Bubble You Pleasure, Bubble Your Fun Part II

The major conference tournaments will be starting over the next three days, and seeing as the bubble is obscenely weak this year, the majority of the bubble determination is going to come in the form of middle-of-the-pack major conference teams playing each other in their conference tournament's early rounds. Be sure to check back here daily for complete analysis of everything bubble over the next week.

Sweating it out (record, RPI, SOS, top 50, top 100, road): Who has already lost?

- St. Mary's (25-6, 45, 160, 2-3, 3-4, 8-3):
Best Wins: Providence, Utah State, San Diego State
Worst Losses: Portland, Santa Clara

See here for St. Mary's analysis.

- Creighton (26-7, 39, 106, 3-2, 9-4, 8-4):
Best Wins: Northern Iowa, Dayton, George Mason
Worst Losses: Drake, Wichita State, Arkansas Little-Rock

What is going to doom the Bluejays is their early season losses to Arkansas Little-Rock and Nebraska. Both were on the road to top 100 RPI teams on shots hit in the last 10 seconds. In back-to-back games. If this profile read 28-5, 11-2 against the top 100 and 10-2 on the road, we would be saying much different things about the Bluejays. They are probably on the outside looking in right now.

- Davidson (25-7, 69, 165, 1-4, 1-4, 10-2):
Best Wins: West Virginia
Worst Losses: Citadel, Charleston (twice)

Davidson is out. I am giving them a courtesy post because I love Steph Curry. See here for more Davidson analysis.

Today's Games: Georgetown and Cincinnati lost yesterday, which means we now stop talking about them. Today, the A-10, Big XII, Mountain West, Conference USA, and Pac-10 tournaments all kick off, but only the Big XII has any bubble games on today's docket.

Texas (20-10, 35, 28, 6-6, 8-9, 4-6):
Best Wins: UCLA, Villanova, Wisconsin, Oklahoma
Worst Losses: Arkansas

The Longhorns should be feeling pretty good about themselves. They have a good RPI and a good SOS, and six top 50 wins and four top 30 wins is nothing to sneeze at. The issue with Texas is that while they only have one really bad loss, they were not great in true road games and, well, they have so many losses. 11 losses is a pretty big number (they will be at 11 if they don't win the Big XII tourney). I think avoiding a loss to Colorado and getting a chance to seal up another with win over K-State in the quarters.

Oklahoma State (20-10, 25, 9, 3-9, 8-10, 4-6):
Best Wins: Siena, Texas A&M, Texas
Worst Losses: Baylor

I think the Pokes are in at this point as well. While they don't have many great wins, they have one loss to a team ranked higher than 35 in the RPI, and that was Baylor who is 76. Like Texas, I think a win seals it for the Cowboys. It at least gives them another shot at the Sooners.

Texas A&M (22-9, 29, 43, 4-5, 8-8, 4-5)
Best Wins: Missouri, Texas, LSU, Arizona
Worst Losses: Tulsa

A&M was in huge trouble back in Febraury after starting the conference season out 3-7. But they have reeled off six straight wins, including picking up W's against Texas and Missouri. They have non-conference win against LSU and Arizona which are as good as any other teams in the conference. I think they are in even if they lose to Texas Tech today.

Providence (18-12, 71, 45, 2-8, 6-11, 4-6):
Best Wins: Pitt, Syracuse
Worst Losses: Northeastern, Baylor

PC got screwed by DePaul's upset win over Cincinnati. Not only is that going to hurt Cincinnati's profile, it will make the Friar's two wins over the Bearcats less impressive. More importantly, it means that Providence will only get a chance to beat DePaul, which will have almost no positive effect on their tournament chances, before having to play Louisville in the quarters. Beating Cinci could have helped their profile, while beating DePaul is what every Big East team was able to do until yesterday. PC now may need to beat UConn to feel safe.

Notre Dame (16-13, 73, 37, 3-11, 5-12, 3-8) vs. Rutgers
Best Wins: Texas, Louisville, Georgetown
Worst Losses: St. John's

The Rutgers win doesn't do much, but it gets the Irish on track. Next up in West Virginia today. If Harangody and company can pull off this win, they might sneak back into the conversation. But for any real opportunity at the tourney, the Irish are probably going to need to win two more games.