Sleepers and Early Exiters

With the NCAA tournament right around the corner and conference tournaments starting this week, let's take a look at what teams have cinderella potential and what favorites might fall victim to the glass slipper the first weekend.


CINDERELLAS:

Davidson: (23-6, 20-0), RPI 44, SOS 132

Season Summary - The Wildcats swung and missed in their marquee non-conference games against, going 0-5 against UCLA, UNC, Duke, NC State and Charlotte, which means they may need to win the Southern Conference tournament to reach the Big Dance (they did go undefeated in conference play, so the auto bid is well within reach).

Why They Can Win - If you include last year's loss to Maryland in the NCAA's, Davidson has hung tough with their last six major conference opponents - none of the losses by more than 12. They lost by four to UNC, six to Duke, and twelve to UCLA this season. Stephon Curry is a phenomenal scorer (25.3 ppg) and has proven he has the ability to carry this team, regardless of the competition he is facing. Can they finally pull out a victory against a quality opponent?

South Alabama: (23-5, 16-2), RPI 29, SOS 131

Season Summary - They beat Mississippi State and during non-conference play, and just missed upsetting Mississippi and Vanderbilt (both three point losses). Won the regular season Sun Belt crown by sweeping fellow bubble dweller Western Kentucky. They may have already locked up an at-large bid, but probably want to at least get to the conference finals just to be safe.

Why They Can Win - Outstanding guard play. Daon Merritt (5'8") and Dominic Tilford (5'10") are both lighting quick penetrators, with Tilford being more of a scorer (2nd on team at 13 ppg) and Merritt the playmaker (leads conference at 5.5 apg). The best of the bunch is 6'4" Demetric Bennett, who averages 19.9 ppg and 6 rpg. And they have already proven they can knock off the big boys.

Kent State: (24-6, 12-3), RPI 32, SOS 134

Season Summary - If they get the season sweep on the road against Akron on Sunday, they will wrap up the MAC regular season title. Wins against Illinois State and George Mason are nice, but they got smacked in their marquee non-conference games against UNC and Xavier.

Why They Can Win - They are a tough defensive team, giving up just 62.3 ppg, anchored by big man Haminn Quaintance in the middle, who leads the conference with 2.1 bpg. After bouncing around for three years (one year at Siena, one year at Redlands CC, one year sitting out), Al Harris seems to have finally found a home at KSU. He leads the team at 14.2 ppg and 4.2 apg. And they know how to win - this marks the tenth straight season with at least 20 wins.

Arizona: (16-12, 7-9), RPI 23, SOS 1

Season Summary - It has been an up-and-down year for the Wildcats, starting with the leave of absence from Head Coach Lute Olsen. They are battle tested after playing a murderous schedule this year, but it may be a moot point if they don't sweep the Oregon schools this week or have a good showing in the Pac-10 tourney. After starting conference play 5-3, they have dropped six of their last eight.

Why They Can Win - This team is loaded with talent. Freshman Jerryd Bayless is averaging 20.4 ppg and 4.3 apg despite being banged up this year and can fill it up with the best of them, as evidenced by four 30 point games. Chase Budinger (17.3 ppg, 5.3 rpg) and Jordan Hill (12.9 ppg, 8.0 rpg) are both very athletic forwards and difficult match-ups.

Virginia Commonwealth: (23-6, 15-3), RPI 43, SOS 146

Season Summary - They won the CAA by three games, which is a statement considering how good that league has been. They also had some nice non-conference wins including Maryland and Houston. They may be NIT bound, however, if they don't at least reach the finals of the CAA tournament.

Why They Can Win - Eric Maynor. If his performance last season in the NCAA's against Duke isn't enough to convince you, the numbers he's put up this year (17.8 ppg, 4.3 rpg, 5.3 apg) should. VCU is also a very tough defensive team, allowing more than 70 points just three times this season.

Illinois State: (21-8, 13-5), RPI 36, SOS 80

Season Summary - The Redbirds overcame a stretch where they lost four of nine in conference to finish in second place in the tough MVC. Their only good (read mediocre) non-conference wins came against Cincinnati and Wright State, so they probably need to win Arch Madness to reach the NCAA's. But Valley teams have been tough outs in recent years.

Why They Can Win - Although the MVC may only get one or two teams into the Big Dance this year, it is more a result of the extreme parody within the conference than the lack of quality teams. Sophomore Osiris Eldridge leads this bunch with averages of 16.3 ppg and 5.6 rpg.


EARLY EXITERS

Duke (25-3, 12-2), RPI 4, SOS 15

Season Summary - The Blue Devils have had a very good year, currently sitting just a half game behind UNC in the ACC standings. They had some pretty very wins in non-conference play against Wisconsin and Marquette, and won the first match-up with the Tar Heels. They are a great three point shooting team, and have looked dominant at time (just ask Wisconsin)

Why They May Lose - They rely too much on three's and do not have an post presence defensively. In their win against UNC, the Heels were without point guard Ty Lawson, and since that win the Dookies have struggled a bit, losing two in a row and nearly losing two more (NC State and Maryland). If they run into a team like Pitt, one that can defend all over the court and has some big bodies inside, they may be heading home early again. We will know a lot more about Duke after their rematch with UNC on Saturday.

Vanderbilt: (24-5, 9-5), RPI 10, SOS 37

Season Summary - After sputtering to a 2-4 start to open the SEC season, the Commodores have come on strong, winning seven in a row before falling to Arkansas, including a victory over then #1 Tennessee. Shan Foster and AJ Ogilvy provide as dominant of a 1-2 punch there is in the country, and until Saturday's loss they seemed to be peeking at the right time.

Why They May Lose - Despite all their successes, Vanderbilt has struggled mightly away from Nashville this year, going just 4-5, and just 2-5 in conference play. Ogilvy also has a tendency to get into foul trouble, playing a combined 33 minutes in their two games with Tennessee and just 34 minutes in the 2OT loss to Kentucky.

Georgetown (24-4, 14-3), RPI 8, SOS 54

Season Summary - Georgetown has had a great year, currently tied for first in the Big East with Louisville, whom they play to close out the regular season on Saturday. They are big up front with Roy Hibbert, DaJuan Summers, and Patrick Ewing Jr., and they play a very deliberate style that can throw teams out of sync.

Why They May Lose - Georgetown does not have great guard play. Jonathon Wallace can knock three's, but is slow defensively and has been turning the ball over a lot this year. Austin Freeman and Jeremiah Rivers are decent at best. But the really story with Georgetown is how inflated their record is compared to how they have played. They could easily have five more losses in conference this year (Hibbert's three against UConn, "the foul" against Villanova, the block against West Virginia, and the late comebacks against Marquette and Syracuse). Sooner or later their luck will run out.

Drake: (23-4, 15-3), RPI 15, SOS 55

Season Summary - The feel good story of the 2007-2008 campaign, the Bulldogs came out of nowhere to win the MVC conference by two games, racking up 21 straight victories at one point. This is a team of nobody's, epitomized by point guard Adam Emmenecker. The former walk-on (who by the way is a QUADRUPLE major with a 3.97 GPA) who scored 55 career points in three seasons coming into this year, averaged 7.7 ppg and 6.6 apg to lead this team to a top 15 ranking.

Why They May Lose - They seemed to have already peaked, as teams started to figure them out down the stretch - they went 3-3 in their last six. They are similar to Duke in that they rely heavily on the three, although they do have some great shooters. They also lack size and interior strength. As much as I love teams from the MVC, this team I don't know if this squad can make the Sweet 16.

Wisconsin: (24-4, 14-2), RPI 12, SOS 44

Season Summary - They have the inside track to the Big Ten title thanks to Purdue's loss at Ohio State, with both losses coming to the Boilermakers. Their other two losses are to Duke and Marquette, both very good teams. It looks like losing Alando Tucker wasn't big of a deal. Bo Ryan just keeps on winning.

Why They May Lose - This team is not very athletic at all. Center Brian Butch has never fully grown into player the Badgers thought they were getting. Their guard play is fairly weak, and their run through the Big Ten came in a year when the conference is watered down. But I think their biggest issue is the lack of a go-to scorer. Who is going to get them a bucket when they need?


TEAMS I'M HOLDING JUDGEMENT ON

Kansas State: (18-10, 9-6), RPI 45, SOS 19

Why I Can't Figure Them Out - They have all the makings of a team that looks like primed for an early exit. They've struggled on the road, they've struggled down the stretch, and they get inconsistent play from their guards. But in case you've been living under a rock the last three months, they also have a guy named Michael Beasley, who has a very good chance of being named the player of the year. And they've beaten Kansas. I wouldn't be surprised if this team lost in the first round, but I also wouldn't be surprised if Beasley gets hot and he carries them to the Final Four.

Indiana: (24-5, 13-3), RPI 16, SOS 55

Why I Can't Figure Them Out - Earlier this season I thought that they were a Final Four team. They are so talented - Eric Gordon can put up huge numbers, DJ White is a horse in the paint, Armon Bassett is a very unselfish point guard that doubles as a dead-eye shooter, and JaMarcus Ellis and Jordan Crawford are perfect fits for their roles. That was all before Kelvin Sampson was fired. Yes, they squeaked out wins against Northwestern and Ohio State, but that was before they gave up 100 and lost by 30 to Michigan State, a team that had been having all sorts of trouble scoring. So I guess the big question is which Indiana team is going to show up?