Tuesday, February 23, 2010

The key for UConn: free throws

UConn fans should be celebrating.

Last night, the Huskies knocked off West Virginia 73-62, their second straight win over a top ten team on a Big Monday. They've now won three straight games and seem to be peaking down the stretch as they try to play their way into the tournament.

With the talent UConn has on their roster, they are going to be a tough first round matchup for whatever five or six seed they draw.

Kemba Walker has been impossible to defend lately.
(photo credit: AP)

A couple things stuck out last night during the game. Kemba Walker seems to finally be embracing the role of the leader for this team. Over the last three games, he is averaging 22.0 ppg and is the one with the ball in his hands in crucial moments. This Husky team that has shown much more life than in their left-for-dead loss against Cincinnati 10 days ago. They are playing with an emotion and intensity I'm sure Jim Calhoun has been begging for all season long.

But last night also revealed a trend that could end up being a problem for the Huskies.

Foul shots.

And for the first time in what feels like a decade, it isn't because they aren't hitting them.

In UConn's three biggest wins of the season, they have recorded three of their four highest free throw rates. (Free throw rate is simply free throws attempted divided by field goals attempted.) In fact, UConn is undefeated when they record a free throw rate of 50% or higher. Granted, some of that has come as a result of team's fouling down the stretch to put the Huskies on the line.

When UConn has struggled is when they have been unable to get to the line.

Why?

Because UConn still struggles to score in a half court setting. As good as guys like Jerome Dyson, Stanley Robinson, and Walker are, they still are a much more effective team playing in the open floor. They excel when they can use their athleticism to run by and finish over a back-pedaling defense. What UConn has done against Villanova, West Virginia, and Texas is to penetrate and attack even in the half court. Dyson and Walker are as difficult to stay in front of as any back court tandem in the country. As a result, they pick up quite a few fouls in the process.

The more fouls UConn draws, the more UConn gets to the foul line. Knocking down free throws is the easiest way to score in basketball, a fact that is magnified when looking at UConn's half court offense.

But what happens come tournament time? What happens when games get more physical? What happens when referees are not as quick to blow the whistle?

Will the Huskies still be able to score in a half court setting?

Its something for Husky fans to think about.

No comments: