Expansionocalypse 2010: Nebraska makes the first move

In the world of college sports, 2010 will go down as the year of expansion.

It started with the NCAA Tournament, where we averted disaster -- despite article after article after article claiming otherwise -- when the NCAA opted to expand to 68 teams as opposed to 96. That was only the beginning.

For much of the spring, my twitter feed has been dominated by talk of the Big Ten reaching their money hungry little paws into the Big East in order to expand to 12, 14, or even 16 teams. Then came the talk that the Big Ten was also looking at adding Nebraska and/or Missouri from the Big XII. All hell broke loose when Chip Brown of Orangebloods.com reported that the Pac-10 was planning on sending out invites to six Big XII teams, including Texas and Oklahoma. Hard to believe that report came out exactly one week ago today.

What that report did was line-up the dominoes. It doused the current structure of college in kerosene.

And yesterday, we got the spark.

With the news once again being broken by Brown (who has been all over this story), it appears as if Nebraska now has a formal invite from the Big Ten, which the Cornhuskers will gladly accept. Nebraska was facing an ultimatum from the Big XII, declare your loyalty or else, which is likely why Big Ten commissioner Jim Delany extended the offer. An announcement is expected Friday.

Assuming this information is correct (As of now, nothing is official, and one would be wise to keep in mind that every single news outlet was operating under the assumption that the NCAA Tournament to 96 teams was a done deal. Nebraska is already denying the reports.), the question becomes what next?

The general consensus is that the six schools reportedly offered by the Pac-10 -- Texas, Texas A&M, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, and Colorado -- will accept if Nebraska does leave. The New York Times is reporting that Texas and Texas A&M are meeting today to discuss where to go from here.

Its no secret why Texas would want to leave. They will be able to make much more money from a television contract with the Pac-16 -- one that features themselves, Oklahoma, and USC, among others -- and as we all know, C.R.E.A.M. In fact, some believe this situation to be so ideal that Nebraska's decision to leave was a preemptive strike, cashing in on a Big Ten invitation before Texas ran off to the west coast a few years down the road with half of the Big XII in tow.

But that still doesn't mean that the Pac-16 is a foregone conclusion. I mean, this is Texas we are talking about. With the four football schools in Texas and the two in Oklahoma, those are a lot of very passionate eyes locked onto TV sets every Saturday afternoon. Even if Nebraska, Missouri, and Colorado leave, can't the Big XII bring in, say, Memphis, TCU, and BYU without hurting their standing as a football conference too much? Would there even be a huge drop off -- if any -- in the amount of money the Big XII can get if they restructure their television contract?

That may just be wishful thinking. It appears as if the Big XII will go the way of the Southwest Conference.

The other player here is the Big Ten, who likely will not stand pat with the addition of Nebraska. Delany has said that the Big Ten could "act and act again", meaning that while bringing in Nebraska was a necessary play, the league may take some time before making their next move.

Speculating about the Big Ten's next move is where things get complicated. Does the league stand pat at 12? Do they add Missouri, who has been quite open about their desire to join the Big Ten? Will they add any teams from the Big East? For months, Syracuse, Rutgers, UConn, and Pitt (this report says Pitt is not a likely target, but are you really going to believe a word that comes out of Jim Delany's mouth?) have been discussed as potential Big Ten invitees.

Here's where it gets interesting. Let's say the Big Ten does invite those four schools, or at least intimates that an invite in imminent. That would leave the Big East with just four football schools -- West Virginia, Louisville, Cincinnati, and South Florida. Will the Big East be able to remain together? Its reasonable to think that the eight non-football schools can stick together as a basketball conference -- with programs like Villanova, Georgetown, and St. John's creating something similar to the A-10 -- but its seems unlikely the football schools would want to stick around.

Needless to say, it puts the Big East in a precarious situation. Is it possible that Notre Dame, a football independent but a Big East member for other sports, will see this developing and decide that they want to join the Big Ten? If the Big Ten gets Notre Dame, do they still want Nebraska? If they don't want Nebraska anymore, can the Big XII stick together?

The last aspect that needs to be considered is what happens to the Big XII's leftovers, specifically Kansas and Kansas State. Some reports are speculating that the Big East, so long as they don't lose four schools to the Big Ten, will try and add Kansas and Kansas State to remain a BCS conference. Others are speculating that the two schools could end up in the SEC. Baylor and Iowa State may have to settle for the MWC or the MVC.

Whatever the case may be, the next few days, weeks, and months are going to be one wild ride to follow.

College sports as we know it may have forever changed.