2011 NCAA Tournament: Sweet 16 Southwest Region Preview

Kansas had a path to the Final Four opened up and laid in front of them.

With Richmond, VCU, and Florida State the three other teams left in the Southwest, Kansas won't be playing another team seeded higher than 10th. With that kind of draw, it will be a disappointment if the Jayhawks don't make it back to the Final Four.

That said, it won't necessarily be a cakewalk for the Jayhawks. Kansas will face a team with two of the five best players left in the region in the Sweet 16 -- Kevin Anderson and Justin Harper of Richmond. VCU has been playing as well as any team in the tournament, with a press that is forcing turnovers and an offense that is hitting threes. And Florida State, with or without Chris Singleton, is a very good defensive team with the kind of size that can give Kansas trouble.

Kansas still has to show up to play to win. But if they do, if the Jayhawks play well, they will advance to the Final Four.

Best Storylines:

• The most obvious storyline is the comparison of VCU and George Mason. Both are members of the CAA. Both were 11 seeds that were controversial at-large bids. Both rolled over some impressive programs en route to the Sweet 16. And, should VCU knock off Florida State in the Sweet 16, both will have faced arguably the most talented team in the country for the right to go to the Final Four.
  


• We've already seen a handful of columns on it, but Richmond and VCU, schools that reside in Richmond, VA, are playing in the Sweet 16. If they win, it will be an all-Richmond Elite 8.
  


• If that wasn't enough, Richmond head coach Chris Mooney and VCU head coach Shaka Smart are arguably the two hottest names in the coaching carousel. With high-major jobs like Georgia Tech, NC State, Oklahoma, and Missouri open, it shouldn't be a surprise to see both coaches at a bigger job next season.
  


• Leonard Hamilton has a chance to really make a name for himself. Right now, his claim to fame is more his appearance -- he looks just like Bunny Colvin from the wire -- than his coaching acumen -- this is his 23rd season as a head coach, his sixth NCAA Tournament, and just his second Sweet 16. A win against VCU, and Hamilton is coaching for the right to go to the Final Four.
  

What they need to do to win:

• No. 1 Kansas: Take advantage of the Morris twins. When Kansas is at their best, the Jayhawks are running their offense through Marcus and Markieff. They are posting them up, they are using them in ball screens, and they are getting them involved in high-low action.
  


• No. 10 Florida State: Score. It sounds so simplistic, but scoring has been anything but for Florida State this season. The Seminoles are known for their defense. They are big and physical and make it very difficult to run sets and get good looks at the rim. The issue for Florida State arise offensively. They don't have a lot of players capable of scoring the ball. That will helped if Chris Singleton is healthy for this weekend. If not, they may need a couple more performances like the one against Notre Dame, when this team shot 9-19 from three.
  


• No. 11 VCU: The Rams are one of the most fun teams to watch in the Sweet 16. They press, they run a spread offense, and they take a lot of threes. When they are at their best, Shaka Smart's team is forcing turnovers defensively and moving the ball offensively. Having patience and quality shot selection without losing their offensive aggressiveness is what is going to make the difference for this team.
  


• No. 12 Richmond: Like I said earlier, the Spiders have two of the five best players left in the region in Kevin Anderson and Justin Harper. And both are capable of scoring 20-25 points on any given night. Richmond's issue, however, is going to be what the Spiders get out of the rest of their roster. Will Dan Geriot be able to score or defend against the versatile Morrii? Can Darrious Garrett still be a playmaker against opponents bigger than him? That is what will make the difference in these games.
  

Players to watch:

• The Morrii: I've gone back and force over who the player to watch for the Jayhawks is, and while I didn't want to harp on the Morrii again, it is impossible not too. They are what makes Kansas go offensively. Their versatility is so difficult to match up with if you are an opponent. The twins can shoot the three, they can put the ball on the floor and hit a floater, they can score in the post, they can catch a tip dunk. The rest of the Kansas roster can be mixed-and-matched. But Markieff and Marcus will be the catalysts.
  


• Chris Singleton, Florida State: Singleton was arguably the most important player on the Florida State roster coming into the season. He can legitimately defend any position on the floor and he's a capable offensive player. But Singleton is coming off of a broken foot, having seen his first game action in over a month in Florida State's first two tournament games. He played 26 combined minutes, finishing with just five points and seven fouls. If he is playing well, the Seminoles are a different basketball team. And they are now in the Sweet 16 playing, essentially, without him
  


• Jamie Skeen, VCU: The biggest reason that Shaka Smart is able to play the system that he wants to is Skeen. The Wake Forest transfer is one of the best power forwards in the country. He can score on the block, he rebounds the ball, and he can step out and hit a three if he has to. His presence in the paint offensively forces teams to keep honest when defending the three. If you allow him to go one-on-one, he's going to score or draw a foul.
  


• Justin Harper, Richmond: If you have never seen Harper play, well, frankly I am not surprised. The 6'10" Harper is a certified NBA talent. He's 6'10" with handle, athleticism, and a lights-out three point stroke. He's been a matchup problem all season long, and nothing is going to change against Kansas even if he is being guarded by one of the Morris twins. It will be a great chance for NBA scouts to see him go up against another NBA caliber player.

Friday Games:

7:27 pm, San Antonio, TBS: No. 1 Kansas vs. No. 12 Richmond

Key Matchup: Dan Geriot vs. the Morrii

As we mentioned earlier, Justin Harper is an NBA prospect and talented enough to match up with one of the Morrii. The question is whether or not Geriot will. The 6'9", 235 lb big man never was particularly quick or explosive, and losing a season to a knee injury didn't help that. It will be important for Geriot to be able to stay on the floor. Darrius Garrett is a better defender and rebounder, but its Geriot's ability, as the Spider's center, to knock down shots from the perimeter that helps to keep the floor spread. Richmond runs a hybrid-Princeton offense, so spacing is critical.

Key Stat: Rebounding

Richmond ranks 288th in the country in offensive rebounding percentage and 205th in defensive rebounding percentage. Kansas isn't an elite rebounding team -- they are 40th in the country on the offensive glass, getting 36.2% of their misses -- but they are an elite basketball team. Richmond isn't. The Spiders cannot afford to allow Kansas multiple chances on the offensive end of the floor. The Jayhawks are just too good. Getting a few easy buckets on putbacks wouldn't hurt the cause, either.

BIAH Prediction: Kansas Jayhawks

Like any self-respecting, non-partisan fan, I'll be pulling for the upset. I just don't think it is going to happen.


9:57 pm, San Antonio, TBS:

Key Matchup: Jamie Skeen vs. the Florida State front line

Skeen is the most valuable player on the VCU roster. Its not necessarily because he is the most talented -- although he may very well be -- its because he is the only player at Shaka Smart's disposal that is capable of scoring with his back to the basket. Having that presence on the interior is important for VCU because it provides an offense that depends very heavily on the three point shot with some balance. The Seminoles have a number of players that they can rotate through on their front line, but they are all big and strong and athletic. How Skeen handles that will be vital for the Rams hopes of advancing.

Key Stat: Florida State's turnovers

VCU isn't a great defensive team, 110th in the nation in efficiency. They aren't a great rebounding team, either, sitting at 308th in defensive rebounding percentage. Florida State is the best defensive team in the country. That said, the Rams like to press and they are pretty good at forcing turnovers. Florida State, who lacks a point guard, turns the ball over on 23% of their possessions. Only 33 teams nation wide turned the ball over more often that the Seminoles this season. If VCU wants to win, they need to exploit that.

BIAH Prediction: Florida State Seminoles

In all honesty, this is a coin flip. Both teams played arguably their best game of the season the last time out. The difference? The 'Noles did it with a (very) limited Chris Singleton. Singleton, if he is healthy, will be able to help slow down guys like Brad Burgess and Brandon Rozzell, who have both carried VCU for stretches during the postseason.


So who advances?: Kansas Jayhawks

I'll just repeat what I said earlier: "Like any self-respecting, non-partisan fan, I'll be pulling for the upset. I just don't think it is going to happen."