Friday, April 1, 2011

Final Four Preview: No. 8 Butler vs. No. 11 VCU

This is the matchup that fans of mid-major basketball have been dreaming of.

The fourth place team from the Colonial and a 13-5 tri-champion from the Horizon square off for the right to head to the title game. The only problem? Who do you root for? Butler, who almost seems like the bad guy, coming off of last year's title game? Or do you root for plucky upstart VCU, the team with the coach with a funny name and a bunch of guys that bomb away from three?

In all reality, it really doesn't matter who you side with. The bottom line is that for a second straight season we will be having a true mid-major playing for the national title. And that is amazing.


The Details: VCU taking on Butler is the most unlikely matchup in the history of the Final Four.

I don't think that can be denied. A No. 11 seed and a No. 8 seed meeting up for the right to play for a national title? That is unprecedented.

But unprecedented and undeserving are two completely different things. You may have qualms with the fact that VCU or Butler got into the NCAA Tournament, but you cannot argue the fact that both teams absolutely earned their way to the Final Four. Butler beat three of the top four teams in their region. VCU only took out two of the top three seeds, but they also had to win a play-in game for the right to make it this far.

Both of these are quality basketball teams. Both of them are playing their best basketball of the season right now. That is a dangerous combination.

What will be interesting here is Butler and VCU play very different styles. The Bulldogs are almost a station to station team. They don't get out in transition all that much. They don't try to push the pace. They would much rather play one possession at a time, getting a stop at one and patiently executing their offense at the other.

VCU? They play at a much more kinetic pace. The Rams aren't exactly an up-and-down team like, say, a North Carolina, but they do like do pressure in the back court. The goal is to either force a turnover or force their opponent to rush on the offensive end of the floor. If Butler's veteran back court can avoid getting flustered by VCU's press, the Rams are not a very good half court defensive team. Offensively, VCU spreads the floor and likes to shoot the first open three that they get.


Key matchup: Bradford Burgess

For much of this tournament, I've said that Jamie Skeen was the guy that created the matchup problems for VCU. And while that was true for much of the tournament, the same could be same for Matt Howard. Both are big, strong senior forwards that can score in the post, defend, rebound, and knock down a three. That matchup will be one of the things I look forward to watching the most in the first game on Saturday night.

But the key matchup is going to be Bradford Burgess, VCU's 6'6" small forward. Burgess is not a post player. He doesn't have the size or the strength for it. He doesn't have a back to the basket game, either. The majority of his scoring comes as a result of his perimeter jumper -- either he's knocking down a three or using the threat of the three to put the ball on the floor and get by his defender. Burgess is almost like a shooting guard in that regard, but since he stands 6'6", Shaka Smart slides him over to the four quite a bit. In fact, playing Burgess at the four is VCU's best lineup. He makes their offense that much more dangerous, especially when paired with Skeen, and he plays the top of their 1-2-1-1 press.

Who on Butler guards him? If the Bulldogs go big, its going to have to be Howard, who would get toasted defensively on the perimeter. If that's the case, Howard (or Andrew Smith) would also have an advantage of their own in the paint. Khyle Marshall, an athletic 6'7" freshman, might be a better option, but it eliminates the mismatch Butler would receive.


Key stat: Butler's turnovers

While VCU has played some terrific basketball on the defensive end of the floor over the last two weeks, they are not a great defensive team. They struggle in the half court, in large part because they are not a very good defensive rebounding team.


Where VCU is effective, however, is in their press. They run a 1-2-1-1 press, which is very aggressive. They try and trap the first pass in bounds, looking to force turnovers and to get their opponent to play out of control. It worked against Kansas, as the Rams were able to build their lead by forcing the Jayhawks out of their rhythm. VCU doesn't force a ton of turnovers, but they are very good at creating steals, live ball turnovers that lead to easy basket.

Butler, however, has an experienced back court. They are one of the best teams in the country at not turning the ball over. If VCU;s pressure is effective, they have a great chance at winning this game.


X-factor: The wings

The stars for these two teams are at the point and in the post. Joey Rodriguez and Shelvin Mack are the two guys that makes their teams hum. Matt Howard and Jamie Skeen are the bread winners of the club. You pretty much know what you are going to get out of those guys.

What you don't know is which Brandon Rozzell is going to show up. He's one of the streakiest shooters in the country, which means that I would not be surprised to see him go for 25 points or fro three points on 1-9 shooting. Rozzell's Butler counterpart? Zack Hahn and Chase Stigall. Both of those kids have the ability to knock down a couple of threes in a row. Darius Theus and Rob Brandenburg of VCU are two youngsters that have made some big plays and had some big games for VCU as well this year.

Perhaps the x-factor, then, will be Ronald Nored and Shawn Vanzant of Butler. Nored is known as one of the best defenders in the country, and Vanzant is not that far behind. How well the fair against Rozzell and company will be an important factor.


And the winner is?: Butler

I'm taking Butler's experience. This is a team that just knows how to win. And with all due respect to VCU, the Rams have played out of their minds for the past five games. At some point, that run has to come to an end.

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