How do you define a sleeper?
A sleeper, at least when talking about college hoops, is a team that is capable of making it further than they are expected to based on their seed. But there's a catch: to be a "sleeper", you have to like them to win at least two games, and to make it least one game (preferably two) beyond where they are expected if chalk holds. Five seeds can't be Sweet 16 sleepers. Two seeds can't be Final Four sleepers. If you only think they can win one game, they aren't a sleeper; they are an upset pick.
Sleepers come in all shapes and sizes. Sleepers can come from the low- and mid-major conferences. Sleepers can come from the power conferences. Sleepers can have all-americans and lottery picks. Sleepers can lack a single all-conference player. Sleepers can be picked based on talent, style of play, and/or matchups. Most importantly, correctly predicting the "sleepers" is how you win your pool. And isn't that why all of you are reading this?
Today, we will be schooling you on the sleepers. Who should you trust? Who shouldn't you trust?
Here are the sleepers that you have seen play:
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets: #10 seed, Midwest Region
If there is one thing that we have learned about Georgia Tech this season its that they aren't to be trusted. Paul Hewitt's club is overflowing with talent, especially on their super-sized front line, but the potentially-lame-duck head coach has had a heckuva time trying to figure out how to get this team in sync. Normally, I would not recommend putting much -- if any -- faith in Tech, but I really like their matchups the first weekend. Georgia Tech's DeAndre Bell is a tough kid, making it all way back from spinal stenosis, the same injury that derailed TJ Ford's career. He is a very good defender on the perimeter, and both Oklahoma State and Ohio State rely heavily on a star player -- James Anderson and Evan Turner. It also doesn't take a basketball genius to realize that neither of the OSU's have much size or depth inside. Georgia Tech does with Gani Lawal, Derrick Favors, and Zach Peacock. If the Yellow Jackets can put it all together, they can win a game or two in this tournament.
Siena Saints: #13 seed, South Region
Everyone is going to be picking Siena in the first round against Purdue. The Boilermakers were going to be a popular pick for an early exit ever since Robbie Hummel blew his acl. But after scoring just a measly 11 points against Minnesota in the first half of their Big Ten semifinal, Purdue dropped down to a four seed. I get the feeling that the disappointment of this season is going to be weighing pretty heavily on Purdue. If Siena can jump on the Boilermakers early, I think they might fold. Regardless of who the Saints would get in the second round -- Texas A&M or Utah State -- I think it is going to be more about what Siena can do than what their opponent can. The Saints are talented enough that they don't need to rely on a good matchup to knock off higher seeded team. Remember, when discussing the possibility of calling this season a disappointment for the Saints, all of their big matchups came on the road. This is a team that has been waiting for March ever since they lost a dogfight to Louisville in last year's second round, and you could tell by some listless play late in the year. Siena is balanced (only team with four scorers at 13 ppg or higher), they are experienced, they have size, and they have a phenomenal point guard in Ronald Moore.
Gonzaga Bulldogs: #8th seed, West Region
I think the Zags are going to have some trouble with Florida State in the first round. They always get flustered against teams with as much length and athleticism as the Seminoles have. If they do happen to get past FSU, I really like the way the Zags match up with Syracuse, especially with Onuaku out. They have size inside, and their two best post players are far from what you would call a stiff. Both are offensive weapons on the block or at the high post. Steven Gray, and to a lesser extent guys off the bench like Manny Arop and Bol Kong, are shot makers on the perimeter. But the player that makes the difference against this zone is Matt Bouldin. He's the guy that can penetrate and get into the paint; he's the guy that can beat the zone with his passing; he's the Zag's star. I also like the Sweet 16 matchups Gonzaga would face. The Bulldogs have a team that can make an Elite 8 run. But how often have you heard that about Gonzaga?
Marquette Golden Eagles: #6 seed, East Region
I keep saying it. Over and over again. Marquette is not a team you want to face in the NCAA Tournament. They're tough, they're battle-tested, and they know how to get you playing their style. The Golden Eagles like when their games become a slower, grind-it-out paced affait. It works perfectly for them on the offensive end, as most teams are going to eventually break down defensively, especially when dealing with as many mismatches as the Golden Eagles cause. Their matchup with Washington should be entertaining, but I think Marquette picks up the win. After tonight's NIT performance, I have officially lost all faith in Pac-10 teams. New Mexico's personnel matches up well with Marquette's, in that they both like to try and exploit mismatches on the perimeter with the four and five man. That said, I simply think Marquette has better players and shooters. When Marquette is hitting their threes, watch out. If the Golden Eagles and West Virginia meet in the Sweet 16, it is going to be a battle. WVU beat Marquette in Morgantown on a buzzer beater from Da'Sean Butler. Both are very physical teams that don't mind getting physical and playing a scrappy style of basketball. If Marquette can keep the much bigger 'Eers off the glass, they can win it.
Wednesday, March 17, 2010
2010 NCAA Tournament Bracket Breakdown: Sleepers you have seen |
Posted by
Rob Dauster
at
8:45 AM
Labels: Bracket Breakdown, Georgia Tech, Gonzaga, Marquette, NCAA Tournament, Siena, Sleeper Teams
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
No comments:
Post a Comment