2009 NCAA Tournament Bracket Breakdown: West Region

The last #1 seed came down to UConn and Memphis, and the Huskies ended up getting the nod over the Tigers. It probably won't make that much difference (I would rather play the winner of Cal-Maryland than the winner of Texas A&M-BYU personally, but avoiding Mizzou and playing Washington in the Sweet 16 is definitely an easier match-up).

Maybe it is because I am not that high on Memphis or UConn, but I think that this region is pretty open. I can see five, maybe six, teams making a run through the region, and none of them would really surprise me.

So let's quit talking about it and take a look at the West Region.





Favorite: Memphis

I still am not completely convinced that Memphis is a different team from the one that sleep-walked through the early part of the season, but one thing that is for sure is that this team can defend. Since the loss to Syracuse on December 20th, the Tigers have won 25 straight. 11 times, they have held their opponent under 50 points, and 7 more times they held them to 60 points or less. Granted, they don't exactly play the hardest schedule in C-USA, but in those 25 games, they have beaten Cincinnati, won at Tennessee and Gonzaga, and swept UAB and Tulsa. They have been winning games since switching Tyreke Evans to the point, but a lot of that has had to do with playing a weaker schedule. One thing to keep in mind while filling out your brackets - KenPom has Memphis listed as his #1 team.

And If They Lose: UConn

The two times the Huskies have won the national title, they have come out of the West. That's promising. Out of everyone on the UConn roster, they have a grand total of three postseason wins (all three of those wins were Jeff Adrien as a role player on the 2006 team that lost to George Mason). That, no so promising. I said it from the minute he hit the floor, Jerome Dyson's injury was going to be much more costly than people thought. UConn now has just one player that can create his own shot, and that is AJ Price. He is a sensational player and has made countless big shots for the Huskies this year, but if the Syracuse game proved anything, you need more than one person that can get you a big basket (UConn was never trailed in OT until the last sixth period, but they could not close out the Orange). It should not be as big of an issue against a teams that aren't great defensively, and UConn caught a break in that there are only two great defensive teams in their region. UConn should be looking at their third Final Four as long as they can avoid Purdue in the Sweet 16 and Memphis in the Elite 8.

Sweet 16 Sleeper (10 or lower): Cornell

This one might be a bit of a stretch (I don't really like anyone else). The Big Red get Mizzou and the Tigers 40-minutes-of-hell defense, which I actually think might be a good thing. For starters, they have an excellent point guard in Louis Dale, who won Ivy League player of the year as a sophomore last season. Why is that important? Because need a solid point guard who is not going to turn the ball over too much when you are playing a pressing team. The other key for Cornell is that they can flat out shoot the rock (41.5% from deep), led by Ryan Wittman, a 6'6" forward that averaged 18.5 ppg while shooting 42% from deep. The best way to beat a press is too attack it. If you break the press and take advantage of numbers at the other end by spreading the floor, Cornell should get a lot of good looks at the other end.

Final Four Sleeper (5 or lower): Purdue

The Boilermakers are so tough defensively (5th in efficiency). That is it. Chris Kramer can slow down just about anybody 1-on-1, which means that you are going to need to be more than just a one-man team to beat Purdue. But as a team, they are so fundamentally sound on the defensive end (help side rotations, getting to the charge spot, etc). The biggest issue for Purdue trying to make a tournament run? Athleticism. They may have to go through Washington, UConn, and Memphis to get there.

Seeded Too High/Seeded Too Low: No one

I think the committee did a pretty good job seeding this region. The only thing that really could be changed is sliding Washington down a slot and moving Purdue up to the fourth spot. In the end, the difference ends up being pretty big. Purdue is forced to play Northern Iowa in the first round, but instead of having the game played near them, Purdue has to go all the way to Portland to play. That is a big difference, considering you are playing Washington just a stone's throw away from their fan base in the second round (assuming seeds hold).

Player To Watch (8 and up): Jerel McNeal, Marquette

The Golden Eagles started out the season so promising, with the four-headed monster of McNeal, Wesley Matthews, Lazar Hayward, and the now-injured Dom James. Without James in the line-up much more of the leadership and ball-handling falls onto McNeal's shoulders. Now I love McNeal, I think he deserves to be in the conversation for first team all-america. But he has not played all that well since James went out. If McNeal doesn't wake up early in the dance, it will be a quick trip for Marquette.

Player To Watch (9 and lower): Greivis Vazquez, Maryland

Vazquez is a bit of an enigma (understatement of the decade). There are times when he is far and away the best player on the court (UNC comes to mind) but there are also times where he just does not show up (Duke anyone?). I don't think Cal has anyone on their team that can stop him from doing what he wants to do (Jerome Randle is too small, and neither Patrick Christopher or Theo Robertson are good defenders) offensively. If the Terps do beat Cal, he is going to become even more important playing the stingy Tigers defense. Bottom line - when Vazquez is focused and ready to play, he is one of the best guards in the country, both scoring and passing.

Best Match-up, First Round: #8 BYU vs. #9 Texas A&M

It is tough to argue against the fact that Texas A&M was the hottest team in the country before they dropped one to Texas Tech. The Aggies had won six in a row, and put themselves into the by dance by knocking off Missouri. BYU was also hot before their conference tourney loss to SDSU, winning five in a row and 10 of 11. While it should be fun to watch Lee Cummmard and Josh Carter go at it, the key to this game is going to be how Texas A&M can handle Jimmer Fredette. Fredette is a creative playmaker that can really get into the lane and create problems. If the Aggies can slow him down, they should be strong enough inside to take home the win.

Best Match-up, Potential: #1 UConn vs. #2 Memphis

This is the game that everyone will want to see. The last two teams in consideration for the last #1 seed square off in what would surely be a defensive battle for a trip to the Final Four. Huge front lines, incredible athletes, and two living legends patrolling the sidelines. This is the type of game March Madness is all about.

Upset Alert!!!: Missouri and Marquette

As I stated when discussing Cornell, I think the Big Red matches up pretty well with Missouri. As for Marquette, they will be facing a 30 win team with a legitimate big man in the middle (Gary Wilkinson). Who knows how good Utah State really is, but if they are a top 25 team, this may be the last time you see McNeal or Matthews in a Marquette jersey.

Anything Else?:

• If only they could play 1-on-1: Donald Sloan vs. Jimmer Fredette. Fredette has some really pretty moves.
• Four of the top eight defensive teams in the country play in this bracket - UConn, Memphis, Purdue, and Missouri.