The Big Ten is a mess, but in a good way

So that Kalin Lucas injury has thrown a bit of a wrench into the Big Ten standings, huh?

A week ago, Michigan State had a commanding three game lead in the conference standings. Now, after losing to Wisconsin, Illinois, and Purdue, they are tied for the lead in the Big Ten race with Illinois, with three more teams within a game of first place. There are a number of conference races that have been fun to watch, but there may not be a more exciting finish than the Big Ten, as there are still seven games pitting two teams within a game of first place.

Hit the jump to see our breakdown of the Big Ten race.


Favorite: Michigan State (19-6, 9-3)

Remaining Schedule: @ PSU, @ Ind, OSU, @ Pur, PSU, Mich

Why they will win: I'm not ready to give up on the Spartans just because of this losing streak. You shouldn't be, either. This is what happens when you lose your star in the midst of the toughest stretch of your season. Did anyone fault Ohio State when Evan Turner was out with the back injury? Yes, Kalin Lucas had a gutty, impressive performance last night, but anyone that watched the game will tell you he wasn't at 100%. The grimaces, the limping, the lack of balance on his jumper, and his missing burst of quickness is all the evidence you need. With a healthy Kalin Lucas, MSU was 9-1 in league play (we'll concede the loss to Wisconsin). With a healthy Kalin Lucas, they are the most talented team in the conference. They also happen to play the easiest schedule over the last six games. The title may come down to February 20th's match-up with Ohio State. I don't think Michigan State will beat Purdue in Mackey, but I also think that a 5-1 finish from the Spartans will be enough.

Durrell Summers has been far from the model of consistency.
(photo credit: MLive)

Why they won't: Consistency. Well, inconsistency actually. As I mentioned, the Spartans are the most talented team in the conference, but they also may be the most fickle. Tom Izzo never seems to know exactly what he is going to get out of some of his stars. Raymar Morgan, who was thought to be a potential NBA player, has averaged just 5.5 ppg over the last four game. He had averaged 16.8 ppg over the four games before that. It seems like its a coin flip whether Durrell Summers, another guy with NBA potential, will show up. He had 2 points and took just two shots in 16 minutes last night. That's one of the reasons that Izzo got on Lucas for his leadership abilities earlier in the season. Not just because he wasn't being as much of a "leader" as Izzo would have liked, but because the Spartans needed the balance and the consistency that he brings to the table.


And if they lose: Purdue (20-3, 8-3)

Remaining Schedule: Iowa, @ OSU, Ill, @ Minn, MSU, Ind, @ PSU

Why they will win: Purdue is a great defensive team. They are intelligent, patient, and unselfish on the offensive end. Robbie Hummel and JaJuan Johnson are as good as anyone in the conference at their positions. Lewis Jackson is finally back to run the point, and Kelsey Barlow has looked very good in the last few weeks sharing the duties. But if they do win the Big Ten, the reason is going to be E'Twaun Moore. Moore, who may be the smoothest player in the country, is really the only guy on Purdue that can create his own shot. We've known he can shoot, and we've known he was a player since he first set foot on Gene Keady Court, but this season he has developed into a star. Whenever Purdue needs a bucket, he is the guy with the ball in his hands. He had five points and as assist in a 7-0 spurt that put away Michigan State in the Final Four minutes last night.

If it wasn't for Evan Turner, E'Twaun Moore would have a lot of talk about him for Big Ten POY.
(photo credit: SB Nation)

Why they won't: Purdue has gone 20-0 this season if you forget the three-game losing streak they had in the middle of January. The cause of that slide was a lack of leadership and focus from some of the Boilermakers upperclassmen, which meant that Purdue got away from playing their game. That is precisely the problem with the Boilermakers. This is not a team that is going to beat you on talent. They win because they control the pace of a game, they force you into tough shots defensively, and they execute offensively. Purdue wins when they play their game; when they assert their will on a game. If you look at the three teams they lost to - Wisconsin, Northwestern, and Ohio State - those are teams that like to do the same thing. When Purdue gets away from doing what they want to do, they can struggle.


But don't count out: Wisconsin (18-6, 8-4)

Remaining Schedule: Ind, @ Minn, NW, @ Ind, Iowa, @ Ill

Why they will win: Never count out a Bo Ryan team. In a season where the Badgers were not expected to do much of anything, he has led the Badgers to within a game of first place and the brink of a top four seed in the tournament despite playing a terrible difficult schedule. Wisconsin has already played Ohio State, Purdue, and Michigan State twice, and will get Illinois for the second time on the last day of the season. It also just so happens that the Illinois game is the only game that Wisconsin may not be favored. There is a very real possibility the Badgers go undefeated in their final six games, something they likely must do if they want to win the Big Ten.

When will Jon Leuer return?
(photo credit: FranklinNow)

Why they won't: Because there are four teams in front of them in the standings, Wisconsin, as we said above, may have to go undefeated down the stretch in order to lock up the title. While that is far from impossible given who the Badgers play, the issue isn't with who the Badgers have. Its who they won't have, namely Jon Leuer. Leuer broke his wrist Jan. 9th against Purdue, a game the Badgers actually won at home. They've also beaten Michigan State and won at Northwestern during this stretch, but overall Wisconsin is just 5-3 without Leuer. To be fair, those three losses came at Purdue, at Ohio State, and against Illinois last night, three of the other Big Ten challengers. Keaton Nankivil and Jordan Taylor, among others, have stepped up and played well in his stead, but will that be enough to win the Big Ten?


Tough road ahead: Ohio State (18-6, 8-3)

Remaining Schedule: @ Ind, @ Ill, Pur, @ MSU, @ PSU, Mich, Ill

Why they will win: Evan Turner is the best player in the country. Simple as that. With Turner in the line-up, Ohio State may actually have the best, most balanced starting five in the country. His ability to drive makes Jon Diebler and William Buford threats on the perimeter. He makes Dallas Lauderdale an offensive weapon at the rim. He allows David Lighty to play the role of the blue collar glue guy. With Turner in the line-up, the Buckeyes always have a shot to win.

How far will Evan Turner carry OSU?
(photo credit: Cleveland.com)

Why they won't: The Buckeyes have no depth. Thad Matta has been trimming his rotation, cutting it down to seven three games ago, and only using six players - playing Turner, Diebler, Buford, and Lighty for 40 minutes - against Iowa last week. That's a lot of minutes, especially when you consider this game was against Iowa, the team you are supposed to be able to rest your starters in. Ohio State still has four games against the other four teams at the top of the Big Ten and has to play four of their next five on the road. Will the legs last with that kind of travel and that level of competition?


Tougher road ahead: Illinois (16-8, 9-3)

Remaining Schedule: OSU, @ Pur, @ Minn, Mich, @ OSU, Wisc

Why they will win: When Demetri McCamey plays like he has during Illinois' five game winning streak, this is a different Illini team. We've always known McCamey was a talent, his issue was shot selection and decision making. There were too few smart plays and too many head scratchers. But in the last five games, and more specifically the last two in particular, McCamey has been scoring, but he has been doing it efficiently by taking good shots. He's been distributing the ball well and knocking down some tough, clutch jumpers. Basically, he's been playing the way that a star point guard should be.

How long will the Illini be able to keep this up?
(photo credit: STL Dispatch)

Why they won't: I'm not completely on the Illini bandwagon yet. Yes, wins over Michigan State and at Wisconsin are nice, but both came when the teams were missing their leading scorer. Yes, I think this team deserves to be in the NCAA tournament. Yes, this team is capable of beating anyone in this conference. But they still have to play four games against the top five, travel to Minnesota, and play Michigan. That's a brutal schedule to finish the season, and I am not yet convinced the Illini are good enough to make that run. They are a jump shooting team without a real physical post presence and an enigmatic and streaky point guard.