The Big East may struggle next season

As Doug Gottlieb pointed out last week, part of the reason that the Pac-10 is so down this season has been the exodus of players from the league to The League.

In the last two seasons, 21 Pac-10 players have been drafted, with 13 going in the first round. In contrast, the ACC, the Big East, and the Big XII has each had 13 players draft the past two seasons, while the SEC has had only nine and the Big Ten just five. That stat becomes all the more impressive when you consider that the Pac-10 has the fewest number of teams of all the major conferences.

Of the 21 players taken from the Pac-10, 14 left school early, including talents like Kevin Love, Demar Derozan, Russell Westbrook, the Lopez twins, Jerryd Bayless, Jordan Hill, Jrue Holiday, and James Harden.

So could the Pac-10's struggles really be that simple?

Could it really just be the result of so much talent heading to the NBA in such a short period of time?

Short answer: yes.

When you lose that much talent in such a short period of time, its very difficult to replace, whether you are talking about a team or a conference.

Is the Big East headed down that same road?

Think about how much talent will be leaving the league this season. Five of the top six scorers are seniors. Of the three favorites for conference POY, two are seniors and the other is an expected lottery pick.

Seriously, take a look at who will be playing their last Big East game in March:

• Seniors
  
  - Scottie Reynolds, Villanova
  - Luke Harangody, Notre Dame
  - Andy Rautins and Arinze Onuaku, Syracuse
  - Da'Sean Butler, West Virginia
  - Deonta Vaughn, Cincinnati
  - Jerome Dyson, Stanley Robinson, and Gavin Edwards, UConn
  - Edgar Sosa and Jerry Smith, Louisville
  - Dominique Jones, South Florida
  - Lazar Hayward, Marquette
  - Sharaud Curry, Providence
  


• Likely to leave early
  
  - Wes Johnson, Syracuse
  - Greg Monroe, Georgetown
  - Devin Ebanks, West Virginia
  - Lance Stephenson and Yancy Gates, Cincinnati
  - Mac Kowshal, DePaul
  

And those are far from the only players that could end up leaving early. Chris Wright, Austin Freeman, Kevin Jones, Kemba Walker, Corey Fisher, Herb Pope, Jeremy Hazell. Would anyone really be that surprised if anyone from that group declared?

The issue isn't just losing players to the NBA. That is going to happen. Hell, the Big East sent nine players to the NBA after last season, with four going in the lottery, and the conference still has five top 25 teams, four in the top 15.

The issue becomes who is going to replace the departed talent.

As of now, there are not many prospects in the league. As Jeff Goodman pointed out yesterday, the freshman class overall has been a bit of a disappointment when compared to recent classes. No Big East freshman made first or second team, and Lance Stephenson, who is all but guaranteed to be a one-and-done, was the only one even mentioned by Goodman.

Want proof of the lack of prospects expected to be in next year's Big East?

Draft Express has just one Big East player (Kemba Walker) projected as a first round pick in 2011. The best recruit coming in next season? Fab Melo, a seven foot center headed to Syracuse, who is rated 16th overall by Rivals. For comparison's sake, the players rated 15th-20th by Rivals this season were John Jenkins, Renardo Sidney, Latavious Williams, Wally Judge, Royce White, and Ryan Kelly. Those aren't exactly program changers.

It is doubtful that the Big East will be as pitiful next season as the Pac-10 is this season. Syracuse will add a nice recruiting class to a solid core of returners. Villanova loses Scottie Reynolds, but should get everyone else back. Pitt will have a solid group returning.

There will still be teams in the league that could contend for a Final Four trip.

But expecting the Big East to once again be in the conversation for the best conference in college hoops may be a bit far-fetched.