Bubble You Pleasure, Bubble Your Fun Part III

The major conference tournaments will be starting over the next three days, and seeing as the bubble is obscenely weak this year, the majority of the bubble determination is going to come in the form of middle-of-the-pack major conference teams playing each other in their conference tournament's early rounds. Be sure to check back here daily for complete analysis of everything bubble over the next week.

Sweating it out (record, RPI, SOS, top 50, top 100, road): Who has already lost?

- St. Mary's (25-6, 45, 160, 2-3, 3-4, 8-3):
Best Wins: Providence, Utah State, San Diego State
Worst Losses: Portland, Santa Clara

See here for St. Mary's analysis.

- Creighton (26-7, 39, 106, 3-2, 9-4, 8-4):
Best Wins: Northern Iowa, Dayton, George Mason
Worst Losses: Drake, Wichita State, Arkansas Little-Rock

What is going to doom the Bluejays is their early season losses to Arkansas Little-Rock and Nebraska. Both were on the road to top 100 RPI teams on shots hit in the last 10 seconds. In back-to-back games. If this profile read 28-5, 11-2 against the top 100 and 10-2 on the road, we would be saying much different things about the Bluejays. They are probably on the outside looking in right now.

- Davidson (25-7, 69, 165, 1-4, 1-4, 10-2):
Best Wins: West Virginia
Worst Losses: Citadel, Charleston (twice)

Davidson is out. I am giving them a courtesy post because I love Steph Curry. See here for more Davidson analysis.

Texas A&M (22-10, 29, 43, 4-5, 8-8, 4-5)
Best Wins: Missouri, Texas, LSU, Arizona
Worst Losses: Tulsa, Texas Tech

The Aggies lost to Texas Tech last night (thanks to an ungodly performance by Mike Singletary). A&M should still feel pretty safe. They have a number of good wins, especially in non-conference play, and they came into March on a six game winning streak. Lunardi had them as a nine before last night, which means that even with the loss, there are going to have to be a lot of teams that jump them in the next few days.


Today's Games:

Texas (21-10, 35, 28, 6-6, 8-9, 4-6):
Best Wins: UCLA, Villanova, Wisconsin, Oklahoma
Worst Losses: Arkansas

The Longhorns should be feeling pretty good about themselves. They have a good RPI and a good SOS, and six top 50 wins and four top 30 wins is nothing to sneeze at. The issue with Texas is that while they only have one really bad loss, they were not great in true road games and, well, they have so many losses. 11 losses is a pretty big number (they will be at 11 if they don't win the Big XII tourney). The win over Colorado probably sealed it, but beating fellow bubble team Kansas State could give them some breathing room come Sunday.

Kansas State (20-10, 75, 98, 3-5, 4-8, 5-5)
Best Wins: Missouri, Texas
Worst Losses: Iowa, Oregon

K-State probably needs to win at least two games in the Big XII Tournament for a shot at dancing. They beat Cleveland State in the non-conference slate, but followed that up with losses to Kentucky, Iowa, and Oregon. They did finish strong in the Big XII, winning 9 of 12 games to close out the year, but that may not be enough with that low of an RPI.

Oklahoma State (21-10, 25, 9, 3-9, 8-10, 4-6):
Best Wins: Siena, Texas A&M, Texas
Worst Losses: Baylor

I think the Pokes are in at this point as well. While they don't have many great wins, they have one loss to a team ranked higher than 35 in the RPI, and that was Baylor who is 76. The win yesterday was big, as they now get another shot at OU. 3-9 against the top 50 doesn't look good, but 8 top 100 wins is solid. A win against Oklahoma today would be huge.

Providence (19-12, 71, 45, 2-8, 6-11, 4-6):
Best Wins: Pitt, Syracuse
Worst Losses: Northeastern, Baylor

Providence beeat DePaul, but that win doesn't really help them. They are probably at the point where they need to beat Louisville to get into the dance.

Penn State (21-10, 64, 82, 5-9, 6-10, 5-6)
Best Wins: Michigan State, Illinois (x2), Purdue
Worst Losses: Rhode Island, Iowa

Penn State absolutely cannot lose to Indiana today, especially after losing to Iowa on the last day of the regular season. The Nittany Lions are right on the edge of the bubble, as either one of the last teams in or one of the first teams out. They need this game, and then probably one more (Purdue) just to be safe.

Michigan (18-12, 42, 10, 6-9, 9-11, 3-8)
Best Wins: UCLA, Duke, Illinois, Minnesota (x2)
Worst Losses: Maryland, Iowa

Michigan is another team right on the edge of the bubble (as is about half of the Big Ten). They get Iowa today, who has beaten them Wolverines this year. Michigan has a number of great wins and has played a very tough schedule (10th nationally, 20 games against the top 100, 15 against the top 50). Beilein seems to have a knack for getting the job done in March, and the Wolverines need him to work some magic this year. A win here is huge.

Minnesota (21-9, 41, 38, 6-7, 8-8, 3-6)
Best Wins: Louisville, Illinois
Worst Losses: Northwestern

The Gophers have a solid resume. Good RPI, no terrible losses (Northwestern knocked off a lot of people this year), and 6 wins against the top 50. But other than Louisville, they don't have much to show for their non-conference slate. If they can handle Northwestern in the first round, they should be close to a lock to go dancing.

Florida (22-9, 48, 84, 2-6, 8-8, 2-7)
Best Wins: Washington, South Carolina
Worst Losses: Mississippi State, Georgia

The win is the Gator's season finale against Kentucky was huge. Florida now has an easy road to the semifinals of the SEC tourney, getting Arkansas in the opener and Auburn if thy advance. Two more wins, and the Gators may play their way into a bid.

Miami (17-11, 52, 25, 2-6, 6-10, 4-6)
Best Wins: Wake Forest, Florida State
Worst Losses: NC State, Maryland, Georgia Tech

Miami really shot themselves in the foot with close road losses, especially to inferior opponents. But the Canes still have a great shot of getting a bid if they can win a couple games. They have Va Tech in the opening round, and with a win get another shot at Carolina.

Virginia Tech (17-13, 63, 23, 2-8, 5-11, 5-6)
Best Wins: Clemson, Wake Forest
Worst Losses: Georgia, Virginia, Seton Hall

The Hokies played their way out of the tournament down the stretch. They lost six of their last seven, and couldn't close out anyone this year. They need to make a serious run, but if they can get past UNC, they are all of a sudden back in the discussion.

Boston College (21-10, 57, 58, 4-4, 7-7, 5-5)
Best Wins: UNC, Duke, Florida State
Worst Losses: Harvard, St. Louis

Is there a team with more good wins and bad losses? The number of good wins means that if BC can get by Virginia today, they should be fine. Even with a loss today they may be in.

Maryland (18-12, 67, 28, 3-7, 7-10, 2-6)
Best Wins: UNC, Mich State
Wost Losses: Virginia, Morgan State

If they had beaten Virginia on the last day of the regular season, it would be a much different story for the Terps. But as it is, they are in trouble when it comes to the tournament. They absolutely need to beat NC State, and then probably need to win their second round game in order to have a serious chance.

Arizona (19-12, 54, 32, 6-8, 8-11, 2-9)
Best Wins: UCLA, Washington, Kansas
Worst Losses: Stanford, Washington State

Arizona looks to be in decent shape right now. They have a so-so RPI against a good schedule. Their bad losses were both on the road in conference (which, as I always say, is the most forgivable "bad loss") and they have three top 30 wins. The issue with the Wildcats is their lack of quality performances on the road, and the fact that they lost four of their last five. Lunardi has them in right now, but that will change with a loss to the Sun Devils today. Win and you're in.

UNLV (21-9, 56, 86, 4-4, 8-6, 6-6)
Best Wins: Louisville, BYU (x2), Utah, Arizona
Worst Losses: TCU, Colorado State

The Rebels have four top 25 wins and have won at BYU and at Louisville (without Wink Adams). The only reason they are on the bubble right now is road losses to TCU and Colorado State. Even with a loss to San Diego State today, I think UNLV will be dancing. But 9-8 outside of a power conference might be tough to look past. The game is in Vegas and will be essentially a home game. Win it, and end the speculation

San Diego State (19-8, 43, 66, 1-5, 4-7, 5-4)
Best Wins: Utah, UNLV (x2)
Worst Losses: Wyoming

SDSU has put a decent resume together. The only issue is their lack of quality wins, especially outside their conference. They do have a sweep of the Rebels, but they need to make that three in a row today, and then probably win their second round game as well if they want to get an at-large bid.

New Mexico (21-10, 58, 80, 4-4, 5-7, 6-6)
Best Wins: BYU, Utah, SDSU, UNLV
Worst Losses: Central Florida, Drake, Texas Tech, UTEP

New Mexico won eight of their last nine games, including against Utah, UNLV, and SDSU. It helped them clinch a share of the MWC crown, which is very impressive considering five of the nine teams in that league are in bubble contention. Lunardi has them in right now, but I think they still need to do some work. They have three terrible losses (UCF is 143, Drake is 166, and Tech is 128 in the RPI) as well as one to UTEP (79) and their best out of conference win is Mississippi. If they can beat Wyoming, I think their chances are a lot better. Get to the finals and they are in.

Temple (19-11, 40, 50, 1-5, 4-8, 9-8)
Best Wins: Tennessee
Worst Losses: Buffalo, Miami OH, Long Beach State, UMass, La Salle

Who am I kidding? Temple needs to get to at least the semi's, maybe the finals, to get an at-large bid. They have some terrible losses, but one thing to keep in mind - they played 17 of their 30 games on the road, and two more on a neutral court.

Utah State (26-4, 28, 137, 1-1, 2-3, 10-3)
Best Wins: Utah
Worst Losses: Boise State, Nevada

Utah State is not getting an at-large bid. They have 12 wins against teams that are 200+ in the RPI, another five against teams that are 150+, and they have one win of significance. If they had beaten St. Mary's, Nevada, and Boise State, and were coming into this tournament 29-1, then it would be a different story. But they didn't. Win the WAC.