2008-2009 Record: 34-4, 13-3 ACC (1st)
Key Losses: Tyler Hansbrough (20.7 ppg, 8.1 rpg), Ty Lawson (16.6 ppg, 5.6 apg), Wayne Ellington (15.8 ppg, 4.9 rpg), Danny Green (13.1 ppg, 4.7 rpg)
Key Returners: Deon Thompson (10.6 ppg, 5.7 rpg), Ed Davis (6.7 ppg, 6.6 rpg)
Newcomers: David Wear, Travis Wear, Leslie McDonald, John Henson, Dexter Strickland
Ed Davis has the potential to be a star this season.(photo credit: Zimbio)
Can any team in the country say they lost more talent than the Tar Heels did? Not only are they losing the players, but in Ty Lawson and Tyler Hansbrough, they lost the guys that gave them their identity. That said, North Carolina brings in an absolutely loaded recruiting class, which combined with the stud freshman Roy Williams brought into the program last season, give him plenty of potential to work with.
Not to put too much pressure on him, but the key to this team's season is going to be sophomore point guard Larry Drew. Ty Lawson was the engine that made UNC go last year. His ability to push the ball in transition and break down a defender in the half court is a major reason that the Heels were able to take advantage of the talent they had on the offensive end of the floor. Can Drew do that same? He isn't as quick as Lawson (few are), but he has shown some ability to get into the paint and find an open man. His three point shot is about where Lawson's was at this point in his career as well - below average. Drew has a lot to prove this season, and his ability to run this team will be instrumental in how good the Heels end up being.
Another big change is going to be UNC's shooting ability. Last year, guys like Wayne Ellington, Danny Green, and Bobby Frasor were very good shooters. This season, the UNC wings are going to be far from great from the perimeter. Marcus Ginyard, who is back from the injury that forced him to redshirt last season, is an excellent player. He will defend, he will attack the rim, he will rebound, but he isn't an explosive offensive talent like an Ellington, or even a Green. The same can be said for junior Will Graves, who butted heads a bit with Williams last season.
As with every position on the court, UNC is going to rely heavily on their young guys on the wings. Dexter Strickland and Leslie McDonald are both highly touted freshman joining the program. Strickland is a combo guard. His size and athleticism make him dangerous on the wing, as he excels when he is able to get out in transition or when he is attacking the basket. He will be able to slide over and play some point as well. An improved shooter during his senior season, Strickland is still a ways from being considered a real threat from deep. McDonald is not quite the slasher that Strickland is, but he may be a better shooter (he is probably the Heels best shooter on the perimeter). One of the comparisons I have been seeing a lot of is that McDonald is Marcus Ginyard with a better jumper. Probably not a starter, but he is a guy that will provide a lot of good minutes for the Heels.
Williams has said that 6'10" freshman John Henson is going to see a lot of minutes on the perimeter. Henson could be an x-factor for UNC. He is a play maker that always seems to be around the ball - whether it is making a backdoor pass for a lay-up, blocking a shot, grabbing a rebound and going coast-to-coast. The consensus seems to be that Henson is a 6'10" combo forward with a 7'1" wing span and the perimeter skills of a guard. If he develops this season, Henson has the chance to be a weapon in UNC's full court attack.
The Heels inside play has a bunch of question marks as well. Back are Deon Thompson and Ed Davis. Davis has the potential to be a game-changing big man. He is long, athletic, and aggressive on the boards. Davis also provides the Heels with a shot blocking presence they have not had in a long time. His biggest problem right now is that he has not proven the ability to score with his back to the basket. That said, a breakout season, a la Cole Aldrich, out of Davis has been predicted by many. Thompson is a known commodity. He doesn't really do anything great, but he is a solid all-around post. He is a decent scorer, either backing his man down or facing him up. He'll grab some rebounds. He'll play some decent post defense. With the youth on the Heels front line, Williams is going to count on Thompson for leadership and consistency.
The other three guys up front will be Tyler Zeller and David and Travis Wear. Zeller had a bit of a disappointing freshman season, as a broken wrist suffered in the season's second game kept him out for the bulk of the season. But Zeller has talent. He is a legitimate seven footer, but his strength on the offensive end of the court is his perimeter game. He can shoot it (and may actually be the best shooter on the roster) and he can put the ball on the floor and go by an opposing center. According to reports, Zeller has been playing with the first team over Davis in early season practices.
The 6'9" Wear twins are similar to Zeller. The two are essentially the same player, with David being better offensively and Travis better defensively. Both are excellent with the ball in their hands, shooting the ball from the perimeter and using the bounce to get to the basket. The problem is that neither are good with their back to the basket.
In fact, none of the UNC bigs are that good with their back to the basket, which is why there may be a change to the UNC offense this season. Last year, the Heels looked inside to Hansbrough quite a bit, as Pyscho T was able to score with two and three defenders draped over him in the post. No one on the UNC roster can play like that this year. With how good most of the UNC bigs are facing up with the ball in their hands, Roy will look run even more of a spread attack. The two bigs will operate at the high post a lot, allowing more space for guys to slash to the rim because players like the Wears, Thompson, Zeller, and even Henson are a threat from 17 feet.
Outlook: UNC is going to be raw this season, as they have a ton of youth and inexperience on the roster. Even senior leader Marcus Ginyard is coming off of a season where he played just three games. The Heels are still going to run, but their secondary break is going to be a bit different. Instead of dumping the ball in to Hansbrough and allowing him to score or kick out to a shooter, the Heels are going to look to get their touches in the paint via penetration from the wings. An area where UNC should be better this season is defensively. Davis, Henson, and Zeller are all capable shot blockers, and guys like Strickland, McDonald, Ginyard, and Drew are defensive improvements on the perimeter. In short, UNC has the talent to be a Final Four team, but whether or not these kids develop into a group that can make it that far remains to be seen.
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