Bubble You Pleasure, Bubble Your Fun

The major conference tournaments will be starting over the next three days, and seeing as the bubble is obscenely weak this year, the majority of the bubble determination is going to come in the form of middle-of-the-pack major conference teams playing each other in their conference tournament's early rounds. Be sure to check back here daily for complete analysis of everything bubble over the next week.

Sweating it out (record, RPI, SOS, top 50, top 100, road): Who has already lost?

- St. Mary's (25-6, 45, 160, 2-3, 3-4, 8-3):
Best Wins: Providence, Utah State, San Diego State
Worst Losses: Portland, Santa Clara
See here for St. Mary's analysis.

- Creighton (26-7, 39, 106, 3-2, 9-4, 8-4):
Best Wins: Northern Iowa, Dayton, George Mason
Worst Losses: Drake, Wichita State, Arkansas Little-Rock
What is going to doom the Bluejays is their early season losses to Arkansas Little-Rock and Nebraska. Both were on the road to top 100 RPI teams on shots hit in the last 10 seconds. In back-to-back games. If this profile read 28-5, 11-2 against the top 100 and 10-2 on the road, we would be saying much different things about the Bluejays. They are probably on the outside looking in right now.

- Davidson (25-7, 69, 165, 1-4, 1-4, 10-2):
Best Wins: West Virginia
Worst Losses: Citadel, Charleston (twice)
Davidson is out. I am giving them a courtesy post because I love Steph Curry. See here for more Davidson analysis.

Today's Bubble Games: Nothing too important on the bubble schedule.

- Cincinnati (17-13, 72, 32, 4-9, 7-11, 4-7) vs. DePaul
Best Wins: UNLV (road), UAB, Georgetown (twice), West Virginia
Worst Losses: South Florida, Seton Hall
Cincinnati was all set to put themselves into great position to earn a big. They were 17-11, 8-8 in the league, with just South Florida nd Seton Hall on their schedule. They then proceeded to lose both games, all but taking themselves out of bubble consideration. They probably need to get to the semi's, going through UConn, if they want a serious chance at dancing (you will notice a theme today).

- Georgetown (16-13, 49, 4, 4-9, 7-12, 3-7) vs. St. John's
Best Wins: UConn, Memphis, Syracuse, Villanova
Worst Losses: Seton Hall, St. John's
Georgetown, like Cincinnati, was set to make a serious run at a bid after they knocked off Villanova in Philly. They had four top 20 wins and no losses outside the top 100 (Seton Hall is 100). Until they played St. John's, where they blew a 15 point second half lead before losing in overtime. Again, a trip to the semi's is probably the minimum they need, beating Marquette and Villanova on the way there.

- Notre Dame (16-13, 73, 37, 3-11, 5-12, 3-8) vs. Rutgers
Best Wins: Texas, Louisville, Georgetown
Worst Losses: St. John's
Notre Dame is another team with just one bad loss, but they don't have enough good wins to justify getting into the dance right now. I think both ND and G'Town are good enough to be an NCAA tournament team, but both were just decimated by the rigors of the Big East - G'Town because of their inexperience and lack of depth, and ND because of their lack of size inside. Semi's or bust, baby.

- Butler (25-4, 18, 99, 2-1, 12-2, 12-3) vs. Cleveland State
Best Wins: Xavier, UAB
Worst Losses: Loyola IL, Wisconsin-Milwaukee
The only reason I am putting Butler here is because of what will happen if they lose the Cleveland State (very possible, they swept CSU by a total of four points, one of which was a buzzer-beater in OT). Butler is a lock, and is they lose, someone's bubble will burst.