Monday, January 12, 2009

Monday Lay-up Lines

Although the last two Monday nights have featured top 25 battles in the Big East, tonight is the official beginning of ESPN's Big Monday, and we get a couple good ones. The festivities are kicked off at 7:00 in Louisville's Freedom Hall as the Cardinals (11-3, 2-0) take on the Fighting Irish of Notre Dame (12-3, 3-1).

This match-up provides a great contrast of playing styles. Louisville's bread and butter is their defense, but they play their best and win games when they are hitting threes. Notre Dame hangs their hat on their three point shooting and their production from Luke Harangody. They win games when they rebound and defend.

Louisville has had an up and down year to this point, but they are coming off of three straights wins, including Saturday's ugly victory at Villanova. Beyond three point shooting, the question for Louisville this year has been which Edgar Sosa shows up. He had his best game of the season (maybe his best game since the '07 tournament against Texas A&M) last week against Kentucky and followed that up with a solid performance versus South Florida. But he struggled against Villanova and almost cost them the game with a horrendous turnover late. He is probably their most talented perimeter player, but until he regains his confidence he is going continue to be inconsistent.

The Irish have won their last two in Big East play (Georgetown, @ Seton Hall), but they have been less than stellar in those wins and already have a loss at St. John's. Kyle McAlarney looks like he is finally back to his old self after struggling in the first few games that Harangody was back from pneumonia. I'm curious to see how Louisville will match-up with Harangody. The obvious answer is Samardo Samuels, but 'Gody kills players that are his size and build on the block. He's got unbelievable foot work, coordination, and quick feet for a guy as big as he is. I just don't see Samuels being able to stop him because Harangody will be able to go around him as well as get his little hook shot off unaltered. I think Earl Clark would almost be a better fit defending Harangody because of his length.

Whatever they do, the Cardinals do not want to relive what 'Gody did to them last season. The big fella went for 40 points and 12 boards in Freedom Hall, while also hitting the first three three's of his career.

It will also be interesting to see what Notre Dame does about Terrence Williams. His athleticism is going to make him a very difficult match-up. I think Mike Brey goes zone in this one, trying to make it difficult for Louisville to penetrate while allowing them to shoot some three's. That said, I also think Louisville is going to knock down their three's shooting at home, and that their athleticism will be too much for the Irish to handle.


The second game on the Big Monday slate is the Red River Rivalry as Texas (12-3, 1-0) heads to Norman to face Oklahoma (15-1, 1-0). Obviously, the story of this game is how to slow down Blake Griffin. This will be the first time that Griffin goes up against a front line with his size, strength, and athleticism. That said, the Longhorns seem like they struggle a bit when the go up against a team with a good big man (lost to Notre Dame, Michigan State, and Arkansas).

Texas is going to need AJ Abrams to wake up. In the last five games (in which Texas is 3-2), Abrams is shooting 19-66 from the floor, which is good for 29%.

If I'm Texas, I hope that they put Griffin on Connor Atchley, which would mean Atchley could float around the perimeter and pull Griffin away from the basket, opening up penetration and rebounding opportunities. If Blake Griffin is on Dexter Pittman, I think you have to attack him early. Griffin is a strong guy, but Pittman is huge and won't be pushed off the block. Pittman has played really well the last seven games (12.9 ppg and 7.0 rpg), but he can't play that effective minutes. I think you go at Blake Griffin early, maybe see if you can get him in foul trouble.

At the other end, I don't know how Texas should handle Griffin. Pittman is big enough, but Griffin will go right by him on the perimeter. Atchley will get abused on the block. I think the best match-up might be for Rick Barnes to put Damion James on him, and then send help defenders as needed.

As always, it is going to depend on who else shows up for Oklahoma. Willie Warren has been playing great of late, but the Sooners still need more than just Warren and Griffin (Warren had 35 and Griffin had 21 and 13 in the loss to Arkansas). I like the Longhorns on the road here. I think their front line is big enough to contain OU.

The only other relevant game tonight is at 7:30 as Davidson (11-3, 4-0) heads to Appalachian State (6-6, 3-1).

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