2011 NCAA Tournament: Sweet 16 Southeast Region Preview

With Pitt's loss to Butler in the Round of 32, the Southeast region is now wide open for a run by any of the four teams to the Final Four.

The scary part is that all four teams are capable of making that run. Florida has been as impressive as any team in the tournament over the past month of the season. BYU struggled to take down Wofford, but they rolled over Gonzaga while Jimmer Fredette has gotten into a serious groove. Wisconsin is one of the nation's most efficient offensive teams and is coming off of a win over Kansas State that saw Jacob Pullen score 38 points while Jordan Taylor went just 2-16 from the floor.

And Butler? They are the only team in this region with any real NCAA Tournament experience.

Best Storylines:

• This is the first time since the back-t0-back titles that Billy Donovan has gotten his Gator team past the first weekend of the tournament. In 2008 and 2009, Florida missed the tournament. Last year, the Gators lost to the very same BYU team they are playing on Thursday in the first round of the tournament in double overtime.
  


• Not many folks still had faith in BYU after Brandon Davies got kicked off the team, but Jimmer Fredette and company are proving those doubters wrong. Will the BYU star be able to throw his team on his back for two more wins? Last year, Fredette had 37 against Florida, and that was before scoring 30-35 points was the norm for Fredette.
  


• The Badgers have had a mixed bag of success under Bo Ryan. They've been in the tournament each of the 10 seasons that Ryan has been at the helm, but this is only the fourth time they've made it past the first weekend. He's never made a Final Four. With a bracket that has parted, it is wide open in the Southeast. This may be the year for Bo's boys.
  


• This is the easiest storyline of the tournament -- Butler, the reigning national runners-up -- struggled all season long, but has returned to the Sweet 16.
  

What they need to do to win:

• No. 2 Florida: The key for the Gators is going to be the play of Erving Walker and Kenny Boynton. You know what you are going to be out of Florida's front line -- some rebounds, some scoring in the post, some blocked shots. Chandler Parsons isn't quite as consistent, but you know what he brings to the table. If Boynton and Walker can provide leadership, if they show good shot selection, and if they can create opportunities at the end of clocks. the Gators will be tough to beat.


• No. 3 BYU: The easy answer is ride The Jimmer express. And while that is very much the case, the key for the Cougars is the same as it has been all season long -- give him support. They'll need to knock down the open threes Jimmer creates, they'll need to defend to make up for Jimmer's lack of defensive intensity, and most importantly, the Cougars are going to need to make rebounding a priority.
  


• No. 4 Wisconsin: The Badgers success in the Sweet 16 is going to come down to the play of Jordan Taylor. Simply put, Wisconsin cannot survive another 2-16 shooting night from their starting point guard.
  


• No. 8 Butler: The Bulldogs are not the same defensive team that they were last season. But they are probably a better team offensively. If Shelvin Mack is hitting shots and Matt Howard is avoiding foul trouble, you never know. The Bulldogs weren't supposed to make it as far as they have the past two seasons in the tournament. You wanna best against them?

Players to watch:

• Chandler Parsons, Florida: Parsons is the most versatile player on the Florida roster and the guy that can cause the most matchup problems. He is a 6'10" wing that can handle the ball, shoot threes, and create assists when he puts in on the floor. He's also a terrific rebounder. The issue? He doesn't always show up.


• Jimmer Fredette, BYU: I'm sorry if this pick is boring, but the fact of the matter is that Fredette is the single most exciting player in the country to watch.
  


• Keaton Nankivil and Jon Leuer, Wisconsin: The Badger's two big men are incredibly important for Wisconsin. While both players stand in the 6'10" range, they also both have terrific shooting percentages from the three point line. That ability to shoot allows Bo Ryan to spread to floor offensively and use those two in pick-and-pop action, which has been pretty effective for them this year.


• Ronald Nored, Butler: There are a lot of very good ball handlers in the region, and if anyone can handle that assignment, its Nored.
  

Thursday Games:

7:27 pm, San Antonio, TBS: No. 2 Florida vs. No. 3 BYU

Key Matchup: Chandler Parsons vs. Charles Abouo/Kyle Collinsworth

Parsons is arguably the most important piece for Florida offensively. Neither Erving Walker nor Kenny Boynton are known for their ability to create open looks for their teammates. Parsons, on the other hand, plays almost a point forward role of this team. He also was the second leading rebounder in SEC play and is a knock down perimeter shooter as well. Abouo and Collinsworth will have their work cut out for them slowing Parsons down.

Key Stat: 71.2 vs. 64.1

Those are the average number of possessions these two teams average. BYU is more comfortable playing at a faster tempo than Florida is. The Gators, believe it or not, are a team that like to run sets, looks to get the ball inside, and then allows their play makers to make a play if that breaks down. BYU can win if they can entice Walker and Boynton to push the ball at their tempo. While they have been better this season, the fact of the matter is that the back court duo of the Gator's are not the best decision makers.

BIAH Prediction: Florida Gators

Florida is just playing too well right now. I think that Walker is able to resist getting into an up and down game. I think that Parsons is going to be too tough of a matchup for BYU defensively. And I think that the Gator's front line is going to overpower BYU. As weird as it is to hear, Vernon Macklin has actually developed into a fairly reliable post presence.

Having said all that, I'm hoping that BYU wins. Because if they do, it means that The Jimmer went off. When he does, there is nothing more entertaining to watch.


9:57 pm, New Orleans, TBS:

Key Matchup: Ronald Nored vs. Jordan Taylor

We've alluded to this matchup a couple times in this preview already. Nored is one of the best on-the-ball perimeter defenders in the country. Taylor is the most efficient point guard in the country. But when going up against a very tough defender in Jacob Pullen in the last round, Taylor went just 2-16 from the floor and settled for a bevy of ill-advised shots. I don't think the Badgers can win against with that kind of a performance from Taylor.

Key Stat: Turnover percentage, free throw percentage

The Badgers don't score a lot due to the slow pace that they play, but don't think that means that Wisconsin is not a good offensive team. Actually, they aren't good, they are great. The Badgers are second in the country in offensive efficiency, largely due to the fact that they only turn the ball over 13.3% of the time (the lowest in the country by a full percentage point) and they make a ridiculous amount of their free throws (82.3%, against tops nationally). Butler, on the other hand, ranks outside the top 200 in forcing turnovers and sending their opponent to the free throw line.

BIAH Prediction: Wisconsin Badgers

Like I said, Butler is not the same team defensively that they were a year ago. The Badgers are the kind of team that slowly grinds you to death, executing to perfection on the offensive end of the floor. It will be a lot of fun, however, to see Jordan Taylor and Jon Leuer share the floor with Shelvin Mack and Matt Howard.


So who advances?: Florida Gators

I just think that the Gators are playing too well right now. They are getting balanced production from up and down their line up, they have a couple of physical presences in the paint, and they seemingly have solidified the point guard position. Over the last month, Kenny Boynton has finally found a consistent shooting stroke and has been much better as a creator, while Erving Walker is becoming a killer at the end of games. He's hit some big shots late in games for the Gators.