Games outside the Big Six will have a lot of influence on Saturday

There are 148 games to be played on Saturday.

21 of them involve top 25 teams.

Seven of them involved top ten teams. One of those games features two top ten teams.

And while you will want to keep an eye on all of them, the most important and intriguing games of the day don't take place in the major conferences. They will be played in the MWC, in the A-10, and in C-USA.

Like its been for the last few years, the bubble is weak this season. The difference this year is that with the Pac-10 being down, the SEC West approaching Pac-10 territory, and the middle of the Big East looking weaker by the loss, the number of bids available for mid-major schools is higher than usual, and certainly will be more than the four at-larges they received last season.

Its to the point that there is a real possibility more than one of the aforementioned leagues could get four (or more) teams in. The results from Saturday may go along way towards deciding who celebrates on Selection Sunday and who is banished to the dead man walking tournament NIT.


Conference USA: There are only four teams that really have a chance of still getting an at-large bid this year - Memphis, UTEP, Tulsa, and UAB.

3:00 pm: UAB @ Rice: UAB probably has the best non-conference resume in the league, as they picked up wins over Cincinnati, Butler, and Georgia as well as winning at Kent State and surprising Arkansas. But the Blazers have lost their last two games, with both coming to teams they are currently competing with for the C-USA title and the at-large bids. The Blazers cannot afford to lose three games in a row, especially when the third is against cellar dweller Rice, even in it is on the road.

4:00 pm: Gonzaga @ Memphis: Gonzaga could use this win, but Memphis needs this win. They are 16-6 on the season, but their RPI is sitting at an unimpressive 68th and they have two losses to teams with RPI's around the 200's (UMass and SMU). Their best win came against UAB at home, and after that ... Oakland? Marshall? There is not much on this resume, and Gonzaga is a team in the RPI top 30. A loss here would come very close to ensuring the Tigers need to win the C-USA tournament.

10:00 pm: Tulsa @ UTEP: The Golden Hurricane and the Miners are currently sitting in a tie for first place in the league, which gives this game even more meaning. Tulsa is in pretty bad shape in terms on an at-large bid. They do have a 21 point win over Oklahoma State, but they've only played four other games against teams with top 100 RPI's, with their lone win coming against Marshall on Wednesday. UTEP is in a similar situation, and while their RPI is a bit lower than Tulsa's (72nd vs. 55th), they have some nice wins. They won at Memphis, at UAB, and at New Mexico State as well as picking up a neutral court win over Oklahoma.


Atlantic-10

12:00 pm: Xavier @ Dayton: The Muskies are all but in at this point. They have no bad losses (the worst loss is a neutral court loss to Marquette, who is not as bad as their 61st RPI indicates) and own a win over Cincinnati, Charlotte, Dayton, and Rhode Island. Xavier is 23rd in the RPI right now, and barring a collapse, a team with that RPI is not going to miss the tournament. Dayton, on the other hand, has some work to do. Wins over Old Dominion and Georgia Tech are nice, but with an RPI in the low 30's, they can't afford a swoon. A loss to Xavier, who has already beaten Dayton this year, would drop the Flyers to 4-4 in the league. Can the A-10 really send a team that ends up in fifth or sixth? Its too early to call it a must win, but its a we-really-need-this win.

2:00 pm: Temple @ Richmond: The Owls are basically in. A win over Villanova and no glaring losses will do that for you. But Richmond has some work to do. They've put together some nice wins (Mississippi State, Missouri, Old Dominion, Florida), but they've lost a couple games they could have won (South Carolina, William & Mary, VCU). Richmond doesn't have a great win, and still plays each of the other top six A-10 teams. They will have their chances to improve their resume, but they need to win those games in order to actually improve it.


Mountain West: The great thing about the MWC this weekend is that the four teams with a shot at an at-large bid play each other. If you get the Mountain station, tune in. Or at least TiVo it.

4:00 pm: BYU @ UNLV: BYU is in, and may actually be the best team out west. UNLV, however, still needs to pad their resume a bit. They did beat Louisville and Arizona out of conference, but those wins are not as impressive today as they would have been five years ago. They have also picked up a couple quality wins in conference play (at New Mexico, SDSU), but they probably need to do more. UNLV will make or break their bid in the next three games, as they play BYU, UNM, and SDSU in the next eight days.

6:00 pm: SDSU @ New Mexico: New Mexico ensured their bid by taking care of business out of conference (wins over Cal, Texas A&M, Texas Tech, and Dayton) and beating BYU last week. SDSU is in a much more dire situation. They do own a win over New Mexico already, but their only other win of significance is against Arizona. The Aztecs will get some chances to secure a bid, and this is by no means a make-or-break game, especially considering this game is played at the Pit and SDSU has already beaten UNM. But it is safe to say that SDSU really needs this game.