richmond had and Temple capitalized, going on a 22-6 run during that stretch. The Spiders eventually work their way back to within five, but once again the Owls put a big run on the Spiders. Temple scored on seven straight possession while holding Richmond scoreless, turning a 38-33 games into a 54-33 blowout. Richmond never made it interesting the rest of the way.
As usual, the Owls were impressive on the defensive end of the floor, allowing just 0.91 PPP -- a number that drops to 0.81 PPP when you factor out the first five possessions of the game. Ramone Moore had 24 points on 10-15 shooting while Juan Fernandez snapped out of his shooting slump with 20 points on 9-10 from the field.
For the Spiders, this is just another disappointing loss in a season full of them. Three weeks ago, the Spiders were run off of the court by Xavier, losing by 23 at home. They've lost to Iona, Bucknell, Old Dominion, Georgia Tech, and URI as well.
In fact, when you really look at their conference record, there is nothing impressive on it. They were blown out by the top two teams in the league, and they only play each of them once. They only play the fifth place team, Rhode Island, once and lost that game. Their only matchup with Duquesne doesn't come until the final day of the regular season.
The did win at Seton Hall and Arizona State, but unfortunately this has been a down year for both of those programs.
Last night's loss cost Richmond a chance to win the Atlantic 10's regular season title, and it put to bed any shot they had of earning an at-large bid.
It's true, some dunks look better when a player cocks the ball back behind his head and throws it down with raw tenacity. But there aren't many things more powerful than a massive two-handed slam. Put a defender or two in the way, and you've got yourself one mean posterization.
Richmond's Darrius Garrett did just that to some poor bloke from Dayton.
The speed at which these posterizations are coming in is out of this world right now.
Now, this isn't exactly a poster. Why? Because when a defender came over to try and block Richmond's Kevin Smith, he brought the ball down before going back up to dunk it. The result was damn near as good of a windmill as you are going to get when its done out of necessity, not flair.
Losses don't get much worse than the one that Richmond suffered at the hands of Bucknell on Sunday afternoon.
Despite missing seven of their eight free throw attempts in the final 2:58, the Spiders were able to fight their way back from a five point deficit to take a 61-60 lead. But Kevin Anderson missed a pair of free throws with 2.3 seconds left, giving Bucknell one last chance.
The Bison called a timeout, drew up a play, and prayed. And, well, it worked. Check it out:
This view is even better:
Joe Willman threw the pass and Mike Muscala made the catch and the shot.
This is a bad loss for Richmond, who looks like they are actually missing David Gonzalvez more than we originally thought. The Spiders are now 11-4 on the season. They've lost to Iona, Georgia Tech, and now Bucknell. The only reason that they are still in the conversation when it comes to the NCAA Tournament is a win they picked up over Purdue in Chicago. Continue reading...
So we've already tipped you off to all 20 of the game to watch during the Tip-Off Marathon. But there is more good basketball to be played tonight. Here's what else you need to pay attention too:
7:00 pm: Wofford @ Clemson: Wofford may have lost to Minnesota by 14 on Friday, but don't sleep on this team. They are one of the best mid-majors team in the country, led by forward Noah Dahlmann. Clemson has more athletes that the Terriers, and it will also be interesting as I will be getting my first glimpse at the post-Purnell Tigers. 7:00 pm: Oakland @ Ohio: Two of the best mid-major players in the country will be taking part in this game -- center Keith Benson of Oakland, and point guard DJ Cooper of Ohio.
7:00 pm: William & Mary @ Richmond: Richmond will be in the running for the A-10 regular season title, especially when you consider the trouble that Xavier has been experiencing early on. A huge reason for that is the play of point guard Kevin Anderson, but it should be noted that 6'10" forward Justin Harper was the guy that carried the Spiders in the first game of the season. William & Mary looks like they may be further down than I expected, as the Tribe is coming off of a whooping at the hands of ACC-cellar dweller Virginia.
8:30 pm: East Tennessee State @ Murray State: After beating Vanderbilt in the tournament last season, Murray State got some votes for the preseason top 25. ETSU has consistently been one of the better mid-major programs in the country the last few years.
9:00 pm: Siena @ Minnesota (ESPNU): With Alex Franklin, Edwin Ubiles, and Ronald Moore all graduated and Fran McCaffery now at Iowa, the Saints don't have the same look as they did last season. They do have Ryan Rossiter, however, who ha 27 points and 10 boards in his first game this season. Minnesota is coming off of a nice win over Wofford. Can they make it two in a row?
11:00 pm: Pepperdine @ UCLA (ESPNU): Pepperdine isn't exactly expected to be great, or good, this season, but it will be a chance for a national audience to get a look at Lazeric Jones at the point for the Bruins. Also worth watching -- Keion Bell. Dude has sick hops.
Over the coming weeks, we will be counting down our Top 50 teams in the country. Teams 26-50 will be posted in groups of five, while we will count backwards from No. 25 to the No. 1 team in the country.
For a complete listing of our season previews, click here.
To browse through the rest of our Top 50 Countdown, click here.
50. Northwestern
Last Season: 20-14, 7-11 (Big Ten)
Head Coach: Bill Carmody
Key Losses: Kevin Coble, Jeremy Nash
New Additions: JerShon Cobb
Projected Lineup:
G: Michael Thompson, Sr.
G: Alex Marcotullio, So.
F: Drew Crawford, So.
F: John Shurna, Jr.
C: Luka Mirkovic, Jr.
Bench: JerShon Cobb, Fr.; David Curletti, Jr.
Outlook: The Wildcats caught a bad break when Kevin Coble decided he wasn't going to return for his final season with Northwestern. But that doesn't mean that the Wildcats are dead in the water. Northwestern brings back five of their top six scorers from a team that won 20 games and was in bubble consideration until the end of February. One of those five is John Shurna, a combo-forward that averaged 18 and 6 in Coble's stead. They also bring back Michael Thompson, one of the most underrated guards in the conference. Drew Crawford was selected as the Big Ten freshman of the year. Luka Mirkovic and Alex Marcotullio also return, while freshman JerShon Cobb, a top 100 recruit, should be able to fill in Jeremy Nash's shoes. This is the same Northwestern team, just a year older. Why can't they compete this year? Northwestern has never made an NCAA Tournament. Could that change this season?
49. Loyola Marymount
Last Season: 18-16, 7-7 (WCC)
Head Coach: Max Good
Key Losses: Kevin Young, Given Kalipende
New Additions: Anthony Ireland, Godwin Okonji, Ayodeji Egbeyemi
Projected Lineup:
G: Vernon Teel, Sr.
G: Jarred DuBois, Jr.
F: Drew Viney, Jr.
F: Ashley Hamilton, So.
C: Edgar Garibay, So.
Bench: Anthony Ireland, Fr.; Larry Davis, Jr.; Tim Diederichs, Jr.; LaRon Armstead, Jr.
Outlook: Just two years ago, this Loyola Marymount program was in shambles. Prior to the 2009-2010 season, they had won just eight games the previous two seasons. But thanks to the addition of some talented transfers and the development of a couple of their own players, the Lions won 18 games and went 7-7 in the league. Those two records could have been much better had Loyola not been battling injuries all season. The best news? Essentially everyone is back (the notable exception is 6'8" Kevin Young, who transferred). Loyola may be one of the few teams in the WCC that can actually match up with Gonzaga inside. 6'8" Oregon transfer Drew Viney, who averaged 16.7 ppg and 7.1 rpg, is back. His perimeter ability makes Viney a tough matchup in the WCC, and he also is a solid defender. Edgar Garibay, who was granted a medical redshirt due to a torn acl he suffered, is a 6'10" center that started four games before his injury. All-freshman team member Ashley Hamilton, an athletic 6'7" forward that averaged 8.6 ppg and 4.5 rpg, will also return and could turn into a real threat inside. On the perimeter, the Lions are led by all-conference performer Vernon Teel, a stat-sheet stuffing combo-guard (he averaged 15 points, 5 boards, 5 assists, 2 steals, and shot 40% from three) that could blossom into one of the best players on the west coast this season. Jared DuBois, who is a solid spot-up shooter, will be a nice complement to Teel on the perimeter, while Larry Davis, a Seton Hall transfer that has been plagued by injuries (he didn't travel with the team to Europe this summer), will provide a shot of athleticism on the perimeter when healthy. Also expect point guard Anthony Ireland to see some time in the back court as well. This is a very good basketball team, the question will be whether or not they can handle being marked this season. The Lions won't be sneaking up on anybody.
48. Murray State
Last Season: 31-5, 17-1 (OVC)
Head Coach: Bill Kennedy
Key Losses: Danero Thomas, Tony Easely
New Additions: Chris Griffin, Shawn Jackson
Projected Lineup:
G: Isaiah Canaan, So.
G: BJ Jenkins, Sr.
G: Isacc Miles, Sr.
F: Jeffery McClain, Sr.
F: Ivan Aska, Jr.
Bench: Jewaun Long, Jr.; Donte Poole, Jr.; Shawn Jackson, Fr.; Edward Daniel, So.
Outlook: Everything about this Murray State team screams balance. They had ten players average at least ten minutes last season. They had six guys averaging between 9.7 ppg and 10.6 ppg. They not only were the best offensive team in the OVC last year, they were hands down the best defensive team as well. This is a unit that works very well together, and while they are losing two key pieces in Danero Thomas and Tony Easley, there is more than enough on this roster to make up for it. The back court of Isaiah Canaan, BJ Jenkins, and Isacc Miles is as good as anyone. They put tremendous pressure on the ball defensively and can all knock down a jumper or create off the dribble. Donte Poole, a 6'3" junior, is other guy that will see time on the perimeter. Up front, it will be tough to replace a guy like Easley, but there are pieces here. Ivan Aska is a solid front court presence, while guys like Jeffery McClain, Edward Daniel, and the three newcomers will be looking to make a name for themselves and earn some playing time. Is wasn't a fluke that Murray State won 31 games last season or that they came a few possessions from knocking off Butler in the second round. This is a well-coached, balanced, and talented basketball team that will throw a scare into any of the big boys they face this season.
47. Texas A&M
Last Season: 24-10, 11-5 (Big XII)
Head Coach: Mark Turgeon
Key Losses: Brian Davis, Derrick Roland, Donald Sloan
New Additions: Kourtney Roberson, Daniel Alexander, Keith Davis
Projected Lineup:
G: BJ Holmes, Sr.
G: Dash Harris, Jr.
F: Naji Hibbert, So.
F: Nathan Walkup, Sr.
C: David Loubeau, Jr.
Bench: Daniel Alexander, Fr.; Keith Davis, Fr.; Khris Middleton, So.; Ray Turner, So.
Outlook: It was a rough year to be an Aggie, between Derrick Roland's leg, Tobi Oyedeji's unfortunate passing, and the graduation of Brian Davis and Donald Sloan. The cupboard is far from bare, however. BJ Holmes and Dash Harris both looked like they could develop into above-average players in the Big XII, especially with the amount of minutes opening up in the Aggie back court. Expect sophomore Naji Hibbert to see an increased role on the perimeter as well. Up front, A&M has a fairly solid rotation. David Loubeau may be primed for a break out season, as he looked very impressive last year at time. With Khris Middleton, Ray Turner, and Nathan Walkup returning and three freshman coming into the program at 6'8" or taller, the Aggies once again look like they are going to be a physical defensive team. Mark Turgeon's clubs have never been flashy. They grind you out and win games through execution and defense. This team is not loaded with offensive firepower, but if a couple of guys develop and this group continues to play the way Turgeon wants them to, this group should be, at the least, in the bubble conversation come February.
46. Richmond
Last Season: 26-9, 13-3 (A-10)
Head Coach: Chris Mooney
Key Losses: David Gonzalvez, Ryan Butler
New Additions: Cedrick Lindsay, Derrick Williams, Wayne Sparrow
Outlook: While the Spiders lose David Gonzalvez to graduation, the good news is that reigning A-10 player of the year Kevin Anderson returns. A 17.8 ppg scorer last season, Anderson is a lightening quick 6' guard that can get into the paint against just about anyone. Shouldering more of the load this season without Gonzalvez, he could very well become a 20 ppg scorer. The question is going to be who steps up in the back court to replace Gonzalvez. The best answer may one of Chris Mooney's two freshmen guards, Cedrick Lindsay and Wayne Sparrow. Junior Frances-Cedric Martel and senior Kevin Smith may end up starting as a result of their experience, while Darien Brothers should see some minutes as well. Richmond's achilles heel last season was in the paint, as evidenced by the pounding they took from Omar Samhan in the NCAA Tournament. And, by and large, this will be the same group as last season. Much will be expected of Justin Harper, a 6'10" forward with a nice perimeter touch. He averaged 10.6 ppg last season, but with his excellent play down the stretch, he will be counted on to pick up some of the scoring slack. Also returning is Dan Geriot, who is already a 1,000 point scorer, but struggled to regain the form of his sophomore year (when he averaged 14 and 7) after tearing his acl and missing the 2008-2009 season. Darius Garrett also returns, a slender 6'9" forward. You know what you are going to get out of Anderson, and if some of his teammates can pick up the slack and make up for the loss of Gonzalvez's production, this is a team that will compete for a tournament berth.
What we learned this week: There's saying I've used quite a bit on this site that goes: coaching wins games, talent hangs banner. What I mean by it is that on any given night, a great coaching performance can be the difference between a win and a loss, regardless of who is playing. But a great coach isn't going to lead DePaul to a Big East title.
The same can be said for effort. When one team plays harder and hustles more than the other, conference favorites can lose to cellar dwellers on any given night. But just because Penn State plays hard doesn't mean they're headed for the final four. Never was that sentiment more evident than this week. Take a look at some of the upsets that occurred this week and what they mean to the respective teams:
UConn 84, Villanova 75: UConn picked up a huge road win against Villanova on President's Day. The Huskies are far from a tournament lock with the win, but it is definitely a step in the right direction. For Nova, the loss drops them back into a tie with Syracuse for the Big East lead. The Wildcats still have a shot at a No. 1 seed, but as is the case every season, so much of that will be determined by performances in the conference tournament.
Louisville 66, Syracuse 60: Like UConn, Louisville still has quite a bit of work left to do. The win over the Orange is great, their next best Big East W is a win over South Florida, and the 'Ville did nothing in the non-conference. The loss for Syracuse isn't disastrous. They had been struggling lately, especially Wes Johnson, and needed the wake-up call.
Rutgers 71, Georgetown 68: This loss is embarassing for Georgetown. Rutgers is going no where this season, and has been bad enough that their coach Fred Hill may end up getting fired. But the Scarlet Knights were easily the better, more disciplined, team on Sunday. The Hoyas may be playing their way out of a top two seed with their inconsistency.
Niagara 87, Siena 74: Niagara is a talented team. There is a reason that the Purple Eagles were predicted to be one of the major challengers to Siena's domination in the MAAC. Injuries and inconsistent play have left Niagara in the middle of the MAAC, but that doesn't change the talent level on their roster. Losing at Niagara carries no shame, but it does severely damage Siena's at-large chances. The Saints are 0-5 against teams that look to be tourney bound, and their best win is against Northeastern. Siena needs to win the MAAC tournament to get a bid with this loss.
Penn 79, Cornell 64: This was the upset of the season. Penn was 3-15 heading into this game, having already had their coach fired this season. Their three wins came against teams that have a combined 14 wins this year. Cornell is a team that many people believed would roll through the Ivy, and possibly win a game or two in the tournament. This loss would have been much, much worse as the Big Red lost to Princeton on Saturday. But they squeaked out a 50-48 win, meaning that Cornell controls their own destiny as far as a tournament bid goes. Win out, and they are in.
Bradley 68, Northern Iowa 59: There is no shame in losing on the road in the MVC. Bradley, who owns a win over Illinois as well, is not a bad basketball team. But the Panthers are putting themselves in a dangerous spot. The Valley tournament is not a walk-through by any means, and with this loss and the subsequent suspension of center Jordan Eglseder for driving drunk, the Panthers are putting their at-large bid in serious jeopardy.
Evansville 65, Wichita State 62: Let me amend a previous statement: there is no shame in losing on the road in the MVC so long as its not to Evansville. The Shockers gave Evansville their first league win of the season, which ended their hopes on an at-large bid.
GAMES OF THE WEEK: Pitt 98, West Virginia 95 3OT; Cal St. Fullerton 113, Cal St. Northridge 112 3OT
Playing in an unusual Friday night game, West Virginia was up 66-59 with just over a minute left in regulation. But the combination of three missed front-ends and a turnover in the back court allowed Pitt to tie the game on a three from Ashton Gibbs. At the end of the first overtime, Pitt was up two with Gibbs headed to the free throw line where he is automatic. But Gibbs missed the second, and Truck Bryant buried a triple at the other end to force a second overtime. At the end of the second OT, WVU was down three with the ball when Da'Sean Butler fired a step back three. Gary McGhee got a piece of Butler's wrist, and the senior proceeded to knock down three free throws to force a third overtime. Down three at the end of the third overtime, Bryant missed a tough, leaning three, and the Panthers picked up a big win.
Neither the highlights or my writeup do the game justice.
As far as the second game goes, this video should be more than enough to explain what happened. The game-winner comes right around the 3:45 mark.
For the first time in my experience, the "foul-when-you're-up-three-late" strategy backfired.
PLAYER OF THE WEEK: Ekpe Udoh, Baylor
Looking at just the numbers, you'd call me crazy for picking Udoh. In two games this week, a win at Nebraska and a win at home against Missouri, Udoh averaged only 7.0 ppg, 9.5 rpg, and 4.5 bpg. That's pretty far from great numbers. The stat that isn't there is game-winners - he had two of them this week. Against Nebraska, Udoh hit a short jumper coming across the lane to give the Bears a 54-53 lead with just over 20 seconds left in the game. Against Missouri, after a missed Baylor free throw with six seconds left, Udoh tipped in a miss with just over a second left on the clock.
Ekpe Udoh had two game-winners this week. (photo credit: KC Star)
Those two wins were crucial for Baylor, who has been a bit of a hard luck loser in the Big XII. They are one of just six teams in the country that hasn't lost a game by double figures. With the two wins, the Bears slid into a three-way tie for fourth in the league.
They were good too:
Randy Culpepper, UTEP: The Miners pushed their winning streak to nine games, in large part dude to the play of Culpepper. He had 18 points in a win at SMU on Wednesday, but Saturday was the notable performance. Culpepper went for 45 points (the fourth highest total of the season) in a blowout win over East Carolina.
Jerome Randle, Cal: Randle led Cal to back-to-back wins this week as they kept a one game lead in the Pac-10. Randle averaged 28.5 ppg in the two wins.
Al-Farouq Aminu, Wake Forest: Aminu led Wake to a 2-0 week in which the Demon Deacons moved into second place in the ACC. In wins over BC and Georgia Tech, Aminu averaged 19.5 ppg, 9.0 rpg, 2.5 bpg, and 2.5 spg.
Ashton Gibbs, Pitt: Gibbs averaged 22.0 ppg in two wins for the Panthers, but the big game was the 24 he put up in the 3OT win over West Virginia. His three at the end of regulation forced OT.
TEAM OF THE WEEK: Richmond Spiders
Believe it or not, Richmond is currently sitting in first place in the A-10. The Spiders came back from five down late in the second half to beat URI on the road before easily handling St. Bonaventure on the road on Saturday. All told, Richmond has won six straight games (including a W against Temple) and has cracked the top 25 polls. But it is not yet safe to call the Spiders a lock. They end their season with three games against fellow A-10 bubble teams - at Xavier, Dayton, at Charlotte - in the span of a week.
Kevin Anderson helped lead Richmond to a 2-0 week and the top of the A-10. (photo credit: The Collegian UR)
The interesting part about Richmond's season has been the unexpected aspect. Center Dan Geriot, an all-league performer before missing last season with a torn acl, has not been as effective as he was pre-injury. In his place, Darius Garrett has filled in admirably. Richmond thought they were going to be a high-powered offense led by the back court of Kevin Anderson and David Gonzalvez, but instead the Spiders are tied for the league lead in FG% defense with Temple.
They were good too
New Mexico: The Lobos proved they have what it takes to win tough games on the road. They went into Vegas and knocked off UNLV, who was coming off of a blowout win over BYU, before beating a pesky Utah team in overtime.
Kansas: The Jayhawks won three impressive road games this week, knocking off Texas, Iowa State, and Texas A&M. Kansas holds a three game lead in the Big XII.
Duke: The Blue Devils knocked off their two biggest conference rivals in consecutive games this week. They outlasted a physical UNC team on Wednesday in Chapel Hill before running over Maryland at home on Saturday.
Wake Forest: After the Demon Deacons knocked off both Georgia Tech and Boston College at home, they look like the new favorite to be the second best ACC team.
Ohio State: The Buckeyes moved into a tie for first place with Purdue and Michigan State as they went on the road to knock off both Indiana and Illinois in convincing fashion. Perhaps most impressive in those two wins was that Evan Turner only need to put up 13.0 ppg, 9.0 rpg, and 7.0 apg. Granted, those are the numbers of a lottery pick, but they are also a far cry from what he's done this season.
Cal: The Bears went 2-0 at home this week, knocking off both Washington and Wazzu. Cal moves into one game lead in the Pac-10.
There has been a lot of talk over the last few weeks about the Atlantic 10 conference and the possibility of six teams from the league making the NCAA Tournament.
Xavier, Richmond, Charlotte, Dayton, Rhode Island, and Temple all could be dancing come Selection Sunday. That said, they each have some work left to do (some more than others) to lock up a bid. While it is much more likely that four or five teams end up making the dance, its not out of the realm of possibility that things break right and all six get a bid. (By things breaking right, I mean teams like Louisville getting smoked by teams like St. John's.) That list does not include one of the most important teams in the A-10 race.
There are seven teams within one game of first place in the loss column in the A-10. The six listed above, and St. Louis.
St. Louis is 16-8 overall and 6-3 in the A-10. But their most important record is their 12-1 mark at home, which includes wins over Richmond and Nebraska.
You see, the Billikens could end up being the team that decides the league championship, and maybe even determines some tournament destinies, almost by default. They play seven more games this season. Five of them come against the six teams sitting above them in the standings, with four of those games coming at home - Dayton, Rhode Island, Xavier, and Temple while traveling to play Dayton to close the season.
Could a win over URI or Dayton keep the Rams or the Flyers out of the tournament?
Another note on the A-10 - I know that Charlotte was blown out by Dayton last night. I also know that Richmond won at Rhode Island last night. But it is still way, way too early to claim that Richmond is a lock, or that Charlotte may have cost themselves a bid.
Richmond closes the season at Xavier, at home for Dayton, and at Charlotte over the span of seven days. Charlotte still has to play Xavier, at Rhode Island, and at home for Charlotte.
That's a lot of basketball to be played against some good competition.
You don't think Richmond could lose all three of those games, fall into sixth in the A-10, and lose in the first round of the conference tournament?
You don't think Charlotte could win five or six games down the stretch and win the A-10 regular season outright?
If the tournament were to start today, Richmond would be in, and Charlotte would be one of the last few teams to be decided upon.
Seven of them involved top ten teams. One of those games features two top ten teams.
And while you will want to keep an eye on all of them, the most important and intriguing games of the day don't take place in the major conferences. They will be played in the MWC, in the A-10, and in C-USA.
Like its been for the last few years, the bubble is weak this season. The difference this year is that with the Pac-10 being down, the SEC West approaching Pac-10 territory, and the middle of the Big East looking weaker by the loss, the number of bids available for mid-major schools is higher than usual, and certainly will be more than the four at-larges they received last season.
Its to the point that there is a real possibility more than one of the aforementioned leagues could get four (or more) teams in. The results from Saturday may go along way towards deciding who celebrates on Selection Sunday and who is banished to the dead man walking tournament NIT.
Conference USA: There are only four teams that really have a chance of still getting an at-large bid this year - Memphis, UTEP, Tulsa, and UAB.
3:00 pm: UAB @ Rice: UAB probably has the best non-conference resume in the league, as they picked up wins over Cincinnati, Butler, and Georgia as well as winning at Kent State and surprising Arkansas. But the Blazers have lost their last two games, with both coming to teams they are currently competing with for the C-USA title and the at-large bids. The Blazers cannot afford to lose three games in a row, especially when the third is against cellar dweller Rice, even in it is on the road.
4:00 pm: Gonzaga @ Memphis: Gonzaga could use this win, but Memphis needs this win. They are 16-6 on the season, but their RPI is sitting at an unimpressive 68th and they have two losses to teams with RPI's around the 200's (UMass and SMU). Their best win came against UAB at home, and after that ... Oakland? Marshall? There is not much on this resume, and Gonzaga is a team in the RPI top 30. A loss here would come very close to ensuring the Tigers need to win the C-USA tournament.
10:00 pm: Tulsa @ UTEP: The Golden Hurricane and the Miners are currently sitting in a tie for first place in the league, which gives this game even more meaning. Tulsa is in pretty bad shape in terms on an at-large bid. They do have a 21 point win over Oklahoma State, but they've only played four other games against teams with top 100 RPI's, with their lone win coming against Marshall on Wednesday. UTEP is in a similar situation, and while their RPI is a bit lower than Tulsa's (72nd vs. 55th), they have some nice wins. They won at Memphis, at UAB, and at New Mexico State as well as picking up a neutral court win over Oklahoma.
Atlantic-10
12:00 pm: Xavier @ Dayton: The Muskies are all but in at this point. They have no bad losses (the worst loss is a neutral court loss to Marquette, who is not as bad as their 61st RPI indicates) and own a win over Cincinnati, Charlotte, Dayton, and Rhode Island. Xavier is 23rd in the RPI right now, and barring a collapse, a team with that RPI is not going to miss the tournament. Dayton, on the other hand, has some work to do. Wins over Old Dominion and Georgia Tech are nice, but with an RPI in the low 30's, they can't afford a swoon. A loss to Xavier, who has already beaten Dayton this year, would drop the Flyers to 4-4 in the league. Can the A-10 really send a team that ends up in fifth or sixth? Its too early to call it a must win, but its a we-really-need-this win.
2:00 pm: Temple @ Richmond: The Owls are basically in. A win over Villanova and no glaring losses will do that for you. But Richmond has some work to do. They've put together some nice wins (Mississippi State, Missouri, Old Dominion, Florida), but they've lost a couple games they could have won (South Carolina, William & Mary, VCU). Richmond doesn't have a great win, and still plays each of the other top six A-10 teams. They will have their chances to improve their resume, but they need to win those games in order to actually improve it.
Mountain West: The great thing about the MWC this weekend is that the four teams with a shot at an at-large bid play each other. If you get the Mountain station, tune in. Or at least TiVo it.
4:00 pm: BYU @ UNLV: BYU is in, and may actually be the best team out west. UNLV, however, still needs to pad their resume a bit. They did beat Louisville and Arizona out of conference, but those wins are not as impressive today as they would have been five years ago. They have also picked up a couple quality wins in conference play (at New Mexico, SDSU), but they probably need to do more. UNLV will make or break their bid in the next three games, as they play BYU, UNM, and SDSU in the next eight days.
6:00 pm: SDSU @ New Mexico: New Mexico ensured their bid by taking care of business out of conference (wins over Cal, Texas A&M, Texas Tech, and Dayton) and beating BYU last week. SDSU is in a much more dire situation. They do own a win over New Mexico already, but their only other win of significance is against Arizona. The Aztecs will get some chances to secure a bid, and this is by no means a make-or-break game, especially considering this game is played at the Pit and SDSU has already beaten UNM. But it is safe to say that SDSU really needs this game. Continue reading...
The three best conferences outside the big six are as unpredictable as ever. Unpredictability in sports means excitement, and when you are dealing with conferences where 40% of the league has a real shot at winning the regular season title and/or earning a trip to the dance, you will rarely come across a more unpredictable situation.
Haven't had a chance to watch much A-10 hoops this season? Don't get the Mountain West's channel? Stopped caring about C-USA when Coach Cal left?
Don't worry. We're here to help you parse through it all. Be sure to check back in the next few days as we help you sort out the best leagues outside of the Big Six.
Standings (strictly teams that are within reach of the bubble)
1. Xavier 15-6, 7-1
2. Temple 18-4, 6-1
3. Charlotte 16-5, 6-1
4. Rhode Island 17-3, 5-2
5. Richmond 16-6, 5-2
6. Dayton 15-6, 4-3
Favorite: Temple
Despite the Owls loss to Charlotte last Wednesday, the Owls still seem to be the favorite to win this league, and its not necessarily because of their talent level. That's not to say that Temple isn't a talented team. Ryan Brooks and Juan Fernandez form an excellent 1-2 scoring punch on the perimeter. Fernandez is a better shooter and Brooks is more adept at driving to the basket and mixing it up in the paint, but in the end both are simply good, smart basketball players. Lavoy Allen is a quality big man that can rebound the ball. Luis Guzman is an experienced leader at the point.
Ryan Brooks has been Temple's leading scorer this season. (photo credit: ESPN)
But, like I said, Temple doesn't win because of their talent level. They win because they play defense. On the year, Fran Dunphy's crew has allowed just 56.9 ppg to their opponents, and only four teams have hung 70 points on their disciplined man-to-man defense - Western Michigan, Xavier, Charlotte, and Kansas. And if it wasn't for the "concussion-like symptoms" Juan Fernandez was experiencing and Lavoy Allen's foul trouble, the Owls may not have blown a ten point lead to Charlotte.
The biggest reason Temple is the favorite in the A-10? Their schedule. While the Owls will play five of their remaining nine games on the road, only one of those five roadies (Richmond) comes against a team in the top six of the A-10. Overall, they only play three more games against the top six of the league, and avoid Xavier and Charlotte. With that schedule and their ability to defend, Temple has the best shot of bringing home the league title, especially since they own the tie-breaker with Xavier
And if they lose: Xavier
The Musketeers probably are the next best team in the league. This was supposed to be a down year for the Muskies, as the likes of Derrick Brown, BJ Raymond, and CJ Anderson all moved on from X. Early in the season, Xavier looked like they were going to fulfill those expectations as they lost to Marquette, Baylor, Kansas State, Butler, and Wake Forest in the span of 11 games. But as the season has progressed, those losses began to not look so bad. All five teams are in the top 34 according to Kenpom, and with the exception of Marquette (51st), all are also in the top 25 of the RPI. Now consider that all five games were on the road or at the Old Spice Classic, and maybe the writing was on the wall for Xavier's start in league play.
Jordan Crawford could end up being A-10 player of the year. (photo credit: ESPN)
Clearly, the brightest star for Xavier has been Jordan Crawford, the A-10's leading scorer. Crawford has a penchant for gunning, but he has also shown the backbone to take, and make, some tough shots down the stretch. And while Crawford's back court mates -- Terrell Holloway, Mark Lyons, Brad Redord, Dante Jackson -- all play their role capably, perhaps the biggest reason for Xavier's potential success in the league are their biggest players. Jason Love has become an excellent center, providing a scoring threat in the post, grabbing rebounds, and blocking some shots. Alongside Love is the athletic Jamel McLean and 7 foot Kenny Frease, both of whom have developed quite nicely this season.
Xavier's biggest issue is their non-conference resume, as an overtime win over Cincinnati is their only notable accomplishment. But the Muskies are not done with their non-conference schedule, as they still have to travel to Florida.
Who's Dancing?: As has been the case in year's past, the biggest problem surrounding the A-10 getting four or five bids to the dance is that the top of their conference ends up beating up on one another. There are only so many games that can help boost a profile for these teams, and they can't all win them all ... because they are against each other. So while there are going to be five, maybe six, teams when it is all said and done that merit consideration, my bet is that three, maybe four, of those teams actually get in.
Temple: 18-4, 6-1; RPI: 16; Kenpom: 32; SOS: 32; vs. RPI top-50: 4-3; vs. RPI top-100: 6-4; Best wins: Villanova, Siena, @ URI; Bad losses: none
Temple is all but a lock to get in. Their computer numbers are great, they have some good wins, they have no bad losses, and their schedule has been tough. The question is where they will get seeded. Temple plays three games against the other top six teams in the league. If they can go 8-1 or 7-2 down the stretch, winning the A-10, I think they have a shot at a top four seed. The A-10 is that strong. They might be able to move up another line if they can win the A-10 tournament as well.
Xavier: 15-6, 7-1; RPI: 21; Kenpom: 19; SOS: 10; vs. RPI top-50: 4-5; vs. RPI top-100: 5-6; Best wins: Cincinnati, Rhode Island; Bad losses: Marquette
Xavier is in the same boat as Temple. They should be all but a lock barring a collapse. This difference is that they don't have the non-conference resume that Temple as. Xavier didn't get a win against a Villanova. Xavier has a tough schedule the rest of the way, playing six of their final nine games on the road, including trips to Dayton, to Charlotte, and a non-conference game at Florida. X probably should win at least one of those three roads contests and clean up against the rest of their schedule if they want to feel safe. If Xavier can win the A-10 regular season, they are probably looking at around a five or six seed, which may get bumped up to a four seed if they can win the A-10 tournament as well.
Charlotte: 16-5, 6-1; RPI: 42; Kenpom: 79; SOS: 99; vs. RPI top-50: 3-5; vs. RPI top-100: 3-5; Best wins: Temple, @ Louisville, @ Richmond; Bad losses: By 42 to Duke, by 33 to Old Dominion, by 17 to Tennessee
Charlotte is in by far the worst shape of the three one-loss A-10 teams. They played eight games against teams with an RPI of 200 or worse (three against 300 or worse), and while they did play, and win, some games against good competition - beating Louisville on the road by 22 is impressive regardless of who was injured for the Cardinals - they also have to account for embarrassing losses to Duke and Old Dominion. Charlotte is probably in if the tournament started today, but they will want to win at least one, preferably two, of their four games against teams in the top six of the league (@ Dayton, Xavier, @ URI, Richmond). Of course, if they win the A-10, than they are going to be going to the dance.
Rhode Island: 17-3, 5-2; RPI: 12; Kenpom: 66; SOS: 45; vs. RPI top-50: 2-2; vs. RPI top-100: 6-3; Best wins: Oklahoma State, @ Dayton; Bad losses: @ VCU
Rhode Island definitely as the look of a team that belongs in the NCAA Tournament, and they have the computer profile as well. They have no losses outside of the top 100, and some of their wins have fallen out of the top 50 as teams like Northeastern, Boston College, and even VCU have lost a few games of late. Simply put, Rhody has done everything that they can with the schedule they had to earn themselves a bid to the dance, but they don't have much room for error. They have a fairly easy schedule the rest of the way, getting Richmond and Charlotte at home and heading to Temple. If they can take care of business against the Spiders and the 49ers, and avoid tripping up against a team like La Salle, the Rams should be ok.
Richmond: 16-6, 5-2; RPI: 38; Kenpom: 68; SOS: 67; vs. RPI top-50: 2-2; vs. RPI top-100: 4-5; Best wins: Missouri, Old Dominion, Florida; Bad losses: @ St. Louis
Richmond is in an interesting spot. They scheduled tough, and picked up some good wins, in the non-conference, but they could end up being hurt as some of their losses (William & Mary, South Carolina, VCU) begin to look worse as those teams struggle. The Spiders have a couple good non-conference wins, but have lost to Charlotte at home already and dropped an ugly one to St. Louis. The good news for Richmond is that they play each of the other five teams in the top six of the league one more time before the season is done. Richmond is going to earn or lose their bid in their last three games - at Xavier, Dayton, at Charlotte.
Dayton: 15-6, 4-3; RPI: 40; Kenpom: 50; SOS: 40; vs. RPI top-50: 2-5; vs. RPI top-100: 2-5; Best wins: Georgia Tech, Old Dominion; Bad losses: @ St. Joe's
Hard to believe that the preseason favorite is currently sitting in sixth place. As of today, Dayton is probably out of the tournament. They don't have enough quality wins, they have that ugly loss to St. Joe's, and they simply haven't played enough top tier competition. The Flyers are really going to have to do some work over their final nine games. They get Xavier and Charlotte at home, but they must travel to Richmond and Temple. I have a feeling that, at the end of the season, Dayton is going to need a good performance in the A-10 tournament in order to earn themselves a trip to the dance.
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