2010 NCAA Tournament Bracket Breakdown: South Region

You know how every year, there is one region that throws a wrench into everyone's bracket? One region where upsets happen, surprises abound, and the lucky few that happen to guess right win the bracket because of that particular region? Well, that's the south this season. Duke got a gift with this bracket. It has the lowest two, the lowest three, and the four seed that is missing their most important player.

This region, in all likelihood, is going to be a mess. And probably the most exciting.

So with that in mind, here is your South Region breakdown:



Final Four Favorite: Duke Blue Devils

Duke probably has to be considered the favorite in this region. Nothing against the Blue Devils, as they are a very talented team. I don't care how mediocre the ACC is, winning a conference regular season and tournament title is commendable. The Blue Devils have as good of a big three as anyone in the country, with Kyle Singler, Jon Scheyer, and Nolan Smith. Their front court is as big and as athletic as it has been in years. Brian Zoubek has all of a sudden become a rebounding force. Kenpom says they're the best team in the country. Who am I to argue. That said, Duke has struggled away from Cameron this season. And this group has struggled in March since they have been in Durham. I've said this over and over again -- you have to learn how to win. Has Duke done that yet?


And if they lose?: Baylor Bears

Baylor is actually my pick to make the Final Four out of this bracket. I love their back court of Tweety Carter and Lace Dunn. I love their length and athleticism. I love Ekpe Udoh. I love how aggressively they go to the offensive glass. What does concern me, however, is that both Duke and Villanova have talented guards that can penetrate and they can shoot threes. That is how you beat the Baylor zone.


Sweet 16 Sleeper (10 or lower): Siena Saints (UPDATE: Apparently, Clarence Jackson rolled his ankle in practice on Saturday and was on crutches during the selection show Sunday night.)

There are a number of teams that can be picked here (Utah State, Old Dominon, St. Mary's), but I think the Saints have the best chance. Siena isn't sneaking up on anyone this year, not after winning a game the last two tournaments. But that doesn't mean Siena isn't a good team. There are two things I like about this Siena team -- experience and balance. All the guys on this team have been through the tournament before; the Saints aren't going to be blinded by the lights. The Saints are also the only team this season to have four players average more than 13 ppg. I really like how well Edwin Ubiles and Alex Franklin match up with major conference players. But the key to this team is point guard Ronald Moore, who doesn't get enough national recognition. The kid led the country in assists this year, is fantastic in the open floor, and has made clutch shots. Moore, and Siena has a whole, doesn't rattle easy, meaning Moore shouldn't be affected by the tough defense he will face against Texas A&M and Purdue. One last Siena note - keep in mind, when talking about the losses the Saints had to quality out of conference opponents, that all of those games were on the road.


Final Four Sleeper (5 or lower): Texas A&M Aggies

I was going to pick Richmond, but I will be getting to them in a minute, so I went with the Aggies here. A&M is a tough team, not just physically, but mentally as well. How many teams would have dealt with a catastrophic injury to their emotional leader (Derrick Roland's broken leg) like A&M did? This is a team that likes to control the tempo and plays defense. Donald Sloan is there star, but Brian Davis and David Loubeau are solid up front as well. The Aggies fate may rest on the health of Dash Harris.


Seeded too high: Notre Dame Fighting Irish

Slo-tre Dame has been very good playing under this new system, but don't let this new style make you forget about the how poorly the Irish played before this stretch. Just a month ago, Notre Dame was considered completely out of the tournament conversation. The last time we saw a run like this out of the Big East, Gerry McNamara led Syracuse through the Big East Tournament and from the bubble to a five seed. They lost in the first round. I'm just sayin'.


Seeded too low: Richmond Spiders

Richmond is a very good basketball team. They beat Mississippi State, Missouri, Old Dominion, and Florida out of conference. They won 13 games in league play, finishing second in the A-10 regular season, and made the tournament finals. They finished 22nd in the RPI. How did they end up as a seven seed? Richmond loves to spread the floor. They have a big man that is a competent passer out of the high post. They have one of the best back courts in the country with David Gonzalvez and Kevin Anderson. Think of their offense as a cross between Georgetown and Marquette. Like I said, this is a very good basketball team, and Villanova should be concerned.


Player to Watch (8 and up): David Gonzalvez and Kevin Anderson, Richmond, and Ekpe Udoh, Baylor

Like I said, Richmond's back court is as good as any in the country; there aren't 10 back courts I would rather have. Gonzalvez is bigger and a better shooter, while Anderson is a crafty scorer that is difficult to keep out of the lane. They play well together, and both have shown an ability to hit big shots. Ekpe Udoh has made an amazing improvement this season. After sitting the year out per transfer requirements, Udoh has returned as a much, much better player offensively and a guy that anchors Baylor inside defensively.


Player to Watch (9 and lower): Omar Samhan, St. Mary's

Samhan is a big, fiery center that can score on the block, rebound the ball, and was named WCC defensive player of the year. He's a legitimate 20-10 guy. St. Mary's gets Richmond and Villanova in the first two rounds, two teams that lack a big man in the post. St. Mary's has a couple talented guards in Mickey McConnell and Matthew Dellevedova, but neither of those two are known as good defenders. SMC has a chance to make the Sweet 16, but it is going to take a big weekend from Samhan. He's capable of it.


Best Matchup -- 1st Round: #7 Richmond vs. #10 St. Mary's

Two of the best mid-majors in the country. Richmond is a team based on their guard play, as we mentioned already. St. Mary's relies on Samhan inside and the open threes he creates on the perimeter. Richmond has a big guy inside in Dan Geriot, but the former all-conference player has struggled since coming back from a torn acl. McConnell and Dellavedova will have their hands full trying to stop the Richmond back court. Who's going to step up defensively?

Notre Dame has been so good since slowing down their attack. They execute flawlessly in the half court and have ramped up their defensive intensity. That said, they are coming off of a loss to a West Virginia team that is similar to Old Dominion. Big, athletic, aggressive on the glass, tough defensively. Notre Dame did not look good against West Virginia, and may struggle against the equally slowed-down Monarchs. Expect this game to finish in the 50's.


Best Potential Matchup: #3 Baylor vs. #2 Villanova

Man, would this be an entertaining game to watch. Villanova struggles against big, athletic teams, which is Baylor to a T. But Baylor struggles against teams with dynamic, penetrating guards and three point shooters, which is Villanova to a T. Villanova's biggest weakness is on the defensive end. They foul too much and they will struggle on the glass against the Bears. But Villanova has guys that are proven winners and deep tournament experience. Baylor doesn't.


Upset Alert!!!: Old Dominion, Siena, St. Mary's/Richmond

We've talked about Siena beating Purdue, and we've also talked about Old Dominion's matchup with Notre Dame. But I think that both the Gaels and the Spiders will matchup well with Villanova. The Wildcats don't have answer inside for Omar Samhan, who may go to the line 30 times if these two meet up. I'm also not sure if Scottie Reynolds and Corey Fisher will be able to stay in front of Anderson and Gonzalvez. Villanova better come ready to play.


Anything Else?:

• We didn't get a chance to mention it, but the Cal-Louisville game should be quite entertaining. The Bears can score with the best of them, and I don't care how well you play it, defending shooters against in a zone is a tough thing to do. That said, tell me who on Cal can handle Samardo Samuels?
  


• Am I the only one hoping "Wild Bill" makes the trip to Spokane? He wasn't at the WAC title game.
  


• The last seven games, Notre Dame has had a total of 392 possessions, or 56.0 per game. That would rank dead last nationally in terms of tempo.