Elite 8 Preview: No. 2 Florida vs. No. 8 Butler

When: 4:30 pm EST, CBS

The Details: Florida's trip through the NCAA Tournament has been a series of rematches. In the Round of 32, it was a rematch of the 2006 national title game. In the Sweet 16, the Gators got revenge for a double overtime defeat they suffered at the hands of BYU in last year's tournament.

And now? Florida take on Butler, whom the Gators beat on a Mike Miller floater at the buzzer in the first round back in the 2000 NCAA Tournament.


Florida will be the favorite heading into this game, meaning that Butler, for the third -- and possibly fourth -- straight game, will be the underdog. They should be used to the role, however. Butler's will be playing in their 10th NCAA Tournament game of the last two seasons. They were the higher seed in three of them. They've lost one.


Key Matchups: Florida's front line vs. Butler's front line

I'll be honest -- I actually think that Butler has a better back court than Florida. Erving Walker and Kenny Boynton are talented and have made some big shots this season for Florida, but Shelvin Mack is an all-american that has made big shots throughout his career and has played in a title game. Shawn Vanzant and Ronald Nored are both terrific defenders that can score some points if need be.

But Florida's front court, frankly, looks quite intimidating when compared to Butler's. As good as Matt Howard has been, Alex Tyus is going to have all kinds of athletic advantages against him. Howard hasn't faced a four with his kind of quickness or leaping ability in the tournament. Vernon Macklin has developed into a pretty consistent low-post scorer, and while Andrew Smith has had a solid sophomore season, he will have his work cut out for him on the defensive end of the floor, especially if his ankle is still bothering him.


The most difficult matchup for Butler, however, is going to be Chandler Parsons. At 6'10", Parsons is almost a point forward. He has three point range, he's capable of putting the ball on the floor and driving to score or pass, and he was the second best rebounder in SEC play. He was good enough to earn the SEC player of the year award. He also plays the three for the Gators. Butler generally uses a three guard lineup, with the biggest option being Chase Stigall, who is all of 6'4". Khyle Marshall, an athletic freshman forward, and Garrett Butcher may be valuable pieces for the Bulldogs in this matchup. We may end up finding out just how much Butler misses Willie Veasley.


Key Stats: Florida's offensive rebounding percentage

Sticking with the front court theme, the key to this game may end up being how well Butler can keep that bigger, more athletic Butler front line off of the offensive glass.

We can knock the Gators for being soft all we want, it doesn't change the fact that this team was 15th in the country in offensive rebounding percentage. Macklin, Tyus, and Patric Young all hit the offensive glass hard. But Butler is an excellent defensive rebounding team. They only give up offensive boards on 27.9% of their opponent's misses.

Another thing to watch for is Florida's scoring in and around the paint. The Gators are at their best when they are playing inside-out. They thrive when they get paint touches -- either via the dribble or a post-up -- that lead to a shot from within 10 feet or a kickout, open three. In fact, Florida is a top 25 team nationally at shooting inside the arc. Butler? They are in the bottom half of the country at defending against it.


X-factors: Shawn Vanzant and Ronald Nored

One of Florida's achilles heels the past two seasons has been their back court. As talented as Erving Walker and Kenny Boynton are, they have a tendency to be gunners. Their shot selection can be atrocious at times, and they have been known to over penetrate and turn the ball over or force shots against bigger defenders.

That is where Vanzant and Nored come into play. Both of them are terrific on-ball defenders. And while Walker and Boynton have a tendency to take some dumb shots, they are still important pieces on this team. It is their penetration that can create open looks on the perimeter and dump down opportunities for the big men. Its their shooting that keeps the floor spread so that dribble penetration is an option. They have to be scorers.

If Vanzant and Nored can frustrate Walker and Boynton, if they can get the Gator guards to start forcing the issue, it can take the Gators out of their offensive rhythm.


And the winner is?: Florida Gators

I have a feeling I am going to regret this pick. I love Butler, and while their front line has been "overmatched" already in this tournament, they have yet to face a team with the kind of athletes that Florida has. I see Patric Young and Alex Tyus abusing the Bulldog bigs on loose balls, and I still have no idea how Brad Stevens tries to slow down Chandler Parsons.

That said, Brad Stevens is apparently the new Tom Izzo. Maybe you should just bet on Butler then.