NBA Draft Prospects: Cole Aldrich, Kansas

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Stats: 11.3 ppg, 9.8 rpg, 3.5 bpg, 56.2% FG

Size:

• Listed: 6'11", 250 lb, 21 yrs old
• Combine: 6'11 1/4" (with shoes), 236 lb, 7'4" 3/4 (wingspan)

About Him: Like Patrick Patterson, Cole Aldrich had a somewhat disappointing junior campaign. After his sophomore season, Aldrich -- who burst onto the national scene with a dominating eight minute stretch against UNC in the 2008 Final Four -- was expected to be picked somewhere in the high lottery. Teaming with Sherron Collins to lead a group of no names to a Big XII regular season title and a trip to the Sweet 16, Aldrich averaged 14.9 ppg, 11.1 rpg, and 2.7 bpg and many expected him to be one of, if not the best center in the country this past season.

But he wasn't. In fact, Aldrich was largely unimpressive as a junior as his numbers dipped to 11.1 ppg and 9.8 rpg, although his blocks were up to 3.5 bpg. He never cracked the 20 point mark as a junior. More than anything, Aldrich serves as a warning for why players declaring for the draft should strike when the iron is hot. In 2009, Aldrich and Collins were all that Kansas had. The Morris twins were overwhelmed freshman, Tyshawn Taylor, Brady Morningstar, and Tyrel Reed were only beginning to embrace their roles, and Xavier Henry was a senior in high school that many believed was headed to Memphis. As a result, everything ran through Collins, which meant that Aldrich got an opportunity to display his ability to catch-and-finish around the rim and show his prowess in the pick-and-roll. He was a sophomore playing his first real minutes as a collegian, so scouts were more willing to overlook some of the weaknesses in his game, assuming that those skills could be developed over time.

The issue isn't necessarily that Aldrich got worse as a basketball player. The emergence of Xavier Henry and Marcus Morris as legitimate scoring threats, and the fact that Aldrich was happy to simply play a role for the Jayhawks, limited the number of touches Aldrich got. And, like Patterson, this may actually be a good thing for Aldrich.

I don't think Aldrich is ever going to be a star big man in the NBA. Even after spending three years in college, he still has a pretty limited back to the basket game. He just seem comfortable in the post. Most of his moves are mechanical, and he has a tough time with even basic moves like a drop step or a jump hook. The best way to put it is that Aldrich just doesn't have a feel for playing with his back to the basket. That could come with more repetitions and hard work, but he has a long way to go. His only reliable option right now is to establish position deep enough where all he has to do is turn and finish.

Where Aldrich is quite effective is finishing when a shot is created for him. He's long and impressively mobile, coordinated, and athletic for someone with his size. He's excellent in the pick-and-roll, has long arms and good hands, and the athleticism and length to finish above the rim. He's caught quite a few alley-oops from Collins and put away a number of putback dunks during his time in Lawrence.

An interesting aspect of Aldrich's game to throw in here is that he is a pretty efficient player. He doesn't turn the ball over much (likely a result of getting most of his touches in a position where he has to shoot) and is very effective around the rim at finishing and drawing a foul. He is an intelligent passer in general, and throws an exceptional outlet pass. In fact, with the exception of a back-to-the-basket game, Aldrich seems to have an excellent feel for how to play the game.

The defensive end is where Aldrich is going to excel. He's a very strong kid, able to hold position in the post and avoid being backed down. He has also developed into a more-than-capable shot blocker. He has long wingspan, good athleticism, and excellent timing, but also manages to stay out of foul trouble and keep the ball in play when he does block a shot. He's one of those guys that isn't always necessarily looking to get a block -- he's not out there throwing a roundhouse at a ball in the air -- but with he gets high enough that he racks up the rejections by simply challenging a lot of shots. Aldrich has also drawn praise for his ability to defend the pick-and-roll. Like I said, he's mobile, coordinated, and athletic for a man of his size.

Comparisons:

• Best Case Scenario: Draft Express lists a "rich man's Joel Pryzbilla" as their best case scenario for Aldrich. That's fair. I think Erick Dampier and Brendan Haywood are also fair comparisons.
  
• Worst Case Scenario: I've seen Bryant Reeves or Greg Ostertag written in some places, but I have a tough time believing that Aldrich won't be a capable defender/rebounder. Maybe Andres Biedrins?
  

Outlook: Most NBA draftniks are significantly lowered their projected ceiling for Aldrich after watching him play as a junior, but that isn't necessarily a bad thing. As I wrote before, I just have a tough time seeing Aldrich becoming a star in the league. Big centers with developing offensive games that hang their hats on their defense and rebounding are valuable pieces, but they aren't the kind of players that sell tickets and get shoe sponsorships. With Aldrich showing his willingness to defer to more talented teammates on the offensive end, he might have hurt his stock but he probably helped his bring his expectations to a realistic level. Let's say Aldrich ends up getting draft in the 12-18 range. If he ends up being a guy that gets you 12 points, 10 boards, and 3 blocks a game, that's pretty good for the middle of the first round. If he posted those numbers as a top five pick -- where teams hope to select franchise changing players -- Aldrich probably would have been labeled a bust.

Highlights: