Monday, December 27, 2010

The Emery Board: Week 7

College basketball has not seen a team go undefeated since Bobby Knight's Indiana Hoosiers went 32-0 in 1975-1976. The closest we have seen since then was a Jameer Nelson-led St. Joseph's team that went 27-0 in the 2003-2004 season before losing to Xavier in the Atlantic-10 tournament. Every season a team flirts with the notion of an undefeated season, but every season that notion slowly fades as January turns to February and February turns to March. BYU's senior guard Jackson Emery, has made the bold prediction that his team, a Cougar squad that finished with a 27-4 record last season, will in fact go undefeated this season.

We have decided that, in honor of Emery's swagger, we will keep a watch on the BYU Cougar's schedule, see if they can walk-the-walk. We will also keep tabs on any other undefeated teams who try to make a run at the perfect season.


Week 7:

BYU may not be competing for an undefeated year anymore, but they still have a full season of basketball to play.

The Cougars moved to 12-1 on the season with a couple of solid wins this week. They opened it up with a 72-66 win over Weber State on Tuesday. The close score is unimpressive, especially considering that the Wildcats are without their star guard Damian Lillard, who broke a bone in his foot.

BYU was up by double figures for much of the game, led by 28 points from Jimmer Fredette. But Weber State's aggressive defense eventually wore down the Cougars. They shot just 37.3% from the floor and 26.9% from three, numbers that drop to 32.6% and 15.4%, respectively, once Fredette's numbers are factored out. The Wildcats made a comeback, but never got within one possession.


On Thursday, it seemed as if BYU was going to get a tougher test, but the UTEP Miners learned the hard way the dangers of ... The Emery Board. Jackson had 23 points and hit six threes, despite the fact that he has been coming off the bench as he deals with a shin injury, as BYU cruised to an 89-68 win despite falling behind 9-0 early on.

Next Game: 12/30 @ Buffalo

Next Potential Loss: 1/5 @ UNLV


BYU might have ruined my plans for an epic "Ankiel Watch" level of prediction, but there are still nine teams left that have a shot at the undefeated season. So we might as well use this space to document their chances.


Other Undefeated Teams

No. 1 Duke: 11-0
Next Game: 12/29 @ UNC-Greensboro
Next Potential Loss: 1/2 vs. Miami

Duke won't go undefeated this year. Sorry it just won't happen. That was a sexy statement to make following the Michigan State game, but without Kyrie Irving, you can forget about 32-0. But I give Duke the best chance to be the last team in the country to get a tally in the loss column. The ACC isn't great, but teams come ready to play every night when they have Duke sitting in the visiting locker room. Circle the Dukie's first conference road game (1/12 @ Florida State) as a possible end-date for that unblemished record. If they can get past that game, it could be February before Duke loses a game. This week, they head to winless UNC-Greensboro before hosting Miami.


No. 2 Ohio State: 12-0
Next Game: 12/27 vs. UT-Martin
Next Potential Loss: 1/9 vs. Minnesota

The Buckeyes very well be the best team in America. Jared Sullinger isn't only playing like the best freshman in the country, he's playing like the best big man in the country and a potential national player of the year candidate. Their perimeter players are all capable of going off for 25 points on a given night. They have a solid freshman point guard and a big shot blocker in the paint. The thing that is so impressive about this Ohio State team is that everyone understands their role on the team and completely buys into it. It might be until February, when the Buckeyes take trips to Wisconsin and Purdue in the span of a week, before they actually lose a game.


No. 3 Kansas: 9-0
Next Game: 12/29 vs. UT-Arlington
Next Potential Loss: 1/22 vs. Texas

Kansas looks better and better as the season goes on, and with the Big XII looking weaker, especially at the top (Baylor and Kansas State have both struggled, and they were picked to be top three in the league), the Jayhawks's chances of running the table get better. Will it happen? Well, not likely, but with only one game each against Baylor, Texas, and Texas A&M, Kansas has the schedule to make it a possibility.


No. 4 Connecticut: 10-0
Next Game:
12/27 at Pittsburgh
Next Potential Loss: 12/27 at Pittsburgh

Well, we find out who the Huskies are tonight. They head to the Peterson Events Center to take on the Panthers, who many believe to be the best team in the Big East despite what rankings and records may say. To get an idea how overrated UConn appears to be, Pitt started the day as 7.5 point favorites in Vegas. I'm going to hold off comment on the Huskies until after tonight's game.


No. 5 Syracuse: 10-0
Next Game:
12/28 vs. Providence
Next Potential Loss: 12/28 vs. Providence

Like UConn, Syracuse is kicking off Big East play this week. It starts with the Friars, and continues with a New Year's Day matchup with Notre Dame. I'm not sure this team has the chops -- or the perimeter shooting -- to make it past Pitt and Villanova later in the month, but with Kris Joseph starting to round into form and Fab Melo looking healthier, the Orange defense and interior play may be good enough that perimeter shooting is rendered mute.


No. 7 San Diego State: 14-0
Next Game: 12/31 vs. Occidental
Next Potential Loss: 1/12 vs. UNLV

I love this San Diego State team, but if I'm being totally honest, I'm shocked they are still undefeated at this point in the season. Its not because I don't think they are good enough -- this is the best team on the West Coast without question -- its because they continually play down to their opponents. A six point win over Cal Poly. A six point win against San Francisco. A two point win over IUPUI. Granted, there were extenuating circumstances -- the flu has swept through the team, while the latter two games were played in a rodeo arena under less than ideal circumstances. Regardless, SDSU needs to start playing up to their potential, or eventually they are going to slip up.


Central Florida: 11-0
Next Game: 12/29 vs. Furman
Next Potential Loss: 1/15 @ Southern Miss

UCF just keeps getting better and better. This week, it was a five point win at UMass, which doesn't appear all that impressive on the surface. But consider this -- they played the first 25 minutes without Marcus Jordan, who had two bad ankles, but who convinced the coaching staff to allow him to play the last 15 minutes of the game. Impressive stuff. UCF will battle with Memphis and Southern Miss for the C-USA title this season.


Cincinnati: 8-0
Next Game: 12/28 vs. DePaul
Next Potential Loss: 1/6 vs. Xavier

Still waiting for Cincinnati to come up with an impressive win. The 68-34 shellacking of Dayton needs to be taken in context -- the Flyers were in the midst of a terrible string of basketball -- and my team in college might have beaten this year's Oklahoma team. That said, there is much to like about this team. Dion Dixon, Cashmere Wright, and Sean Kilpatrick are all playing above expectations, while Yancy Gates anchors a big, athletic front line. I'm still going to withhold judgement on this team until they actually play someone, but consider me in the process of being swayed.


Drop-Outs

Northwestern: 5-0
First Loss: 85-69 @ St. John's

Northwestern ran into a buzz saw in Madison Square Garden last week. The Johnnies shot 80% in the second half and ran away with the win. The loss was very costly for Northwestern's tournament hopes, as the Wildcats are now hanging their non-conference schedule on a win over Georgia Tech in the ACC/Big Ten Challenge. To make matters worse, they start of the Big Ten season at Purdue, at home for Michigan State, and at Illinois. We could find out really soon whether or not this Northwestern team is for real.


The Bottom of the Barrel:

It would be rude of us to include the "have's" and but not the "have-not's". After all, planetary balance is very essential. For every team that hasn't lost a game, there has to be a team still fighting for their first win.


Alcorn State: 0-9
Next Game: 12/28 at Ole Miss (9-3)
First Potential Win: 1/4 vs. Prairie View A&M (2-10)

Arkansas-Pine Bluff: 0-11
Next Game: 12/29 at Akron (7-5)
First Potential Win: 12/29 at Akron (7-5)

Centenary: 0-13
Next Game: 12/28 vs. Oakland (7-8)
First Potential Win: 1/15 vs. Southern Utah (3-8)

Colgate: 0-10
Next Game: 12/29 at Stony Brook (4-6)
First Potential Win: 1/2 at Longwood (4-11)

Maryland-Baltimore County: 0-12
Next Game:
12/30 vs. Niagara (3-9)
First Potential Win: 12/30 vs. Niagara (3-9)

UNC Greensboro: 0-11
Next Game: 12/29 vs. Duke (11-0)
First Potential Win: 1/10 vs. Elon (5-7)

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