NBA Draft: Prospect overview

The NBA Draft is tomorrow, and this year it is as wide open as any that I can remember. It seems like every so called expert differs on everything and everyone except for Blake Griffin.

Why?

Because outside of Griffin, every potential lottery pick has some serious question marks. But never fear, I'm here to help you. While I may not technically be as qualified as an NBA GM or, say, Chad Ford, I can guarantee that I can be just as bad.

Let's take a look at this year's class of college prospects.

Most likely to be a star: This is easy. Blake Griffin maybe? Look, the guy is 6'10", a freak athlete, has a pretty well-developed offensive game, and is a tireless worker. Barring injury, I don't see anyway he doesn't develop into a top five power forward for a decade.

Runner-up: I'm going with James Harden on this one. There are definitely players in this draft with higher ceilings, but not many with the all-around skill set and knowledge of the game that Harden has. He really knows how to score the basketball, but generally doesn't force too much. He probably won't ever be a go-to, 25 ppg guy, but I wouldn't put making an all-star team or three while playing a Manu Ginobli/Josh Howard type supporting role out of the realm of possibility.


Most likely to be a bust: Most people would probably say Austin Daye made a dumb decision going pro. I think he made a great (business) decision. Daye oozes potential, but did not show much in the way of improvement from his freshman to his sophomore year. To be honest, I don't ever see Daye developing into much of a pro. He has an attitude problem, does not seem like the hardest worker (how did he not put on any weight last summer?), and simply does not have a frame that can hold the weight he needs to be a successful pro. That said, I still believe this was a smart decision by Daye to go pro. If he returned to school and had another mediocre year, it really would have hurt his draft status. There is only so long you can have potential or a high upside before people realize you just simply aren't that good. He is a first-rounder this year. Why not take the guaranteed money?

Runner-up: BJ Mullens. As you will see in a post tomorrow, Mullens fits the mold of a guy that will never develop as a pro (see Spencer Hawes, Chris Mihm, Darko, etc.). I like what Mullens brings to the table in terms of size and athleticism, but if he could barely crack the Ohio State rotation, how will he be able to contribute in the NBA.


Riskiest pick in the draft: I'm going with Demar Derozan. The kid has a ton of potential, but he had an up and down freshman year. He seemed like it took him a while to get used to the physicality of major college basketball, and as a result he did not really gain his confidence until the end of the season. But he ended the season on fire, nearly averaging 20 and 10 during USC's run through the Pac-10 tournament before playing very well in two NCAA games. But a lot of that late success was a result of his tremendous athleticism. If he puts it all together, he could develop into some combination of Vince Carter and Gerald Wallace. But if not, he could be the next Gerald Green.

Runner-up: Hasheem Thabeet. Yes, Thabeet is 7'3" with all kinds of length and athleticism. He is as good of a natural shot-blocker as there has been coming out of the college ranks. It isn't hard to understand why he draws comparisons to Dikembe Mutumbo. But unless Thabeet develops some semblance of a post game and manages to put on some strength, he may be nothing more than a shot blocker.

Runner-up #2: DeJuan Blair, for one simple reason - the guy has bad knees. He had surgery on both acl's in high school, and when a guy has weight problems and bad knees at 20, it generally doesn't bode well for the future. To be fair, it has been reported that Blair did not miss one practice or game because of his knees in two years at Pitt.


Least risky pick in this draft: Discounting Griffin from the conversation. I don't think Stephen Curry is ever going to make an all-star team. He may never average 15 ppg in the league. But Curry is a smart player, a crafty defender, and an unbelievable shooter. I would be shocked if he didn't hang around the NBA for 12-15 years as a hired gun. Tell me, what's the difference between Curry and a guy like David Wesley?

Runner-up: Gerald Henderson, as long as you temper your expectations. Henderson is long, athletic, plays defense and hustles. His offensive repertoire can still use some improvement, but if you are expecting a Dahntay Jones/Shannon Brown kind of role player - a guy that will contribute in ways that don't necessarily show up in a box score - Henderson should produce right away.

Second round pick most likely to make GM's regret passing on them: I love Danny Green as a pro prospect. Here is a 6'6" wing that can get out and defend three positions on the perimeter, but is also a solid offensive player and excellent three point shooter. Bruce Bowen anyone?

Runner-up: DeMarre Carroll. I just think this guy is cut out to be a pro. He has size, athleticism, and can play inside or outside. Concerns over a liver condition will probably drop him into the 2nd round, but keep an eye on this kid next year.


Five years from now, the top five players from this draft will be:

1. Blake Griffin

2. James Harden

3. Demar Derozan

4. Steph Curry

5. Hasheem Thabeet
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NBA Draft Prospects: Patty Mills, St. Mary's

Stats: 18.4 ppg, 3.9 apg, 2.2 spg, 2.9 t/o's, 40.2% FG, 33.8% 3PT, 85.9% FT

Listed Size: 6'0", 175 lb, 8/11/1988 (20 years old)

(photo credit: Contra Costa Times)

About Him: Last summer, Patty Mills was shooting up NBA draft boards. Why? Not only was he the only college guy playing in the Olympics, he also just so happened to be lighting up Beijing - including dropping 20 (along with 3 steals and 2 assists) on the USA team. And while he looked great in the Olympics, when he came back to school, Mills did little to ease the previous concerns about his game. He ended the year by breaking a bone in his hand and sitting out most of the last two months of the year.

In fact, Mills may have actually hurt his draft status this season. But before we get to the negatives, let's look at what he does well. Mills is in the conversation with Darren Collison and Ty Lawson has the fastest guys in this years draft class. He can really get out and lead the break, as he is able to beat defenders down the floor.

His quickness also makes him a dangerous player in the half court as he can (theoretically) turn the corner on most defenders, especially in a pick-and-roll situation. Another aspect where Mills' quickness makes him dangerous is in the passing lanes as he averaged well over 2 spg this past season. This helps make up for the fact that Mills does not project as a great defensive player in a 1-on-1 setting - his size and strength is not quite up to NBA standards even for a PG.

Mills is also an excellent shooter from deep. He has picture perfect form, a quick release, and can hit it from about 25 feet consistently off the dribble or the catch. This is also Mills' biggest problem - he falls in love with this shot, and has a tendency to force tough ones (he led the class of PG's with 3.3 contested threes attempted per game).

Not only does this take away from his efficiency as a scorer (he shots just under 34% from deep), but he means that Mills is not taking advantage of his quickness. You would think a guy with his first step would be able to get into the paint at will, but Mills did not. There are two possible reasons for this: Mills is neither a great ballhandler or a great finisher in the paint. He is not explosive enough to challenge people at the rim, and he has yet to develop a floater (a shot which he must if he ever plans on sticking in the league). Mills did not have the confidence in his penetration ability, and thus settled for tough threes.

Comparisons: Best Case: Less athletic Bobby Jackson, Aaron Brooks; Worst Case: Poor man's Luke Ridnour.

Bottom Line: Mills definitely has some athletic tools that could end up making him an NBA player, but he has yet to learn how to use those tools within his game. Short, scoring PG's that shoot a lot are a dime a dozen. Will he ever learn how to use his quickness? Right now he looks like an early second rounder.

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NBA Draft Prospects: DaJuan Summers, Georgetown

Stats: 13.6 ppg, 4.1 rpg, 1.3 apg, 2.6 t/o's, 1.1 spg, 47.4% FG, 38.5% 3PT, 71.3% FT

Listed Size: 6'8", 241 lb, 1/24/1988 (21 years old)

(photo credit: Flickr)

About Him: DaJuan Summers has the physical tools to be a solid NBA player. He is a strong 6'8" with a huge wingspan (7'2") and an above average athlete. He is the kind of player that could cause match-up nightmares for NBA teams, being that he is big enough to play in the post (on both ends of the floor) but also has the athleticism to play on the perimeter.

The issue with Summers is not his athleticism, it is his game. Right now, he really only has one skill that is NBA ready, and that is his jump shot, specifically his stand-still three. Summers hit 38.5% of his threes this past season, but according to Synergy Sports, almost 50% of his catch-and-shoot threes were taken with a hand in his face. The difference in his percentages are startling - 14/54 when contested, 27/60 when open.

This can tell us two things. First, Summers is a very good catch-and-shoot guy. But more importantly, it exemplifies one of the biggest cons against Summers - his decision making. Playing in an offense like Georgetown's, Summers should not be taking 20% of all his shots from three with a hand in his face.

Summers just is not a very efficient player - he averaged .96 PPP over all, 1.16 PPP finishing at the rim, and just 1.3 apg vs. 2.6 t/o's. It isn't just a case of efficiency, it seems to be a matter of decision making. Summers often forced drives to the rim, which resulted in tough shots at the rim or tough pull-ups (which he does not shoot at a very good slip).

Summers has a ton of potential on the offensive end, but he is still a long way from fulfilling that potential. Outside of his jumper, he does not do much well offensively. He is not a great ball handler (although he did show an ability to get to the rim on straight line drives), he does not have much of a post game, and when he isn't shooting from a standstill, he is not very effective.

Defensively, it is tough to know how good Summers will be as G'Town played quite a bit of zone. He looked a bit lazy at times during his Hoya career, but, like his offensive game, his athleticism and tools give him a lot of potential.

Comparisons: Best Case: Tim Thomas, Donyell Marshall; Worst Case: James Jones.

Bottom Line: It is all going to come down to work for Summers. Will he put in the effort to become an effective player in the league? If he does, his mismatch potential could allow him to be one of those guys that hangs around for a while.

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NBA Draft Prospects: Darren Collison, UCLA

Stats: 14.4 ppg, 4.7 apg, 1.6 spg, 2.5 t/o's, 50.9% FG, 39.2% 3PT, 89.7% FT

Listed Size: 6'1", 165 lb, 8/23/1987 (21 years old)

(photo credit: Achievement Journal)

About Him: A lot of people questioned Darren Collison for going back to school for his senior season. He had already been to three Final Fours and every in the country recognized him as one of the best point guards around. How much more could he really prove to NBA scouts?

For the most part, we knew who and what Collison was as a player. Offensively, he really doesn't do anything spectacularly, but he does everything well. He's quick enough to get by his man and into the lane. He is a good finisher around the rim, using a variety of floaters and short pull-ups when he can't get all the way to the bucket. He's a good three point shooter (the 53% he shot as a junior came back to earth his senior year - 39%), but oddly enough he seems to be more comfortable shooting off the dribble. He doesn't have the quickest release in the world, but when he does get his feet set he can knock them out pretty consistently.

The place he really improved as a senior was with his pull-up jumper. Collison used to be a guy that would only shoot a three or go to the rim. This season, he showed some ability in the mid-range game, knocking down 15 foot pull-ups regularly. This is an important shot to have for an NBA point guard, as finishing at the rim is much more difficult with 7 footers on every team.

Collision had his best season yet as a playmaker, averaging 4.7 apg with an almost 2:1 a/to ratio. But Collison does not really project as a play-making point guard at the next level. While he is good at breaking down his defender, he is not great at drawing extra defenders and finding an open man.

What he does do well is control the game. Collison can get a team into their offense, he won't turn the ball over, and he can run a team. This is important, because Collison does not look to be a starter down the road, but rather a back-up.

Collison's biggest effect on the game comes on the defensive end. He is an extremely pesky defender that will be able to harass most NBA point guards. He also has excellent timing and anticipation, and showed a knack for getting into passing lanes and forcing turnovers.

Comparisons: Best Case: Chris Duhon, Mario Chalmers.

Bottom Line: Collison's a great possession point guard and a very good defender. While he is not great on the offensive end, he projects as an excellent candidate to have an extended career as a back-up in the league.

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NBA Draft Prospects: Tyler Hansbrough, UNC

Stats: 20.7 ppg, 8.1 rpg, 1.2 spg, 1.0 apg, 1.9 t/o's, 51.4% FG, 84.1% FT, 39.1% 3PT

Listed Size: 6'9", 230 lb, 11/3/1985 (23 years old)



About Him: If you read this site, then I'm certain you already know and have formed your own conclusions regarding Hansbrough and his potential as an NBA player. Personally, I think Hansbrough is going to have a decent career as a role-playing type.

Hansbrough is a fairly unique player. Some guys survive simply because they are incredible athletes; other guys are just that talented or fundamentally sound; still others can get by because they are exceptional at one thing. Hansbrough gets by on effort and work ethic. He is going to beat you down the floor, or out hustle you to get to an offensive rebound, or out work you to get position on the block.

That's not to say that Hansbrough isn't a skilled player - you don't put up the numbers he did just because you play hard. He has some decent post moves, but nothing too advanced. His go-to move in the paint is a half-jump-hook, half-turn-around that he can hit going over either shoulder. He probably won't be able to effectively score in isolations situations on the block in the league, however. He got a lot of his points simply because he was stronger than the guys he was going up against, using the strength to go through a defender and draw a foul. That won't be the case in the NBA.

On the defensive side of the ball, there are more question marks. Hansbrough does not have the length required to be a shut-down defender in the post, and one of the biggest knocks on him is his relative lack of athleticism. But Hansbrough tested out better than expected at the combine. More importantly, Hansbrough is the kind of guy that will work hard. When it comes down to it, the willingness to put in the effort defensively is just as, if not more, important than any other tool in projecting how good of a defender a prospect will be.

The one thing Hansbrough really improved upon this past season was the range on his jumper. While he didn't shoot many, he was a threat to knock down a three ball. Being able to knock down an 18 footer will be huge for him. He does not really project as an offensive threat in the pros (at least not on the same level as he was in college), so being able to hit that shot would force defenses to keep honest.

Comparisons: Best Case: Brandon Bass, Paul Millsap, Charles Oakley (stretch); Worst Case: Mark Madsen, Brian Cardinal.

Bottom Line: Hansbrough is a proven winner and a workaholic. He's not the kind of guy that is going to be a cancer in the locker room. While his star potential is not going to be too high, he could carve himself out a nice little career if he lands in the right place.

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NBA Draft Prospects: Derrick Brown, Xavier

Stats: 13.7 ppg, 6.1 rpg, 1.7 t/o's, 50.4% FG, 43.3% 3PT, 74.1% FT

Listed Size: 6'7", 225 lb, 9/7/1987 (21 years old)

About Him: Derrick Brown is an interesting prospect. While he is only a junior in terms of basketball, he has already received his degree (he redshirted his first season) and is all but guaranteed to stay in the Draft. As a prospect, he doesn't have a terribly high upside, especially offensively, where is game is still quite raw.

We will get to that in a second, but the area that Brown looks like he could be the most effective in the NBA is on the defensive end of the floor. Brown is as good of an athlete as there is in this draft. Standing over 6'7" barefoot, Brown has a wingspan of 7'2.5" and a standing reach of 8'11.5", giving him outstanding size and length for an NBA wing. He is strong, quick, and an excellent leaper, which combined with the excellent defensive system he played in at Xavier makes Brown look like he could be a real stopper down the road.

The problem is that athletes like this are all too common in the NBA. In order to lock up a first round selection, a player needs to have a solid all-around game offensively or be able to do one thing exceptionally well. Brown has neither. To his credit, he did show some improvements as a junior. For starters, he has developed his perimeter shot enough that you have to get out and defend it. He does not have the greatest form, and his release is pretty slow, but he shot 43% from three (making more than one per game) as a junior. With continued work, he could develop into a threat from the NBA three point line.

Off the dribble, Brown is a much worse shooter. He will knock down some tough ones every once in a while, but in general he doesn't not shoot well off the dribble.

He also does not get to the rim all that well. His first step is above-average, but he is too dependent on going left (he is a lefty) and at times is not aggressive enough attacking the basket. His handle is also lacking, and he can get out of control when he goes to the basket. For a guy with his length and athleticism you would think he would be dunking over people at a much higher rate than he actually did.

While Brown developed a pretty decent perimeter game for the college ranks, his biggest problem is that he still doesn't really have a feel for being a three; he is more like a four man with a face-up game. Think about it like this: he plays more like Chris Bosh than he does a guy like Hedo Turkoglu right now. At 6'7", he can get away with that at the college level. But he is going to need to become a much better perimeter player - improved handle, better jumper, better 1-on-1 player - if he plans on being any more than a reserve.

Comparisons: Best Case: I've seen shorter Robert Horry quite a bit, I like James Posey more; Worst Case: Bill Walker, Joe Alexander (too early to judge those two, but similar skill sets).

Bottom Line: Brown's athleticism alone could land him in the end of the first round, especially in a weak draft like this. One last point: there is something to be said for guys that are proven winners. Brown played in a program that was as successful as almost any in the country. He knows what it takes to win, and he knows how to fit in on a roster full of talent. Being a "team player" is a very important trait for the guys at the end of the first round and start of the second. You don't want to waste guaranteed money on a guy that's going to be a cancer if he isn't going to give you 20 and 10.

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NBA Draft Prospects: Wayne Ellington, UNC

Stats: 15.8 ppg, 4.9 rpg, 2.7 apg, 1.6 t/o's, 48.3% FG, 41.7% 3PT, 77.7% FT

Listed Size: 6'5", 190 lb, 10/29/1987 (21 years old)

(photo credit: WHYGWam)

About Him: If you go strictly based of statistics, Wayne Ellington looks like one of the best two-guard prospects in this draft. Despite having a higher usage rate than only Terrence Williams of Louisville, Ellington still managed to score 15.8 ppg, averaging an incredibly efficient 1.04 PPP. He was also one the best at his possession in catch-and-shoot situations and finishing at the rim, according to Synergy Sports.

The question that scouts will have to answer is how much of this is a result of Ellington's skill, and how much is a by-product of playing in the UNC system. Ellington is the perfect player to run the wing on a break alongside Ty Lawson - he is fast, he can jump, and he is a deadly three point shooter. Was he such an efficient scorer simply because Lawson got him wide open three's and easy lay-ups?

It may be a combination. Ellington is, in fact, a phenomenal shooter. With his feet set and shoulders squared, he is virtually automatic out to beyond the NBA three. He really understands how to use screens off the ball to get open as well, and has a quick trigger when he creates space. The knock on Ellington was that he could never really create his own shot, which was really brought to the forefront last year when he tested the draft waters.

This season, Ellington showed off a nice pull-up jumper that he could hit going either direction. He is a very good leaper, and is able to get the shot off against most defenders. The problem is that this is virtually the only shot Ellington can create for himself. He is far from a good penetrator (while is first step isn't very quick, he does take enormous strides for a guy his size), mainly due to the fact that he really struggles to finish with contact. Ellington is an excellent leaper, but he is not all that strong in the air, and knows it. Instead of trying to beat his man all the way to the rim, he had a tendency to take a pull-up jumper when he gained a step (see his 3.6 FT's-per-40).

Ellington is also not a great ball-handler, but he didn't need to be with a guy like Lawson on the team. He isn't a huge assists guy, but he still managed to sport a 1.6:1 a:t/o ratio. Part of the reason Ellington is such an efficient player is that he didn't take too many chances; and he didn't need to with the talent on UNC's roster this past season. Ellington had a tendency to get hot for spurts, scoring 10 straight points or 15 in a half, but then disappearing for long stretches. Again, this could very well be a by-product of playing with so much talent - rarely did he need to step up, and he performed very well when he did (Final Four MOP) - but it could also be a sign of his overall aggressiveness.

Defensively, Ellington is not very good. He doesn't move side-to-side well, he played in a college system that preached running the floor on offense instead on solid defense, and he is not all that strong of a player.

Comparisons: Best Case: Poor man's Ray Allen; Worst Case: Roger Mason, JJ Redick with hops.

Bottom Line: Ellington could carve himself out a nice little role in the league based on his shooting ability. But unless he develops an all-around game and decides he wants to be a defender, he probably will end up as not much more than a role player.

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NBA Draft Prospects: Austin Daye, Gonzaga

Stats: 12.7 ppg, 6.8 rpg, 2.1 bpg, 1.1 apg, 2.1 t/o's, 47.7% FG, 42.5% 3PT, 70.6% FT

Listed Size: 6'10", 190 lb, 6/5/1988 (21 years old)

(photo credit: Spokesman Review)

About Him: Offensively, Austin Daye is one of the most talented and versatile prospects in the draft. Standing a legitimate 6'10", Daye has the height (and wingspan) that can make him a threat in the post, but he also has the perimeter skills of a two guard.

It is precisely those perimeter skills that are making scouts salivate. Daye has a silky jumper, and while he does not get much elevation on his shot, his high release point makes it very difficult to defend. Already an excellent three-point shooter, Daye added much more consistency to his mid-range and pull-up jumpers this season. This is only helped by the fact that Daye has turned into a force in 1-on-1 situations. He is excellent when facing up a defender due to his array of jab steps and fakes. He has also improved his handle to the point enough that he is able to change directions when penetrating, often using what has turned into a pretty decent cross-over.

Daye has a tendency to pull-up and avoid getting all the way to the rim. The reason for this is also the biggest issue with Daye as a prospect. While Daye does have all the skills offensively to make him a match-up nightmare in the NBA, his body (and to a point his athleticism) is far from a finished product. Calling Daye slender would be a compliment - he weighed in at 192 lb at the NBA combine. Strength? Forget about it, he couldn't bench 185 lb once.

This is a big problem for Daye. To start, it completely eliminates his ability to play in the post. Defensively, he just can simply not guard people, even smaller defenders, because he cannot hold position. He is a good shotblocker, and seems to have a good grasp of positional defensive principles, but it is a matter of execution - he simply can't keep a stronger player from backing him down. It is more of the same offensively. Here is a guy that is 6'10" with great hands, excellent footwork, and a soft touch, but (according to Synergy Sports) he only scored on 12 of his 38 opportunities in a post up situation. He also, as I mentioned, struggled to finish when he put the ball on the floor, opting instead for a good amount of pull-up jumpers. As a result, he rarely got to the free throw line this year.

Before I rip him too much, Daye had two knee injuries during this last off-season, suffering a bone bruise and a partially torn acl. The acl injury left him out of action for about a month. During the season, Daye looked a step slower than he did as a freshman, and was forced to wear a bulky brace. His poor results in the athletics tests at the combine will more than likely make scouts question whether the injury had permanently hampered his athleticism.

The other big question mark with Daye is his attitude. Too often during the season, he would whine to officials about calls, sulk when he wasn't getting the ball, or let a poor shooting night affect the way that he was playing in other aspects of the game. It is never a good sign when a player lets the flow of the game affect the way he is playing as much as Daye does.

Comparisons: Best Case: Combination of Rashard Lewis and Tayshaun Prince; Worst Case: poor man's Austin Croshere.

Bottom Line: Daye could really use another season in college. He needs an off-season to put on mass and to get back to where he was as an athlete prior to his knee injury. Plus, with guys like Jeremy Pargo and Josh Heytvelt graduating, Daye should see much more than the 12.6 possessions he got per game as a sophomore. But based on his potential, there is a chance that Daye could sneak into the back end of the lottery, and will most likely be a first rounder. By coming back and having another average season, he could really hurt his draft stock.

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JOSH HEYTVELT INTERVIEW: Josh Heytvelt had a roller coaster career at Gonzaga. Coming out of Clarkston High School in Washington, he was not even a top 100 recruit (Rivals listed his as #120, behind the guys like Eastern Michigan's Darryl Garrett and Missouri State's Drew Richards).

But after successful seasons as a freshman and sophomore, Heytvelt's name started creeping up draft boards across the NBA. A 6'11" center that is athletic, can play on the perimeter and in the post, and can knock down a jumper from the NBA three point line does not come about every day.

But things started going down hill. In February of his sophmore year, Heytvelt and teammate Theo were arrested and charged with a Class C felony after thean ounce of shrooms were found in the car Heytvelt was driving. The following season, Heytvelt broke his foot and was sidelined for much of the year.

To his credit, Heytvelt was able to bounce back and have a very successful senior year, helping to lead the 'Zags to the NCAA Tournament's second weekend. Draft Express caught up with Heytvelt, and his time off has really seemed to humble him.

From the interview:

DX: During the interview sessions in Chicago, did any of the teams bring up some of the off the court issues that you’ve dealt with in the past?

JH: Yeah, I mean I talked about that stuff at every interview. I brought it up to most teams because I’m not trying to hide it, I talk about it and go through the whole process. I really put it out there that I’m a much different person now than I was back then.

I hope Heytvelt can catch on with an NBA team somewhere. I always liked his game at Gonzaga.

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NBA Draft Prospects: BJ Mullens, Ohio State

Stats: 8.8 ppg, 4.7 rpg, 1.1 bpg, 63.8% FG, 55.9% FT

Listed Size: 7'0", 260 lb, 2/14/1989 (20 years old)

(photo credit: Ohio State Men's Basketball)

About Him: BJ Mullens has all the tools to be an excellent center in the NBA. He is a legitimate 7-footer (well, 6'11.75" without shoes) with above average length. While he does not yet have NBA strength, he is still young and has a frame that can easily handle another 15-20 lbs without affecting his athleticism. And that athleticism is what makes him such a tantalizing prospect. He runs the floor very well, can get off the ground, and he has excellent hands. Physically, he has just about everything you can ask for in a big man.

The problem is, that is all he has at this point. Offensively, he is not much more than a catch-and-finish guy. He did not show much in the way of a back-to-the-basket game during his one season in Columbus. Mullens struggled to establish position on the block, even when going up against smaller players, and was inconsistent with his turn-around jumper and his jump hook. He didn't have terrible form, he just does not as of yet have the ability to be a scoring threat in the post.

Where Mullens is dangerous on the offensive end is when he is moving and cutting. As I mentioned, he is an athletic, mobile big man with great hands. He was able to score when he got out and ran the floor on the break, when teammates found him on the block, or when he cut to the rim, usually off of a pick-and-roll or alley-oop. There are two problems that factor in here. For starters, Mullens relies almost completely on his teammates setting him up for scoring opportunities right now. But the bigger issue is that most of Mullens points came on finishing at the rim. In college, he was bigger and more athletic than almost any opponent he faced, but that won't be true in the NBA. Mullens is going to have to add some strength and variety to his game if he wants to be an offensive threat.

He is going to need to be an offensive threat in the league, because he was not a great defender for the Buckeyes. According to reports, one of the reasons why Mullens played so few minutes at the start of the season was not because he couldn't contribute offensively, but because he didn't understand Thad Matta's defensive schemes. It makes sense if you watched Mullens play, as he seemed lost at times on defensive rotations. For someone with his size and athleticism, he was not a great shotblocker, getting just over two per 40 minutes.

The issue was not as much a problem of effort (he did work hard, especially when he ended up in 1-on-1 situations in the post) as it was of basketball IQ. Mullens did not get a lot of great coaching early on in his career, and he is still really learning how to play the game, on both ends of the floor. So while he still needs to develop things like his strength and his post moves, he also needs to improve on much more subtle aspects of the game, like understanding angles in the post or improving his reaction time on help side defense (which will be even more important with the NBA's defensive three-second rule). He also struggles as a passer, as he doesn't yet see the floor well. On the season, Mullens had 51 turnovers and just 9 assists.

Comparisons: Best Case: Andrew Bynum, Chris Kaman; Worst Case: Patrick O'Bryant, any other big man bust.

Bottom Line: Mullens showed some improvement throughout the season, scoring in double figures in 11 of the first 14 Big Ten conference games. While he does have his downfalls, he is only 20 years old and has a ton of potential. The team that takes him is going to need to understand that Mullens is a project, but if he puts in the work, Mullens could end up being a starting center in the league.

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NBA Draft Prospects: Eric Maynor, VCU

Stats: 22.4 ppg, 6.2 apg, 1.7 spg, 46.3% FG, 36.1% 3PT, 81.5% FT, 3.0 t/o's

Listed Size: 6'2", 175 lb, 6/11/1987 (22 years old)

(photo credit: CNN SI)

About Him: Unlike other point guards in this year's draft class, Eric Maynor doesn't have one particular skill or ability that puts him on the NBA radar. He doesn't have Steph Curry's jumper; or Jonny Flynn's athleticism; or Ty Lawson's speed. What separates Maynor from other point guards is that he is probably the best "true" point guard available this year.

Now, I am not a huge fan of using vague, cliche terms like "best true point guard", but it is the best way to describe Maynor. The kid is just a smart, fundamentally sound player that truly understands how to run a team. I'm going cliche again, but Maynor is an extension of the coach on the floor. And it isn't his scoring or playmaking ability I'm referring to (I'll get into that in a second), it is his leadership and decision making. Little things like breaking off a play the coach has called because he saw Larry Sanders get a good seal in the post or saw the help side defense turn their backs, meaning he could get to the rim. Or during the UCLA game, when he recognized quickly that the Bruins were collapsing on him and Sanders when he penetrated, and instead of forcing the issue, kicking the ball out to open perimeter shooters.

Offensively, Maynor understands and plays within his physical limitations, as he is not the best athlete at his position. But, as I mentioned before, Maynor plays with a very high IQ and is sound fundamentally. He is a great ballhandler, and can penetrate equally with either hand. He doesn't have an over-powering first-step, but he makes up for that with a great combination of hesitation moves and the ability to change speeds. He is not going to dunk on you when he gets to the basket, but his vast array of floaters, leaners, and pull-ups allows him to be an excellent finisher.

As a shooter, Maynor is still improving, as his poor jumper was the major reason he wasn't recruited by bigger schools in high school. He did shoot 36% from deep this year, while taking more than five per game, but his strength is in the mid-range game. He is excellent at hitting pull-ups, even with a hand in his face (see the Duke game winner as evidence).

Perhaps his most impressive stat offensively was his efficiency. For a guard that is not a great shooter that was relied on for offense as heavily as Maynor was, he put up impressive numbers. He averaged 21.2 possessions used per game (third among guard prospects), while posting a very respectable .99 PPP (points per possession). He also had a better than 2:1 a:to ratio.

Defensively is where the worry comes with Maynor. He is not a great athlete, gambled way too often for steals, and genuinely looked disinterested on this end of the court. For a guy without great defensive tools, will he be motivated enough to defend NBA point guards?

Comparisons: Best Case: Sam Cassell in his prime; Worst Case: Sam Cassell with the Celtics.

Bottom Line: Maynor is not a guy with a high ceiling. His jumper and defense can improve a bit, but essentially you know what you are getting with him. He is a guy that is a true point guard, can run a system, is a smart player that makes good decisions with the ball, and has already proven the ability to makes plays in the clutch. I see him having a solid career as a back-up and spot starter. I've seen some mock drafts that have Maynor sneaking into the back of the lottery, but he is still probably the fourth or fifth point guard on most draft boards.

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NBA Draft Prospects: Jonny Flynn, Syracuse

Stats: 17.4 ppg, 6.7 apg, 1.4 spg, 3.4 t/o's, 46% FG, 31.7% 3PT, 78.6% FT

Listed Size: 6'0", 172 lb, 2/6/1989, (20 years old)

(photo credit: Zimbio)

About Him: Jonny Flynn is an extremely talented basketball player, but before talking about anything he can do on the court, you have to talk about the intangibles Flynn brings to the table. When you are picking a point guard, maybe the most important trait you look for is if the kid is a winner and a leader. That is Flynn to a T. He is as tough of a competitor and plays with more heart than anyone at the point in recent memory. If the fact that he played damn near every minute as a freshman isn't enough, go back and watch highlights from the Big East Tournament. He carried Syracuse to a six OT win over UConn (when the Orange didn't lead until the sixth OT), then beat WVU in OT the next night.

Flynn's biggest strength as a player is his 1-on-1 ability. He has a combination of explosive athleticism and great handle that makes him so difficult to stay in front of. He is able to get to the rim just about anytime that he wants too. He is a decent finisher at the rim, but at times struggled to finish against bigger defenders inside, which could be an issue at the next level. He was great at getting to the foul line, however, drawing a foul on 16.1% of his possessions used.

As a jumpshooter, Flynn is tough to project simply because of the difficulty of the shots he took. He had good PPP numbers of his catch-and-shoot (1.24) and pull-up (.92) opportunities, but he was just a 31.7% shooter from deep (although, Synergy Sports said that less than a fifth of the threes he attempted were when he was left open and off of the catch, meaning more than 80% of he three-balls were shot off the dribble, with a hand in his face, or both). He has a good looking form and gets great elevation on his shot, so the odds are good that he can become a threat from the NBA three point line.


The biggest knock on Flynn offensively is that he is not a great decision maker. He would settle for tough shots early in the shot clock far too often, would look to get bailed out by the refs on drives to the rim, and had a tendency to try and make the pass that would get on Sportscenter's Top 10 as opposed to the smart, easy one. As a result, he made a lot of gorgeous plays, but also had a high turnover rate.

To be fair, Syracuse relied heavily on Flynn's ability to create, which probably factored a lot into how much he forced things on the offensive end.

Defensively, Flynn has the tools to be a pest. His size (5'11", but with a 6'4" wingspan) means that he will only be able to defend point guards, but he is a phenomenal athlete (40" vert was the highest in this year's class) which means that he could be a good defender at the next level. But he wasn't a great defender at Syracuse. While he did come up with some big plays, overall he looked a bit disinterested defensively at times. Some of that can be attributed to Syracuse playing a lot of zone, which Flynn was not a big fan of. If you have the athleticism, defense becomes all about effort. Will Flynn work hard enough to be a good defender at the next level?

Comparisons: Best Case: Bobby Jackson, more athletic Earl Watson; Worst Case: Omar Cook.

Bottom Line: Flynn has proven the ability to be a leader, to knock down clutch shots, and that he has the heart of a lion. Combine that with his 1-on-1 scoring ability, and Flynn is pretty high on a lot of draft boards, maybe even surpassing Brandon Jennings as the third PG (behind Rubio and Evans). Whether or not he is a starter or a spark plug off the bench (think Bobby Jackson with the Kings) will be determined by how much his all around game (jumper, defense, decision making) develops and the team he is playing for. At the very least, he projects as a high-quality reserve.

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NBA Draft Prospects: DeJuan Blair, Pitt

Stats: 15.7 ppg, 12.3 rpg, 5.8 orpg, 1.5 spg, 1.0 bpg, 59.3% FG, 60.5% FT, 1.3 t/o's

Listed Size: 6'7", 265 lb, 4/22/1989 (20 years old)

(photo credit: Zimbio)

About Him: There is a lot to like about DeJuan Blair as an NBA prospect, the most notable of which is his fantastic rebounding ability. He is an animal on the boards, collecting 12.3 rpg, with 5.8 of those coming on the offensive glass (which led the country).

There are a couple reasons why Blair is such a dominant rebounder. He has an ideal body for banging down low. He is a very strong 6'7" and 270 lbs (I've seen reports that he was up to as much as 315 during the season, but as shed almost 40 lbs in preparing for the draft), which gives him a low center of gravity and makes it difficult to move him off the block. But Blair has freakishly long arms (7'2" wingspan, standing reach of 8'11"), which allows him to play much taller than he is. Blair also has fantastic hands, catching everything that comes into his reach, which is all the more important given he rebounds as well out of his area as anyone I have ever seen.

Along those same lines, Blair excels at using his girth to seal off a defender in the post. He also is an excellent finisher on quick post moves, sealing his man for an easy duck-in lay-up of a quick jump hook. Where he tends to struggle is his ability to make more advanced post moves. As of now, he is not able to score as well when he has to beat a defender 1-on-1 in the post, whether it is via a back-to-the-basket post up or facing the basket.

More to the point, Blair is really ineffective with the ball anywhere beyond the block. He is not quick enough to take a defender off the dribble from 15 feet, and his jumper was virtually non-existent during the season (0.2 attempts per game). Based on his free throw shooting (down to 60.5% this year), it is safe to assume that he is going to need to improve that aspect of his game.

Since Blair survived on scoring around the basket, he became a very efficient player, shooting a robust 59.9% from the floor and posting a 38.9 PER, the highest in the country (although, much of that can be attributed to his offensive rebounding, which is scored very highly using that formula).

One other thing to mention about Blair is that with his girth, he may be the best screener in the entire draft - think about how difficult it will be for any to get around someone that size.

The biggest question mark right now for Blair is going to be on defense. Who is he going to be able to defend? For someone his size, he is impressively nimble and coordinated (as seen by his high number of steals, many of which came from him getting around an offensive player trying to hold a seal), but he is not a great athlete. He does not move well laterally and he isn't all that explosive. Can he guard power forwards that can step out and play on the perimeter? Can he hedge out and defend the pick and roll? Those are going to be the biggest concerns for him come draft day. To his credit, losing that weight can only help him get quicker.

Another big positive for Blair is going to be the intangibles he brings to the table. He doesn't have a ton of baggage. Off the court (and on the court as well), Blair is always smiling and always having a good time. He is not the kind of player that is going to come in and kill the chemistry of a team, in fact he probably will be a great locker room guy.

Comparisons: Best Case: Paul Millsap; Worst Case: Reggie Evans, Richard Hendrix.

Bottom Line: Blair is another guy that is going to fit into a role on a certain team. Given his frame and size, he should be able to rebound at the next level. When he is motivated to play, he is as active and as high energy as anyone going to the glass. But how good he will be in the league will depend solely on how well he develops the rest of his game. One thing to keep in mind - he tore both of his acl's in high school, and being just 20 years old, he is still relatively "young" as a player, so to speak.

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NBA Draft Prospects: Jeff Teague, Wake Forest

Stats: 18.8 ppg, 3.5 rpg, 1.9 spg, 48.5% FG, 44.1% 3PT, 81.7% FT, 3.4 t/os

Listed Size: 6'2", 180 lb, 6/10/1988 (21 years old)

(photo credit: Seattle Times)

About Him: Jeff Teague can flat out score. There is no doubt about that. Anyone that watched him play during the first half of the season, when people had him as a top 5 pick and potential national player of the year, will agree. When Teague is playing on the ball (meaning he is running the point), he was borderline unstoppable this past season. He can go either direction with the dribble, has a quick and long first step that can get him by defenders, and is equally adept and finishing at the rim and shooting a pull-up off the dribble. In fact, his pull-up might be the most dangerous weapon in his repertoire, as he shot 77% of his jumpers off the bounce while scoring .94 PPP (points per possession) in those situations (average was .81 for comparable NBA prospects - from Draft Express).

Where Teague runs into trouble is when he is forced to play off the ball (Ish Smith took over PG duties with 15 games left, which caused Teague's numbers to fall and Wake to go 8-7 - coincidence?). He is a 44% 3PT shooter, but is much less effective in a catch and shoot situation than he is off the dribble. Teague also struggles when he has to come off of screens. The reason for that is his jumper becomes much slower with a much lower release point off the catch, turning into basically a set/push shot. Off the dribble, he gets some elevation and shoots with a much more fluid motion. Watching him this season, it is clear that he needs the ball in his hands to be at his best.

The issue with Teague as an NBA prospect is that while he needs the ball in his hands to be his most effective, he is not a true point guard. He forces bad shots and tough passes, and he has a bad tendency of leaving his feet without knowing where is going with it. This probably means that Teague is destined to be more of a role player/spark plug off the bench than a full-time starter.

Adding to that sentiment is Teague defensively. He has all the tools to be a real pest on that end of the floor - great athleticism, excellent length (6'7" wingspan) - but he just didn't seem interested in playing much defense. He did come up with steals in the passing lanes, but he isn't a great help side defender and really struggled at times keeping his man in front of him. If he does want to be a starter in the league, his effort on the defensive end must improve.

Comparisons: Best Case: Monta Ellis pre-injury, Kevin Johnson; Worst Case: Aaron Brooks, more athletic Flip Murray.

Bottom Line: Teague has the ability to be a real weapon at the next level because he can really fill it up. But he does not yet have the all-around game that you would look for in a full-time starter. It will probably worry some teams that Teague, given his small stature, is probably never going to be a pure point guard. That said, Aaron Brooks this year and Monta Ellis two years ago both proved their value in the playoffs, so expect Teague to go somewhere in the late lottery.

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NBA Draft Prospects: James Johnson, Wake Forest

Stats: 15.0 ppg, 8.5 rpg, 1.5 spg, 1.4 bpg, 54.2% FG, 31.9% 3PT, 69.7% FT, 2.4 t/o's

Listed Size: 6'8", 235 lb, 2/20/1987 (22 years old)

(photo credit: SI)

About Him: James Johnson is one of the more well-rounded prospects in this year's draft class, especially on the offensive end. The problem is, he has all the makings of your classic tweener - he is not really a power forward, but he may not be quick enough to defend on the perimeter.

On the surface, it looks like Johnson did not improve much between his freshman and sophomore campaigns as his numbers did not change all that much. But consider this - Johnson went from being the #1 option on a mediocre team to the #2 (and at times #3) option on one of the best offensive teams in the country, all while maintaining his scoring numbers and improving his shooting percentage from 48.7% to 54%.

On the offensive end, Johnson's game is almost entirely based on versatility and finding a mismatch. He is a capable scorer on the block, possessing excellent footwork and a nice variety of post moves. His size allows him to muscle smaller defenders, and he is virtually ambidextrous finishing around the rim. But if you put a bigger defender on him, Johnson is just as comfortable playing on the perimeter. His biggest strength on the perimeter is getting to the rim. While not blessed with blazing speed or a huge vertical, Johnson takes long strides which allows him to beat slower defenders, and thanks to a background in martial arts, Johnson has exceptional balance and coordination for a guy his size.

While Johnson does seem.to have a great feel for the game offensively (he understands how to put the ball in the basket), his skill set is not quite there yet. He shot just 31.9% from distance this season, and while he was a bit more consistent with his pull-up, in general he must improve his jumpshot. His handle also needs some work. He does have the ability to go coast-to-coast, but he struggles when he is forced to change directions, especially while attacking the basket.

The biggest red flag for Johnson has less to do with his physical ability. At times, Johnson seems to lose focus, especially on the defensive end. With his athleticism, coordination, and toughness (fighting background), you would think that he would be an excellent defender. But he isn't, and in fact struggled at times, especially when playing off the ball. That same issue manifests itself on the offensive end as Johnson is a poor decision maker, taking too many bad shots and committing a high number of turnovers.

Comparisons: Best Case: Ryan Gomes; poor man's Corliss Williamson.

Bottom Line: How long Johnson hangs around the league is entirely dependent on him - will he maintain concentration defensively? Will he put in the effort off the court to get better as a shooter? He is probably going in the first round, which means guaranteed money. If he can keep improving, he has a skill set that could enable him to have a nice little career.

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His face after this dunk is one of my favorite moments of the entire season.



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NBA Draft Prospects: Sam Young, Pitt

Stats: 19.2 ppg, 6.3 rpg, 2.4 t/o's, 50.2% FG, 37.2% 3PT, 74% FT

Listed Size: 6'6", 210 lb, 6/1/1985 (24 years old)

(photo credit: Strotty's Blog)

About Him: When talking about Sam Young, undoubtedly the first thing that will come up is his athleticism - the guy is a freak. He is a long 6'6" that is strong as an ox and can jump out of the gym. He has quick feet and moves very well laterally. But there are two unique aspects to Young's profile that make him stand out - he played both the post and the wing in the Big East; and he is always hustling and playing hard (and as anyone will tell you, the most important trait for being a good defender is effort). Put all of that together, and you get a guy that projects very well as a defender on the next level.

Offensively, Young has a much lower ceiling. Surprisingly, his best offensive skill right now is his ability to catch-and-shoot (which is an unbelievable improvement from his freshman campaign). While is form is far from pretty, it is consistent, which is what made him Pitt's best perimeter shooter this past season. His release is fairly quick (he even added the ability to come off of screens and make shots) and he has range out to the college three point line. If he continues to work at it, becoming an NBA three point threat is likely.

Where Young struggles is when he is forced to put the ball on the floor. His handle is pretty weak, and while he was able to get to the rim in the Big East, a lot of that was due to his crazy, but effective, pump fake and his quick first step. He cannot change directions well, and is especially ineffective in situations where he has to create with the bounce (i.e. the pick and roll or leading the break).

Young's strength and athleticism allows him to be an excellent finisher in the paint. For starters, after playing the post for so long, he has an effective back to the basket game. He is also a fantastic finisher at the rim, especially when he gets out on the wing in transition.

Comparisons: Best Case: James Posey, Trenton Hassell with the T'Wolves; Worst Case: James Jones, Tony Allen.

Bottom Line: Young will probably never be a star in the league, but his defensive ability alone should keep him around the league. His work ethic and his ability to hit an open jumper should make him a very effective role player. He might be able to sneak in the end of the first round.

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NBA Draft Prospects: Tyreke Evans, Memphis

Stats: 17.1 ppg, 5.4 rpg, 3.9 apg, 2.1 spg, 3.6 t/o's, 45.5% FG, 27.4% 3PT, 71.1% FT

Listed Size: 6'5", 195 lb, 9/19/1989 (19 years old)

(photo credit: SI.com)

About Him: Tyreke Evans had a bit of an up-and-down season. He struggled early on in the year, as he appeared to be a bit uncomfortable with his role on the team and the amount that the Tigers relied upon him creating shots. But midway through the season, Calipari slid Evans over to the point (where he played during prep and AAU ball). Evans was much better at the point, and the Tigers subsequently went on a long win streak.

Evans proved himself an effective scorer in his one year at Memphis, but it was not a result of his shooting ability. Not to be harsh, but Evans is a flat out bad shooter from the perimeter. He averaged just .86 PPP (points per possession) in catch-and-shoot situations and .69 PPP in jumpers off the bounce. His form is pretty terrible, and will need to be overhauled once he gets drafted if he wants to ever be an effective long-range shooter. Right now, he shoots from almost behind his head, while having a natural fade (not in a good way) on just about every jumper he takes.

Evans is a pretty creative player getting to the basket. While he struggles a bit in half-court, 1-on-1 situations (just .54 PPP in those scenarios), he is very effective in the open court. Not an overwhelming athlete, Evans instead gets by because he has a crafty handle, full of hesitations and fakes that he is very adept at using to keep defenders off-balance. He also has an insane wingspan for someone his size (over 7 feet), which allows him to finish effectively at the rim despite not being the most explosive leaper.

Evans also proved to be a pretty good creator for his teammates as well, averaging almost four assists per. While he had a tendency to force the issue (not only passing the ball, but off the bounce as well), leading to higher turnover numbers than scouts like, much of Evans inefficiency offensively can be attributed to him being thrust into a tough role with the Tigers - he was the only guy on that team that could create his own shot.

The place where Evans can be a game changer in the NBA is on defense. His length and anticipation make him a terror in the passing lanes, and he is a good enough athlete that he should be able to guard both points and twos in the league.

Comparisons: Best Case: Larry Hughes on a good day; Worst Case: washed up Larry Hughes.

Bottom Line: The biggest question mark regarding Evans right now is the role he will play in the league. He does have some point guard skills, but he was inefficient at Memphis and really dominated the ball offensively. And while he can put points on the board in a hurry (especially if he plays in an uptempo system), his jump shot is not good enough for an NBA two-guard. Evans clearly has a nice feel for the game and how to score - he is very poor fundamentally - and some nice tools to work with. If he puts in the work and ends up in the right system, he could be a solid starter/scorer down the road.

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NBA Draft Prospects: Jrue Holiday, UCLA

Stats: 8.5 ppg, 3.8 rpg, 3.7 apg, 1.6 spg, 2.1 t/o's, 45.0% FG, 30.7% 3PT, 72.6% FT

Listed Size: 6'3", 185 lb, 6/12/90 (18 years old)

(photo credit: LA Times)

About Him: Holiday is a tough prospect to predict. For starters, he played for UCLA, which means that his production is going to be stifled under Ben Howland's slowed down system. But that is less of an issue, however, considering the success that Russell Westbrook had this season.

The bigger issue is the position that Holiday is going to play in the NBA. His size, or relative lack thereof, would probably mean he will be more of a point guard at the next level. But playing alongside Darren Collison, who was one of the best point guards in the country, meant that Holiday did not get much of an opportunity to show off what he could do when running a team. The one real chance we got to see him run the point late in the season was in the Bruins first round match-up with VCU in the NCAA Tournament. Collison was being face-guarded throughout, which meant that a lot of the playmaking opportunities fell to Holiday, who didn't disappoint with a 13 point, 6 assist, and 2 turnover performance in 38 minutes.

The one thing we do know about Holiday is that he is a fantastic defender, which could have only been helped by playing in Ben Howland's system. He moves his feet very well, picked up quite a few steals (his 1.6 spg is all the more impressive considering the slow pace - meaning fewer possessions - UCLA games were played at), and has an excellent understanding of defensive positioning.

Offensively, there are more question marks regarding Holiday's ability. The biggest of those question marks is his perimeter jumper. He shot just 30.7% from beyond the arc, despite taking 2.5 per game, and was not consistent in the mid-range either. Overall, he was not a very consistent scorer, but much of that can, again, be attributed to the balanced UCLA offense he played in (his usage rate was a meager 9.7 possessions per game).

Holiday has shown some solid point guard skills. He can handle the ball pretty well, and he is a good decision maker and play maker. Despite playing off the ball, Holiday averaged a very respectable 3.7 apg with an a:to ratio of 1.75:1; again, very respectable. He has shown an ability to get by his defender and into the lane, but he did have some problems finishing at the rim. While Holiday is an all-around good athlete, he does not possess that Derrick Rose/Westbrook-freakish explosiveness.

Comparisons: The three I've seen the most: Delonte West, Rodney Stuckey, Mario Chalmers. West might be the best given their comparable frames, but I don't love any of the comparisons.

Bottom Line: Any team using their pick on Holiday will be taking a bit of a risk - if he looked like an overmatched freshman at times in the Pac-10, what will happen in the league? What an NBA team will be getting is an intelligent player that is willing to defend, can fit into a system that already has star power, and may one day turn out to be a starter in the league. As far as where he is picked, who knows? Doug Gottlieb at him going third when he did his piece on Sportscenter after the draft lottery was announced, but other publications have put him closer to 20. The back end of the lottery is probably where he ends up.

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NBA Draft Prospects: Chase Budinger, Arizona

Stats:18.0 ppg, 6.2 rpg, 3.4 apg, 1.4 spg, 48% FG, 39.9% 3PT, 80.1% FT, 2.4 t/o's

Listed Size: 6'7", 218 lb, 12/31/87 (21 years old)

(photo credit: daylife.com)

About Him: Despite having three excellent seasons in Tucson (under three different coaches, I might add), Chase Budinger still never quite lived up to the hype he had coming out of high school (he was a top 10 recruit in a class that has already produced 16 first rounders). But he also never really had too. As a freshman, he had to fit into a system that already had Mustafa Shakur, Marcus Williams, and Ivan Radenovic; as a sophomore, Jerryd Bayless was Arizona's star and go-to player; and this past season, Jordan Hill emerged as a lottery pick while Nic Wise turned into arguably the best PG during Pac-10 play.

This actually was a good thing for Budinger. The knock on him his entire career has been that he lacks the mentality of a go-to scorer. While this did make things tough at times for Arizona (especially when Wise or Hill were in foul trouble), this is a good thing for Budinger as an NBA prospect. Budinger does not project as a superstar at the next level, but rather as a rotation/role player. There's no arguing that he is a talented offensive player, and his team-first (as opposed to me-first) mindset should help him fit in nicely.

Offensively, Budinger is a very well-rounded player. Most people know Budinger for his three-point stroke or for his exceptional leaping ability, but there is much more to this kid on the offensive end. Case-in-point: with as smooth of a stroke as Budinger has (with the range Budinger has), only about a third of his field goal attempts were from beyond the arc. There isn't much he can't do on the offensive end.

His problem, however, is that his catch-and-shoot stroke is the only part of his arsenal that can be considered above-average for an NBA wing prospect (and even that is close - he shot under 40% from three). His handle, especially changing directions, needs work; he elevates well on his pull-ups, but is inconsistent knocking down those shots; his first step isn't overwhelming; he can get to the rim, but can have issues finishing through contact (he lacks some upper body strength).

Perhaps his most NBA ready attribute is his basketball IQ. For starters, he is an excellent passer, averaging 3.4 apg with an a:to ratio of about 1.4:1. He also moves without the ball really well. He knows how to use a screener to get open, and you always need to be wary of the back door lobs, as he can finish well above the rim.

Budinger's athleticism is quite impressive, especially in an open court situation (he runs the floor very well). But despite his athleticism and excellent size, he does not project well as a defender. He is not terribly quick (especially laterally), played almost exclusively zone in college, and is not exactly a weight room warrior. This could be a factor in where Budinger ends up going in the draft - no one wants a defensive liability, especially at a position where big time scorers are a dime a dozen.

Comparisons: Best Case: Jason Richardson, Rudy Fernandez; Worst Case: Brent Barry.

Bottom Line: Budinger will likely never be a star in the NBA. While he does have the tools, he doesn't necessarily have the make-up of a big time scorer. But with his smarts, his all-around offensive game, and his athleticism, he should be an effective role player for a while. Where he goes in the draft will be all about the right fit - someone who needs some offense off the bench, but doesn't need the headache of a primadonna. I've seen him projected everywhere from 10-24.

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NBA Draft Prospects: Terrence Williams, Louisville

Stats: 12.5 ppg, 8.6 rpg, 5.0 apg, 2.3 spg, 0.8 bpg, 2.3 t/o's, 43.1% FG, 38.5% 3PT, 58.1% FT

Listed Size: 6'6", 220 lb, 6/28/1987 (21 years old)

(photo credit: StilletoSetSports)

About Him: T-Will is one of the most interesting prospects in this year's draft class because of what he brings to the table as a player. Actually, T-Will is so intriguing because of what he doesn't bring to the table. Simply put, Williams is not a good offensive player, especially when it comes to scoring the ball. I'm not always a huge fan of advanced statistics, but these are pretty startling numbers.

For starters, T-Will's usage rate was extremely low for an NBA prospect - just 14.1 possessions per game (by comparison, Jodie Meeks had a usage rate of 21 possessions per game). He wasn't terribly efficient either, scoring just .87 PPP (points per possession) overall. While Williams proved to be a much improved shooter as the season progressed (he finished the year hitting 38% from deep), he still scored just 1.12 PPP on catch and shoot jumpers and an astonishingly low .58 PPP on pull-ups. He wasn't all that impressive getting to the basket either, scoring just 1.11 PPP at the rim (exactly average for NBA two-guard prospects), scoring just .61 PPP in 1-on-1 isolations, and getting fouled on only 9% of his possessions used. Perhaps the number that stands out the most is his 15.4% shooting when he went to his left (credit for all these stats goes too Synergy Sports).

What does all that tell us? Well, nothing we don't already know. When Williams is selected on June 25th, it is not going to be because he is an excellent scorer. He's not. But he is an incredibly versatile player and a phenomenal athlete (watch his highlights below - the guy is guaranteed to be in a dunk contest one day). Because of his athleticism, his skill that projects the most favorably to the NBA is his defense. He is big and strong with long arms and great explosiveness. He really has a knack for getting into passing lanes and disrupting an offense. We don't know as much about his man-to-man ability (Louisville played a lot of zone), but he should not have a problem at the next level.

The other skill that most scouts will notice is his playmaking ability. T-Will averaged 5.0 apg with an a/to ratio of better than 2:1. He has a great court sense and excellent vision, which meant that he made a lot of gorgeous no-look passes during his time at Louisville. But that did cause some problems, as he seemed to be penetrating to pass way too often. With his size and athleticism, he should have been much more adept at getting to the rim and finishing than he actually was. One of the reasons that Williams didn't attack the basket as much as scouts would have liked is that his handle is not all that great, especially with his left hand. He does not have a lot of advanced moves in his repertiore, and instead relied on his blinding first step to get him by his defender.

The other thing Williams does very will is rebound, snagging 8.6 rpg this past season. He reads the flight of the ball very well, especially on the defensive glass, and his athleticism allows him to get to caroms well out of his area.

Comparisons: Best Case: Andre Iguodala; Worst Case: Tony Allen.

Bottom Line: Unless his offensive game really comes around, T-Will will likely never be a star at this level. But with how much he brings to the table - his versatility as a player and defender (he can guard three spots at the NBA level) - he should be able to hang around the league as a solid role player, maybe even playing some point forward. He looks like a mid-to-late first rounder at this point.

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