2011 NCAA Tournament: Sweet 16 West Region Preview

The West region may be the most intriguing left in the NCAA Tournament.

We have three of the best basketball programs of the last 25 years. We have an upstart program from the Mountain West experiencing their most success in team history. Three coaches have won a national title. The best team in the region has a massive personnel question mark and is stuck in a region full of tough matchups.

To top it all off, there is a legitimate argument that Arizona, the No. 5 seed in the region, shouldn't be here. They survived against Memphis after Derrick Williams blocked a Wesley Witherspoon layup attempt that looked like a foul upon further review. They beat Texas due to a five second violation that didn't appear to be a five second violation.

Oh, and Arizona will be playing No. 1 seed Duke out in Anaheim, which could very well turn into a home game for the Wildcats.

Best Storylines:

• If Duke and UConn both win, it will set up a showdown between two programs that have played their fair share of NCAA Tournament classics. In 1990, it was Christian Laettner hitting a buzzer beater to send Duke to the Final Four. In 1999, it was UConn "shocking the world" by beating the Blue Devils in the NCAA title game. And in 2004, the Huskies overcame an eight point deficit in the final three minutes to beat Duke and move on to the national title game.
  


• Duke and UConn will be the favorites in their Sweet 16 games, but both Arizona and San Diego State will likely be playing "home games". With the West regional taking place in Anaheim, its safe to assume that the west coast schools will be able to send more fans to the games. Its also safe to assume that few neutral fans will rooting for Jim Calhoun and the Huskies, while even fewer will be cheering on the Blue Devils.
  


• Steve Fisher doesn't exactly have a sterling reputation as a basketball coach, but that will change if he gets San Diego State to the Final Four. The Aztecs claim to fame as a basketball program is that MLB hall of famer Tony Gwynn played point guard for them in college.
  


• Its impressive what Sean Miller has been able to do in such a short time in Tucson. He's got the Pac-10 champion Wildcats into the Sweet 16 despite having questionable point guard play and inconsistent support for Derrick Williams. How fan can he carry this team?
  

What they need to do to win:

• No. 1 Duke: I'm going to look beyond the obvious, which is effectively integrating Kyrie Irving into the rotation. I don't think that is going to be as big of an issue as people are making it out to be. I'm much more concerned with Duke's front court. Derrick Williams is going to be a matchup night mare for the Plumlees or Ryan Kelly or Kyle Singler or whoever it is that Coach K decides to put on him. If they do get past Arizona, Duke is going to have to deal with San Diego State's front line or UConn's Alex Oriakhi. As has been the case all season, Duke's front line will be the difference.
  


• No. 2 San Diego State: We all know about the Aztec's front line. Kawhi Leonard, Malcolm Thomas, and Billy White are all talented, athletic, and aggressive going to the glass. They create all kinds of match up problems. The key for SDSU, however, is the back court. DJ Gay is one of the most underrated point guards in the country, and his importance to this team cannot be understated. He doesn't turn the ball over, he can create shots for his teammates, and he facilitates the offense. When he's hitting from three, he makes the Aztecs very dangerous.


• No. 3 UConn: Everyone knows about Kemba Walker, but the key for UConn lies in the other guys. Is Alex Oriakhi going to disappear, or his he going to be the offensive rebounding, low block force he was in the Big East Tournament? Is Jeremy Lamb going to be the aggressive slasher and scorer he's proven capable of being, or will his passivity take over? Can Shabazz Napier facilitate the team and allow Kemba to spend some time playing off the ball?
  


• No. 5 Arizona: Much like UConn, the issue for Arizona is what they are going to get beyond Derrick Williams. Momo Jones and Jordin Mayes have been incredibly inconsistent this season, but both played vital roles in wins in the tournament already. Throw in guys like Kevin Parrom, Solomon Hill, and Jamelle Horne, and those are the guys that will determine whether the Wildcats advance.
  

Players to watch:

• Kyrie Irving, Duke: So. Is Kyrie Irving healthy? Will he be able to contribute? Will his contributions fit in with what Duke has done this season without him? Duke was the best team in the country early in the season with Irving. But in the three months that he has been out, Nolan Smith has become a favorite for national player of the year and Duke has remained a favorite to win the national title. For my money, I think that Nolan Smith is mature enough and selfless enough that he only cares about winning. If that means that he has to take a bit of a back seat to Irving, the so be it.
  


• Kawhi Leonard, San Diego State: Leonard is one of the most entertaining players in the country to watch, and its a shame that he isn’t known on a more national scale. When dreaming up a prototype small forward, you think of Leonard. He’s 6’6″, he’s got long arms, he’s quick and athletic and explosive. He attacks the glass as hard as anyone in the country, but he can also lead the break when need be. By the time he fully develops, he’s the kind of player that can average 15, 10, 5, 2, and 2.


• Jeremy Lamb, UConn: Lamb has grown into an excellent complementary scorer for the Huskies. He can hit an open three, he can drive to the rim, but he is at his best when he's scoring in the mid-range, be it by pull-up jumper or floater. He's a streaky player, twice going on streaks of at least seven straight games where he scored in double figures (including currently). Lamb's issue, more than anything, is aggressiveness and assertiveness. When he is attacking and looking to score, he's a dangerous weapon and a great compliment to Kemba Walker.
  


• Derrick Williams, Arizona: Like Leonard, Williams is probably a talent that you haven’t seen enough of this season. He’s a versatile, 6’8″ forward that can score from any where on the floor. He’s been good enough this season to warrant consideration as the No. 1 overall pick come June. And he’ll be a nightmare for the Plumlees to cover.

Thursday Games:

7:15 pm, Anaheim, CBS: No. 2 San Diego State vs. No. 3 UConn

Key Matchup: Kemba Walker

When BYU was at full strength, they dominated the Aztecs twice, winning by a combined 28 points. Jimmer Fredette had 43 points in the first matchup, then he went for 25 points and nine assists in the second game. Kemba is a different player than Jimmer, but their effect on a game is the same. Kemba can win a game on his own, but if there is too much focus on him, his supporting cast is capable of buoying the team. Stop Kemba without selling out your entire defense. Easier said than done.

Key Stat: SDSU's defensive rebounding percentage

San Diego State is the second best defensive team in the country in terms of efficiency. The biggest reason for that? The fact that they hold opponents to the seventh lowest effective field goal percentage. UConn is in the 200's in effective field goal percentage, but they are 12th in the nation in offensive efficiency because they are terrific on the offensive glass. This game is going to be determined by how well the Aztecs limit the Huskie's second chance opportunities.

BIAH Prediction: UConn Huskies

With the style and pace these two teams play, its difficult to see this being more than a one or two possession game down the stretch. The Aztec's performance against Temple did spark a lot of confidence, while UConn has Kemba, the ultimate difference maker.


9:45 pm, Anaheim, CBS: No. 1 Duke vs. No. 5 Arizona

Key Matchup: Derrick Williams vs. Duke's front line

It cannot be said enough -- the biggest weak on this Duke roster is their front line. Derrick Williams is a matchup nightmare regardless of opponent. When he is going up against the likes of the Plumlees, that mismatch is only magnified. Duke doesn't have anyone along their front line that can match his strength around the basket or his quickness on the perimeter.

Key Stat: Arizona's three point percentage

The Wildcats are one of the best three point shooting teams in the country. They take, and make, a very large number of three pointers. But on the defensive end of the floor, the Blue Devils focus on taking away the three. Only four teams nationwide forced their opponents to shoot a lower number of three pointers than the Blue Devils did, and they held their opponents to just 31.6% from beyond the arc. Taking advantage of teams collapsing on Williams is one of the ways that Arizona wins games. If Duke takes that away, Arizona will be in trouble.

BIAH Prediction: Duke Blue Devils

When Derrick Williams is on the floor, Duke will have the better player at four of the five positions. That's tough to overcome.


So who advances?: Duke Blue Devils

In my bracket, I picked UConn. But with Kyrie Irving back in the lineup, Duke is just too talented. The Blue Devils were the best team in the country with Irving and Smith sharing the back court in December. What has changed?