2011 NCAA Tournament: Sweet 16 East Region Preview

The East region is the toughest region in the bracket. And it is not just because Ohio State is the best team in the country. Kentucky is dangerous as a No. 4 seed. They have two game changers in Brandon Knight and Terrence Jones. A third freshman, Doron Lamb, is capable of scoring 20 points on a given night and role players Deandre Liggins, Josh Harrellson, and Darius Miller are playing some of their best basketball of the season. And then there is North Carolina, a team that has come together at just the right time. Kendall Marshall may never make the NBA, but he is one of the most entertaining guards in the country to watch with his ability to pass the basketball.

Expect plenty of NBA scouts to be in attendance at Anaheim. As much as a quarter of the 2011 NBA Draft's first round will take the court this weekend.

Best Storylines:

• Ohio State is the best team in the country. They aren't the most talented -- and they probably aren't the most talented team in this region -- but they have players that understand and buy into their roles. They will have two tough matchups, regardless of opponent. Can they make it through?


• John Calipari is making a living on one-and-done players. And this team is no different, with two -- possibly three -- freshmen headed to this year's draft. Will he be able to break through?


• The Tar Heels have experienced a resurgence this season after underperforming for a season and a half. Can they complete that comeback with a trip to the Final Four?


• You have to love this Marquette team. A coach that came up on the JuCo circuit leading a group of over achieving, under recruited prospects and JuCo transfers. Marquette may be from the Big East, but this team is as cinderella as they come.
  

What they need to do to win:

• No. 1 Ohio State: The Buckeyes don't need to do anything other than play Buckeye basketball, because when they do, they are the best team in the country. What is Buckeye basketball? Offensively, it entails getting the ball into Jared Sullinger in the post and allowing him to make decisions, be it scoring on a post move or kicking the ball out of an open shooter. Defensively, they are tough and physical and they don't foul. When they are rebounding the ball and hitting their threes, this team is near impossible to beat.


• No. 2 North Carolina: Where the Tar Heels have an advantage is in the front court. Tyler Zeller and John Henson are not going to out physical anyone, but they can out run them. It would be interesting to see how many of Kendall Marshall's assists come as a result of those two beating their man down the floor. When UNC is scoring in transition and Harrison Barnes and company are hitting jump shots is when this team is at their best.


• No. 4 Kentucky: The Wildcats are going to need to get production out of their three freshmen. Terrence Jones and Doron Lamb. The two have combined for a grand total of 37 points in the two tournament games. Brandon Knight hit the game-winner against Princeton, but those were his only points of the game. The other key will be Josh Harrellson. Can he hold his own against teams with quality front courts?


• No. 11 Marquette: Get lucky? This team is going to be overmatched against every team they play from here on out. But this is a scrappy, blue-collar team that has been an underdog all season long. If the Golden Eagles are going to win, they need to take advantage of the mismatches that Jae Crowder and Jimmy Butler create.
  

Players to watch:

• David Lighty, Ohio State: Jared Sullinger is the Buckeye's star, but Lighty is the do-everything guy for the Buckeyes. He can defend four different positions. He can be a facilitator when the time calls. As he proved against George Mason, Lighty can be a scorer and a sharpshooter when he has to.
  


• Harrison Barnes, North Carolina: We all know how good the Tar Heels can be in transition. When they are forced into a half court battle, however, it is a different story. The Heels don't have a lot of players that can consistently create their own shot, which make Barnes so important. For the last two months, he has been playing like the all-american everyone expected him to be this season.
  


• Terrence Jones, Kentucky: Jones is the most talented player on the Kentucky's roster. He's also the most difficult to matchup with. At 6'9", Jones can score in the post and on the perimeter. He has three point range and the handle to put the ball on the floor and get to the rim. How many fours and fives in the East can matchup with that kind of versatility.


• Darius Johnson-Odom, Marquette: DJO is a big-time shooter and an explosive athlete that can score in bunches. As good as guys like Jimmy Butler and Jae Crowder are, DJO is Marquette's best offensive weapon.
  

Friday Games:

7:15 pm, Newark, CBS: No. 1 Ohio State vs. No. 4 Kentucky

Key Matchup: Terrence Jones and Jared Sullinger

Both Jones and Sullinger create massive matchup problems for their opponent. As mentioned earlier, Jones is a power forward with size and versatility that Ohio State can't exactly matchup with. David Lighty is probably Ohio State's best defender, but will he be big enough to defend Jones in the post? Dallas Lauderdale and Sullinger are not quick enough to stay with Jones on the perimeter. Will Thad Matta risk putting DeShaun Thomas on him?

Along those same lines, Sullinger causes a matchup problem for Kentucky. Josh Harrellson is the only player with the size and the toughness to matchup with him, but anyone in their right mind would believe that Sullinger will eat Harrellson for lunch. Kentucky's senior center has been terrific in the tournament, playing a role for UK similar to that played by Brian Zoubek for Duke last season.

Key Stat: Kentucky's three point shooting

Ohio State's strength on the defensive end of the floor is their ability to play aggressive defensively and force turnovers without fouling their opponent and putting them on the free throw line. The Buckeyes are 26th in the country in turnover percentage while allowing their opponents the fewest number of free throws per possession of any team in the nation. But where Ohio State struggles is when it comes to forcing their opponents into contested shots. They are 124th nationally in effective field goal percentage defense and 150th in three point percentage defense. Kentucky isn't a great shooting team and they don't shoot all that many threes, but they are 11th in the country in three point percentage. If they are going down for Wildcats, that could be the equalizer.

BIAH Prediction: Ohio State

I picked Kentucky in my bracket, but I am regretting that choice after seeing what Ohio State did to George Mason. The Buckeyes, right now, are playing as well as any team in the country. I'm just not convinced that Kentucky is going to be tough enough defensively, especially when dealing with Jared Sullinger, to beat the Buckeyes.


9:45 pm, Newark, CBS: No. 2 North Carolina vs. No. 11 Marquette

Key Matchup: Jimmy Butler vs. John Henson

Jimmy Butler is a tough matchup for every team. He's filled the role of Lazar Hayward as the versatile power forward that can defend and rebound in the paint, creating a mismatch on the offensive end with his ability to score and create from the perimeter. Henson will have trouble staying in front of Butler defensively, but with Henson's length and athleticism, it will be interesting to see if Butler can keep Henson off the offensive glass.

Key Stat: North Carolina's offensive rebounding

The Tar Heels aren't a great offensive rebounding team, but Marquette is thoroughly average on the defensive glass. UNC has every advantage you could want up front. They are bigger, they are longer, and they are more athletic. John Henson is a very good offensive rebounder while Tyler Zeller is above average. Keeping those two from getting easy putbacks will be a key focus for the Golden Eagles.

BIAH Prediction: North Carolina Tar Heels

As much as a I hate to see him go, Buzz Williams' team simply does not have the talent level to compete with UNC.


So who advances?: I'm going to say that North Carolina does. I can't see Marquette beating them in the Sweet 16, and should Carolina advance, they matchup well with either Kentucky or Ohio State. The Tar Heels have already beaten Kentucky -- back in December -- and they did it when they still had Larry Drew running the show. With Ohio State, for every bucket that the Buckeyes get inside thanks to the strength advantage that Sullinger has, UNC will get one when their bigs are able to beat him down the floor.
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2011 NCAA Tournament Bracket Breakdown: Southeast Region

Pitt is in exactly the same position that Duke was a season ago. They are not the No. 1 overall seed in the NCAA Tournament, but they may very well have the easiest road to the Final Four.

Florida is overrated as a two seed, I think most of the pundits have agreed on that. BYU, the three seed, is missing Brandon Davies. St. John's will be playing without DJ Kennedy, who tore his acl in the Big East Tournament. Pitt's two toughest games could very well end up being in the third round against the Old Dominion-Butler winner (ODU is better) and in the Sweet 16 against whoever is able to make it out of the pod of death.

Some may cry foul, but not me. Jamie Dixon deserves a Final Four.


Final Four Favorite: Pitt Panthers

Like I said earlier, the Panthers may have the easiest path to the Final Four, as a number of the teams in their bracket have injuries or are overseeded. Regardless of catching a break in terms of matchups, this Pitt team would be a Final Four favorite regardless. They execute to perfection offensively, they attack the glass as hard as any team in the country, and they make it very difficult to get a good shot off defensively. As an added bonus, it looks like Talib Zanna could be back for the Sweet 16.


And if they lose?: Florida Gators

I'm torn on the Gators. On the one hand, this is a team that, on paper, looks like a title threat. They have a matchup nightmare at the small forward in Chandler Parsons, who, at 6'10", can shoot the three, can drive to the rim, can find assists, and rebounds very well. In the back court, Erving Walker was better this season in terms of shot selection and protecting the ball while Kenny Boynton has found his jump shot the last month. Vernon Macklin has become a solid post scoring threat while Alex Tyus and Patric Young are both athletic and aggressive. That said, do you trust this team? They won the SEC East by three games but got waxed in the tournament final and lost to Jacksonville and Central Florida.


Sweet 16 Sleeper (10 or lower): Any of them?

Remember how I saw this bracket was wide open? Any of the teams sitting in the 10-14 range I can see winning two games in the tournament.

• Michigan State is the 10 seed, and do you want to bet against Tom Izzo in March? Yeah, me neither.
• Gonzaga is the 11 seed. The Zags have hit their stride since David Stockton has taken over the point guard duties. They will be playing St. John's, who is without DJ Kennedy, in their first and will get Brandon Davies-less BYU or Wofford in the next round.
• Do I think 14th seed Wofford will beat BYU? No, they don't play enough defense (192nd in efficiency). Can they do it? Absolutely. They were a possession away from knocking of Wisconsin last season and essentially returned the same team.
• 12 seed Utah State (playing Kansas State) and 13 seed Belmont (playing Wisconsin) are in the pod of death. Every single one of those four teams is good enough to be in the Sweet 16. If I had to bet, I would bet against Utah State -- they are 0-9 in the NCAA Tournament under Stew Morrill and have yet to beat anyone this season. I like Belmont, however. They press, they are balanced, they are deep, and they play the opposite style that the Badgers do.
  

Final Four Sleeper (5 or lower): Kansas State Wildcats

I was tempted to take Old Dominion here, but I am going to go with the Wildcats of Kansas State. I know they just lost to Colorado (they lost to the Buffs three times, that was a fluky matchup, apparently), but the Wildcats closed the season as hot as anyone in the country. Jacob Pullen is playing great basketball, Frank Martin's front line is defending and rebounding, and K-State as a team has begun to work harder and become more blue collar. Don't discount the bitter taste in the Wildcat's mouths after last year's exit at the hands of Butler.


Player to Watch (8 and up): Dwight Hardy, St. John's

Jimmer Fredette and Jordan Taylor were too easy and too obvious. Hardy, on the other hand, is a guy you rarely heard about outside the Big East. His nickname is the "Baddest Man on the Planet". He's got deep range on his three, but Hardy is at his best when he is slashing to the rim. His floater, which damn near brings rain, is a thing of beauty.


Player to Watch (9 and lower): Kent Bazemore and Frank Hassell, Old Dominion

The Monarchs are a very similar team to Pitt in that they pride themselves on being a gritty, physical team. ODU is actually the only team in the country that is better at getting to the offensive glass than Pitt is. The Monarchs don't execute as well offensively as Pitt does, but they have similar principles defensively. With the exception of Bazemore, who like to jump passing lanes, the Monarchs generally pack in their defense and dare you to try and get an open look.

Bazemore is a 6'5" athlete that has three point range, can put the ball on the floor and finish above the rim, and also is a good passer and one of the best defenders in the country. Hassell is a 6'9" bruiser that gets a lot of boards, blocks some shots, and can score around the rim.


Best Matchup -- 1st Round: No. 4 Wisconsin vs. N0. 13 Belmont

As much fun as some of the first round matchups in the Southeast are, Wisconsin and Belmont hold all kinds of intrigue for me. Wisconsin is the slowest team in the country. Belmont loves to press and push the pace. Wisconsin never turns the ball over, leading the country in turnover percentage. Belmont is second in the nation in defensive turnover percentage. Wisconsin is top 15 in the country in defensive rebounding percentage while Belmont is top 15 in offensive rebounding percentage. Talk about a contrast of styles. That said, slowing the game down is always easier than speeding the game up.


Best Potential Matchup: No. 1 Pitt vs. No. 9 Old Dominion

Florida will be involved in a national title rematch regardless of who wins the UCLA-Michigan State first round game. The winners in the pod of death will almost certainly be a must watch game. BYU-Gonzaga could be a preview of the WCC title game next season. But personally, I am hoping to see Pitt and Old Dominion play. Both teams are physical. Both teams attack the glass. Both teams plays the game as hard as anyone. They made need to bring facemasks and shoulder pads.


Upset Alert!!!: Anyone?

I touched on this earlier, but this is going to be the region that either destroys your bracket or wins your pool. With the exception of Pitt, Florida, and possibly BYU, anyone can be beaten in the second round. I could see a scenario where two different double digits seeds make it to the Sweet 16. Refer to the Sweet 16 sleeper section above.
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2011 NCAA Tournament Bracket Breakdown: West Region

Duke's road to the Final Four is tougher that it initially looks on paper.

In the Sweet 16, barring an upset, they will be playing either Arizona (in Anaheim) or Texas. In the Elite 8, they could be forced to face a UConn team with a sizzling Kemba Walker or a San Diego State team more or less playing a home game.

This may also be the bracket to pick some first round upsets. Missouri matches up well with Cincinnati. Memphis head coach Josh Pastner will be playing the school he used to work for in Arizona. Oakland is legit and will square off with Texas, who is still coached by Rick Barnes.


Final Four Favorite: Duke Blue Devils

They may have a tough path, but I still have to go with the Dukies. They have two all-americans in Nolan Smith and Kyle Singler that have proven the ability to perform in the clutch. Seth Curry is starting to show everyone that he does, in fact, share some DNA with Steph Curry. After fading a bit down the stretch, the Blue Devils reasserted their dominance with an impressive win over UNC in the ACC Tournament title game. My biggest concern for the Blue Devils is that the four other top five seed all have a horse inside, and Duke has been notoriously bad against powerful big men. One thing we are all forgetting -- there is still a chance that Kyrie Irving is back at some point during the tournament.

(UPDATE: So it appears as if Kyrie Irving will be available for Duke, possibly as early as Friday's first round game. What does it mean? Well, it could me everything for Duke. It wasn't that long ago that Duke was the best team in the country, being discussed as a team with the potential to go undefeated. Putting that kind of talent into the lineup certainly could push them back to that level come the Sweet 16. Nolan Smith has proven what he can do when he is running the show. Am I the only one that thinks he is definitely unselfish enough to move off the ball if it is better for the team?

It could be a disaster. The Blue Devils have a pretty good thing going right now, with Nolan Smith playing like the national player of the year and Seth Curry finally getting into a rhythm. If Irving comes back and takes minutes away from Curry and shots away from Smith, it could kill their chemistry.

It could also mean nothing for Duke. Irving hasn't played in three months. He will be rusty. He may be out of shape. He may not even be 100% healthy.

Me? I expect Irving, if he does play, to start out as a change of pace, playing 15-20 mpg before earning his starting spot back.)


And if they lose?: UConn Huskies

I think the Huskies put to rest any doubt over whether they are good enough to win games in March. Now, the question is will they get enough rest. UConn finished off an impressive run through the Big East Tournament, winning five games in five days to rocket themselves up to a three seed. As good as Kemba Walker was in the Big East Tournament, the key for UConn is going to be the play of Alex Oriakhi and Jeremy Lamb. If Oriakhi is rebounding the ball and Jeremy Lamb is aggressive offensively, the Huskies are a much, much better team.


Sweet 16 Sleeper (10 or lower): Missouri Tigers

Missouri had a difficult and disappointing season, finishing just 8-8 in Big 12 play and falling all the way to an 11 seed. But for all the struggles they have had this season, Missouri is still a difficult team to play and a difficult team to prepare for. They pressure for 40 minutes. They force you to play their style of basketball. And when Marcus Denmon, Kim English, and company are making shots and Laurence Bowers and Ricardo Ratliffe are rebounding the basketball, the Tigers have the potential to be tough to beat.


Final Four Sleeper (5 or lower): Arizona Wildcats

Honestly, I don't love this pick. But I also am not smitten with seeds 6-9 in this region, either. Arizona has one of the best players in the country in Derrick Williams. He's efficient, his ability on the perimeter makes him a matchup problem, and he excels at getting to the foul line, something that makes him much more consistent as a scorer. Will that be enough to carry Arizona to the Final Four? Probably not. The Wildcats are going to need a good week out of Momo Jones, Jordin Mayes, and/or Kevin Parrom.


Player to Watch (8 and up): Tristan Thompson, Texas

Prior to an ugly, seven point, two rebound, and foul-plagued performance against Kansas in the Big 12 title game, Tristan Thompson was playing arguably the best basketball of his career. The 6'9" lefty was attacking the glass with reckless abandon, 38 offensive boards over a six game stretch. Texas went just 4-4 in their last eight games, but the reason the Longhorns even did that well was the play of Thompson down the stretch. He recorded 19 offensive rebounds in close wins over Baylor and Texas A&M, two excellent rebounding teams.


Player to Watch (9 and lower): Talor Battle, Penn State

I'm glad we will be able to see Battle play at least one game in the NCAA Tournament during his career as a Nittany Lion. This season, he's playing more off the ball with Tim Frazier at the point, which has freed him up to become a 20.1 ppg scorer on a team that plays the 341st slowest pace in the country. He's a lights out shooter that can drive to the rim. When he gets hot, he's capable of hitting four or five threes in a row, as Michigan State found out on Friday.


Best Matchup -- 1st Round: No. 5 Arizona vs. No. 12 Memphis

This issue for Memphis this season hasn't been a lack of talent. Its been a lack of leadership and a lack of emotional maturity from everyone on the team, including the veterans. In fact, in terms of raw ability, the Tigers probably look better on paper than Arizona does. That's why most people that Memphis in the preseason top 25 and Arizona on the outside looking in. The most interesting part of this game, however, is that Josh Pastner came up as as assistant with Arizona before taking the Memphis job when Calipari left.


Best Potential Matchup: No. 1 Duke vs. No. 3 UConn

The last two times these teams have played in the NCAA Tournament have been classics. In 1999, UConn beat Duke in the title game 77-74 in a game that no one thought the Huskies had a shot at winning. Then in 2004, UConn overcame an eight point deficit in the final three minutes of the game, winning 79-78 in the Final Four. This season would be just as fun, with Kemba Walker and Nolan Smith going head to head.


Upset Alert!!!: Texas, Cincinnati

Oakland is a very good basketball team. They operate about their center Keith Benson, a potential first round pick, who should be able to matchup with Tristan Thompson. Reggie Hamilton is a creator at the points (17.4 ppg, 5.4 apg) while Larry Wright and Will Hudson are quality role players. The Grizzlies are an excellent offensive team, so they should be able to put pressure on the Longhorns defense.

I also like Missouri over Cincinnati. I just don't think the Bearcats have the back court talent to be able to handle Missouri's press.
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2011 NCAA Tournament Bracket Breakdown: East Region

The East region is stacked. The top four seeds -- Ohio State, UNC, Syracuse, and Kentucky -- are all capable of reaching the Final Four. The teams in the 6-8 range -- Xavier, Washington, and George Mason -- are all teams that I pegged as sleeper picks before the bracket was announced.

Ohio State probably deserved better than this. They are the No. 1 overall seed, an they may end up having to be George Mason and Kentucky just to get to the Elite 8? That's less than ideal.


Final Four Favorite: Ohio State Buckeyes

The Buckeyes are the best team in the country. They are the most dominating force in the country on the block in Jared Sullinger. They have experience and savvy surrounding him on the perimeter with David Lighty, William Buford, and Jon Diebler. They have an excellent defensive and ball control point guard in Aaron Craft. This group is talented and balanced offensively. They are also disciplined and dangerous on the defensive end of the foul, where they are one of the best in the country at keeping their opponents off the foul line. The general consensus is that there are no great teams in college basketball this season. If Ohio State isn't great, then they are very, very good.


And if they lose?: North Carolina Tar Heels

I like this UNC team even though they got smacked around by Duke in the ACC Tournament final. Before that, they had won 14 of their last 15 games. Kendall Marshall at the point has made everyone on the team that much better. Harrison Barnes is now playing with the confidence he lacked for the first three months. Tyler Zeller and John Henson provide defense, rebounding, interior scoring, and are both perfect big men for Roy Williams' uptempo system. Dexter Strickland and Leslie McDonald are finally discovering their roles on this team. They have the pieces to string together four wins.


Sweet 16 Sleeper (10 or lower): Marquette Golden Eagles

Marquette is really the only team that I can see springing a couple of upsets. I like the makeup of their roster. They have some talented, experienced guards, led by Darius Johnson-Odom and Junior Cadougan, while once again fielding a team with some versatile big men that create all kinds of matchup problems, like Jae Crowder and Jimmy Butler. But the biggest thing about Marquette is that they are scrappy, they play as hard as a unit as any team in the country, and they never give up on a game.


Final Four Sleeper (5 or lower): Washington Huskies

The fact that this Washington team finished as a seven seed is shocking when you look at their roster on paper. This group is just so talented. Isaiah Thomas had a bit of a swoon late in the season, but he refound the magic in the Pac-10 tournament. Surrounding Thomas are two mobile and versatile big men as well as a handful of young but talented shooters and scorers on the perimeter. Isaiah Thomas is terrific in the pick and roll and teams that struggle to defend it will struggle against the Huskies.


Player to Watch (8 and up): Tu Holloway, Xavier

Last year, it was Xavier's Jordan Crawford that put the Muskies on his back and carried the team to the Sweet 16. With Crawford now in the NBA, Holloway has been the guy that carries this team. He averages 20.2 ppg, 5.5 apg, and 5.1 rpg. He's capable of going for 30 on a given night. He put this team on his back early in the season, and he's perfectly capable of doing it again in the postseason.


Player to Watch (9 and lower): Travis Leslie, Georgia

Leslie may not be the best NBA prospect in this portion of the bracket. He's not the best scorer in the country. He'll probably never be an all-american. But he is arguably the best dunker in the country, making him one of the most exciting players to watch.


Best Matchup -- 1st Round: No. 6 Xavier vs. No. 11 Marquette

All Marquette does is play close, exciting games. Why would that change in the NCAA Tournament? What makes this particular matchup intriguing to me is the matchup in the back court. Tu Holloway, as we wrote, is an incredible talent, but Buzz Williams has a couple of good defenders in his back court.

I also really like the matchup between George Mason and Villanova. Mason is legit. They have a couple playmakers on their perimeter in Luke Hancock and Cam Long as well as some legitimate size and scoring in the paint in Ryan Pearson and Mike Morrison. The Wildcats, however, are as talented as any team in the country. But they have now lost five straight games, seven of nine, and nine of thirteen.


Best Potential Matchup: No. 4 Kentucky vs. No. 1 Ohio State

There are a lot of great, great potential matchups in this region. Kentucky and Ohio State may be the best of the bunch simply because of how good this the Wildcats are. Kentucky may have gotten the worst draw of any team in the country. All year long, I've said this team has a chance to be a national title contender, but they somehow end up getting the best team in the country in the Sweet 16? Kentucky can match up with them, however. Josh Harrellson isn't a great player by any evaluation method, but he is big and strong enough that he won't be overwhelmed by Sullinger. (Relatively speaking, or course.) Throw in the three first round picks that Calipari will have at his disposal, and Ohio State will have their hands full.


Upset Alert!!!: Ohio State, UNC

I don't love any upsets in the second round in this region, but I can definitely see the Buckeyes falling to Kentucky in the Sweet 16. I also think that Washington has a great chance to knock off UNC in the third round. As we saw in the ACC tournament, UNC is susceptible to pressure, and Washington has the athletes to press effectively. I am also not sold on Kendall Marshall as a one-on-one defender, and with the size of Washington's wings, he'll be forced to guard Isaiah Thomas in isolation and on screen-and-rolls.
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2011 NCAA Tournament Bracket Breakdown: Southwest Region

There are all kinds of interesting story lines in the San Antonio region.

What kind of performance are we going to see out of Kansas? Will this be the 2008 Jayhawks, that won the national title, or the 2010 team, that got bounced in the second round? If UNLV advances past Illinois, Rebel center Quintrell Thomas will be playing his old team, Kansas. Vanderbilt is once again paired with a quality mid-major opponent. Morehead State gets another chance at knocking off in-state opponent Louisville after losing in the 2009 tournament. Florida State and Georgetown look to refind the magic if/when they get Chris Singleton and Chris Wright back. Akron, who plays their best basketball at home and just won the MAC tournament in Cleveland, heads back there to try and upset second seed Notre Dame.

Its a good thing that there are all these story lines. Because they basketball that will be played in this region -- especially at the bottom -- will be pretty ugly.


Final Four Favorite: Kansas Jayhawks

Kansas is arguably the most talented team in the country. They have a versatile, efficient, and potent front line with the Morrii and Thomas Robinson. They have a perimeter attack that goes six or seven deep, with some playing the role of experienced leader and others the talented youngsters. Put it all together, and Kansas is a team that always has five scorers on the floor. They run an inside-out attack and are at their best when they are crisply passing the ball around, creating driving lanes and open jumpers. Kansas is also a top 15 defensive team. When this team is clicking, they may be the best team in the country.


And if they lose?: Purdue Boilermakers

Yeesh. After Kansas, the Southwest region is pretty wide open. Notre Dame is an efficient and veteran team, but I don't know if they play enough defensive to make the Final Four. Purdue, on the other hand, is known for their work on the defensive end. The Boilermakers, led by E'Twaun Moore and Big Ten player of the year JaJuan Johnson, have also developed a nice offensive attack in the absence of Robbie Hummel. Lewis Jackson is a solid penetrator, Ryne Smith is a knock-down shooter, and Kelsey Barlow is filling the void left by Chris Kramer. After winning eight in a row late in the season, Purdue looked like a potential No. 1 seed. That went out the window, however, with a loss at Iowa and an ugly loss to Michigan State in the Big Ten tournament.


Sweet 16 Sleeper (10 or lower): Richmond Spiders

The Spiders are a very good basketball team even though they ended up with a 12 seed despite winning the A-10 tournament. Kevin Anderson is one of the best point guards in the country, lightening quick with the ball and dangerous from beyond the arc. Then there is Justin Harper, a versatile and athletic 6'10" forward that has a deadly jump shot. The Spiders get Vanderbilt in the first round, a team the Spiders match up well with and one that has a tendency to get upset in the first round, and then, barring an upset, Louisville, a team Richmond has more potential NBA


Final Four Sleeper (5 or lower): Georgetown Hoyas

There was a while when the Hoyas actually looked like the best team in the Big East this season. That was, however, before Chris Wright broke his hand. Wright has been cleared to play by Georgetown, but until we actually see him on the court, there is not telling what kind of threat the Hoyas will be. Without Wright, they are winless and completely inept on the offensive end.


Player to Watch (8 and up): John Jenkins, Vanderbilt

The Commodores sophomore had a strong backing as SEC player of the year this season. Chandler Parsons ended up winning the award, but it wasn't because Jenkins had a bad season. Quite the opposite, actually. Jenkins became Vandy's go-to scorer, averaging 19.5 ppg on 40.3% shooting from deep. He is sensational coming off of screens, and when he gets into a rhythm shooting the ball, he not only doesn't miss, he doesn't hit the rim.


Player to Watch (9 and lower): Kenneth Faried, Morehead State

If you have never seed Faried play, make sure you tune into this game. The dreadlocked, 6'8" power forward is an animal on the glass, averaging over 14 rpg this season while becoming college basketball's all-time leader in board work. He's a potential first round pick coming out of the OVC -- how often does that happen -- and has even drawn comparisons to Dennis Rodman on the court. He averaged 17.5 ppg, 15.0 rpg, 3.5 spg, and 2.0 bpg in two games at Florida and at Ohio State. Faried has played Louisville before. He had 14 points and 11 boards as a sophomore when the Eagles gave the No. 1 seed Cardinals a scare.


Best Matchup -- 1st Round: No. 8 UNLV vs. No. 9 Illinois

Illinois was one of the most disappointing teams in the country this season. Demetri McCamey, who everyone thought was going to compete to be an all-american, has regressed to the selfish jump shooter he was as a sophomore while neither Mike Davis not Mike Tisdale have developed to be a low post scoring threat. The latter is the bigger issue against UNLV, as the way to expose the Rebels is through quality interior play. UNLV has been fairly disappointing themselves, but they do have some terrific perimeter defenders. Illinois' key will be to make sure they keep the ball moving offensively.


Best Potential Matchup: No. 2 Notre Dame vs. No. 3 Purdue

Notre Dame has a high-powered offense that is centered around the playmaking of Ben Hansbrough and the decision making of the rest of their veteran lineup. The Irish execute offensively, they don't make mistakes and turn the ball over, and they hit their open jumpers. Where the Irish can get exposed from time to time is in the paint, and while Purdue does have JaJuan Johnson on the roster, he's not exactly a powerful low-post presence as much as he is a face-up four with three point range.


Upset Alert!!!: Vanderbilt, Notre Dame

There are two areas where Vanderbilt will struggle on the defensive end of the floor -- quick points guards and face-up big men. Richmond has both in Kevin Anderson and Justin Harper. Throw in the fact that Vanderbilt and Kevin Stallings haven't exactly proven to be capable of winning a big game, this should be a popular pick.

I think Notre Dame can get picked off by either Texas A&M or Florida State in the second round. Both teams have big, strong front courts and both teams defend very well. Will Notre Dame be able to score like they did against Cincinnati in the Big East tournament, or like they did in the second half against Louisville a night later.
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2010 NCAA Tournament Bracket Breakdown: Sleepers that may keep sleeping

How do you define a sleeper?

A sleeper, at least when talking about college hoops, is a team that is capable of making it further than they are expected to based on their seed. But there's a catch: to be a "sleeper", you have to like them to win at least two games, and to make it least one game (preferably two) beyond where they are expected if chalk holds. Five seeds can't be Sweet 16 sleepers. Two seeds can't be Final Four sleepers. If you only think they can win one game, they aren't a sleeper; they are an upset pick.

Sleepers come in all shapes and sizes. Sleepers can come from the low- and mid-major conferences. Sleepers can come from the power conferences. Sleepers can have all-americans and lottery picks. Sleepers can lack a single all-conference player. Sleepers can be picked based on talent, style of play, and/or matchups. Most importantly, correctly predicting the "sleepers" is how you win your pool. And isn't that why all of you are reading this?

Today, we will be schooling you on the sleepers. Who should you trust? Who shouldn't you trust?

Here are the "sleepers" who may keep sleeping:


Cornell Big Red: #12 seed, East Region

Don't get me wrong, I love this Cornell team. Ryan Wittman is one of the best shooters I've seen this year, Louis Dale is a former Ivy player of the year, and Jeff Foote is a capable big man and a legitimate seven footer. Cornell can play, there's no question about it. But the Big Red got a tough first round draw. Temple won the A-10 regular season and tournament titles. They beat Villanova, Siena, Richmond, and Xavier. The Owls are a very good basketball team. They really defend well and they can execute offensively. Cornell is a good matchup for them because the Big Red doesn't have any overpowering size. Temple will have as good of a chance as anyone as keeping Wittman from getting hot. The reason people like Jay Bilas love Cornell is because of a close loss to Kansas. And I know Temple got smacked by Kansas at home, but the Jayhawks would have beaten the T'Wolves that afternoon.


Washington Huskies: #11 seed, East Region

I understand that Washington has talent. I understand that this is a team that was supposed to be one of the best in the country. And I also remember that I said U-Dub could win a game or two. But something happened last night that made me think a bit harder about the Huskies. Specifically, Arizona State lost. At home. To Jacksonville. Further proof of just how bad this conference is. Washington lost seven games in conference play and really, really struggled away from. That's not a great precursor to a successful tournament.


St. Mary's Gaels: #10 seed, East Region

Like Cornell, I like this SMC team. They shoot the ball really well and have one of the most underrated big men in the country in Omar Samhan. That said, SMC got stuck with Richmond in the first round. The Spiders caught a bad break when they were seeded seventh. Rest assured this Richmond team can play. They like to slow things down and spread the floor, allowing Kevin Anderson and David Gonzalvez to create. There aren't ten better guard combos in the country than those two. While St. Mary's has a solid back court, Matthew Dellavedova and Mickey McConnell aren't exactly the best defenders. I know what you're thinking: "but who is going to stop Samhan?" Answer: Dan Geriot. Geriot has plenty of size, and before a knee injury cost him last season he was an all conference big man averaging 14 ppg.




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2010 NCAA Tournament Bracket Breakdown: Sleepers you have seen

How do you define a sleeper?

A sleeper, at least when talking about college hoops, is a team that is capable of making it further than they are expected to based on their seed. But there's a catch: to be a "sleeper", you have to like them to win at least two games, and to make it least one game (preferably two) beyond where they are expected if chalk holds. Five seeds can't be Sweet 16 sleepers. Two seeds can't be Final Four sleepers. If you only think they can win one game, they aren't a sleeper; they are an upset pick.

Sleepers come in all shapes and sizes. Sleepers can come from the low- and mid-major conferences. Sleepers can come from the power conferences. Sleepers can have all-americans and lottery picks. Sleepers can lack a single all-conference player. Sleepers can be picked based on talent, style of play, and/or matchups. Most importantly, correctly predicting the "sleepers" is how you win your pool. And isn't that why all of you are reading this?

Today, we will be schooling you on the sleepers. Who should you trust? Who shouldn't you trust?

Here are the sleepers that you have seen play:


Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets: #10 seed, Midwest Region

If there is one thing that we have learned about Georgia Tech this season its that they aren't to be trusted. Paul Hewitt's club is overflowing with talent, especially on their super-sized front line, but the potentially-lame-duck head coach has had a heckuva time trying to figure out how to get this team in sync. Normally, I would not recommend putting much -- if any -- faith in Tech, but I really like their matchups the first weekend. Georgia Tech's DeAndre Bell is a tough kid, making it all way back from spinal stenosis, the same injury that derailed TJ Ford's career. He is a very good defender on the perimeter, and both Oklahoma State and Ohio State rely heavily on a star player -- James Anderson and Evan Turner. It also doesn't take a basketball genius to realize that neither of the OSU's have much size or depth inside. Georgia Tech does with Gani Lawal, Derrick Favors, and Zach Peacock. If the Yellow Jackets can put it all together, they can win a game or two in this tournament.


Siena Saints: #13 seed, South Region

Everyone is going to be picking Siena in the first round against Purdue. The Boilermakers were going to be a popular pick for an early exit ever since Robbie Hummel blew his acl. But after scoring just a measly 11 points against Minnesota in the first half of their Big Ten semifinal, Purdue dropped down to a four seed. I get the feeling that the disappointment of this season is going to be weighing pretty heavily on Purdue. If Siena can jump on the Boilermakers early, I think they might fold. Regardless of who the Saints would get in the second round -- Texas A&M or Utah State -- I think it is going to be more about what Siena can do than what their opponent can. The Saints are talented enough that they don't need to rely on a good matchup to knock off higher seeded team. Remember, when discussing the possibility of calling this season a disappointment for the Saints, all of their big matchups came on the road. This is a team that has been waiting for March ever since they lost a dogfight to Louisville in last year's second round, and you could tell by some listless play late in the year. Siena is balanced (only team with four scorers at 13 ppg or higher), they are experienced, they have size, and they have a phenomenal point guard in Ronald Moore.


Gonzaga Bulldogs: #8th seed, West Region

I think the Zags are going to have some trouble with Florida State in the first round. They always get flustered against teams with as much length and athleticism as the Seminoles have. If they do happen to get past FSU, I really like the way the Zags match up with Syracuse, especially with Onuaku out. They have size inside, and their two best post players are far from what you would call a stiff. Both are offensive weapons on the block or at the high post. Steven Gray, and to a lesser extent guys off the bench like Manny Arop and Bol Kong, are shot makers on the perimeter. But the player that makes the difference against this zone is Matt Bouldin. He's the guy that can penetrate and get into the paint; he's the guy that can beat the zone with his passing; he's the Zag's star. I also like the Sweet 16 matchups Gonzaga would face. The Bulldogs have a team that can make an Elite 8 run. But how often have you heard that about Gonzaga?

Marquette Golden Eagles: #6 seed, East Region

I keep saying it. Over and over again. Marquette is not a team you want to face in the NCAA Tournament. They're tough, they're battle-tested, and they know how to get you playing their style. The Golden Eagles like when their games become a slower, grind-it-out paced affait. It works perfectly for them on the offensive end, as most teams are going to eventually break down defensively, especially when dealing with as many mismatches as the Golden Eagles cause. Their matchup with Washington should be entertaining, but I think Marquette picks up the win. After tonight's NIT performance, I have officially lost all faith in Pac-10 teams. New Mexico's personnel matches up well with Marquette's, in that they both like to try and exploit mismatches on the perimeter with the four and five man. That said, I simply think Marquette has better players and shooters. When Marquette is hitting their threes, watch out. If the Golden Eagles and West Virginia meet in the Sweet 16, it is going to be a battle. WVU beat Marquette in Morgantown on a buzzer beater from Da'Sean Butler. Both are very physical teams that don't mind getting physical and playing a scrappy style of basketball. If Marquette can keep the much bigger 'Eers off the glass, they can win it.

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2010 NCAA Tournament Bracket Breakdown: Sleepers you haven't seen

How do you define a sleeper?

A sleeper, at least when talking about college hoops, is a team that is capable of making it further than they are expected to based on their seed. But there's a catch: to be a "sleeper", you have to like them to win at least two games, and to make it least one game (preferably two) beyond where they are expected if chalk holds. Five seeds can't be Sweet 16 sleepers. Two seeds can't be Final Four sleepers. If you only think they can win one game, they aren't a sleeper; they are an upset pick.

Sleepers come in all shapes and sizes. Sleepers can come from the low- and mid-major conferences. Sleepers can come from the power conferences. Sleepers can have all-americans and lottery picks. Sleepers can lack a single all-conference player. Sleepers can be picked based on talent, style of play, and/or matchups. Most importantly, correctly predicting the "sleepers" is how you win your pool. And isn't that why all of you are reading this?

Today, we will be schooling you on the sleepers. Who should you trust? Who shouldn't you trust?

Here are the sleepers you haven't seen play:


Old Dominion Monarchs: #11 seed, South Region

Old Dominion does some things very well. They are big, athletic, and tough. They defend. They can rebound with anyone in the country. And while they drew maybe the hottest team in the country in the first round, it is a good matchup for the Monarchs. Notre Dame's new style is to really slow the game down, something Old Dominion wants to do as well. Notre Dame does not rebound the ball well, struggles against some of the more physical teams, and could have issues getting stops, much like they did against West Virginia in the Big East semifinals. Of ODU can get by the Irish, they will likely face Baylor, another team they matchup well with. The Bears are just as good on the offensive glass as the Monarchs and may actually have more size. Baylor struggles to rebound in their zone defense, however, which Old Dominion should be able to take advantage of. If the Monarchs can force Tweety Carter and Lace Dunn into poor shooting nights, Old Dominion could very well reach the Sweet 16.


UTEP Miners: #12 seed, West Region

UTEP drew Butler in the first round of the tournament, a team that has been in and around the top ten for much of the season. Butler is a good team -- they went undefeated against their conference, beat Xavier and Ohio State, and have no bad losses. No matter how you slice it, that equals a good team. But where Butler struggles is when they face teams that are bigger and more athletic than them. UTEP, on paper, looks like a high-major team, at least sizewise. Arnett Moultrie is the Miner's center, and he stands 6'11". Derrick Caracter is 6'9", 270 lb. Claude Britten is 6'11". Jeremy Williams and Julyan Stone are 6'6" and 6'7" on the wing. Ronald Nored, at 6'3", is Butler's starting power forward.

I like UTEP in a possible matchup with Vanderbilt as well. Is it possible that Vandy is overrated as a four seed? The SEC is better than last year, but it is still not a great league. Vandy lost five games in conference. They lost six games to teams that missed the NCAA Tournament. This is not a good defensive team, and a downright bad rebounding team. Vandy's strength is that they run a complicated offensive system -- they are a difficult team to prepare for, especially when you only have one day between game -- but UTEP's strength is their defensive ability. Don't be surprised if the Miners make a run.


San Diego State Aztecs: #11 seed, Midwest Region

The Aztecs caught a break with their draw, as their first two games will be against Tennessee and (in all likelihood) Georgetown. Neither the Hoyas or the Vols have big front lines, and neither are all that good on the glass. SDSU, on the other hand, may have the best front line in this region. Kawhi Leonard, Billy White, and Malcolm Thomas are all athletic and aggressive and they go hard to the offensive back boards. SDSU does have some issues. They turn the ball over quite a bit, which could be a problem against Tennessee's pressure. They are not all that good at defending the three, and Georgetown can some guys that can shoot. But SDSU is playing as well as they have all year long. They have won five in a road, nine out of ten, and 13 of their last 16 games. The only three losses in that string, which includes two wins over UNLV and a win over New Mexico, are to BYU (twice) and New Mexico.


BYU Cougars: #7 seed, West Region

I think BYU can make the Final Four. There. I said it. Now lets talk about it. The Cougars are a high-powered offensive team that likes to get out and run the floor. Their attack is spear-headed by Jimmer Fredette, who is the only player in the country to hit 40 twice this season. The Cougars generally have three other shooters on the court with Fredette, which opens up the middle of the floor. I don't foresee BYU having much trouble with Florida, which sets up an interesting matchup with Kansas State. There are two things that the Wildcats do to win games -- they force turnovers and they attack the offensive glass. The two things that BYU is the best at? Protecting the basketball and finishing defensive possessions with a rebound. In fact, they have the second best defensive rebounding percentage in the country. Granted, BYU tends to be phenomenal against poor competition and only average against the best competition, but this, like I said, is a favorable matchup. If the Cougars happen to get through to the Sweet 16, they will essentially be playing a home game, as the West Regional is played in Salt Lake City. BYU fans are loud, they are passionate, and they make the Cougars a much better team.

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2010 NCAA Tournament Bracket Breakdown: Five teams that may disappoint

Baylor: The Bears have all of a sudden become a trendy pick to make the Final Four. I get it. I like them too. Heck, I'm probably picking this team to get to the Final Four, there's a lot to like about them. Tweety Carter and Lace Dunn form an excellent back court. Ekpe Udoh and Quincy Acy anchor a long and athletic front line. Baylor attacks the offensive glass and they shoot the three well. But what worries me about Baylor is their defense. They block a lot of shots, but they also give up too much penetration, allow too many open shots, and don't force many turnovers. That doesn't mean this team can't make a run, but trendy picks aren't always as good as we build them up to be.


Cornell:

Again, Cornell is a team I like. They are an experienced group that executes beautifully offensively. They have size, shooting, a standout point guard, and a big time scorer. Anyone that saw them hang tough with Kansas at Kansas will agree - Cornell is going to give someone problems this year. But just how much? Remember, we're basing out assumptions of this team based on wins at Alabama and UMass and a close loss to Kansas. This team also lost to Seton Hall at home and to Penn. They are not athletic, and they drew two tough match-ups -- Temple and potentially Wisconsin, both disciplined defensive teams -- in the first two rounds. I'm not saying Cornell can't win a game this season, but let's be realistic with out expectations (Jay Bilas had Cornell in the Elite 8).


Siena:

The Saints seem to almost be a given to win their first round game, almost to the point that they could actually be the favored team. It makes sense. Purdue struggled without Robbie Hummel, and Siena is a talented and balanced team that has been here before. I'm not knocking Siena here, but don't count out Purdue. This is a veteran club that no doubt hears the talk -- Duke got a gift with them in their draw, Siena's going to win the first round. This is a team that plays defense with a lot of toughness and pride and still has E'Twuan Moore and JaJuan Johnson.


Kentucky:

The Wildcats have as much talent as any team in recent memory. But as we all know, this team is full of youthful exuberance that, at times, can manifest itself as immaturity and poor decision making. Now that we know what Kentucky's matchups are, it gets a little more tricky. Texas has people that can defend DeMarcus Cousins (Dexter Pittman) and John Wall (Avery Bradley/Justin Mason). Temple and Wisconsin slow down the game and play a frustrating style. West Virginia will beat up the Wildcats. Its a tough draw for the young Wildcats, and anything short of a Final Four for this team is a disappointment.


Pitt:

I'm not sold on the Panthers. I look at them as a poor mans Wisconsin. They can play defense and hang in a slugfest, but where are they going to get their scoring from? Ashton Gibbs can shoot, but he isn't a point guard. Gilbert Brown can dunk on you, but how consistent is his perimeter shot? Brad Wanamaker and Jermaine Dixon are inconsistent. This team had a great start to Big East play, but faded late. Maybe teams have figured out how to beat the Panthers. I don't see them getting past Xavier.
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2010 NCAA Tournament Bracket Breakdown: South Region

You know how every year, there is one region that throws a wrench into everyone's bracket? One region where upsets happen, surprises abound, and the lucky few that happen to guess right win the bracket because of that particular region? Well, that's the south this season. Duke got a gift with this bracket. It has the lowest two, the lowest three, and the four seed that is missing their most important player.

This region, in all likelihood, is going to be a mess. And probably the most exciting.

So with that in mind, here is your South Region breakdown:



Final Four Favorite: Duke Blue Devils

Duke probably has to be considered the favorite in this region. Nothing against the Blue Devils, as they are a very talented team. I don't care how mediocre the ACC is, winning a conference regular season and tournament title is commendable. The Blue Devils have as good of a big three as anyone in the country, with Kyle Singler, Jon Scheyer, and Nolan Smith. Their front court is as big and as athletic as it has been in years. Brian Zoubek has all of a sudden become a rebounding force. Kenpom says they're the best team in the country. Who am I to argue. That said, Duke has struggled away from Cameron this season. And this group has struggled in March since they have been in Durham. I've said this over and over again -- you have to learn how to win. Has Duke done that yet?


And if they lose?: Baylor Bears

Baylor is actually my pick to make the Final Four out of this bracket. I love their back court of Tweety Carter and Lace Dunn. I love their length and athleticism. I love Ekpe Udoh. I love how aggressively they go to the offensive glass. What does concern me, however, is that both Duke and Villanova have talented guards that can penetrate and they can shoot threes. That is how you beat the Baylor zone.


Sweet 16 Sleeper (10 or lower): Siena Saints (UPDATE: Apparently, Clarence Jackson rolled his ankle in practice on Saturday and was on crutches during the selection show Sunday night.)

There are a number of teams that can be picked here (Utah State, Old Dominon, St. Mary's), but I think the Saints have the best chance. Siena isn't sneaking up on anyone this year, not after winning a game the last two tournaments. But that doesn't mean Siena isn't a good team. There are two things I like about this Siena team -- experience and balance. All the guys on this team have been through the tournament before; the Saints aren't going to be blinded by the lights. The Saints are also the only team this season to have four players average more than 13 ppg. I really like how well Edwin Ubiles and Alex Franklin match up with major conference players. But the key to this team is point guard Ronald Moore, who doesn't get enough national recognition. The kid led the country in assists this year, is fantastic in the open floor, and has made clutch shots. Moore, and Siena has a whole, doesn't rattle easy, meaning Moore shouldn't be affected by the tough defense he will face against Texas A&M and Purdue. One last Siena note - keep in mind, when talking about the losses the Saints had to quality out of conference opponents, that all of those games were on the road.


Final Four Sleeper (5 or lower): Texas A&M Aggies

I was going to pick Richmond, but I will be getting to them in a minute, so I went with the Aggies here. A&M is a tough team, not just physically, but mentally as well. How many teams would have dealt with a catastrophic injury to their emotional leader (Derrick Roland's broken leg) like A&M did? This is a team that likes to control the tempo and plays defense. Donald Sloan is there star, but Brian Davis and David Loubeau are solid up front as well. The Aggies fate may rest on the health of Dash Harris.


Seeded too high: Notre Dame Fighting Irish

Slo-tre Dame has been very good playing under this new system, but don't let this new style make you forget about the how poorly the Irish played before this stretch. Just a month ago, Notre Dame was considered completely out of the tournament conversation. The last time we saw a run like this out of the Big East, Gerry McNamara led Syracuse through the Big East Tournament and from the bubble to a five seed. They lost in the first round. I'm just sayin'.


Seeded too low: Richmond Spiders

Richmond is a very good basketball team. They beat Mississippi State, Missouri, Old Dominion, and Florida out of conference. They won 13 games in league play, finishing second in the A-10 regular season, and made the tournament finals. They finished 22nd in the RPI. How did they end up as a seven seed? Richmond loves to spread the floor. They have a big man that is a competent passer out of the high post. They have one of the best back courts in the country with David Gonzalvez and Kevin Anderson. Think of their offense as a cross between Georgetown and Marquette. Like I said, this is a very good basketball team, and Villanova should be concerned.


Player to Watch (8 and up): David Gonzalvez and Kevin Anderson, Richmond, and Ekpe Udoh, Baylor

Like I said, Richmond's back court is as good as any in the country; there aren't 10 back courts I would rather have. Gonzalvez is bigger and a better shooter, while Anderson is a crafty scorer that is difficult to keep out of the lane. They play well together, and both have shown an ability to hit big shots. Ekpe Udoh has made an amazing improvement this season. After sitting the year out per transfer requirements, Udoh has returned as a much, much better player offensively and a guy that anchors Baylor inside defensively.


Player to Watch (9 and lower): Omar Samhan, St. Mary's

Samhan is a big, fiery center that can score on the block, rebound the ball, and was named WCC defensive player of the year. He's a legitimate 20-10 guy. St. Mary's gets Richmond and Villanova in the first two rounds, two teams that lack a big man in the post. St. Mary's has a couple talented guards in Mickey McConnell and Matthew Dellevedova, but neither of those two are known as good defenders. SMC has a chance to make the Sweet 16, but it is going to take a big weekend from Samhan. He's capable of it.


Best Matchup -- 1st Round: #7 Richmond vs. #10 St. Mary's

Two of the best mid-majors in the country. Richmond is a team based on their guard play, as we mentioned already. St. Mary's relies on Samhan inside and the open threes he creates on the perimeter. Richmond has a big guy inside in Dan Geriot, but the former all-conference player has struggled since coming back from a torn acl. McConnell and Dellavedova will have their hands full trying to stop the Richmond back court. Who's going to step up defensively?

Notre Dame has been so good since slowing down their attack. They execute flawlessly in the half court and have ramped up their defensive intensity. That said, they are coming off of a loss to a West Virginia team that is similar to Old Dominion. Big, athletic, aggressive on the glass, tough defensively. Notre Dame did not look good against West Virginia, and may struggle against the equally slowed-down Monarchs. Expect this game to finish in the 50's.


Best Potential Matchup: #3 Baylor vs. #2 Villanova

Man, would this be an entertaining game to watch. Villanova struggles against big, athletic teams, which is Baylor to a T. But Baylor struggles against teams with dynamic, penetrating guards and three point shooters, which is Villanova to a T. Villanova's biggest weakness is on the defensive end. They foul too much and they will struggle on the glass against the Bears. But Villanova has guys that are proven winners and deep tournament experience. Baylor doesn't.


Upset Alert!!!: Old Dominion, Siena, St. Mary's/Richmond

We've talked about Siena beating Purdue, and we've also talked about Old Dominion's matchup with Notre Dame. But I think that both the Gaels and the Spiders will matchup well with Villanova. The Wildcats don't have answer inside for Omar Samhan, who may go to the line 30 times if these two meet up. I'm also not sure if Scottie Reynolds and Corey Fisher will be able to stay in front of Anderson and Gonzalvez. Villanova better come ready to play.


Anything Else?:

• We didn't get a chance to mention it, but the Cal-Louisville game should be quite entertaining. The Bears can score with the best of them, and I don't care how well you play it, defending shooters against in a zone is a tough thing to do. That said, tell me who on Cal can handle Samardo Samuels?
  


• Am I the only one hoping "Wild Bill" makes the trip to Spokane? He wasn't at the WAC title game.
  


• The last seven games, Notre Dame has had a total of 392 possessions, or 56.0 per game. That would rank dead last nationally in terms of tempo.
  

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2010 NCAA Tournament Bracket Breakdown: West Region

The East Region could get pretty interesting. Is Arinze Onuaku's quad ok? Will UTEP be a favorite against Butler? Is it possible that the six and seven seeds are better than the two and three seeds?

Syracuse, with a healthy Onuaku, is the best team in the bracket. But there's no telling how serious is injury really is. Is it bad enough that he can't play, or is Boeheim rolling the dice, hoping he can get his center back to 100% for the second weekend? What kind of shape will he be in when he gets back?

So with that in mind, here is your East Region breakdown:



Final Four Favorite: Syracuse Orange

The Cuse, who I'm assuming will be without Arinze Onuaku for the first weekend but will be getting him back for the Sweet 16, have a pretty difficult road assuming chalk holds. I think both Gonzaga and Vanderbilt match up well and are well suited against a zone. K-State rebounds the ball well, which is something that is always difficult to do against a zone. That said, the length Syracuse has at every position in this zone makes it very unique. You rarely see a team as good as they are at forcing turnovers in their zone. Jim Boeheim made a point after the Georgetown game -- once they get out of the Big East, they will be playing people unfamiliar with the zone. Their last two losses are to Louisville (Rick Pitino plays a 2-3) and Georgetown (played Syracuse three times, finally figured out the zone late in the third game).


And if they lose?: Kansas State Wildcats

A lot of people have been doubting Kansas State, but I like this team. Overall, there is not an overwhelming about of basketball skill on this team. What they do have is a couple of stars in the back court and a front line loaded with aggressive athletes. And the Wildcats play to that stile. Frank Martin lets Jacob Pullen and Denis Clemente create and take advantage of their skill, and relies on guys like Jamar Samuels, Curtis Kelly, and Dominique Sutton to go clean up the mess. If there is one flaw to this team, its how much they foul. The Wildcats pressure defensively and force a lot of turnovers, but its results in a lot of fouls and a lot of free throws for their opponent's.


Sweet 16 Sleeper (10 or lower): UTEP Miners

The addition of Derrick Caracter to this team made them complete. They have a dynamic scorer in their back court. They have size inside. They have a playmaker on the perimeter. And now they have a bruiser in the paint. The Miners are largely unproven. They lost to the two Ole Miss and BYU, and their only two good wins came against UAB. But UTEP won their last 16 games before the C-USA final, they defend, and they have the "look" of a major conference team.


Final Four Sleeper (5 or lower): Xavier Musketeers

Xavier may have a new coach, but this is still the same old Musketeer program. This team is tough. They were left for dead after losing their five marquee non-conference games, but the Muskies rallied. They won 16 of their last 19 games, which included wins at Florida and against Richmond. Xavier has a ton of size inside, led by the underrated Jason Love, and a good back court. Jordan Crawford may struggle with shot selection at times, but there is no doubt that the kid can score. Terrell Holloway is a steady point guard that can create and has a knack for hitting big shots down the stretch. Most of all, this is a program with a culture of winning. I don't generally like statements like that, but its true. Think about the tournament runs Xavier has made in the past. They expect to win; winning is a mentality. Xavier has it.


Seeded too high: Butler Bulldogs

Don't get me wrong, Butler is a quality basketball team. You don't go undefeated in your conference, regardless of the conference, if you are not a quality basketball team. But their only wins of note are against Ohio State (without Evan Turner) and Xavier (at home and at the buzzer). Look, I love what Brad Stevens has done with this program. I think the world of Gordon Hayward and Shelvin Mack as basketball players. Matt Howard is a bulldog in the paint. But Butler simply cannot handle the length and athleticism of the best teams in the country. Matt Howard is a land warrior that is ineffective against bigger players. Their power forward is 6'3" Ronald Nored, who is a scrapper and a defender but doesn't have a jump shot. I also think it deserves mention that Florida, who many believe was the last team in, got a 10 seed. But that low in the bracket, seeding quirks lead me to believe it had more to do with bracketing rules than with merit.


Seeded too low: Gonzaga Bulldogs

I don't have a huge issue with the Zags seed, although I think they probably deserved a six or a seven seed. I think that losses to Loyola Marymount and San Francisco in conference, combined with a blowout loss to Duke at Madison Square Garden. The Zags were also hurt by there schedule -- which looked so daunting in the preseason -- ended up being less than great as teams like Michigan State, Cincinnati, Oklahoma, and Illinois underperformed. But I also think this Gonzaga team is good. Elias Harris is a star in the making. Matt Bouldin is as good of a guard as you will find at this level. Steven Gray and Robert Sacre are both above average players at their position. Mark Few is a fantastic coach. If Gonzaga can get by Florida State, I think they match up well with Syracuse.


Player to Watch (8 and up): Jimmer Fredette, BYU

Did you really think it would be someone else? Fredette is one of the most exciting players in the country to watch. A little bit Steve Nash, a little bit Deron Williams, and a little bit Hot Sauce, Fredette is always a threat to go for 40 points. He has in-the-gym range -- even when shooting off the dribble with a hand in his face. He has and-1 mixtape handle. He hits big shots, he can pass the ball, and he is the catalyst for the high-powered BYU offense. BYU has a talented roster -- and sophomore Michael Lloyd has been a more than capable backup -- but Fredette is the guy that makes BYU a threat to get out of the first weekend.


Player to Watch (9 and lower): Marqus Blakely, Vermont, and Randy Culpepper, UTEP

Marqus Blakely is a fantasy stud. How many players have ever led their team in points, rebounds, assists, blocks, and steals at any level? Randy Culpepper is a dynamic scoring point guard, capable of going for 30 any night. But that's not why you want to watch them. This is. And this. And this, this, this, and this.


Best Matchup -- 1st Round: #4 Vanderbilt vs. #13 Murray State

You know, there really aren't any great first round games here. So I'll say this -- Murray State and Vanderbilt are 2 hours and 20 minutes apart, according to Google Maps. They will have to go to San Jose to play each other -- and use this as a chance to talk about Vanderbilt. The Commodores are a very good team this season. They are big, they have athletes, they have a couple of shooters, and they have Jermaine Beal, who is starting to get some recognition nationally. Vanderbilt is very well coached, run a ton of different plays, and are one of the most difficult teams in the country to prepare for. Don't be surprised to see them make a run.


Best Potential Matchup: #6 Xavier vs. #2 Kansas State

The Muskies and the Wildcats are both tough, physical teams. They both have excellent guard play, and they both have big front lines. They both play extremely hard for passionate, intense coaches. This game would no doubt be a dogfight, and who doesn't enjoy a game like that?


Upset Alert!!!: UTEP, Xavier, BYU

I really like UTEP over Butler. I think the Miners have enough athleticism to frustrate Butler, and I think that Brad Stevens is going to have trouble finding somewhere to use Ronald Nored, especially defensively. But everyone is going to have that pick. As much as I like this Kansas State team, I think that Xavier and BYU both match up well with them. I wouldn't be shocked if any of those three teams made the Elite 8.


Anything Else?:

• There are so many quality point guards in this region. Jimmer Fredette, Jacob Pullen/Denis Clemente, Kenny Boynton/Erving Walker, Jermaine Beal, Matt Bouldin, Randy Culpepper, Shelvin Mack. Does anyone else find it ironic the best team in the region doesn't have a player on that list?
  


• You might as well call this the bubble region. Minnesota, Florida, and UTEP were all among the last few teams into the dance.
  


• The last time Syracuse and Vermont played in the tournament was in the 2005 first round. The Catamounts beat the Orange in overtime as Gus Johnson unleashed the classic line "He hit that one from the parking lot!" Speaking of rematches, who else remembers the classic Pitt and Xavier played last season?
  

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2010 NCAA Tournament Bracket Breakdown: East Region

Like Kansas, Kentucky got a tough draw. West Virginia is the best two seed, and most believe they should have been a one. Temple and Wisconsin are both teams that could give the Cats trouble. This might be the most balanced of the brackets, as I doubt a Sweet 16 run by Washington or Cornell would surprise anyone.

If the brackets had themes, the theme of the East is team play. Many of the best teams in the teams in this region thrive due to their system as opposed to one or two stars players.

So with that in mind, let's take a look at the East Region:



Final Four Favorite: Kentucky Wildcats

We all know the flaws the Wildcats. They are young. They are inexperienced. They are immature. They can't shoot. But if there a team in the country with more raw talent than Kentucky, than an NBA team is playing in the tournament. When they are playing well, John Wall and DeMarcus Cousins are both unstoppable. Patrick Patterson is an all-american and more than willing to be a glue guy for this team. Eric Bledsoe would probably average 15 and 6 assists if he was playing on any other teams. They have size and athleticism on the bench. Perhaps the best thing I can say about the Wildcats is that they have shown they are able to win a tight game. This team will be an interesting one to watch.


And if they lose?: West Virginia Mountaineers

Is there a team playing with more confidence than the Eers right now? West Virginia is a difficult matchup for pretty much any team. At any given time, they will have four guys on the court that are between 6'7"-6'9" that can shoot, can score in the post, and can get an offensive rebound. They are tough, physical, and aggressive. They are getting much more out of their point guard at this point in the season, and Da'Sean Butler seems destined to be this year's March hero. I'm sure there are going to be quite a few people that pick WVU over Kentucky.


Sweet 16 Sleeper (10 or lower): Cornell Big Red and Washington Huskies

Cornell seems like the obvious choice here. The Big Red didn't play an overly difficult schedule, but they did beat both Alabama and UMass on the road, while also outplaying Kansas for 36 minutes at the Phog. But is it really a good sign when people are saying the reason you have a chance to be an NCAA Tournament cinderella story is a close loss? Cornell runs an efficient offense and execute as well as anyone in the country. They have size inside, a star point guard, and a big time shooter and scorer. But they can't defend and are as athletic as a DIII team.

Washington was a consensus top 25 team in the preseason and many had the Huskies in the top 10. For a myriad of reasons, the Huskies struggled this season -- defensive intensity, poor shot selection, high expectations for Abdul Gaddy. But the bottom line is that U-Dub has two stars in Quincy Pondexter and Isaiah Thomas and is coming into the tournament playing as well as they have all season.


Final Four Sleeper (5 or lower): Marquette Golden Eagles and Texas Longhorns

Like West Virginia, part of what makes Marquette so good is how difficult they are to match-up with. The Golden Eagles run an interesting system, spreading the floor and allowing their talented back court to drive and kick. Lazar Hayward and Jimmy Butler are both incredibly difficult matchups for most teams because they can defend and rebound in the post, but also can hit the three and put the ball on the floor and get to the rim. Marquette is also as tested as any team coming in, having played -- and won -- so many close games, especially late in the season. If Marquette is hitting their threes, watch out.

Texas is an interesting case. They were top five in the country for a long time early in the season, but then the Longhorns collapsed. That said, I think the Longhorns can match up very well with Kentucky. Dexter Pittman has the size and strength to battle Cousins. Avery Bradley is noted for his defense, as his Justin Mason, and matchup as well with John Wall as anyone. Damion James is an all-american. If Texas clicks, why can't they return to their early season form? Then again, haven't we been saying that for months?


Seeded too high: Wake Forest Demon Deacons

Wake struggled mightily down the stretch of the ACC season as they lost five of their last six, culminating in a 20 point beatdown at the hands of Miami. If it wasn't for a couple good wins in the non-conference part of the schedule, this Wake team probably would have been left out of the tournament. On more than one occasion, I've seem Wake called the worst at-large team in the field.


Seeded too low: Temple Owls

The committee really held the A-10 in low regard. Temple won the league's regular season and the conference tournament, beat Villanova -- as well Siena and Virginia Tech -- and lost to Georgetown by one, and was ranked 9th in the RPI. And they ended up a five seed? The Owls are as good as anyone in the country on the defensive end, have a couple of talented scorers, and a solid big man. This is a very good basketball team.


Player to Watch (8 and up): Darington Hobson, New Mexico

With all due respect to Trevor Booker, Trevon Hughes, and Darius Johnson-Odom/Lazar Hayward, the guy you want to keep an eye on in this region is Hobson. Hobson is not the most athletic player, but he is incredibly talented. At 6'7", he is a small forward than can get to the rim, rebound the ball, and is as good as anyone at his size at finding assists. The Lobos have a lot of talent on their roster -- Roman Martinez has hit as many big shots as anyone, Dairese Gary does not get enough respect as a point guard on the national level, AJ Hardeman is an excellent offensive rebounder -- and have won a lot of games against quality competition, beating the likes of Cal, Texas A&M, and BYU (twice). Hobson is the biggest reason why.


Player to Watch (9 and lower): Noah Dahlman, Wofford, and Anthony Johnson, Montana

Wofford is a good basketball team. They beat Georgia on the road and South Carolina at home. They lost to Pitt by three on the road. They lost by twelve at Michigan State. They can defend and rebound the ball. Offensively is where they struggle, which is not a good thing against a like Wisconsin. Noah Dahlman, a 6'6" forward that averages almost 17 ppg, is really the only guy on this team that can score. Dahlman, whose brother Isiah plays for Michigan State, does most of his damage in and around the rim. Wofford will need a big game out of him is they are to pull of an upset.

If you don't know the story of Anthony Johnson, you are missing out. The long and short of it -- Johnson was going nowhere. His girlfriend had a scholarship to a JuCo, and made it a requirement Johnson went as well. He tore it up for two years, and got a scholarship offer to Montana, where he made the same demand about his now-wife. And now? Johnson has turned into one of the best pound-for-pound scorers in the country, averaging almost 20 ppg as a slasher for the Grizzlies. And if you haven't seen or heard about his performance in the Big West final, when he scored 34 second half points -- including the final 21 -- to lead Montana to a 20 point comeback, then you missed out.


Best Matchup -- 1st Round: #7 Clemson vs. #10 Missouri

You like action? You like fast paced basketball? You like dunks, threes, and a helter skelter style? Than this is the game for you. Both Missouri and Clemson have athletes up and down their roster, and utilize that athleticism by pressing for 40 minutes. This will probably be one of the tougher games for me to pick, and may be the one I am looking forward too the most in the first round.


Best Potential Matchup: #4 Wisconsin vs. #5 Temple

The opposite of Clemson-Mizzou, this game would be for basketball purists. Both teams are very good defensively. Both teams are well-coached and execute offensively. Temple has a pair of good guards and a talented big man. Ditto for Wisconsin. If you like well-played basketball, you will love Temple-Wisconsin.


Upset Alert!!!: Cornell, Washington, Marquette

Cornell has received enough exposure this season that they will be one of the most popular upset picks in this year's tournament. Hell, Jay Bilas had the Big Red in the Elite 8! I don't know if I agree with that, but I do think this Cornell team could make run to the Sweet 16. We've talking about Washington being an upset possibility, but what about the team they play in the first round? I've said before -- I think Marquette is a Sweet 16 team. If they make it that far and play West Virginia, keep in mind that they had West Virginia beaten in Morgantown until Da'Sean Butler his an 18 foot turnaround for the win.


Anything Else?:

• While it may be true on a national level as well, this bracket doesn't seem to have one person with near the size of DeMarcus Cousins if Kentucky can get past their second round matchup. Look at seeds 2-7. Who is going to be able to slow down Cousins?


• It seems like it happens every year. Two of the under-the-radar teams that I think can make a run end up playing each other in the first round. This year, it is Marquette and New Mexico. Whoever wins that game is going to give WVU (assuming chalk holds) a problem in the Sweet 16.


• Is there a more disappointing matchup than Texas-Wake Forest? Talk about collapses.

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2010 NCAA Tournament Bracket Breakdown: Midwest Region

Kansas received the No. 1 overall seed in the tournament, and the Jayhawks got a raw deal. The four seed in their region is the tenth in the country according to Kenpom and won a share of the ACC title. The two seed is fourth in the Kenpom ratings and won a share of the Big Ten regular season title as well as the Big Ten tournament. The three seed beat Duke, Villanova, and Syracuse this year and is playing their best basketball of the season.

That said, Kansas is the best team in the country, and regardless of who ended up in their bracket, they are going to have to beat quality teams to win a title.

So with that in mind, here is your Midwest bracket breakdown:



Final Four Favorite: Kansas Jayhawks

How could it be anyone else? The Jayhawks are the best team in the country and the only person that would dispute that is Kenpom himself. The most dangerous aspect of this Kansas team is that they are as balanced as any team in the country, but they start very good, if not great, players at every position. When guys like Tyshawn Taylor and Marcus Morris are the fourth and fifth options in your starting line up, you know you have a team that is scary good. The Jayhawks execute offensively, are outstanding defensively, have role players that are capable of starting while understanding the job they have to do on this team, and they have championship pedigree with Sherron Collins and Cole Aldrich.


And if they lose?: Ohio State Buckeyes

With apologies to Georgetown, Ohio State is the second best team in this bracket. What the Buckeyes lack in depth, they make up for in Evan Turner. Turner is flat out the best player in the country. Not because he can go for 30 points, 10 boards, and 10 assists on any given night from the point guard spot, but because he can do that while making each player on the floor better. Jon Diebler and William Buford get so many more open looks when Turner is handling the ball. Dallas Lauderdale is not an offensive threat by any stretch, but he is good for three or four buckets a game when Turner is creating.


Sweet 16 Sleeper (10 or lower): San Diego State Aztecs

The Aztecs may actually have the best front line in this entire bracket (although Georgia Tech is really good up front as well). With Kawhi Leonard -- a name you should familiarize yourself with -- Malcolm Thomas, Billy White, and Brian Carlwell, the Aztecs are long, strong, and athletic. They get to the glass and can finish around the rim. When their back court is making plays and hitting threes, SDSU is a dangerous team.


Final Four Sleeper (5 or lower): Tennessee Volunteers

The Vols are not a team you can trust either way. Their offense is hideous to watch at times. But they have a lot of length and athleticism defensively, allowing them to force turnovers. They have a good big man in Wayne Chism and Scotty Hopson is on his way to becoming a star. They x-factor for this team is Bobby Maze at the point. He has the ability to be one of the best guards at this level, but is maddeningly inconsistent. The Vols will have a tough road ahead, with Georgetown, Ohio State, and Kansas as potential opponents, but wins over Kansas and Kentucky have proven that when this team comes to play, they can beat anyone in the country.


Seeded too high: Michigan State Spartans

Maybe not based on resume alone, but is this Spartans team really all that good? They beat a Gonzaga team by four that got embarrassed by Duke at the Garden. They beat Wisconsin early in the season as well. But they won a share of the Big Ten by beating 11 teams at the bottom of the league. Their win over Purdue came when Purdue was missing Robbie Hummel. Their losses to UNC, Florida, and Texas look much worse than they did early in the season. And later in the season, they simply did not look like a team that anyone should be afraid of. That said, the Spartans are talented, and it is difficult to bet against Tom Izzo in the tournament, but I would feel uncomfortable having Sparty in the Sweet 16, or further.


Seeded too low: Georgetown Hoyas

Again, based on resume alone, the Hoyas probably don't have much of an argument with a three seed. Their 10-8 Big East record is not all that impressive. But if the decision came down to the Hoyas and Villanova for a two seed out of the Big East, the Hoyas have as big of a gripe of anyone in the Midwest. If they switched spots with Villanova, the Hoyas would likely be the favorite to win the South region, seeing as they have a win over Duke already.


Player to Watch (8 and up): Greg Monroe, Georgetown

Outside of Evan Turner, there may not be a player more instrumental to what their team wants to do than Monroe. His ability as a passer and a threat away from the basket is what allows the Hoya's Princeton-style offense to work. He's the best all around big man in the country, and played his best basketball of the season in the Big East yournament. Greivis Vasquez of Maryland and James Anderson of Oklahoma State also deserve mention here. Vasquez's role for the Terps is similar to what Turner does for Ohio State. Anderson is as dangerous as any scorer you will find in this tournament. If you let him get hot, Anderson can go for 25 points in a half and no one would be surprised.


Player to Watch (9 and lower): Aubrey Coleman, Houston

With apologies to Derrick Favors of Georgia Tech and SDSU's Leonard, Coleman is the guy to watch here. Coleman is the best scorer in the country, literally -- he led the nation with almost 26 ppg. Coleman is a bit on an undersized guard. He's not all that explosive, and while he is a much improved shooter this season, Coleman is at his best when he puts the ball on the floor. He's crafty, understands how to create space, and is very good in the mid-range. His 30 point nights are equivalent to anyone else in the country going for 20.


Best Matchup -- 1st Round: #6 Tennessee vs. #11 San Diego State

When the brackets were released, these were two of the first round games that intrigued me the most. SDSU is long and athletic enough to play with Tennessee. The Vols don't rebound the ball all that well, but they can force turnovers, an aspect of the game that the Aztecs have struggled in. Both of these teams play very hard and both have knocked off some very good teams.


Best Potential Matchup: #2 Ohio State vs. #3 Georgetown Hoyas

Maybe it is just me, but I would love to see this game. It is a matchup of two very different systems. For Ohio State, its give the ball to Evan Turner and let him do what he does. Georgetown is much different. Rarely will you see Georgetown run a play specifically designed for a player. Its all about the Princeton offense for the Hoyas. Two very good teams playing their best basketball of the season. Who doesn't want to see that?


Upset Alert!!!: SDSU, Georgia Tech, and Northern Iowa

As we mentioned, San Diego State matches up very well with Tennessee so long as their guards can protect the ball on the offensive end of the floor. I also like Georgia Tech's chances against both Oklahoma State and Ohio State. The Yellow Jackets have some size and athleticism on their perimeter -- specifically DeAndre Bell, who is a very good defender -- to throw are James Anderson and Evan Turner. The Bumblebees also have a very big, very athletic front line, something that cannot be said for either Oklahoma State or Ohio State. As far as Northern Iowa is concerned, I think they can give Kansas some trouble. The Panthers are a deliberate, experienced team. They are well coached and they have size inside. They are the kind of team that will give any opponent trouble.


Anything Else?:

• You better believe that NBA scouts are going to descend upon Spokane. Greivis Vasquez and Aubrey Coleman are two prospects that are on the NBA radar, and while both have been fantastic at this level, their potential as pros has been called into question. Seeing as both are seniors, this may be the last chance that the NBA people get to see these guys play in a team setting.
  


• For those that care about tempo-free stats, there are eight players in the top 31 of possessions used nationally. Five of them -- Coleman, Vasquez, Anderson, Turner, and Jordan Eglseder of Northern Iowa -- reside in the Midwest.


• The Midwest is by far the most likely of the four regions to see the top five seeds advance.
  

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