Thursday, July 7, 2011

Is Utah State's 2-for-1 deal with Mississippi State a result of the WAC's collapse?

When the topic of prominent programs outside of the BCS conferences comes up, the conversation usually involves Butler, Gonzaga, Xavier, Memphis, and/or BYU.

One name that never pops up?

Utah State.

The Aggies probably deserve more credit than they get nationally. In the past 12 seasons, the Aggies have gone to eight NCAA Tournaments and four NIT's, they've won seven conference regular season titles and finished second in three other seasons, and they've won six conference tournament titles. The Aggies have not won fewer than 23 games during that stretch, notching an overall record of 309-90 (.774 win percentage). More impressive, however, is their 193-13 mark at home during Morrill's tenure.


If we're talking regular season dominance, there aren't many programs that can match the Aggies. The problem? They are completely devoid of postseason success on a national scale. Of the eight NCAA Tournaments and four NIT's that Utah State has been to the past 12 years, only once have the Aggies advanced out of the first round. That was in the 2001 NCAA Tournament, when 12th-seeded Utah State knocked off Ohio State in the opening round before losing to UCLA.

Its not necessarily unexpected, however. Despite their success from November to February, the Aggies have only once been seeded higher than 12th in their eight tournament trips, and that was in 2009 when they earned an 11 seed.

The issue is in their scheduling. That home court dominance -- which is fueled by one of, if not the best student section in college basketball -- makes high-major teams that rarely travel to play mid-majors terrified of playing in Logan. And Morrill has been steadfast in his proclamations of traveling to play a non-conference game only if the Aggies get a home game in return.

Its possible, however, that Morrill may be changing his stance on non-conference games.

First, he took his team to DC to take on Georgetown back in December with no promise of a return game. And now, according to Tony Jones of the Salt Lake Tribune, Morrill has signed on for a 2-for-1 with Mississippi State. The Aggies will travel to Starkville to play this coming season, followed by a year off before the Bulldogs return the favor by playing in The Spectrum.

Its an interesting move for Morrill to make. For starters, it gives the Aggies a much tougher non-conference schedule than they have had in recent years. In addition to the game at Mississippi State, USU plays BYU at home, Wichita State on the road, likely road dates against Long Beach State and Weber State, and a potential matchup against Kent State in the final of the Gossner Tournament hosted in Logan. This will also be a much younger Utah State team than we are used to seeing. They graduated six of the seven players from last season's rotation.

If Morrill is fed up with losing in the first round of the NCAA Tournament, then scheduling games like this is the way to try and ensure a higher seed. Its also a risk. Winning road games will increase a team's RPI and earn a higher seed, but winning on the road isn't easy. Losing those games would hurt the Aggies more than winning against a lesser opponent at home.

Its more likely that Morrill is hedging his bet. USU plays in the WAC, a league that has gotten the worst of conference realignment. Boise State is heading to the Mountain West for the 2011-2012 season while Fresno State and Nevada will be gone by 2012-2013. In their place, the WAC has added Denver, Texas-San Antonio, Seattle, and Texas State. Boise State, Fresno State, and Nevada aren't exactly competing for Final Fours, but they are significantly better than the four newcomers to the league.

Utah State has earned two at-large bids to the NCAA Tournament in recent years, but that didn't come without dominating their league during the regular season, blowing away a weak non-conference schedule, and a stress-filled Selection Sunday.

If Morrill wants to continue to put his program in a position to get into the NCAA Tournament without winning the automatic bid, he's going to have to start taking some bigger risks in non-conference play.

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