Where he plays next season won't determine whether Josh Selby is a successful pro

In quite possibly the least surprising move of the off-season, Josh Selby made his intentions to stay in the NBA Draft official on Thursday.

That decision was not met with the greatest reaction from those in the college basketball establishment. Seth Davis tweeted "I never wish ill on a youngster but the GM who drafts Josh Selby should have his head examined. Kid wasn't even a decent college player". Jeff Goodman sarcastically said the move was "shocking" and referred to Selby as a "point guard that can't pass and an undersized two-guard who can't shoot". Dan Wolken tweeted "Selby's ratio of production-to-hype has to be at the low end of one-and-dones".

And that is just a sample.


On the surface, that analysis looks correct. After an auspicious start in which Selby scored 21 points and hit the game-winning three against USC the first time he suited up for the Jayhawks, Selby's season went downhill. He finished the year averaging just 7.9 ppg, and he played just under 12 mpg in his last nine games. He played this season behind the likes of Tyrel Reed, Brady Morningstar, and Tyshawn Taylor. That doesn't exactly scream one-and-done lottery pick.

But there are reasons for that. Selby broke his hand before preseason practices started. He was suspended for the first nine games of the season and missed some 20 practices as a result. He battled a stress fracture in his foot late in the season. Throw in the fact that his skill set wasn't a great fit for the offense that Bill Self ran this year -- Selby is a ball-dominating, shoot-first guard that played a role on a team whose offense was based on interior play -- and its not all that hard to see why Selby struggled this season.

Keep in mind that we are talking about a kid that was a consensus top five recruit and the No. 1 recruit according to Rivals. That talent doesn't just go away, the same way that Jrue Holiday's talent didn't go away after he had an underwhelming freshman season.

Like Selby, Holiday was a top five recruit coming out of high school, but as a freshman at UCLA he averaged just 8.5 ppg on a team that didn't have nearly the amount of talent that was on this year's Kansas team. People questioned his decision to enter the draft, and Holiday ended up going 17th to the Sixers, where two years later he is averaging 14.0 ppg and 6.5 apg.

The concern with Selby, however, lies off-the-court.

He's a kid that spent the end of his high school career driving around in white mercedes' in front of New York Times reporters and reaping the (impermissible) benefits of his relationship with Carmelo Anthony's manager. There are concerns about Selby being a spoiled prep superstar, about his work ethic, and about his coachability. That's why he is being compared to former Oklahoma and current NBDL guard Willie Warren and not Holiday.

None of that should matter, though.

Whether or not Selby is going to be drafted in the first round, whether or not he is destined to be a star in the NBA or a bench player in Germany, is irrelevant.

Selby didn't want to be in college. He wanted to be a pro. He wanted to chase his dream of being an NBA player. This spring, he had the opportunity to do so, and he took the chance. Its a risk, certainly, but it was a risk that Selby, Selby's family, and their advisers were willing to take.

The key isn't whether Selby is ready for the NBA right now. Its possible for players to develop when they are being paid to play.

The key is that Selby decides to put in the effort and dedication that is required for him to turn himself into an NBA player. Will he accept coaching? Will he be able to handle playing limited minutes in the NBA and stints in the D-League? Will he put in the hours in the gym and the film room to learn how to be an NBA point guard?

If yes, then he will succeed regardless of where he plays next season. If no, then he won't.

Its as simple as that.