Thursday, June 3, 2010

NBA Draft Prospects: Wesley Johnson, Syracuse

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Stats: 16.5 ppg, 8.5 rpg, 2.2 apg, 1.7 spg, 1.8 bpg, 41.5% 3PT

Listed Size: 6'7", 195 lb, 22 years old


About Him: When talking about Wes Johnson, the first thing that is always going to come up is his athletic profile and physical tools. Simply put, the guy is a freak. Standing over 6'7" in shoes, Johnson has the mobility of someone six inches shorter. He is not only blessed with a 37" max vertical, but with outstanding body control and coordination in the air. Combine all that with his 7'1" wingspan, and Johnson becomes a threat is so many different aspects of the game.

Johnson as fast as anyone in the draft (his 3/4 sprint time was tied for second with Avery Bradley and John Wall), and proved with the Orange this year that he can really get out and run the floor. He is a terrific finisher in transition, putting down countless alley-oops on the break. He created a lot of those opportunities himself, as he used his length and athleticism to average nearly two steals and two blocks per game. (When talking about Johnson's numbers, keep in mind that for about a month midway through Big East play, when Syracuse had a firm lead in the league standings, that Johnson battled through leg and hand injuries that limited his production.)

While it is at times difficult to judge Johnson as a one-on-one defender at the next level -- Syracuse playing a zone and all -- everything previously mentioned in this write-up should lead one to believe he'll be able to hold his own.

The biggest problem with Johnson as a prospect is that he doesn't project as a superstar or as a go-to player. It's not a secret that Syracuse's flaw last season was that they lacked a closer, a Kobe that they could give the ball to when they needed a bucket. As good as Johnson is, his biggest problem is that he is not great at creating his own shot. He's not a terribly good ball handler and he doesn't exactly change direction well. When he was able to put the ball on the floor and create, it was because he had a quick enough first step to beat his man.

That's not to say Johnson isn't capable in the half court. He's an excellent three-point shooter, and while he only took just over three a game, he showed off some range, some ability to catch-and-shoot on the move, and a pretty decent mid range game. He is also a good offensive rebounder, works well moving without the ball, and will be able to dunk on people in the league as well.

Perhaps the thing I like the most about Johnson is that he seems to understand his limitations. He shot over 50% from the field and he didn't turn the ball over all that much, just over two per game. While some of that is likely a result of the balance on the Syracuse roster, Johnson never seemed to force the issue at Syracuse.

Comparison:

  • Best Case Scenario: The Shawn Marion comparison is obvious and pretty accurate (although I think Johnson is actually more skilled than Marion), but I did see one site that likened him to Alex English. Gerald Wallace with a better jump shot is another comparison I like.
  • Worst Case Scenario: Draft Express says Travis Outlaw, and I guess that works. I also like Nick Batum, albeit a better shooter.
Outlook: I don't think Wes Johnson is ever going to be the feature player on an NBA team. He's not the kind of offensive talent that can be a No. 1 option. That said, there is so much that Johnson can contribute on both ends of the floor. He's as athletic as they come, and is fantastic at using his athleticism and length to make plays, be it a dunk, a steal, a block, a rebound, etc. He's not a complete loss offensively, either, as he can stretch a defense and will, no doubt, improve at creating his own shot. I expect Johnson to be a solid contributor in the NBA for many years, with an outside chance at making a couple all-star teams.

Highlights:








2 comments:

ISRW said...

Shawn Marion: the ugliest shot in basketball outside of Noah? Marion was known as a speed player when drafted, not as a shooting specialist at all, and his defensive versatility isn't something we can project on Johnson except by looking at his measurements and making several assumptions....

I see this comparison, and it doesn't map out for me that well.

Rob Dauster said...

@ISRW: Ugly jumper or not, Marion was able to knock down threes when he was open. Johnson is as well, and while he posted impressive % numbers this year, he took just over three per game, meaning most of his threes were pretty open catch-and-shoots. Far, far, far from a shooting specialist.

And defensively, you are right, we don't know exactly what Johnson will be. But based on his length and athleticism and the numbers he put up this year, there's no reason to believe he can't be a more-than-capable defender in the NBA.

Personally, I don't love comparing prospects to pros, but others do. Will Wes be another Marion? Maybe, but there is just as good of a chance that he develops into a different player in five years. As of today, however, given skill sets and athletic profiles, I think Marion is the best comparison there is.