Top 5 Center Prospects

This year's class of centers probably has the least star power and the least potential out of any position. As the saying goes "you can't teach height" which means that a lot of centers will get picked higher than their skills may warrant simply based on the fact that noone wants to pass on the next Amare Stoudamire or (more likely) a Brad Miller-type player later on in the draft. Click on the player's name for more in depth analysis.

1. Brook Lopez, Stanford: Lopez sits atop this list despite not having a huge upside (and a poor performance in the NBA Pre-Draft camp workouts). Not an overly athletic player, Lopez is a very good defender on the block and has an effective array of moves in the post. He does a lot of things well on the court and plays with intensity and a bit of a mean streak. He probably will never be a star in the NBA, but could end up being a center in the Brendon Haywood mold for years to come. His draft status has fluctuated, and he could end up going anywhere from 3-11 without surprising anyone.

2t. JaVale McGee, Nevada and DeAndre Jordon, Texas A&M: A lot of people will say that this ranking is too high, both players are way too risky, or that 7-footers with this potential almost never pan out. And to be honest, I tend to agree with all of that. But, as this list is the top PROSPECTS in this draft, and both of these players have the physical tools to be somewhere between Amare Stoudemire and Andrew Bynum, they need to be put up here. With the exception of Jordan being a lefty and McGee being a righty, both of these guys are pretty much the same player. They are long, athletic, and can run the floor, but are very raw on both ends of the floor (Jordan is a much better defender, although that is more a result of the horrendous defense McGee plays than Jordan's prowess). Unless a team falls in love with them during workouts, both should end up somewhere in the middle of the first round.

4. Robin Lopez, Stanford: Robin is the lesser prospect of team Lopez, although he still projects to be an effective NBA player. What he has going for him is that he is more athletic than Brook (both in quickness and jumping ability), and is a very active player. He blocks shots, gets offensive rebounds, runs the floor, and plays aggressive defense. His problem is that he does not have much polish on his offensive game and can get bullied in the post. He probably drops to the late teens or early twenties, but should end up providing a Joakim Noah or Anderson Varejao type spark to whatever team picks him (which could be a very useful pick given that at that range of the draft, the team he goes too will be a playoff team looking to fill a role).

5. Kosta Koufos, Ohio State: Koufos had a pretty productive freshman season, but has some glaring weaknesses in his game. He has a nice jumpshot with 20-foot range and a solid post game, but in the post he can only go to his right. There were times during the season when defenders would completely over play him to that side, and he would still try to force the ball right. Besides that, he has a pretty good feel for the game offensively, but he tends to be too passive. His shooting touch has drawn him comparisons to Mehmut Okur and Zydrunas Ilgauskas, but he has a way to go before he's as good as either of those two.

Honorable Mention: DeVon Hardin, California; Roy Hibbert, Georgetown; Ante Tomic, Croatia. Continue reading...

Top 5 Power Forward Prospects

The 2008 class of power forwards is loaded at the top, with three or four likely lottery picks in the group (depending on how you classify Anthony Randolph - I have him as a small forward). Regardless, even after you get passed that first group, there is still a good amount of talent, and four or five other players could sneak into the end of the first round with impressive workouts. Click on the player's name for more in-depth analysis.

1. Michael Beasley, Kansas State: Beasley may be the most talented player in this year's draft, but it looks like he will drop to the second pick (much like Kevin Durant did last year). There isn't much Beasley can't do on the court. He can score facing a defender up or backing him down, is a great rebounder, has unbelievable hands, is essentially ambidextrous, and has enough ball-handling ability to lead a fast break. He also apparently has developed his jump-shot so that he is deadly from the NBA three point line. The biggest question with Beasley has always been character and work ethic issues - does he want to be great?

2. Kevin Love, UCLA: Love is an interesting case. Skill-wise, he is very talented. He can shoot out to about twenty feet, is an excellent passer (especially on outlet passes), doesn't turn the ball over, has good moves in the post, and has an excellent feel for the game and basketball IQ. The problem is that he is not very athletic - at all - and has dealt with injury and weight problems in the past. But word is that Love had already dropped some weight heading into the pre-draft camp and was in the best shape he has ever been during his work outs. He may never develop into a star, but he is too talented to not be a solid NBA player.

3. Darrell Arthur, Kansas: Arthur is also an intriguing prospect. He is a great athlete - explosive, quick with quick feet, and can run the floor - and performed great during his workouts at the pre-draft camp. He also showed off a much improved jump shot, consistently hitting shots out to about 18 feet. He has a good back-to-the-basket game (and a very good turn-around jumper) and is stronger than his 215lb frame would lead you to believe. He has been moving up the draft boards (he looks like a lock for the lottery now, and could climb into the top 10), but how good Arthur becomes depends on how good he wants to be.

4. Jason Thompson, Rider: Thompson played in the MAAC, which means that the phenomenal numbers he put up the last two seasons must be taken with a grain of salt, but he did go against two players on this list and had two of his better games - 24 and 17 against Michael Beasley and 24 and 15 against JJ Hickson. Thompson has a complete game, but does not really excel at anything. He's an average athlete, has a good post-up game (but can't really go left), is a pretty good shooter, a below-average defender, etc. But his combination of size and ability (think Juwan Howard) should allow him to hang around the league for a while

5t. JJ Hickson, NC State and Richard Hendrix, Alabama: Both of these guys are good enough to be contributors in the NBA, but in very different ways. Hickson has much more potential that Hendrix given his athleticism and length, but is very raw and pretty much survived on his natural ability this season. Hendrix on the other hand has a pretty developed game and is incredibly strong (especially at establishing position on the block), but his lack of athleticism, size, and his tremendous bulk (he is 6'8", 250lb) gives him a ceiling somewhere around a Paul Millsap.

Honorable Mention: Ryan Anderson, Cal; Serge Ibaka, Congo; Marreese Speights, Florida; DJ White, Indiana. Continue reading...

Top 5 Small Forward Prospects

Many of the best small forward prospects fall into the combo-forward category in the mold of a Shawn Marion or (to a lesser degree) Tyrus Thomas. There isn't much star power in this group, but a solid number of players that could have long careers as role players. As always, click on the player's name for more in-depth analysis.

1. Danilo Gallinari, Armani Jeans Milano (Italy): Gallo is a typical Euro player in that he is tall and has a greater stroke. But as a player, he can do much more. He does not have the quickest first step, but effectively uses fakes to get his defender off balance. His game is very similar to fellow Euro Hedo Turkoglu. His handle is better than average, and he is able to take the ball coast-to-coast. He still needs to add some strength to his frame (6'9", 210lb), but still looks to be a lock as a top 10 pick.

2. Anthony Randolph, LSU: Randolph is another one of those guys with scary NBA potential - 6'11", lefty, athletic, perimeter skills, great scoring instincts. He still needs to add some muscle and some weight, and his skills are still raw, but he has already shown the ability to put the ball in the basket. This year, he was at his best when he would face a defender up from about fifteen feet and use his quickness, and his jumpshot and post game could still use some work. He will probably end up somewhere between a Lamar Odom and a Demarr Johnson (pre-neck injury).

3. Joe Alexander, West Virginia: Already a solid lottery pick prospect, Alexander has been supremely impressive in his workouts, showing off outstanding athleticism (see the picture). Everyone already knows about his versatile game - he can post-up smaller players and take bigger players on the perimeter. He has the potential to be an all-star down the road.

4. Chris Douglas-Roberts, Memphis: CDR has proven that he has the ability to score in a variety of ways, and you can't play for John Calipari for three years with being a solid defender. He is not a fantastic shooter, and is not the best athlete, but he is a smart player and could definitely provide scoring and hustle off the bench for any team. That is probably the role he is best suited for in the NBA.

5. Bill Walker, Kansas State: Walker is a bit of a risky pick. He has already had multiple knee injuries and surgeries, and is a bit of a head case (he was prone to picking up tech's, had some games that he went O-fer, and at times appeared to quit on his team). But coming out of high school he was a top-5 recruit, and has reportedly lost some weight and improved his athleticism close to the point that it was in high school.

Honorable Mention: Nicolas Batum, France; Keith Brumbaugh, Hillsbrough CC; Donte Greene, Syracuse. Continue reading...

Top 5 Shooting Guard Prospects

This year's crop of shooting guards is average at best. Only OJ Mayo, and potentially Eric Gordon, look like they have the chance to be stars in the league. But there are a good number of guys with the potential to be solid role players or big-time shooters off the bench. For the two-guards, I rated them more on the likelihood that they will have long, successful careers as opposed to the higher risk prospects with more upside. Click on the player's name for more in-depth analysis.

1. OJ Mayo, USC: A lot of people have Mayo listed as a point guard, but I think he is going to be more of a scoring guard in the NBA, even if he does end up bringing the ball up the court (think Gilbert Arenas). He doesn't quite have the quickness or explosiveness of Arenas, but he is as good of a shooter and maybe a better playmaker. He can come off of screens and knock down shots off of the catch just as well as he can off of the dribble. His handle is better than average, but could still use some improvement. He has shot up draft boards recently, to the point where it looks like he could even go third to the T'Wolves.

2. Eric Gordon, Indiana: Gordon had an up-and-down freshman year. He started off looking like a top 5 pick, but mailed in the end of the season after Kelvin Sampson lost his job. Still, Gordon's skill set is pretty impressive. He is strong and explosive, and has range well beyond the NBA three. He can hit just about any shot he wants. He is a little short for a prototypical NBA two, but his athleticism, strength, and range should make up for that. He probably will end up being a Ben Gordon type scorer.

3. Chase Budinger, Arizona: Budinger is an interesting case. His best asset is probably his intangibles - he has a great work ethic and is a smart player, especially on the offensive end. He makes good decisions, is a solid passer, and is excellent at reading screens. He also is a very good shooter, with excellent hops and a high release point. He still struggles when he's forced into an isolation situation, but his improving ball-handling means that this area could develop. He probably isn't going to be a star in the NBA, mainly because he is a bit passive, which is perfect for a third option. He projects as a Mike Dunleavy or Brent Barry type player.

4. Shan Foster, Vanderbilt: This ranking is a lot higher than other rankings I've seen, but I am very high on Foster. He is an unbelievable three-point shooter, and his awkward shot means he has a very high release point, especially when you consider his height (6'6") and long arms. He is also another one of those guys with a great work ethic. He is a little less skilled than Budinger, but is a better shooter with unbelievable range and a knack for being able to hit tough shots from beyond the NBA line, even with a hand in his face. He had a better senior year than either Jason Kapono and Kyle Korver, and is a better athlete than either of those two. Look for him to follow in the footsteps of those two.

5. Brandon Rush, Kansas: Rush is projects as a very good role player off the bench in the league. He is a good defender, a great athlete, and a dead-eye three-point shooter, especially when he gets his feet set and has a good look at the rim. He doesn't really have the make-up of a star, which is probably better for him because he is not talented enough to be one. He makes good decisions and seems to be the type of guy that could slide right into any system, play some defense and knock down open three's. What team couldn't use a guy like that?

Honorable Mention: Wayne Ellington, UNC; Danny Green, UNC; Courtney Lee, Western Kentucky. Continue reading...

Top 5 Point Guard Prospects

his year's crop of point guard's is pretty good, with as many as eight guys with a shot at being a first round pick, depending on how you classify guys like OJ Mayo (SG on my list) and Jerryd Bayless (PG). Five of them are potential lottery picks. So without further ado, here is the first of my position-by-position prospect rankings. Click on the player's name for more in-depth analysis of each player.

1. Derrick Rose, Memphis: Not only is Rose the top point guard prospect in the draft, he may be the best overall prospect. It is rare to find a player with his size (6'3"), strength, and athleticism that is as skilled as he is. He also has great point guard instincts in that he is able and wants to get his teammates involved, but in the tournament showed that he can take over a game and wants to take and make the big shot. I've said it before and I'll say it again - he is Deron Williams with Dwayne Wade's athleticism.

2. DJ Augustin, Texas: Augustin drew a lot of comparisons to Steve Nash throughout the season. He is an excellent shooter and a good distributor, who plays a very similar style to Nash (keeps the ball in his hands a lot, shoots three's off the dribble well, decent athleticism, crafty finisher in the paint). But Augustin's size (5'11", 170 lbs) is still a bit worrisome, as is his relative lack of explosiveness, but he has a strong build and is a very smart player.

3. Jerryd Bayless, Arizona: Bayless is an explosive athlete and a very talented scorer, able to get his shot off from just about anywhere on the court. But he seems to be more of a shoot-first point guard. He has shown the ability to take over games, but has a fairly poor assist to turnover ratio (1.33:1) and only averaged 4.0 apg. He will be the most successful if he lands on a team where he can be the lead scorer (i.e. a Gilbert Arenas in Golden State), otherwise he will need to develop the ability to consistently get his teammates involved.

4. Russell Westbrook, UCLA: Westbrook is another guy who is kind of stuck between positions. His skills are more in line with that of an off-guard, but he has a point guard's size. He is a very athletic player, with a lot of the same tools as a Leandro Barbosa - he is an explosive athlete that can get up and down the floor very quickly. Defense is by far is best skill as he can defend either of the guard positions, and is a terror in the passing lanes.

5. Ty Lawson, UNC: Lawson is a lightning quick point guard that was probably the fastest guy in the country baseline-to-baseline. He can weave through traffic with the best of them, and has excellent court vision. He has three-point range, but needs time to get it off. He also can lose focus defensively at times. More than any other point guard, and maybe anyone else in the draft, Lawson needs to be put into the right system. If he ends up with a team like the Warriors that like to get out and run, he can be a very good player.

Honorable Mention: Mario Chalmers, Kansas; Lester Hudson, Tennessee-Martin; Jeremy Pargo, Gonzaga. Continue reading...

NBA Draft Prospects - Who's Going to be a Bust and Who's Not?

This years NBA Draft is very deep and there will be a lot of guys that would normally be top 10 picks or lottery picks falling to the late teens and early 20's. This year's consensus top two (Michael Beasley and Derrick Rose) probably doesn't have as high of a ceiling as last year's (Greg Oden and Kevin Durant), but there are plenty of players that are potential all-stars if they work hard and continue to develop as well as plenty of guys that will be better than average role players for years to come.

This year, it seems like there are an unusual number of guys with out-of-this-world potential, but lacking any semblance of skill at this point - the kind of guys that will make an NBA GM look like a genius or lose his job. Who will develop into good NBA players and who will the next Kwame Brown, Sam Bowie, or Michael Olowokandi? For full analysis of this year's crop of prospects, click here.

Top 5 Players Most Likely to be a Waste of a 1st Round Pick
1. JaVale McGee, Nevada - He has the physical tools to leave scouts drooling over his potential. He's 7 feet tall. He has a wingspan of 7'6". He has a vertical of 33". He can run the floor and finishes extremely well, either by way of a dunk or a soft turn around jumper or jump hook. He can block shots and has good timing coming from the weak side. But there is a reason that he plays at Nevada - the kid plays with no heart. He gambles for steals, doesn't hustle, plays no defense (Draft Express has a statistic that says that he gets scored 66% of the time the man he is guarding touches to ball in the post. And that's in the WAC), doesn't have good footwork, and by all accounts has no work ethic.

So why is he projected at the end of the lottery? Because he could end up being one of the best centers in the league. He could also be gone after his rookie contract.

2. DeAndre Jordan, Texas A&M - Jordan has pretty much the exact same tools as McGee, only he is left-handed. Both are athletic 7-footers that are mobile, but are still raw offensively and weak defensively. Like McGee, Jordan has a long way to go before he is ready to play consistent minutes in the NBA, and it will take a lot of hard work (and one of the knocks on Jordan is that he does not have much of a work ethic). But there is a difference. Jordan has a bit of a mean streak in him, it's just a matter of whether or not it will come out. He seemed to be a bit passive this season and had trouble maintaining focus (although that was something that plagued the A&M team as a whole this year) throughout a game. But he could go on runs of three or four possessions where you really saw what this kid could be (take a look at this clip if you don't believe).

For Jordan, like McGee, it is all going to come down to how hard he is going to work and how good he wants to be in the league. Although he is not as polished offensively, Jordan hustles more and works harder on defense (he is still too weak to battle with NBA centers, but that will develop with time), which is what puts him behind McGee.

3. Donte Greene, Syracuse - I actually like Greene's game. He is a very good, if streaky, shooter that doesn't have a conscience. He ball-handling ability doesn't go much farther than a two dribble drive to the basket, and he's a bit inconsistent if he has to shoot on the move (i.e. not spotting-up). He would be a nice as a second round pick to fill a role if he was 6'5". But he's 6'10", So scouts are going to see that length and athleticism and think that he can play the role of combo forward, when in fact he isn't anything more than a three point gunner. He is going to draw comparisons to guys like Rashard Lewis and Mike Dunleavy, when in fact he isn't much more than a poor man's Al Harrington.

He may not end up being a bust, depending on how he does in the pre-draft camp and his work outs (if he struggles and drops to the end of the first round/start of the second round, he's not a bad risk) and where he ends up being taken. But he is way too risky with too low of an upside to garner a lottery pick, especially in this year's draft.

4. Kevin Love, UCLA - More than anyone this side of Tyler Hansbrough, Kevin Love's game may by the most suited to college ball. He is a very smart player, a great rebounder, big and strong, and a phenomenal passer for his size. He has a great touch around the rim and on the perimeter, but he is very slow. He also does not possess great athleticism or explosiveness. He has had back and knee problems through out his career, and still could probably drop 20-25 pounds (which is worrisome given it has been an issue since his high school days). Even is he does, there is still a question of who he could guard at the net level - he's too slow for perimeter players, but may be too short for centers.

Love is all over the board right now - some have him as a lottery lock (even top 10), others are saying he could drop to the late teen's. Regardless, Kevin Love is talented and a smart player, it just depends on whether or not he will be able to physically go up against the likes of Amare Stoudamire or Chris Bosh.

5. Kosta Koufus, Ohio State - Koufus is an especially interesting case because of the rumors that he may end up playing in Greece with center BJ Mullins going to Ohio State next year. Koufus is projected as a mid-first round pick this year, which is probably where he should be given his skill set. He is 6'11" with some nice post moves and NBA three-point range. He defense was hidden by OSU's 2-3 zone, but he has a strong base and blocks some shots. The problem is that he has dual Greek citizenship, and although he grew up here, he still has strong ties in Greece (including playing on the national team). If he doesn't like where he is picked or who he is picked by (assuming he stays in the draft), there is the possibility that he doesn't even suit up for that team and goes to play in Europe.

More likely than not, Koufus will stay in the draft and play in the NBA next year, but if your a GM do you really want to take the chance that he won't, especially in a draft as talented as this one is?


Top 5 Players Most Likely to Fulfill Their Potential
1. Anthony Randolph, LSU - Randolph is another one of those guys loaded with potential. He is 6'11" with long arms, mobility, athleticism, but a fairly skinny frame. But he is still only 18 years old. The difference between him and a guy like JaVale McGee is that Randolph already has a lot of offensive skills, and he is much more of a perimeter oriented player. While he is still raw physically, he already has fantastic instincts - he is just able to put the ball in the basket. His jump shot is a little awkward looking, but he can hit it to about 15 feet. He is also able to take a rebound and go coast to coast and finish on the other end with a dunk or hit a teammate for an open shot or lay-up.

I only saw him play twice this year, but both times I came away very impressed. He still has a ways to go before his body is NBA ready, but if he continues to develop his game he could be scary good.

2. Brook Lopez, Stanford - One of the things you look for when scouting prospects in any sport is work ethic and intensity. Lopez has both of those. He proved during the off-season he has the dedication to turn his body into NBA form by adding 25 pounds of muscle. He still could use some added strength, but not too much as it will cut into his mobility and athleticism. Another reason that he is likely to live up to expectations is that, despite being projected as a top 5 pick, he really does have a sky-high ceiling. He doesn't have the physical tools of a DeAndre Jordan, but he is much better-than-average about just about all facets of the game. If you expect the second coming of Brendan Haywood, and you end up with Chris Kaman, you're happy. If you expect Dwight Howard and get Chris Kaman, you're probably not.

3. Eric Gordon, Indiana - Gordon's lofty expectations, and his draft stock, fell as he sleep-walked his way through the final third of Indiana's season, but it doesn't diminish what this guy can do. He is a great athlete - explosive, quick, and strong - and great scorer. He can hit just about any shot he wants, and has range well beyond the NBA three-point line. He is a bit short for a two-guard, however, and the biggest question with him will be whether or not he can switch over and play the point at all. If he can, he could end up being a guy used like Ben Gordon.

It does not look good for a player when he gives up on his teammates because of a bad situation, but that is exactly what Gordon did. Does he really have the heart to play for a team that is going to be near the bottom of the league? Who knows, but if that is the biggest problem with his character in this day and age, that isn't really all that bad (see Derrick Caracter or Robert Dozier).

4. DJ Augustin, Texas - Skill-wise, Augustin can do anything you ask from a point guard. He has a great handle, great vision (especially in the open floor), he has NBA range, he can finish in the paint with floaters or off the glass, and he is unselfish. He needs to get stronger to be able to defend NBA point guards, but the quickness is there. The biggest thing is that this year Augustin proved that he was a potent scorer, averaging almost 20 ppg.

Because of his relatively small stature and his average athleticism, Augustin has fallen a bit on draft boards. He is receiving a lot of the same knocks that Jameer Nelson got when he came out, but Nelson has turned out to be a very solid NBA point guard.

5. Derrick Rose, Memphis - Part of the reason that Derrick Rose is so low on this list is that he is so highly rated. After some dominating performances in the NCAA tournament, this kid looks like a sure thing (I would even take him over Michael Beasley at this point). The problem is that everyone believes that. In reading about him, I've seen people compare him to everyone from Dwayne Wade to Deron Williams to a bigger Chris Paul to mini-Lebron James. Those are four pretty good basketball players, and that's a high ceiling for a guy that really seemed to figure it out for only about the last seven or eight games of his freshman season.

As much as I like the mini-LBJ comparison because of the similar physical tools - athleticism, strength, quickness - the best comparison is probably Deron Williams, which still will make Rose a top 5 point guard. Still, it's tough to live up to expectations when there are people saying that your worst-case scenario will be Deron Williams.


Top 5 Value Picks
1. Marreese Speights, Florida - Speights still needs to greatly improve the effort his gives on the defensive end, but offensively this guy is as good as they come. He played behind three NBA players his freshman year (Joakim Noah, Al Horford, Chris Richard) but this season averaged 25 points and 14 rebounds per 40 minutes. Fundamentally, he is still not quite there, but he is a terrific athlete with long arms who has a nose for the ball. Think somewhere between Al Jefferson and Brandon Bass, which is pretty good for a guy who will probably drop to twenties.

2. Russell Westbrook, UCLA - Westbrook brings a lot of things to the table. He is a tremendous athlete with explosive quickness and leaping ability, he is an unbelievable defender (both on the ball and playing the passing lanes), and he is a good passer and very unselfish (4 assists per game). He still needs to develop his offensive game a bit, but he is a late bloomer that still needs to grow into his body. Right now he is looking at the end of the lottery or the middle of the first round, but he could end up being a role-player/sixth-man in the Leandro Barbosa mold.

3. Danny Green, UNC - Green is a defensive stopper. He is 6'6", 215lb, which gives him the size to match-up with NBA wings. He is a tough kid that loves contact and isn't afraid to get up in someone's face defensively. He also has a nice offensive game, averaging 11.5 ppg in just over 22 minutes, and can hit open three's out to NBA range. Depending on how much his offense comes around, he will end up being in the Raja Bell, Bruce Bowen mold. What NBA team wouldn't want to use a second round pick (that's where Green is being projected) on a guy like that.

4. Robin Lopez, Stanford - Robin Lopez is much less-developed, especially offensively, than his brother is, but is still a good NBA prospect because of his size, athleticism, and determination. He is a mobile 7-footer with long arms that loves playing defense, hustles his tail off, and is a very emotional player. He is projected as a late first-round to early second-round pick, but looks to be another Anderson Varejao/Joakim Noah, with the long hair to boot.

5. Richard Hendrix, Alabama - Hendrix is 6'8", 250lb of solid muscle, and is not afraid to use it. He is a very good rebounder because he takes up a ton of space and is impossible to move, but also has a nice array or post move to go to. Defensively, he's not going to block any shots but he is going to make life miserable for any one trying to establish position against him. He is projected all over the board, from late first-round to a second round pick, but he looks like another Paul Millsap, who dropped to 47th last year but is having a very productive season. Continue reading...