Friday, February 6, 2009

Marcus Ginyard and Will Graves are out for the year

UNC's 108-91 win over Maryland on Wednesday overshadowed a couple pretty important items. First, Roy Williams has decided to sit Marcus Ginyard for the rest of the season, instead seeking a medical red-shirt so the senior swingman can play a full season in 2009-10. UNC loses even more back court depth as sophomore guard will Graves as been suspended for the rest of the season for failing to "maintain the standards we expect of a Carolina basketball player."

These two guys missing the rest of the year only reinforces the fact that this is not the same UNC team that everyone was handing the title to in the preseason.

Why did everyone love them? Because they were a #1 seed and Final Four team returning all five starters while adding three Mickey D's all-americans into the mix. Now, one of those starters and one of those rooks (Tyler Zeller broke his wrist in the second game of the year) are done for the season. Combine that with the suspension of Graves and the injury-slowed season Bobby Frasor is having, and the Heels look like a much different team than the one that was the first consensus #1 in the preseason polls.

The biggest issue for this team right now is depth. Originally considered a strength, the Heels now go just eight deep, which could be problematic for a team that likes to get out and run as much as UNC does.

That issue is magnified when you take into consideration two factors. For one, Frasor has not been good this year, especially of late. On the season he is shooting 24% from three, and he has hit (I kid you not) one three in ACC play. Larry Drew has been pretty good (albeit turnover prone - he averages 1.4 in 11 mpg, where Ty Lawson averages 1.8 in 28 mpg), but the issue with him is that he plays the same position as Lawson. Neither is all that effective off the ball. Lawson is a bit better because he can shoot this year, but why would you want him playing off the ball when he is the best in the country at what he does.

So that leaves one bench guy, Ed Davis, that has been effective this season. That is not good for a team whose entire philosophy is based on running, running, and running. The Heels have proven that they are not a team that is going to beat you in the half court. With a limited rotation and a smaller number of guys to cycle through, it is going to be that much harder for UNC to

But should the loss of these two guys really have that big of an impact? Ginyard has logged a grand total of 37 minutes this season and scored all of four points. Graves was getting playing time (11.2 mpg), but he wasn't exactly a game changer. He averaged 4.0 ppg, but was shooting 27.8% from three, had a 1:1.5 a/to ratio, and was not what you would call a lock down defender.

The Heels problems run deeper than that. For one thing, they still don't play enough perimeter defense (Ginyard could have helped there). They also are having big problems on the interior. Deon Thompson, who looked so good early in the season, is averaging just 7.4 ppg in ACC play. Why? Both he and Hansbrough are back-to-the-basket scorers that need space, and time, to make thier moves. If things are clogged in the paint, and there are only going to be so many post touches, who do you think is getting them? The reigning player of the year, perhaps?

All that said, we are still talking about a team that is 20-2 and ranked in the top 5 in the country. So while they haven't quite lived up to the ridiculous expectations put on them in the preseason, they are still without a doubt a Final Four and national title contender.

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