NBA Draft Profiles: Tristan Thompson, Texas

Bjorn Zetterberg of SwishScout.com will be helping us out with all of our NBA Draft Profiles this year. You can follow him on twitter @swishscout.

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Stats: 13.1 ppg, 7.8 rpg (3.0 off), 2.4 bpg, 48.7% FT, 54.6% FG

Age: 20, freshman

Size:

• Listed: 6'9", 230 lb
• Official: 6'7.5" (no shoes), 6'8.75" (with shoes), 7'1.25" (wingspan), 9'0.5" (reach), 227 lb

Strengths: Tristan Thompson is about as raw offensively as big men get, but what makes him a potential lottery pick is how hard he plays the game. Thompson has a terrific motor. He's always attacking the offensive glass -- seeing him get five or six offensive rebounds was common, he grabbed 10 against Texas A&M -- and was impressive moving without the ball. The majority of the points that he scored this season came off of catch-and-finish situations, be it a put back dunk or a lay-in off of a dump down. Thompson is a bit undersized for the power forward position at 6'8", but he makes up for it with a massive wingspan and above-average explosiveness. He is strong enough to hold his position in the post on both ends of the floor, but still needs to add some muscle and mass to his upper body to help himself finish through contact. Thompson is also a terrific shotblocker and will only become a better defender as he learns to better position himself on the block.

Weaknesses: Thompson is far from a finished product on the offensive end of the floor. He's so raw, in fact, that there is some debate about just how good of a prospect he is offensively. We'll start with the worst -- Thompson cannot shoot the ball. He rarely steps out to take a jump shot. And while he is one of the best players in this draft at getting to the foul line, he shoots an abysmal 48.7% from the charity stripe. Thompson's back-to-the-basket game also is going to require quite a bit of refining. He doesn't have a go-to move in the post, far too often settling for fadeaway jumpers with a hand in his face. For him to be more than just a rotational player in the NBA, he is either going to have to develop a consistent post game or be capable of knocking down a 15-18 footer when he is left open. Thompson's defensive rebounding is another area of his game that is lacking. He has a bad habit of going after the ball instead of boxing a man out. That will hurt him quite a bit at the next level.

Comparisons:

• Best Case Scenario: The two comparisons that I have seen the most have been Paul Millsap and Tyrus Thomas. I'm not sure I love either of them. Thompson doesn't have the same kind of strength and wide body that Millsap does, and Thomas is not the kind of hard-worker that Thompson appears to be. The role that Millsap and Thomas play, however, is probably equivalent to Thompson's upside. A part-time starter that averages around 12-15 points and seven or eight rebounds.


• Worst Case Scenario: Joel Anthony. There are some things that Thompson is always going to be able to do on a basketball court regardless of the level that he plays at -- he'll always be able to get to the offensive glass, he'll always be able to defend, and he'll always play hard. That will earn him, at the very least, a spot in a rotation for a while. But if his offensive ability doesn't develop, his upside is severely limited.

Outlook: Thompson has some skills that will, eventually, translate well to the NBA. He is going to be able to defend and rebound. He has the tools, the motor, and, most importantly, the desire to succeed in those areas. But Thompson has a long way to go offensively. His shooting motion is likely to be completely overhauled by his NBA coaches, his post game needs to be expanded, and he could stand to use some added muscle in his upper body. It's not likely that Thompson is going to be able to see many minutes immediately until he addresses -- or at the least begins to address -- those issues. What the future holds for Thompson as a basketball player is unclear, but what is known is that he has enough potential to warrant a late lottery pick. Whether or not Thompson fulfills his potential is going to be up two him.

Draft Range: Mid to Late Lottery

And the experts say...

• Chad Ford: "Thompson needs plenty of work. Another year at Texas would really help his game. But his draft stock? I don't think it will ever be higher. Teams are looking for tough, athletic, versatile forwards. Thompson's work on the offensive boards alone should get him into the lottery. Right now, folks are willing to overlook the flaws in his game. If the flaws persisted over another year at Texas, I'm not sure they'd do it again."


• Draft Express: "His development could follow any number of trajectories from end-of-bench rotation player to NBA starter, from Carl Landry to Luc Richard Mbah a Moute. His ceiling is arguably higher than both, however, if further develops his post skills and re-tools his jumper. The said, such development is never a given, particularly with raw post players who are two-years older than most of their classmates, as is the case with Thompson. Ultimately, however, it is clear why Tristan Thompson is a likely lottery pick in the 2011 NBA Draft. His size, athleticism, and energetic style of play on both ends of the court should earn him rotation minutes early and his potential is certainly enticing looking to the future. Whether or not he achieves this significant potential is unknown, but even now, there is clearly a niche in the NBA for Tristan Thompson."


• Swish Scout: "Athletic, but undersized, talent in the paint with great post awareness, ball moves, motor, and toughness. Thompson has tremendous defensive potential and rebounding skill, but lacks a reliable face up jumper and is very inconsistent on a night to night basis."

Highlights:


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Deadline Decisions: Who were the losers?

Yesterday was the (ridiculously early) end to the testing the waters period for players with college eligibility remaining. Here is the full list of players that have decided to keep their names in or pull their names out of draft contention.

Who were this year's deadline losers?

Texas: The Longhorns were as brutalized as anyone in the past decade by early entry. Jordan Hamilton announced his intentions to remain in the NBA Draft a while back. Speculation about Tristan Thompson having hired an agent as gone on for nearly a month. And now, it is official that Cory Joseph will be headed to the NBA as well. That means that the Longhorns return ... J'Covan Brown and Alexis Wangmene? Texas went from a top five team to potentially missing out on the NCAA Tournament.


Tennessee: Over the weekend, both Tobias Harris and Scotty Hopson confirmed their intentions of remaining in the NBA Draft. For Harris, it wasn't much of a surprise. Most believed he was destined to be a one-and-done player since the time that he was in high school. It was a bit different for Hopson. He has the talent and the potential to be a lottery pick, but he was simply never able to put it (or keep it) all together while at Tennessee. Even with Bruce Pearl gone, Tennessee had a chance to be good with Cuonzo Martin coaching those two. With Harris and Hopson gone, things will be interesting in Knoxville. There are some interesting players -- Renaldo Wooldridge, Jeronne Maymon, Trae Golden, Cam Tatum, etc.

Michigan: The Wolverines suffered a pretty big blow when Darius Morris decided to keep his name in the draft. It looks like a good decision for now; Morris should sneak into the back end of the first round. That said, with Morris back, Michigan had a chance to be a top 10-15 team next season. With the amount of youth on that roster, John Beilein should still have a pretty good team in Ann Arbor. But Morris was one of those players that made everyone around him better. It will be interesting to see just how good players like Jordan Morgan and Tim Hardaway Jr are without him.

Butler: Its tough to say anything negative about Butler in this situation. Shelvin Mack was instrumental in getting the Bulldogs into back to back national title games. Keeping him around for three seasons is a win in this day and age. That said, losing him for next season will hurt. Matt Howard, Shawn Vanzant, and Zack Hahn are also gone, which means that the Bulldogs will be left with a lot of young players. It will be interesting to see how guys like Chase Stigall and Chrishawn Hopkins develop in the back court. If Khyle Marshall lives up to his potential next season, Butler should once again compete for the Horizon league title.

Maryland: Jordan Williams decision to enter the NBA Draft not only left the Terps devoid of any kind of experience (or talent) along their front line, it is also feasible to think that it caused Gary Williams to retire and could cost them a couple of talented recruits in Sterling Gibbs and Nick Faust. This story is far from complete, but its not to think that, when all is said and done, Williams' departure may have the most damaging long-term effects.

Pac-10:

• The decision by Jeremy Green to remain in the NBA Draft seems, on the surface, to be about more than just his draft prospects, because those don't appear to be all that good. Green was put on academic suspension for this summer, and while it didn't effect his eligibility as a player, it may have on his decision to remain in the draft -- he was back home in Austin, TX, the last few weeks. This may actually be a win for Stanford. Led by Dwight Powell and Anthony Brown, they have a talented sophomore class. They weren't going to be a tournament team this season anyway, and Green is a volume shooter that didn't make those around him better. Could this speed up the development of Johnny Dawkins' young talent?


• Washington State had the potential to be a major player in the Pac-10 race next season, but with Klay Thompson finally deciding to follow DeAngelo Casto out the door, the Cougars are left with Faisal Aden and Reggie Moore ... and not much else.

• It is well known what UCLA lost -- Tyler Honeycutt and Malcolm Lee both are gone -- but this is not new news.

Terrence Jennings: Louisville should be fine without Jennings. They are solidly stocked with back court talent, and Gorgui Dieng proved to be a more than capable shot blocker and rebounder in his time as a freshman. Throw in the returns of Rakeem Buckles and Jared Swopshire, and Louisville is going to be a top 10-15 team. Jennings, however, has a ways to go before he is an NBA player. He's got the size, the strength, and the athleticism, but NBA big men needs post moves. Jennings doesn't have a move -- singluar -- let alone moves -- plural.

Boston College: BC was going to be a loser this off-season regardless of what happened with Reggie Jackson. They lost eight seniors to graduation. But with Jackson gone, BC's leading returning scorer is not Danny Rubin, also known as walk-on Danny Rubin.

Minnesota: Minnesota is an interesting case for next season. They've had as much roster turnover as anyone in the country the last two years -- Colton Iverson, Trevor Mbakwe, Royce White, Devoe Joseph, Al Nolen. With Ralph Sampson keeping his name in the draft, they lose a front-court scoring threat and now two-thirds of their massive front line from a year ago. But with Mbakwe, Nolen (whoops, he graduted), Rodney Williams, and Austin Hollins all returning, there is still quite a bit of ability at Tubby Smith's disposal. (UPDATE: He may be returning.)

Notre Dame: The Irish could be in trouble next season. Yes, Mike Brey is staying in South Bend, but with Ben Hansbrough and Ty Nash graduating and now Carleton Scott remaining in the draft, the Irish are going to be left with a very thin roster. Eric Atkins looked promising as a point guard as a freshman, and Tim Abromaitis and Scott Martin return, but there is not much beyond that. Scott's versatility as a shooter, rebounder, and shot blocker will truly be missed.
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Tristan Thompson is going pro

After Texas lost in disappointing fashion to Arizona and Derrick Williams' broken pinky in the second round of the NCAA Tournament back in March, Tristan Thompson told reporters that he would be returning to school.

He wasn't asked the question, either. He offered up the information unsolicited. That's why so many folks actually believed Thompson.

Today, however, it appears as if Thompson has changed his mind. From the Austin American-Statesmen:

Tristan Thompson ... will not return to Texas for his sophomore season and instead will make himself eligible for the NBA Draft, a source close to his family said.

The source said he spoke to Thompson this week.

An NBA scout familiar with Thompson’s situation also said the player would leave school.

This is probably a good decision by Thompson. With the number of high picks that have decided to return to school, Thompson has a real chance of being picked in the top ten. As well as he played down the stretch of the season, Thompson is a prospect with some flaws. He's got terrific athleticism, a frame that can hold more muscle, and the wingspan to make up for the fact that he is a shorter than ideal for an NBA power forward, but he's still a very raw prospect. His skill set -- back-to-the-basket game, face-up jumper, etc. -- has not yet caught up with his physical tools.

Seeing as he is also already 20 years old, its likely that Thompson won't have to opportunity to go this high in the draft again.

It also appears likely that Jordan Hamilton will be entering the draft. He has yet to make an official announcement, but there have been reports that he is in Las Vegas working out already.

If Hamilton does return, Texas may be the favorite in what appears to be a weakened Big XII. The Longhorns will have a terrific back court, as freshman Myck Kabongo joins Cory Joseph and J'Covan Brown. The front court, however, will be a bigger problem. The lone returnee is Alexis Wangmene, who averaged just 9.6 mpg this past season. Jonathon Holmes and Kevin Thomas will have to make an immediate impact for Rick Barnes.

If both players are gone, Baylor appears to be the most talented team in the conference, although they failed to live up to that their talent level this year. Kansas loses a lot -- the Morrii, Josh Selby, Tyrel Reed, Brady Morningstar -- but Bill Self has stockpiled top 50 recruits and does bring back Tyshawn Taylor and Thomas Robinson. Texas A&M and Missouri will also factor into the race.
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The Real March Madness: Day 6

Everyone loves the first weekend of the NCAA Tournament. Four straight days jam-packed with 12 hours of do-or-die college hoops is more than most people can handle.

But for junkies like us, the next 13 days are just as good, for it is when the true Madness takes place. Over the course of these two weeks, we whittle some 347 teams down to 30 conference champions (the Ivy doesn't have a tournament). Auto-bids will be won. Bubbles will be burst. Buzzers will be beaten. And most importantly, a 68 team bracket will be made.

For a comprehensive listing off all the conference tournaments, follow this link or click the "Complete Conference Tournament Schedules" page at the top of the screen.

Here is what happened on Sunday: Another automatic bid was handed out, the longest winning streak in the country came to an end, and two overtimes were needed to settle the score in a Patriot League semifinal game.


Game of the Day: Lafayette 73, American 71 2OT

Jim Mower hit a 3-pointer with less than a second remaining to lead Lafayette over American 73-71 in double-OT in the Patriot League semifinals. Trailing by two with seven seconds remaining, Tony Johnson drove the length of the floor before kicking it to Mower for the game-winning basket. Ryan Willen hit a 3-pointer with ten seconds remaining in regulation to tie the game, and Mower hit 1 of 2 free throws under ten seconds left in the first OT to force a second over time. Vlad Moldoveanu led all scorers with 26 points, but it was not enough, as Lafayette upset the No. 2-seed Eagles on their home floor. The No. 6-seed Leopards will face top-seeded Bucknell in the Patriot League finals.



They were good too

- Robert Morris 64, Quinnipiac 62: Velton Jones did not score 29 points like he did in the NEC quarterfinals against Wagner, but he did hit a floater over two defenders with 6 seconds left to play, lifting No. 3 Robert Morris over No. 2 Quinnipiac 64-62 in the NEC tournament semifinals. The game was tightly contested throughout, with 22 lead changes and 12 ties. This was the third year in a row that Robert Morris has ended Quinnipiac's season, as Bobby Mo advances to face Long Island in NEC final.


Team of the Day: Stony Brook Seawolves

The No. 5 Seawolves didn't just beat No. 1 Vermont in the America East quarterfinals. They demolished them. Stony Brook led by ten for a good portion of the first half and most of the second. Vermont tried to make a late push, cutting a double digit lead down to 40-34 with less than nine minutes left. But Stony Brook held Vermont without a field goal for the final 5:26, going on a 29-13 run. They'll move on to play No. 2 Boston U. in the finals.


They were good too

- St. Peter's Peacocks: At the half of this MAAC semifinal game, the No. 4 Peacocks led the No. 1 Stags 40-15. In fact, in took St. Peter's 12 minutes in the second half to score two field goals, and they still led by six despite Fairfield's 21-2 run. Once they found their touch again, the ran away with it. Four Peacocks scored in double-figures, led by Jeron Belin, who scored 15 points and grabbed 7 rebounds.


- Virginia Commonwealth Rams: The No. 4 seed Rams put a halt to the longest active winning streak in the country, as they plastered No. 1 George Mason 79-63 in the semifinals of the CAA tournament.For the second day in-a-row, Jamie Skeen led the Rams in scoring, as he scored 21 points. Bradford Burgess added 16 points and Joey Rodriguez 13 for the Rams, who made 11 3-pointers, one shy of the tourney record. The Rams hit a three pointer with nine minutes left in the first half to make it 24-21, and they never looked back. They will face-off against No. 2 Old Dominion in the CAA tournament finals.


Player of the Day: Tristan Thompson, North Texas

The senior guard scored a career-high 36 points in No. 4 North Texas's quarterfinal upset of No. 1 Florida Atlantic, 78-64. But even more impressive than his 36 points is where they came from. Thompson, a Sun Belt Conference first-teamer, was a perfect 20-20 from the charity stripe and a perfect 2-2 from behind the arc.

They were good too

- Nate Wolters, South Dakota State: Wolters scored 30 points en route to the No. 5 Jack Rabbits 85-75 win over the No. 4 Mastadons of Indiana Forth Wayne in the Summit League quarterfinals. The guard was 7-18 from the field and 14-19 from the foul line. He also grabbed seven rebounds and provided five assists. South Dakota State now has the difficult task of taking on No. 1 Oakland in the semifinals.

- Leroy Nobles, IUPUI: Nobles scored more points yesterday than anybody in the country. He scored 37 points on 11-17 shooting including 6-9 from behind the arc. He was 9-10 from the charity stripe and also filled up the stat sheet with seven rebounds and two steals. The No. 3 Jaguars move on the the Summit League semifinals with the 79-55 win over the No. 6 Kangaroos of Missouri-Kansas City.



Sunday Results

Missouri Valley Conference Tournament Finals

#3 Indiana State 60, #1 Missouri State 56


America East Conference Tournament Semifinals

#5 Stony Brook 69, #1 Vermont 47
#2 Boston 55, #6 Hartford 49


Colonial Athletic Association Tournament Semifinals

#4 VCU 79, #1 George Mason 63
#2 Old Dominion 77, #3 Hofstra 69


Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference Tournament Semifinals

#4 St. Peter's 62, #1 Fairfield 48
#2 Iona 83, #3 Rider 59


Northeast Conference Tournament Semifinals

#1 Long Island 69, #4 Central Connecticut State 67
#3 Robert Morris 64, #2 Quinnipiac 62


Patriot League Tournament Semifinals

#6 Lafayette 73 #2 American 71 2OT
#1 Bucknell 66, #4 Lehigh 64


Southern Conference Tournament Quarterfinals

#2S Wofford 86, #1N Western Carolina 72
#1S Charleston 63, #3S Furman 58


Summit League Tournament Quarterfinals

#5 South Dakota State 85, #4 IPFW 75
#3 IUPUI 71, #6 UMKC 55


Sun Belt Conference Tournament Quarterfinals

#4W North Texas 78, #1E Florida Atlantic 64
#3E Western Kentucky 81, #2W Louisiana-Lafayette 76
#5W Arkansas-Little Rock 59, #1W Arkansas State 52
#2E Middle Tennessee 73, #6E Florida International 38


West Coast Conference Tournament Semifinals

#1 St. Mary's 73, #4 Santa Clara 64
#2 Gonzaga 71, #3 San Francisco 67


Monday Slate of Games


Colonial Athletic Association Tournament
Finals (Richmond, VA)

7:00PM - ESPN2 - #2 Old Dominion vs. #4 VCU


Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference Tournament
Finals (Bridgeport, CT)

7:00PM - ESPNU - #2 Iona vs. #4 St. Peter's


Southern Conference Tournament
Finals (Chattanooga, TN)

9:00PM - ESPN2 - #1S Charleston vs. #2S Wofford


West Coast Conference Tournament
Finals (Las Vegas, NV)

9:00PM - ESPN - #1 St. Mary's vs. #2 Gonzaga


Summit League Tournament
Semifinals (Sioux Falls, SD)

7:00PM - #1 Oakland vs. #5 South Dakota State
9:30PM - #2 Oral Roberts vs. #3 IUPUI


Sun Belt Conference Tournament
Semifinals (Hot Springs, AR)

7:00PM - #3E Western Kentucky vs. #4W North Texas
9:30PM - #2E Middle Tennessee vs. #5W Arkansas-Little Rock

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We can lament Michigan State's start, but Texas looked pretty good last night

I'd be willing to bet that 90% of the game stories and columns you read about Michigan State's 67-55 loss to Texas will try to answer the question 'what is wrong with Michigan State?'

And its a legitimate question to ask at this point.

Because this is not the typical Tom Izzo team fans in East Lansing have come to expect.

This team is not as physical in the paint as the Spartans normally are. They get beat on the glass and they get beaten up in the post. Kalin Lucas, Korie Lucious, and Durrell Summers were the stars in a clinic of what decisions not to make when handling the ball. In essence, this Michigan State team consists of a bunch of kids that want to show off their handle, make the highlight reel pass, and stand outside firing up jumpers.

That's not the kind of team that Izzo normally fields. And with four losses before the turn of the calendar, its about time to start questioning whether or not we all overrated this Michigan State team.

But by questioning what is wrong with Michigan State, we ignore the fact that Texas played just as big, if a bigger, role in the outcome of this game.


It ignores the fact that the Longhorn front court, led by 17 points and 15 boards (six offensive) from Tristan Thompson, dominated the paint, keeping the Spartan's big men in foul trouble for most of this game. It overlooks just how well Gary Johnson and Matt Hill played. It disregards Jordan Hamilton's continued growth as a player.

This Texas team is legit.

Thompson is well on his way to becoming one of, if not the best big men in the Big XII. His repertoire with his back to the basket is still a long way from being what anyone in their right mind would call polished, but he is active, athletic, and aggressive around the rim at both ends of the floor.

Hamilton still has a tendency to overshoot and to force tough shots. But he's knows how talented he is as a scorer, and he's learning just how much he is capable off offensively. He has a terrific feel for reading a screen set for him off of the ball and he's capable of reeling off four or five shots in a row when he gets in a groove. Tonight he also showed the ability to take advantage of a favorable matchup. Hamilton is 6'7" and strong, and when he was being guarded by one of Michigan State's smaller guard, he was able to take him into the post or use his dribble to get 12-15 feet from the basket, elevating over his defender to knock down a short jumper.

The Longhorn's defense is also starting to round into form. Granted, a number of Michigan State's 16 turnovers were the direct result of poor decision making, but Texas also forced Sparty into tough shots by playing solid, man-to-man defense in the half court.

Most pundits had Texas pegged below the rest of the Big XII's big five -- Kansas, Kansas State, Missouri, and Baylor -- coming into the season.

And even when you take Missouri's win over Illinois into account, there is a legitimate and valid argument to be made that it is Texas that is currently the second best team in their league.
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