Elite 8 Preview: No. 1 Kansas vs. No. 11 VCU

When: Sunday, 2:20 pm EST, CBS

The Details: The comparisons between the George Mason run to the Final Four and VCU run to the Elite 8 are, frankly, astonishing.

Mason and VCU are both CAA schools. They both struggled at the end of the regular season. They both got questionable at-large bids and had quite a few folks criticizing the committee for including them into the tournament. And in the Elite 8, both played the last No. 1 seed left in the tournament, who also just so happened to be the most talented team in the country.


George Mason shocked the world. They beat UConn and made the Final Four. As an 11 seed. Can VCU do the same?


Key Matchups: The Morrii vs. Bradford Burgess

Marcus and Markieff Morris make up one of the most versatile, talented, and efficient front line duos in the country, and that doesn't even include Thomas Robinson, who may end up being the best NBA prospect of the three. They can score on the perimeter or in the post. They can pass and they can rebound. The Morrii are the reason that Kansas is able to run the offense that they run.


VCU, on the other hand, does not have a ton of size. Jamie Skeen is a borderline NBA prospect and has been one of the most important pieces for the Rams all season long. And while Shaka Smart does have a couple of other big men available in his rotation, VCU is at their best when they play Brad Burgess at the four. Burgess is more of a perimeter player than a post player, and part of what makes VCU's offense so dangerous is the fact that their four man can do things like score 49 points and hit 9-11 from three against Purdue and Florida State.

Will Shaka Smart be able to stay with the small lineup, or will the Jayhawks be too big?


Key Stats: Kansas' turnover percentage

Kansas is a better basketball team than VCU. That much cannot be debated. They are going to make things very difficult for the Rams defensively, and as we mentioned earlier, their front court strength will be difficult for the Rams to matchup with.

That said, VCU likes to press, and they are pretty good at forcing turnovers in that press. The Jayhawks, specifically the three members of their point guard rotation (Tyshawn Taylor, Josh Selby, Elijah Johnson), have a penchant for turning the ball over. VCU is going to need to force some turnovers and get some easy baskets if they want to pull off this upset.


X-factors: Brandon Rozzell

Rozzell is an instant offense kind of player for Shaka Smart. He's got the ability to knock down six or seven threes in a game. He can go for 25 points on a given night. He's perfectly capable of reeling off 10 points on his own in a three minute span. But he's also capable of having an 0-9 night. The Rams will need Rozzell to be shooting well on Sunday.

Rozzell's shooting underlies a bigger point -- VCU has to make their threes. Kansas is far and away the best team that the Rams will have played in this tournament. I hate to use the cliche, but the three pointer in the great equalizer in college hoops. The Rams will have to be making them to have a shot.


And the winner is?: Kansas Jayhawks

The thing that I liked the most about Kansas on Friday night was the attitude that they had coming in. On Thursday, the local media in Lawrence reported an incident where one of the Morris twins said "you boys better be ready" to the Richmond players when they crossed paths at a practice session. Prior to the game on Friday, the two teams had a bit of a skirmish in the tunnel leading to the arena floor. Kansas is playing with an attitude and a swagger. They are now the heavy favorite to win this tournament, and if they are playing with that attitude, with a chip on their shoulder, they are going to be very tough to knock off.
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Elite 8 Preview: No. 2 North Carolina vs. No. 8 Kentucky

When: Sunday, 5:05 pm EST, CBS

The Details: In an NCAA Tournament that has been all about the underdog and the cinderella story, a matchup of Kentucky and North Carolina gives the traditional college hoops fan their dose of blueblood.

The Wildcats and the Tar Heels have already played once this season. UNC won at home, beating Kentucky by two points on a night that Terrence Jones shot 3-17. North Carolina is a very different team than the one that played that night, thanks in large part to the play of Kendall Marshall. But Kentucky is a different team as well. Instead of relying entirely on their talented freshmen to carry them, John Calipari's team has gotten tremendous play and leadership out of the trio of upperclassmen that see playing time.


Key Matchups: Big men in transition

Tyler Zeller has developed into a very good low post scorer. He has a nice little jump hook that he's put some range on, he's a decent face-up shooter, and he can score on the offensive glass. But where Zeller has become the most dangerous is in transition.

I cannot remember the last big man that I've seen run the floor as well as Zeller. He routinely beats slower footed post players to the rim, getting easy dunks off of makes and misses. It helps that Kendall Marshall is like a quarterback running the show, throwing sensational outlet passes. John Henson can get out and run the floor as well.

That's going to be an issue for Kentucky. Josh Harrellson is not the most fleet afoot. He can get beat down the floor. The lack of depth that Kentucky has in their front court won't help Harrellson stay fresh, either.


Key Stats: Terrence Jones scoring

Jones has not shown up for the NCAA Tournament. He has 30 points and 20 rebounds in three games. He's taken all of 23 shots in those three games, has grabbed just three offensive boards, and taken just 10 free throws.

Keep in mind, this is the Terrence Jones that some thought had an outside shot at winning national player of the year early in the season. He's a muscular, 6'9" lefty with the ability to score in the post, off the dribble, or on the perimeter. The issue with Jones has been that he tends to be a ball hog, and Kentucky certainly does not need him to become a black hole on offense. But they will need him to become a scoring threat.


X-factors: DeAndre Liggins vs. Harrison Barnes

Slowly but surely, DeAndre Liggins has become one of the most important glue guys in the country. On the one hand, he is a terrific defender. He's got length, he's got size, and he moves his feet well. He'll have his work cut out for him against Barnes, who is one of the most talented offensive players in the country. There isn't much that Barnes cannot do on the offensive end of a basketball court, and he's played his best basketball of the season down the stretch.


Liggins has also become a valued weapon offensively this year. He's knocking down threes. He's putting the ball on the floor and getting to the rim. He's finding assists. Coach Cal has shown that he trusts Liggins quite a it late in the season.


And the winner is?: North Carolina

I picked Kentucky in my bracket (so please don't kill me, Big Blue Nation), but the more I think about it the more I like this matchup for the Tar Heels. I don't think that Jones and Harrellson are going to be able to stay with UNC's bigs in transition.
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Elite 8 Preview: No. 3 UConn vs. No. 5 Arizona

When: 7:00 pm EST, CBS

The Details: Neither Arizona or UConn is supposed to be in the Elite 8. The Wildcats were the Pac-10 champs, but the consensus was that was more of a knock on the Pac-10 than it was praise for the Wildcats. In just Sean Miller's second season at the helm in Tucson, Arizona has climbed right back into the mix as the best team on the West Coast, shocking considering how young this team is and how raw they are outside of Derrick Williams.


For UConn, this is the culmination of a fairly incredible run. The Huskies weren't supposed to be a game away from the Final Four this season, not after Stanley Robinson, Jerome Dyson, and Gavin Edwards all graduated. Not with a lineup full of freshmen and sophomores, a coach that can barely make it an entire season healthy, and an NCAA investigation looming. This was supposed to be UConn's rebuilding year. Its nice to be able to make the Elite 8 when you are rebuilding, isn't it?


Key Matchups: Derrick Williams vs. Roscoe Smith, Momo Jones/Jordin Mayes vs. Kemba Walker

Look, let's just get this out there -- UConn is not going to be able to stop Derrick Williams and Arizona is not going to be able to stop Kemba Walker. No one has really been able to stop either player this season, but the key is to slow them down.

Derrick Williams may very well have played his way into the No. 1 overall pick with his performance against Duke on Thursday. It was unreal. He's strong enough to dominate on the block, he's got the perimeter skills and the explosiveness to do this, and he is apparently now hitting contested threes from Jimmer range. I have a feeling that UConn will put Roscoe Smith on him. Alex Oriakhi would get torced by Williams on the perimeter. Smith is more mobile and a better perimeter defender, but Williams will be able to dominate Smith in the paint. Doubling a post touch is easier, however, than help side rotations when a perimeter defender gets beaten off the dribble.


Kemba Walker is a nightmare to try and stay in front of on the perimeter, and when he is knocking down his jumpers from the top of the key, he is damn near impossible to stop. The key to slowing him down is to make it a team effort. A lot of teams have switched to a zone defense to defend UConn, while others have played a sloughing man-to-man or some other junk defense. The key to beating Kemba is to force him into tough shots in the mid-range. He's really learned to avoid taking the ball all the way to the rim unless he is going to have a good look when he gets there. Unfortunately, at times, that has resulted in more tough pull-ups. And that is the key for Momo Jones and Jordin Mayes.

But, like I said earlier, you aren't going to shut down Williams or Walker. In the immortal words of Dan Patrick, "you can't stop them, you can only hope to contain them."


Key Stats: Transition possessions

I live and breathe the data on Kenpom's website, but sometimes it doesn't tell you the whole story. Like, for example, the pace that UConn and Arizona play at. The Wildcats average about a half of a possession more that the Huskies do, which would lead one to believe that, in general, these two teams like to play at just about the same pace. That would be incorrect.

Looking at the chart that Luke Winn posted on his Sweet 16 power rankings (scroll down to the BYU section), you can see that the Huskies get out in transition on 17.4% of their possessions, while Arizona runs on just 10.8% of their possessions. Watching the games backs it up. What UConn likes to do is attack quickly to see if they can get anything easy before the defense is set. But if they don't get anything easy, they pull the ball back out and run clock, looking to isolate Kemba Walker or Shabazz Napier in a high ball screen.

If they can limit the number of easy baskets UConn gets, Arizona has a very good shot at winning this thing.


X-factors: Jeremy Lamb, Momo Jones

Playing against two potential first round NBA Draft picks last night, would you believe me if I told you that Momo Jones actually was the best point guard on the floor last night? He finished with 16 points, six assists, and no turnovers, helping to hold Nolan Smith to 3-14 shooting and six turnovers. Jones, however, is incredibly inconsistent. He went scoreless in the win over Texas as Jordin Mayes had 16 points, but in the opening round Jones had 18 points in a two points win over Memphis. Which Momo shows up against UConn?

Jeremy Lamb has slowly but surely developed into a very valuable secondary option for the Huskies. After last night's 26 point performance -- which included a three to give UConn a 68-64 lead with 30 seconds left and a subsequent steal and dunk to seal the game -- Lamb can probably no longer be considered under the radar. What ever he is, his ability to knock down open threes and create his own shot by slashing to the basket is huge for the Huskies.


And the winner is?: UConn Huskies

I can see this game turning into a shootout between the two all-americans. I honestly wouldn't be surprised if both ended up with 30 or more points. That said, I think that UConn's supporting cast has been much more consistent late in the season. Its not just Jeremy Lamb. Shabazz Napier has gone from a turnover prove gunner to a freshman with the stones to take, and make, some tough, clutch jumpers. Alex Oriakhi is a horse in the paint that Arizona won't have an answer to.

As good as Jones and company were last night, I think the non-Kemba's outplay the non-Derrick's.
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Elite 8 Preview: No. 2 Florida vs. No. 8 Butler

When: 4:30 pm EST, CBS

The Details: Florida's trip through the NCAA Tournament has been a series of rematches. In the Round of 32, it was a rematch of the 2006 national title game. In the Sweet 16, the Gators got revenge for a double overtime defeat they suffered at the hands of BYU in last year's tournament.

And now? Florida take on Butler, whom the Gators beat on a Mike Miller floater at the buzzer in the first round back in the 2000 NCAA Tournament.


Florida will be the favorite heading into this game, meaning that Butler, for the third -- and possibly fourth -- straight game, will be the underdog. They should be used to the role, however. Butler's will be playing in their 10th NCAA Tournament game of the last two seasons. They were the higher seed in three of them. They've lost one.


Key Matchups: Florida's front line vs. Butler's front line

I'll be honest -- I actually think that Butler has a better back court than Florida. Erving Walker and Kenny Boynton are talented and have made some big shots this season for Florida, but Shelvin Mack is an all-american that has made big shots throughout his career and has played in a title game. Shawn Vanzant and Ronald Nored are both terrific defenders that can score some points if need be.

But Florida's front court, frankly, looks quite intimidating when compared to Butler's. As good as Matt Howard has been, Alex Tyus is going to have all kinds of athletic advantages against him. Howard hasn't faced a four with his kind of quickness or leaping ability in the tournament. Vernon Macklin has developed into a pretty consistent low-post scorer, and while Andrew Smith has had a solid sophomore season, he will have his work cut out for him on the defensive end of the floor, especially if his ankle is still bothering him.


The most difficult matchup for Butler, however, is going to be Chandler Parsons. At 6'10", Parsons is almost a point forward. He has three point range, he's capable of putting the ball on the floor and driving to score or pass, and he was the second best rebounder in SEC play. He was good enough to earn the SEC player of the year award. He also plays the three for the Gators. Butler generally uses a three guard lineup, with the biggest option being Chase Stigall, who is all of 6'4". Khyle Marshall, an athletic freshman forward, and Garrett Butcher may be valuable pieces for the Bulldogs in this matchup. We may end up finding out just how much Butler misses Willie Veasley.


Key Stats: Florida's offensive rebounding percentage

Sticking with the front court theme, the key to this game may end up being how well Butler can keep that bigger, more athletic Butler front line off of the offensive glass.

We can knock the Gators for being soft all we want, it doesn't change the fact that this team was 15th in the country in offensive rebounding percentage. Macklin, Tyus, and Patric Young all hit the offensive glass hard. But Butler is an excellent defensive rebounding team. They only give up offensive boards on 27.9% of their opponent's misses.

Another thing to watch for is Florida's scoring in and around the paint. The Gators are at their best when they are playing inside-out. They thrive when they get paint touches -- either via the dribble or a post-up -- that lead to a shot from within 10 feet or a kickout, open three. In fact, Florida is a top 25 team nationally at shooting inside the arc. Butler? They are in the bottom half of the country at defending against it.


X-factors: Shawn Vanzant and Ronald Nored

One of Florida's achilles heels the past two seasons has been their back court. As talented as Erving Walker and Kenny Boynton are, they have a tendency to be gunners. Their shot selection can be atrocious at times, and they have been known to over penetrate and turn the ball over or force shots against bigger defenders.

That is where Vanzant and Nored come into play. Both of them are terrific on-ball defenders. And while Walker and Boynton have a tendency to take some dumb shots, they are still important pieces on this team. It is their penetration that can create open looks on the perimeter and dump down opportunities for the big men. Its their shooting that keeps the floor spread so that dribble penetration is an option. They have to be scorers.

If Vanzant and Nored can frustrate Walker and Boynton, if they can get the Gator guards to start forcing the issue, it can take the Gators out of their offensive rhythm.


And the winner is?: Florida Gators

I have a feeling I am going to regret this pick. I love Butler, and while their front line has been "overmatched" already in this tournament, they have yet to face a team with the kind of athletes that Florida has. I see Patric Young and Alex Tyus abusing the Bulldog bigs on loose balls, and I still have no idea how Brad Stevens tries to slow down Chandler Parsons.

That said, Brad Stevens is apparently the new Tom Izzo. Maybe you should just bet on Butler then.
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