Rating "quality" losses: where do UConn and UNC stand?

UNC and UConn have been two of the best programs in the country over the last decade or so. Both have won two titles since the late 1990's, both have sent dozens of players to the NBA, and both are dealing with the departure of quite a bit of talent from the 2009 season.

That's not to say that neither team has talent on their roster this season.

Its quite the opposite actually.

UConn has a sure-fire first-rounder (Stanley Robinson) surrounded by four guys (Jerome Dyson, Kemba Walker, Alex Oriakhi, Gavin Edwards) that are fairly likely to end up on an NBA roster at some point in their basketball lifetime.

UNC?

Their entire front line may end up getting paid to play - Ed Davis, Deon Thompson, Tyler Zeller, John Henson, the Wear twins.

There is a reason that, on paper, both of these teams looked to be capable of competing for their conference titles. Things haven't exactly turned out as planned, however. Both the Huskies and the Heels have struggled mightily for the last two weeks. UConn lost their third straight game on Saturday at Michigan, dropping them to 11-6 on the season while they have started just 2-3 in the Big East. UNC hasn't been much better, as a home loss to Georgia Tech was their third loss in four games, dropping the Heels to 12-6 on the year and 1-2 in the ACC.

But of those 12 losses, there is really only one that can be considered a "bad" loss, when UNC dropped an overtime contest to Charleston two weeks ago.

UNC's other five losses?

Syracuse, Kentucky, Texas, Clemson, and Georgia Tech. All five could make the Sweet 16 this season, while Syracuse, Kentucky, and Texas are legitimate Final Four contenders.

UConn is similar. While they have lost six games, they have come against Duke, Kentucky, Cincinnati, Georgetown, Pitt, and Michigan. Duke, Kentucky, and Pitt are all a favorite to win their respective conferences, while Georgetown is playing like a top 15 team. Cinci and Michigan have both been disappointing this season, but it shouldn't surprise anyone if they earned a trip to the dance by the end of the season.

So the question becomes whether or not these two teams can make the NCAA tournament as an at-large.

UNC will likely be in barring a collapse. They already have wins over Michigan State and Ohio State (with Evan Turner) as well as victories over top 100 RPI teams Virginia Tech, Nevada, and Marshall. Their loss to Charleston doesn't look as bad when you consider that the Cougars are the favorite to win the Steph Curry-less Southern Conference and a top 100 team in the RPI. True, they've been awful the last two weeks, but keep in mind their three losses all have come against teams with the ability to exploit Carolina's weaknesses; namely, play physical, pressuring defense in the back court.

UNC's computer numbers aren't great right now (RPI is 55th, 46th by Kenpom), but are likely to improve as Ohio State gets better with Turner back and with UNC playing a tough conference slate.

UConn is in a different boat. Were the tournament to start today, the Huskies may be on the outside looking in. They are rated 14th in the RPI, but that is largely due to the fact they've played the toughest schedule in the country (with a date with Texas still to come) than a result of impressive wins. In fact, UConn's "marquee" wins right now are against William & Mary and Harvard, who are 28th and 50th in the RPI, respectively.

Its not unheard of for a team to earn an at-large berth based solely on a decent season against a tough schedule. Arizona made it in 2008 for that very reason. And to be fair, UConn has yet to be run out of the gym; each loss they've suffered could have turned out differently if a couple free throws went in or a couple calls went the other way down the stretch.

But if the Huskies want to ensure themselves a spot in the dance, it would behoove them to pull out one of these close games against real competition.