2008-2009 Record: 21-14, 9-9 (t-7th)
Key Losses: Kelvin Grady (6.1 ppg), Zack Gibson (3.9 ppg)
Key Returners: Manny Harris (16.9 ppg, 6.8 rpg, 4.4 apg), DeShawn Sims (15.4 ppg, 6.8 rpg), Zack Novak (6.7 ppg, 3.5 rpg)
Newcomers: Darius Morris, Eso Akunne, Matt Vogrich, Josh Bartelstein, Blake McLimans, Jordan Morgan
Manny Harris is one of the best natural scorers in the country.(photo credit: UMHoops)
John Beilein runs arguably the most unique system in the country, and as would be expected, it took the Michigan players a season to get used to what Beilein was asking of them. In Beilein's second year at the helm, his guys became more accustomed to the offense and the Wolverines had their most successful season in a long time, reaching the NCAA Tournament's 2nd round. This year, Michigan will be one of the best teams in the Big Ten.
Michigan's offense will be based around the play of DeShawn Sims and Manny Harris. Harris is one of the most natural scorers in the country. Standing a lithe 6'5", Harris is at his best when he is using his quick first step to attack the rim. He is still a bit toolsy, as his jump shot and handle can still be improved. Where Harris made strides as a sophomore was with his efficiency. He greatly improved his shot selection and his decision making when passing the ball, an aspect that should become even better as he gets more comfortable with Beilein's system. The one place that Harris still could use some work is his perimeter jumper. He has made less than a third of his three point attempts during his first two seasons. Given Beilein's reliance on the three in his offense, improving this aspect of his game would greatly improve Harris's effectiveness.
While Harris is a bit of an imperfect fit for the Beilein system on the perimeter, Sims seems to be slightly better. At 6'8", he is able to hold his on in the post at both ends. He has a solid back-to-the-basket game, with a turn-around jumper as his go-to move. But Sims also has the ability to step out and knock down a shot from the perimeter. While he could still stand to improve upon his consistency, opposing bigs still have to come out and respect the shot, which allows the nimble Sims opportunities to put the ball on the floor and go to the basket. The biggest area Sims needs to improve is in his energy level and his work ethic. He looked lethargic at times last season, and as a result had a number of games where he didn't show up; while he has games like the 28 and 12 he had against Duke or the 29 he went for against Purdue, there is also the chance he goes 3-14 like he did against Illinois or 4-11 he shot against UConn.
As they did last season, I would expect Michigan to start four guards around Sims. There are four guys who will likely compete for those three starting spots - sophomores Zack Novak, Stu Douglass, and Laval Lucas-Perry and freshman Darius Morris. Novak, Douglass, and Lucas-Perry are all essentially the same player. Big guards that can do a little bit of everything, Lucas-Perry came in with the best reputation last season, but he was forced to play out of position for a lot of the season as Michigan struggled with their point guard situation.
That problem should be fixed with Morris. Morris is not the greatest offensive player, but he can penetrate and find shooters, he plays defense, and most importantly, he is an actual point guard. His biggest competition for playing time this season - Lucas-Perry and Douglass - both prefer to play off the ball. Speaking of Douglass, he and Novak should both be expected to have big sophomore seasons. They are both heady players that are good three point shooters and athletic enough to be a play maker in the Wolverines 1-3-1 zone. Also expect freshman Matt Vogrich, another 6'4" shooting guard, to have an impact this season.
The biggest problem for Beilein is going to be finding another big man that can provide quality minutes. With the strength of the Big Ten this season, being forced to have 6'5" guards like Harris and Novak as your second biggest player on the floor will make rebounding the ball very tough. Freshmen Jordan Morgan, Blake McClimans, and Ben Cronin are all possibilities to fill that role. Morgan is a 6'8" kid out of Detroit, and as you would expect, he is a blue collar type player. He will provide Beilein with a tough, rugged presence in the paint, fighting for rebounds and making opposing bigs work for their touches. Cronin, who is 7'0", is coming off of hip surgery last season and could provide an impact.
But the guy to keep an eye on in Blake McLimans. McLimans is 6'10" and athletic enough that he played volleyball and baseball in high school. He is the perfect big man for Beilein - he is an excellent three point shooter, he can pass the ball from the high post, and he is comfortable playing onthe perimeter 22 feet from the rim. McLimans doesn't have the same ring to it, but he could be the next Kevin Pittsnoggle.
Outlook: This may be the most talented team that John Beilein has ever coached. Manny Harris is a legitimate all-american candidate, DeShawn Sims could be a first or second team all-Big Ten guy, and their supporting cast can all play. But none of that matters, because the Wolverines will go as far as Beilein's system takes them. The ability of the team to make back door cuts, hit three pointers, and rebound out of a 1-3-1 zone is what will be the difference for Michigan. Will they once again finish in the middle of the Big Ten and get a nine or ten seed in the dance, or can they make that next step and stay near the top of the league standings? If Zack Novak, Stu Douglass, and Laval Lucas-Perry all continue to develop, and Darius Morris and Blake McLimans can come in and fill a (much-needed) role, Michigan is going to win a lot of games.
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