Great day for college hoops fans as there are some fantastic games on today. So if you're like me and you have no desire to set foot into the arctic air that has descended upon us, find a good spot on your couch and make your beer run early - the games commence at noon. My biggest problem today? I can only watch/record two games at a time.
There are five games on today between ranked teams:
So in case you missed it, my predictions for the five marquee games were Syracuse, Duke, Wake, UCLA, and Pitt.
What concerns me for this game is that Syracuse got beat because they couldn't defend the three. Georgetown was 12-21 on the game, but they hit 10 of their last 13 after starting out the game 2-8. The issue was just the Syracuse wasn't getting out on shooters. A lot of people say that you cannot play zone against a team that can shoot three's. That's not true. If you move well and communicate where shooters are (and when they are cutting through) in the zone, you can defend them. There are two things that the 'Cuse will have to do. First, ALWAYS know where Kyle McAlarney (and to a lesser extent Ryan Ayers as well) is. He can stroke it from 28 feet with consistency if you let him get going. The second is to make sure you always have a body on Luke Harangody. The big fella does a pretty good job on the glass, but also has been becoming much more of a jump shooter of late. You don't want to lose track of him.
I think 'Gody will have a big game today (I mean, doesn't he always have a big game though?). He usually excels when he plays against big men that are strong and stocky as opposed to tall, long, and athletic (that's why he torched Samardo Samuels for 28 points in 35 minutes and was shut down by Terrence Jennings, going score less in the last 10 minutes, when to Irish played Louisville).
For the Orange, the key is simply going to be to play with energy and emotion. I could go on and on about how Jonny Flynn needs to be a play maker; or that Paul Harris needs to capitalize on his size and strength advantage at the three; or how Syracuse should be able to control the glass. But the fact of the matter is that none of it makes any difference if the Orange come out and play the way they did against the Hoyas. The Orange are a very good team this year. They have talent, athleticism, shooting, size, a great coach, etc., but all season long they have struggled to get up for games at the start. I'm going to put this onus on the Carrier Dome fans today. That place, 30,000 strong, needs to be rocking today. If it is, I don't see anyway that the Orange can come out flat.
I think the 'Cuse gets it done at home on the strength of a 25 and 12 game from Paul Harris.
OK, back to the previewing. This is going to be a tough game for Georgetown. Duke gets all over you defensively, playing a switching man-to-man where they get up in the ball-handler starting in the back court. They start their defense out so far that it makes things very difficult for a team trying to run their offense. And what is Georgetown's MO offensively? Running through their offense.
That said, if Georgetown's guards can be strong with the ball, I think the Hoyas have a shot at this. Duke loves to get out and pressure the wings. Georgetown kills teams that do that with back door cuts. The key for Duke, like it has been all season, is to put enough pressure on the ball that Georgetown cannot get into position to make that pass.
I think the Hoyas should also run a lot of their stuff through Greg Monroe. They need to use him as a pressure release. Brian Zoubek as been much better this season, but there is no way he should be able to guard Greg Monroe 20 feet from the basket. If he does, Monroe should get lay-ups all day long.
I think Georgetown is going to have to go zone against Duke for one reason - I do not see how they are going to be able to stop Gerald Henderson. Henderson has been playing the best basketball of his life over the last seven games, averaging 17.4 ppg and shooting 10-19 from three. He's shooting 43% from three on the year, and combined with his athleticism and how high his confidence is going to be right now, I don't see anyone on the Hoyas that can defend him. Jessie Sapp and Chris Wright are too small. Austin Freeman is too slow. Maybe Jason Clark, but I'd hesitate putting a freshman on him right now.
I like the Hoyas this year, but the last time they played a team that defended like this (Pitt) they got run off the floor (more of a case of rebounding problems than anything, but still). I see Duke getting it done at Cameron.
The key for Clemson is going to be their defense. They need to pressure the Wake Forest guards and force them into turnovers or get them playing too quickly and ignoring the bigs. Basically, what Clemson needs to do is try and keep the big guys from Wake from getting involved. The Tigers are pretty good at doing that. They force 18 turnovers a game.
There may not be anyone in the country playing better basketball than Jeff Teague. In his last three games, the PG is scoring 31 ppg. He's shooting 55% from three, but he isn't really a three point shooter. He's a penetrator, and he can get to the rim just about whenever he pleases.
I know that this game is at home for Clemson, but I just think Wake is too big, too good, and playing too well right now for the Tigers to beat them.
UCLA sputtered a bit earlier in the season, losing to Texas and to Michigan, but they have really picked up their play of late, looking much more fluid on the offensive end. They are sitting at 4-0 in the Pac-10, with three of those wins coming on the road (albeit two were against the Oregon schools). A large part of that success can be attributed to Darren Collison. In Pac-10 play, Collison has looked like an all-american. He's averaged 17 ppg and 6.3 apg, while turning it over just five times.
This is a huge game for Arizona State. If they lose, it means that they will be three games (in the loss column) behind Cal and UCLA in the Pac-10 standings, both teams that they have already lost too. But more importantly, it will say something about this team. Good teams win games on the road. The Sun Devils are currently 1-2 on the road in conference, with the only win coming against Stanford.
If ASU wants to win, they are going to need a big game out of Jeff Pendergraph. UCLA is small up front, and Pendergraph is one of the best big men in the conference. UCLA has even made a change to their starting line-up, bringing James Keefe off the bench and starting Nikola Dragovic. Dragovic may be tall, be he is essentially a perimeter player and a jump shooter, which means that it should be that much easier for Pendergraph on the block.
James Harden is a great player. There is no doubt about that. But I'm starting to have my doubts about the rest of the Sun Devils. Rihard Kuksiks, Derek Glasser, Ty Abbott - I have yet to really see anything from these guys that makes me believe they are good enough to make the Sun Devils the team to beat out west. I think UCLA takes care of business at home here.
The matchup between Sam Young and Terrence Williams may pit the two best athletes in the country. Young has developed into such a good scorer. His perimeter shot is dangerous (38% from three), but he can also put the ball on the floor and get to the rim, using his size to bully past a smaller defender. T-Will is a pretty strong guy himself, and should be able to handle Young defensively. T-Will, offensively, needs to be able to get into the lane and create. He is really the only player that is going to be able to against this tough Pitt defense, and Louisville has a tough time offensively when they can't get the ball into the paint and kick it out. When they don't, they end up forcing a lot of contested three's.
There are two keys for Louisville if they plan on winning this game. Blair and Young are going to get their's. There isn't much anyone can do about that other than to make it tough for them. What Louisville needs to do is limit all the role players. Jermaine Dixon has been playing much better of late, scoring 17 in Pitt's win over South Florida. Gilbert Brown is an athletic play maker who can put up some points in a hurry. Ashton Gibbs and Bran Wanamaker are really good three-point shooters. If Louisville wants to hand Pitt their first loss, they cannot allow someone other than the big three to go off.
The other thing Louisville needs to do is keep Levance Fields out of the paint. He is averaging 7.0 apg this year, and he creates so many easy baskets with his penetration. If you make him a scorer/jump shooter, Louisville has a much better chance of winning.
All that said, I still think Pitt gets it done. I think their defense is going to wreak havoc on Louisville, who may not get a good shot the entire game.
There are a lot of other very good games being played today. Let's break it down by conference:
Big Ten:
Pac-10:
Big East:
ACC:
Big XII:
SEC:
The rest of the nation:
Saturday, January 17, 2009
Saturday Roundup |
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