Friday, June 18, 2010

NBA Draft Prospects: Avery Bradley, Texas

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Stats: 11.6 ppg, 2.9 rpg, 2.1 apg, 1.6 spg, 37.5% 3PT, 1.5 t/o's

Size:

  • Listed: 6'3", 180 lb, 19 yrs old
  • Combine: 6'3 1/4" (with shoes), 180 lb, 6'7 1/4" (wingspan)

About Him: Avery Bradley entered this season with a ton of hype, even being ranked as the No. 1 overall recruit by ESPN over John Wall. And while its difficult to talk negatively about a freshman averaging almost 12 ppg, Bradley did not quite live up to expectations in his one season in Austin. While some of that was a result of being on a Texas team that simply could not figure out their issues, the major reason Bradley disappointed some people is because of the type of player he is.

Bradley is not a great offensive player. He's an excellent shooter off the catch or pull-ups off of one or two bounces, but that is about the only area he really excels offensively. He's not a great passer or shot creator. In fact, when he put the ball on the floor this past season, it was a virtual certainty that a shot was going up. He simply does not see the floor well at all.

This would not be a huge issue if Bradley was a great scorer, but he isn't. He really struggles once he gets inside about 10 feet. An exceptional athlete in terms of quickness and explosiveness, he seems to be the kind of player that can only get off the ground when he has a runway to do so. He struggled at finishing in and around the rim this year and he was very poor at drawing fouls and getting to the line. Some of this can be remedied by improving his upper body strength (he was only able to bench 185 lb twice at the combine) and teaching him how to elevate in traffic. What Bradley really needs to do is develop a floater and short runner. If he struggled to finish at the rim in college, it won't get any easier at the next level.

Players with Bradley's size generally project as point guards or combo-guards. Both of those roles require the ability to create shots, either for yourself or others. Bradley does not excel at either of those two facets of the game.

Where Bradley does excel -- and where he will have to find his niche in the NBA, at least in the early years -- is as a defender. He may very well be the best one-on-one defender in this draft. He's exceptional defending off the ball, capable of fighting through screens and keeping the ball out of the hands of a star. If that player does get the ball, Bradley has great length (over a 6'7" wingspan) and extremely quick feet. At the college level, he made life difficult for each and every player for which Bradley drew the assignment. Difficult to get the ball in a position to score, and difficult to make a move or get a shot off once that player made the catch.

The problem is that in the NBA, if Bradley is ever going to be a starter, he will have to be an off-guard. Will he be able to defend when night-in and night-out he is checking bigger and stronger players? Quick feet don't help when you are backed down to the block and you watch someone four inches taller take a turnaround jumper over you.

Comparison:
  • Best Case Scenario: Comparing Avery Bradley with a guy in the NBA is difficult to do, because there really aren't that many players with his skill set. Russell Westbrook is a decent comparison, but even the raw Westbrook is a better offensive player than Bradley, and he's a point guard. Maybe a more athletic George Hill? ESPN is comparing him to Monta Ellis, which I like in regards to athleticism, but not as much in style of play.
  • Worst Case Scenario: Again, its really tough to compare Bradley to anyone given his skill set. Who is a lock down defender and 12 ppg scorer in Spain's top division?
Outlook: Bradley will likely get chosen somewhere near the mid-to-late first round, and I have a tough time envisioning him ever becoming a starter in the NBA. He's not a point guard, and he's not big enough to be a shooting guard. But he does play defense. He relishes that end of the floor, and I'm sure there are teams out there that will keep him around simply to lock down a back court player that gets hot. If he can find a spot where he can play along side a bigger point guard -- i.e. a Tyreke Evans, a Dwyane Wade, or a Baron Davis -- which allows him to be a spot up shooter and a defender, he should be able to play a role for someone in the league.

Highlights:





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