Why is UConn struggling?

UConn was a top 15 team in the preseason, and rightfully so.

On paper, this team looked, and still does look, pretty good.

Kemba Walker was supposed to be a breakout performer at the point. Jerome Dyson, without AJ Price, Jeff Adrien, and Hasheem Thabeet to steal the lime light, was expected to develop into a star. Stanley Robinson is arguably the best athlete in the country, and there may not be a player more adept at creating points off of broken plays. Gavin Edwards has developed into a stabilizing force in the paint, rebounding the ball and scoring in the post with enough efficiency to garner some interest from the NBA.

Gavin Edwards has been a pleasant surprise this season.
(photo credit: Hartford Courant)

And the Huskies added a talented group of newcomers, with freshmen Alex Oriakhi, Jamal Trice, Jamaal Coombs-McDaniels, and Darius Smith teaming with semester addition Ater Majok, that were to be counted on to provide the Huskies with the depth and versatility we've come to expect from a Jim Calhoun coached team.

But the Huskies have been far from dominant this season, and perhaps the most disappointing team in the country.

That's what an 11-6 start will do to a team with a first round lock (Robinson) and four more potential pros (Dyson, Walker, Edwards, Oriakhi) on their roster.

Currently, UConn is on a three game losing streak, and after Sunday's loss at Michigan most pundits are placing this team firmly on the bubble.

It begs the question: what's wrong with the Huskies?

The biggest issue is their half court offense. Simply put, UConn cannot score against a set defense. Walker has not developed into the facilitator that many believed he would. Few in the country are better than Walker at leading a fast break, but there are few point guards in the country as inept as the NYC native is when it comes to running a system and controlling an offense.

Beyond that, outside of Dyson, UConn doesn't have anyone that can create for themselves in the half court. Even Dyson, who averages 18.4 ppg and 5.1 apg, is far from what you would call an efficient player. He ranks 12th in the country in possessions used and 44th in percentage of shots taken, but he isn't even in the top 400 in offensive efficiency. He turns the ball over too much, he takes (and misses) too many tough shots, and he doesn't hit threes.

In fact, as a team, UConn is on the verge of being historically inept at shooting from deep. They are dead last in the country when in comes to three pointers attempted (19.1% of their shot attempt are threes, and no major conference school has ever finished a season below 20%) and, as you could imagine, dead last in the country in the number of points they get off of threes.

What does all those numbers mean?

In basketball terms, the only way UConn can effectively score is in transition. For all of their shortcomings, there may not be a team in the country better in the open court than the Huskies. Walker is as fast as anyone with the ball in his hands, Dyson is unstoppable with a head of steam and a defender backpedaling, and if all else fails, just get the ball in the vicinity of the rim and Robinson will take care of the rest.

The problem with depending on transition to score is that it is totally reliant upon your opponent making a mistake. I don't think I need a scatterplot to prove that the number of mistakes a team makes is negatively correlated with that team's success.

Thus, the best times to run and attack in transition are off of a live-ball turnover (a steal) or off of a defensive rebound, preferably long jumpers, because they result in long rebounds and give the defense a running start heading the other way. Sure, it is possible to run off of a made basket, but it is much more difficult, and the Huskies are not Magic Johnson's Lakers.

UConn is doing neither well this season.

They rank 305th in the country at forcing turnovers and 191st defensive rebounding percentage.

So why is UConn struggling to win games?

Its simple.

The Huskies haven't been good enough at putting themselves in a position to succeed. Until this team gets better at rebounding the ball on the defensive end and forcing turnovers, they are going to struggle.

Having said that, it is more than just numbers with UConn.

Of their six losses, only one has been by double digits, and that was a 10 point defeat to Pitt in a game that was much closer than the final score indicates. None of those six losses should be classified as a terrible loss, either. Georgetown, Pitt, Duke, and Kentucky all look like Sweet 16, if not Final Four, teams this season. The other two came at Cincinnati and at Michigan, two teams that have spent time in the top 25 this year.

We've seen this look quite a bit from the Huskies this season.
(photo credit: Hartford Courant)

UConn had a chance to win all six of these games, but failed to make the big play or hit the big shot in all six:

• Against Duke, UConn was down 58-38 with 12:25 left in the game, but held the Blue Devils to just one field goal over the next 11+ minutes, cutting the lead to 62-54 with 52 seconds left. In that span, the Huskies missed six layups and made just 6-13 from the line.


• Against Kentucky, Walker went 2-4 from the line in a 40 second span with under three minutes left, and the Huskies missed four shots in the final 27 seconds that could have tied the game or taken the lead.


• Against Cincinnati, UConn finally made some clutch plays offensively, as Walker tied the game with a three at the 10 second mark, but Gavin Edwards fouled Lance Stephenson with 0.7 seconds left, and Stephenson hit both for the win.


• Against Georgetown, UConn blew a 19 point lead, but had the ball down 70-69 in the final 30 seconds, missing two shots before Walker finally turned it over.

It was more of the same against Pitt and Michigan, as the Panthers and the Wolverines were the ones that made the big shots and the big plays down the stretch.

Does UConn have that player?

Do they have a guy that can replace AJ Price, a kid that made so many clutch plays in his four years at UConn?

If they don't, than UConn may end up being nothing more than a competitive also-ran.