The Curious Case of Virginia Tech

On Selection Sunday, when the NCAA Tournament committee gets together, their goal is to select the 34 best teams in the country that did not win their conference tournament.

How does one go about choosing the best 34 teams? Win-loss record, RPI, conference standings, record on the road, the list goes on and on and on. Suffice to say, being one of the people tasked with whittling every bubble team to the select 34 that get to go dancing is not an easy job.

But I will say this - Virginia Tech is and will be one of the 34 best at-large teams come March 15th. But odds are, they will not be in the tournament.

Why?

Because they won't have one of the 34 best at-large resumes.

As of today, the Hokies are 17-11 overall and 7-7 in the ACC. Their computer numbers are also average at best (RPI of 59, SOS of 36). Their best wins (Clemson, Wake Forest, BC) are overshadowed by equally bad losses (Seton Hall, Georgia, UVA). More than likely, they will need to sweep their last two games (UNC, @ Florida State) to have a serious case at getting into the field of 65.

So how can I so assuredly state that Va Tech will be one of the 34 best at-large teams?

While it plays no role in the committee's selection process, there is something to be said for close losses. And there is no team in the country that has suffered more heart-breaking losses than the Hokies have. Seven of their eleven losses have come by four points or less. But they have also won seven games by five points or less, so the luck swings both ways, right?

Maybe. Take a look at some of these losses:

• Toney Douglas hits a runner with 6.2 seconds left to lift Florida State over the Hokies 67-65.
• Rakim Sanders tipped in a Tyrese Rice miss with 0.4 seconds left as BC knocked off Tech 67-66.
• Trevon Hughes hit this buzzer beater to beat the Hokies in the ACC-Big Ten Challenge:
  
  
  
  
• And who can forget Dante Jackson's halfcourt game winner:
  
  
  
  

Now, just to throw salt in the wound, with Va Tech down three to Duke with under a minute left, Jon Scheyer is allowed to 1-2 step for about five seconds before Duke is credited with a timeout. The Hokies would go on to lose a game they desperately needed for their NCAA tournament hopes.

To be fair, Tech would not have necessarily come back to beat the Devils. And assuming that those four buzzer beaters were all missed, two of those games would have gone into overtime.

Even if you assume that Tech would have lost to Wisconsin and Florida State in OT, if Tech had those wins over Xavier and BC right now, they would almost undoubtedly be in the tournament right now. They surely would be in a position where they only needed to win one of their last two games, as opposed to the situation they are in now (needing to win both).

So should Va Tech be given a pass because they've suffered so many tough losses?

Absolutely not. That is the beauty of sports. You just never know what can happen. Besides, more than the number of buzzer beaters that have beaten Tech, the reason they are headed for another NIT is the losses they have to Seton Hall, Georgia, and Virginia. 20-8 and 8-6 is much different than 17-11 and 7-7.

Just keep this in mind. If Virginia Tech loses to UNC at home, but beats Florida State on the road, they will finish up the regular season at 18-12 and 8-8 in the ACC, and more than likely needing to win two games in the ACC tournament if they want to make the NCAA's.

But if that Dante Jackson heave doesn't go in, the Hokies would have four wins against teams in the top 20 in the RPI. That is a large number of quality wins to send to the NIT, especially for a team that ended up .500 in toughest (arguably) league in america.