2011 NCAA Tournament: Sweet 16 East Region Preview

The East region is the toughest region in the bracket. And it is not just because Ohio State is the best team in the country. Kentucky is dangerous as a No. 4 seed. They have two game changers in Brandon Knight and Terrence Jones. A third freshman, Doron Lamb, is capable of scoring 20 points on a given night and role players Deandre Liggins, Josh Harrellson, and Darius Miller are playing some of their best basketball of the season. And then there is North Carolina, a team that has come together at just the right time. Kendall Marshall may never make the NBA, but he is one of the most entertaining guards in the country to watch with his ability to pass the basketball.

Expect plenty of NBA scouts to be in attendance at Anaheim. As much as a quarter of the 2011 NBA Draft's first round will take the court this weekend.

Best Storylines:

• Ohio State is the best team in the country. They aren't the most talented -- and they probably aren't the most talented team in this region -- but they have players that understand and buy into their roles. They will have two tough matchups, regardless of opponent. Can they make it through?


• John Calipari is making a living on one-and-done players. And this team is no different, with two -- possibly three -- freshmen headed to this year's draft. Will he be able to break through?


• The Tar Heels have experienced a resurgence this season after underperforming for a season and a half. Can they complete that comeback with a trip to the Final Four?


• You have to love this Marquette team. A coach that came up on the JuCo circuit leading a group of over achieving, under recruited prospects and JuCo transfers. Marquette may be from the Big East, but this team is as cinderella as they come.
  

What they need to do to win:

• No. 1 Ohio State: The Buckeyes don't need to do anything other than play Buckeye basketball, because when they do, they are the best team in the country. What is Buckeye basketball? Offensively, it entails getting the ball into Jared Sullinger in the post and allowing him to make decisions, be it scoring on a post move or kicking the ball out of an open shooter. Defensively, they are tough and physical and they don't foul. When they are rebounding the ball and hitting their threes, this team is near impossible to beat.


• No. 2 North Carolina: Where the Tar Heels have an advantage is in the front court. Tyler Zeller and John Henson are not going to out physical anyone, but they can out run them. It would be interesting to see how many of Kendall Marshall's assists come as a result of those two beating their man down the floor. When UNC is scoring in transition and Harrison Barnes and company are hitting jump shots is when this team is at their best.


• No. 4 Kentucky: The Wildcats are going to need to get production out of their three freshmen. Terrence Jones and Doron Lamb. The two have combined for a grand total of 37 points in the two tournament games. Brandon Knight hit the game-winner against Princeton, but those were his only points of the game. The other key will be Josh Harrellson. Can he hold his own against teams with quality front courts?


• No. 11 Marquette: Get lucky? This team is going to be overmatched against every team they play from here on out. But this is a scrappy, blue-collar team that has been an underdog all season long. If the Golden Eagles are going to win, they need to take advantage of the mismatches that Jae Crowder and Jimmy Butler create.
  

Players to watch:

• David Lighty, Ohio State: Jared Sullinger is the Buckeye's star, but Lighty is the do-everything guy for the Buckeyes. He can defend four different positions. He can be a facilitator when the time calls. As he proved against George Mason, Lighty can be a scorer and a sharpshooter when he has to.
  


• Harrison Barnes, North Carolina: We all know how good the Tar Heels can be in transition. When they are forced into a half court battle, however, it is a different story. The Heels don't have a lot of players that can consistently create their own shot, which make Barnes so important. For the last two months, he has been playing like the all-american everyone expected him to be this season.
  


• Terrence Jones, Kentucky: Jones is the most talented player on the Kentucky's roster. He's also the most difficult to matchup with. At 6'9", Jones can score in the post and on the perimeter. He has three point range and the handle to put the ball on the floor and get to the rim. How many fours and fives in the East can matchup with that kind of versatility.


• Darius Johnson-Odom, Marquette: DJO is a big-time shooter and an explosive athlete that can score in bunches. As good as guys like Jimmy Butler and Jae Crowder are, DJO is Marquette's best offensive weapon.
  

Friday Games:

7:15 pm, Newark, CBS: No. 1 Ohio State vs. No. 4 Kentucky

Key Matchup: Terrence Jones and Jared Sullinger

Both Jones and Sullinger create massive matchup problems for their opponent. As mentioned earlier, Jones is a power forward with size and versatility that Ohio State can't exactly matchup with. David Lighty is probably Ohio State's best defender, but will he be big enough to defend Jones in the post? Dallas Lauderdale and Sullinger are not quick enough to stay with Jones on the perimeter. Will Thad Matta risk putting DeShaun Thomas on him?

Along those same lines, Sullinger causes a matchup problem for Kentucky. Josh Harrellson is the only player with the size and the toughness to matchup with him, but anyone in their right mind would believe that Sullinger will eat Harrellson for lunch. Kentucky's senior center has been terrific in the tournament, playing a role for UK similar to that played by Brian Zoubek for Duke last season.

Key Stat: Kentucky's three point shooting

Ohio State's strength on the defensive end of the floor is their ability to play aggressive defensively and force turnovers without fouling their opponent and putting them on the free throw line. The Buckeyes are 26th in the country in turnover percentage while allowing their opponents the fewest number of free throws per possession of any team in the nation. But where Ohio State struggles is when it comes to forcing their opponents into contested shots. They are 124th nationally in effective field goal percentage defense and 150th in three point percentage defense. Kentucky isn't a great shooting team and they don't shoot all that many threes, but they are 11th in the country in three point percentage. If they are going down for Wildcats, that could be the equalizer.

BIAH Prediction: Ohio State

I picked Kentucky in my bracket, but I am regretting that choice after seeing what Ohio State did to George Mason. The Buckeyes, right now, are playing as well as any team in the country. I'm just not convinced that Kentucky is going to be tough enough defensively, especially when dealing with Jared Sullinger, to beat the Buckeyes.


9:45 pm, Newark, CBS: No. 2 North Carolina vs. No. 11 Marquette

Key Matchup: Jimmy Butler vs. John Henson

Jimmy Butler is a tough matchup for every team. He's filled the role of Lazar Hayward as the versatile power forward that can defend and rebound in the paint, creating a mismatch on the offensive end with his ability to score and create from the perimeter. Henson will have trouble staying in front of Butler defensively, but with Henson's length and athleticism, it will be interesting to see if Butler can keep Henson off the offensive glass.

Key Stat: North Carolina's offensive rebounding

The Tar Heels aren't a great offensive rebounding team, but Marquette is thoroughly average on the defensive glass. UNC has every advantage you could want up front. They are bigger, they are longer, and they are more athletic. John Henson is a very good offensive rebounder while Tyler Zeller is above average. Keeping those two from getting easy putbacks will be a key focus for the Golden Eagles.

BIAH Prediction: North Carolina Tar Heels

As much as a I hate to see him go, Buzz Williams' team simply does not have the talent level to compete with UNC.


So who advances?: I'm going to say that North Carolina does. I can't see Marquette beating them in the Sweet 16, and should Carolina advance, they matchup well with either Kentucky or Ohio State. The Tar Heels have already beaten Kentucky -- back in December -- and they did it when they still had Larry Drew running the show. With Ohio State, for every bucket that the Buckeyes get inside thanks to the strength advantage that Sullinger has, UNC will get one when their bigs are able to beat him down the floor.