Wednesday, April 20, 2011

Looking at whether Kentucky's three early entrants should stay or go

We finally know the fate of the four Kentucky Wildcats that were pondering declaring for the NBA Draft.

Doron Lamb announced yesterday that he will be returning to college, which is probably the correct decision for him. Lamb may one day be a first round pick, but he certainly isn't this year, even with the weakened draft class.

Lamb was alone in deciding to return to school, however. On Wednesday morning, Brandon Knight, Terrence Jones, and DeAndre Liggins all entered their names into the NBA Draft. None of them signed with an agent, however, which leaves open the opportunity to withdraw from the draft prior to the May 8th deadline.

The question, however, is whether it is worth it for them to come back.


For Brandon Knight, the answer is simple -- no. Emphatically no. Knight had a terrific freshman season, averaging more than 17 ppg and over 4 apg. He only got better down the stretch of the season, and even knocked down a couple of game-winners in the NCAA Tournament. Knight is a lock to go in the top ten and may even be able to sneak into the top five, as he is neck-and-neck with Kemba Walker as the second best point guard prospect in this draft.

Its tough to turn down being a single digit pick in the NBA Draft, and that choice gets even tougher when there is a chance of playing out of position by returning to school. Kentucky brings in another star point guard in the class of 2011 -- Marquis Teague, the younger brother of former Wake Forest star Jeff -- who many expect to take over the point guard reins. That would push Knight off the ball, as he is a better shooter and scorer than Teague, should he decide to return.

Liggins is an interesting case. He only averaged 8.6 ppg and 4.0 rpg this season, but his scoring and rebounding numbers are not what got NBA scouts interested in his ability. At 6'6" with terrific length and quickness, Liggins has the makings of being a lockdown defender in the NBA. He has the size and the wingspan to defender the two and the lateral quickness to defend a point guard if he has to. Throw in the fact that he knocked down threes at a near-40% clip this season, and in a weak draft there is a chance that Liggins can be scooped up late in the first round by a team looking to fill a hole.

Liggins is not going to add much to his stock if he decides to return. While he showed an improved ability to create off the dribble this year, no one is going to draft him for his offensive ability -- and that's assuming that he would have an opportunity next season to showcase that ability should he improve. This year is probably Liggins best shot at getting drafted high, but is that a risk he's willing to take knowing he'd play an important role on a title-contending team?

Jones, believe it or not, probably has the most to gain by returning to school. After a sensational start to the season, Jones really tailed off late in the year. He seemed to lose his confidence a bit and the amount of heat that he would take for John Calipari looked like it started to wear on him. That hurt his draft stock, as there is a chance that he could fall out of the lottery.

The other issue with Jones is that his weaknesses are no secret. He's left-handed with absolutely no right hand and he has a tendency to over-dribble -- there is a reason that Coach Cal would get on him about being selfish and a ball-hog. With a year of improvement, Jones has the skill set and the tools to be a top five-to-ten pick, even in next year's loaded draft.

Kentucky is going to be the preseason No. 2 team -- behind North Carolina -- if all three stay in the draft.

Anyone that pulls their name out will be icing on the proverbial cake.

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