The deadline to enter into the NBA Draft came and went at midnight on Sunday night, meaning that as of now, the 50 names on our Early Entry List is just about final. (The NBA's official list probably won't surface until Tuesday or Wednesday, but most of the big names have made their intentions known.)
The deadline to withdraw from the draft is on May 8th. Who has the most hanging in the balance over these next two weeks?
No. 1 Texas: Tristan Thompson and Cory Joseph
Jordan Hamilton is gone. The sophomore will sign with an agent, thus ending any possibility of returning to school. Freshmen Joseph and Thompson also have their name in the NBA Draft pool, although their futures are on two very different paths. Most reports have Thompson remaining in the NBA Draft, which, as we talked about at length on Saturday, puts Texas in a huge hole. The only front court returnee that saw any action this season would be Alexis Wangmene (who averaged all of 9.6 mpg) and Rick Barnes is not bringing in any front court players that can contribute immediately.
Joseph, on the other hand, seems more likely to return to school. Thompson is going to be a lottery pick this season. Joseph will be lucky if he gets drafted at all. But with Myck Kabongo coming in this year, does Joseph want to spend another season sharing the point guard duties? With Joseph and Thompson back, the Longhorns will be a favorite -- along with Baylor and Kansas -- to win a wide open Big 12. Without those two, Texas has all the makings of an NIT team.
No. 2 Kentucky: Terrence Jones, Brandon Knight, and DeAndre Liggins
As of right now, Knight appears to be the only one of these three that has made up their mind. He's a virtual lock to be a top ten pick, and with Marquis Teague coming into Kentucky next season, Knight would be forced to play off the ball next season. Jones is also likely gone. He has a chance to be picked in the back end of the lottery, and with the amount of front court talent Kentucky has coming in next season, odds seems long that Jones will stay. Liggins is a bit of an x-factor. His decision to stay in the draft may end up being the result of how well he tests out. Can he sneak into the first round as a defensive-minded three point marksman?
Kentucky is going to be either the preseason No. 1 or No. 2 team in the country next season, regardless of what decision these three players make. Without them, Kentucky will be young but talented, with isn't all that different from what the Wildcats have been the past two seasons. But if all three do return, Kentucky goes from being a very good team to one of the most impressive collections of talent of the past quarter-century. They would go from a Final Four contender to a national title favorite.
No. 3 Butler: Shelvin Mack
When Butler made their first national title game back in 2010, the Bulldogs were led by a three-man attack of Gordon Hayward, Matt Howard, and Mack. Hayward went pro after the 2010 season, and Matt Howard will graduate this spring. That leaves Mack, who is currently a borderline first-round pick, as the only one with a chance to be a Bulldog next season.
Butler has some talent coming back next season, as well. Khyle Marshall looks primed to be the next Butler star and is the kind of athlete you rarely see in the Horizon League. Andrew Smith is a solid interior presence. Floor leader Ronald Nored returns, as do Chase Stigall, Chrishawn Hopkins, and Garrett Butcher. Without Mack, this team will once again be at the top of the Horizon. But with Mack's scoring, leadership, and ability to knock down shots in the clutch, Butler has a chance to once again be a top 15-20 team.
No. 4 Pitt: Ashton Gibbs
Gibbs is an interesting case. There have been multiple reports that Gibbs has made up his mind to stay in the draft, but in recent days he seems to have backed off of those statements a bit. It would probably behoove Gibbs to return to school; he'd be lucky to get drafted this season.
He also has a chance to have a special season for the Panthers. Gibbs would be a preseason all-american and the focal point for the Panthers. Pitt can replace the production from Gary McGhee and Gilbert Brown this season, but losing Brad Wanamaker is going to hurt. Wanamaker was the Panther's best playmaker, which would put even more pressure on Gibbs should he return. The 6'1" shooting guard became Jamie Dixon's go-to-guy at the end of a clock, as Gibbs is one of the best in the country at creating a look for himself coming off of a screen. Without Gibbs, the Panthers will have some major question marks on the offensive end of the floor.
No. 5 Michigan: Darius Morris
Morris was one of the catalysts to Michigan's surprise resurgence this season. Averaging 15.0 ppg and 6.7 apg, he sparked a late-season surge that saw John Beilein's club win eight of their last 11 regular season games, getting an at-large bid into the NCAA Tournament and nearly knocking off Duke to advance to the Sweet 16. Morris, for what it is worth, is likely a second round pick.
The rest of the Wolverines are young, talented, and fit well into the system than Beilein likes to run. But Morris is the engine. He's the guy that creates the open looks on the perimeter for sharpshooters like Zak Novak and Stu Douglass. He's the guy that gets Jordan Morgan open looks around the rim. He's the guy that defenses have to focus on, opening up driving lanes for Tim Hardaway, Jr. With Morris, Michigan will be a top 15 team in the preseason. Without him, they may not crack the top 25.
No. 6 Xavier: Tu Holloway
There is no question that Holloway was one of the most valuable players in the country this past season. He averaged 19.7 ppg, 5.0 rpg, 5.4 pg, and 1.4 spg while hitting countless late free throws and clutch shots down the stretch of games. With Dante Jackson and Jamel McLean graduating this season, losing Holloway would mean a team that rarely went more than six or seven deep would be losing three of their top five scorers. There's an argument to be made that, should Holloway return, he'll be the best point guard in the country.
No. 7 Tennessee: Scotty Hopson and Tobias Harris
The Volunteers are in a state of turnover. Bruce Pearl is out, Cuonzo Martin is in. They have the NCAA breathing down their neck. And if Hopson and Harris remain in the draft, then eight of the ten players in the Tennessee rotation that averaged double figure minutes will be gone. Hopson and Harris both have the talent to be first round picks in the NBA Draft. If they return, Martin will have a solid foundation -- along with Jordan McRae, Skylar McBee, Trae Golden, and Jeronne Maymon -- to build on.
No. 8 Missouri: Kim English and Laurence Bowers
Like Tennessee, Missouri will be heading into next season with a new head coach, as Frank Haith replaces Mike Anderson. With Justin Safford the only senior member of Missouri to graduate, the Tigers will be returning quite a bit of talent -- Marcus Denmon, Phil Pressey, Ricardo Ratliffe -- regardless of whether English and Bowers opt to remain in the draft. If they do come back, Missouri will be a contender for the Big 12 title.
Others:
The Eagles are losing eight seniors to graduation this offseason. If Jackson returns, he's talented enough to make BC a contender for an at-large spot in the tournament. If he doesn't return, BC's leading returning scorer will be a walk-on.
With Austin Freeman, Chris Wright, and Julian Vaughn all graduation, Thompson is being counted on to carry the Hoyas -- along with Jason Clark -- next season. Thompson has the potential to be an all-Big East player.
The Yellow Jackets have a roster returning with some talent on it. With new head coach Brian Gregory, it will be interesting to see if Shumpert is willing to return for another season.
The Terps lose quite a bit to graduation, but Terrell Stoglin and Pe'Shon Howard both showed some potential this season. Williams will be one of the best big men in the country if he does return.
Shurna's couldn't stay healthy this past season, which may have cost Northwestern a shot at a tournament berth. Juice Thompson graduates, but with everyone else coming back, Northwestern has a chance to be solid next season with Shurna.
With Tim Abromaitis, Scott Martin, and Eric Atkins all coming back, Notre Dame may be able to withstand the loss of Ben Hansbrough next season. But that will hinge on Scott's decision, as his inside-outside ability was a large part in what made the Irish so dangerous offensively.
Thompson seems like he is going to remain in the draft, which, combined with DeAngelo Casto's decision to turn professional, will push the Cougars back to the bottom of the Pac-10.
The Mountaineers will already be losing a number of key players to graduation. If Jones opts to stay in the draft, WVU may end up being an NIT team in 2012.
Monday, April 25, 2011
Testing the waters: What teams have the most on the line? |
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