College Basketball Week In Review: Life on the Bubble

With just a week left in the regular season for most teams, let's take a look at who can help themselves the most over these next seven days:

• Virginia Tech 17-11, 7-7, 59 (RPI), 36 (SOS): The Hokies have been the most snakebitten team in the country this season (more on this later today), but still have a chance to reach the dance because they play UNC (home) and Florida State (away) to close out the season. They may need to win both if they want to lock up a bid.
• Maryland 18-10, 7-7, 58, 22: The Terps have a couple really nice wins (@ UNC, Michigan State), but a terrible loss (Morgan State) and a 2-5 road record. While a win at UVA helps bolster the road record, they may need to beat Wake Forest at home if they want a chance to dance.

• Providence 17-11, 10-7, 71, 38: The Friars have one game left on their schedule - at Villanova. At this point, they probably need to win that game for a shot at making the dance. If they lose, the committee can easily turn down a 12 loss team, but can they reject a team that went 11-7 in the Big East this year, with a win over Pitt and a win at Villanova?
• The Middle of the Big Ten: Illinois, Purdue, and Michigan State are dancing, but there are five teams within a game and a half of each other in the Big Ten standings that still can end up in the field of 65:
  
  - Wisconsin (18-10, 9-7, 32, 5): @ Minnesota, Indiana
  - Penn State (20-9, 9-7, 64, 92): Illinois, @ Iowa
  - Minnesota (20-8, 8-8, 37, 47): Wisconsin, Michigan
  - Ohio State (18-9, 8-8, 41, 24): @ Iowa, Northwestern
  - Michigan (17-12, 8-9, 47, 10): @ Minnesota
  
  Penn State and Ohio State probably need to win out to reach the dance (Penn State needs the wins, Ohio State can't afford the losses). Depending on how the games play out, two of Michigan/Minnesota/Wisconsin should be dancing as well.
• Oklahoma State 19-9, 8-6, 31, 13: See below.
• Florida 21-8, 8-6, 42, 93; Kentucky 18-10, 8-6, 66, 64: The Gators go to Mississippi State on Wednesday and the Wildcats get Georgia at home. Assuming both teams win those games (far from a sure thing, especially for Florida, who is 2-6 in true road games), on Saturday Kentucky heads to Gainesville in what will most likely be a play-in game. Does a 9-7 SEC team go dancing?
• Dayton 24-5, 10-4, 27, 105: Dayton has a great record and a great RPI, but probably needs to sweep this week (@ Xavier, Duquense) if they want to ensure an at-large bid. The wins against Marquette and Xavier are nice, but an SOS in the 100's and losses to St. Louis (113), UMass (162), and Charlotte (183) are not good.
  

PLAYER OF THE WEEK:
Sherron Collins, Kansas Jayhawks
Much has been written about how young the Jayhawks are this year and how much they lost to graduation/NBA paychecks after winning the national title. But come March of 2009, the Baby Jayhawks are now all alone in first place in the Big XII, needing only to win at Texas Tech and to beat Texas at home to lock up a fifth straight conference title. This past week was huge, as KU knocked off both Oklahoma and Missouri. And as has been the case all season long, Sherron Collins was the best player on the floor for KU. Against Oklahoma, Collins shook off a bit of a slow start as he knocked down three huge three's late in the game, which helped to hold off a 20 point rally by the Blake Griffin-less Sooners. On Sunday, Collins scored 25 points and had 6 assists as Kansas jumped all over Mizzou early, winning the battle for first place 90-65. All told, Collins averaged 25.5 ppg, 4.5 apg, and 3.5 rpg, while shooting 50% from the field, 14-18 from the line, and 9-14 from deep.

Sherron Collins was on fire in two games last week.
(photo credit: Orlin Wagner/AP)

TEAMS OF THE WEEK:
Oklahoma State and LSU
OK State was not expected to be much of anything this year, especially not after their only legitimate post threat, Ibrahima Thomas, was kicked off of the team early in the season. Things looked bleak as the Cowboys lost six of eight early in the conference season, but they have responded admirably by winning five in a row, including two games this week - at Colorado and at home against Texas. The win against Texas was the most important win of the season, as it finally gave OK State a marquee win. The Cowboys are far from a lock at this point despite their very strong computer profile (31 RPI, 13 SOS), mainly because they haven't had all that much success against a very tough schedule (3-8 vs. top 50, 7-9 vs. top 100). But they still have games against Kansas State and Oklahoma. Winning one of those should get the Cowboys in, while winning both would guarantee a trip to the dance. For the week, the vastly underrated James Anderson led the Cowboys with 23 ppg, including a 30 and 10 board performance against Colorado. Marshall Moses averaged 11.5 ppg and 12.5 rpg this week.

LSU is leading the SEC with an impressive 25-4 record, 13-1 in the league. But they are far from getting the credit that record would deserve for two reasons: the general consensus is that the SEC is down quite a bit this year; but more so it is the fact that LSU has not been all that impressive on the road. They lost their first three games away from Baton Rouge (Texas A&M on a neutral court, at Utah by 30, and at Alabama). They have been much better on the road of late, winning, amongst others, at Tennessee, at Mississippi State, and at Arkansas (who, if you remember, beat Texas and Oklahoma in Fayetteville). If that still wasn't enough to convince you that LSU is for real this year, then maybe this week did. Not only did they beat Florida, but they won in Rupp, coming back from a ten point deficit to beat the Wildcats on a Tasmin Mitchell three pointer with less than 10 seconds left. The bottom-line, for me anyway, is that LSU passes the smell test - watching them play (I saw most of the two games this week, the first two I have seen the Tigers play this year, thank you very much Raycom Sports), they look like a team deserving of a top four seed.

Marcus Thornton hit five three's in a row in the first half against Florida
en route to 32 points in the Tiger's win.
(photo credit: Bill Feig/AP)

Marcus Thornton, when he is a hot, can put up points with the best of them (he averaged 27.5 ppg on the week). Garrett Temple ranks up there with Chris Kramer, Jerel McNeal, and Travis Walton as the best perimeter defenders in the nation. Tasmin Mitchell is a load on the block. Chris Johnson is an excellent shot blocker that will be a lottery pick once he can put on some muscle. Bo Spencer has turned into a good point guard that can protect the ball, make plays on both ends, and knock down a jump shot for you. The biggest problem? That is it for the Tigers. They might as well go just five deep, because there is not too much on their bench. They end with Vanderbilt and Auburn. If they win both, they will be 15-1 in the SEC. The league may be down this year, but 15-1 in any conference is impressive.

MATCH-UPS OF THE WEEK:
3/3 - Florida State @ Duke: Duke tends to struggle against bigger, more athletic teams. What is FSU? Bigger, and more athletic than just about every team in the country.

3/4 - Marquette @ Pitt: Marquette was at a serious disadvantage size wise before they had to replace 5'11" Dominic James with 5'7" Mo Acker.

3/4 - Oklahoma @ Missouri: ESPN really blew this one. Two clashes of top ten teams on a Wednesday night, and neither lands on the worldwide leader (Pitt-Marquette is ESPN 2, while Oklahoma-Mizzou is not even on the family of networks).

3/5 - Dayton @ Xavier: Xavier looks to get revenge after Dayton smacked X in Dayton back in January.

3/6 - The WCC and CAA tournaments start on Friday.

The last weekend of the regular season ends with an absolutely fantastic line-up of games, headlined by UConn heading to Pitt to play for the Big East crown, while UNC hosts Duke for the ACC title. More on this weekend's games on Friday.