Massive day on the bubble

Saturday is Championship Saturday. Sunday is Selection Sunday.

So does that make it Bubble Friday?

Today is the make or break day for a large number of teams currently parked on the bubble. Come tomorrow, we could have a pretty good idea about what the NCAA Tournament field will look like.

While you enjoy your lunch, take a peak at what today's games mean:

1:00 pm: Georgia vs. Alabama: This could very well end up being a play-out game for the Bulldogs and the Crimson Tide. The general consensus seems to be that Georgia is in better position than Alabama right now.

2:00 pm: Clemson vs. Boston College: This is a play-out game, as both the Tigers and the Eagles are sitting squarely on the bubble. At most, only one is making the tournament.

2:00 pm: Michigan vs. Illinois: Illinois is most likely in. Michigan will be nervous heading into Selection Sunday with a loss today.

6:30 pm: No. 7 Purdue vs. Michigan State: The Spartans are probably in solid shape right now, but with big thieves still alive, a win today could just about lock up a bid.

6:30 pm: Memphis vs. East Carolina: The Tigers are a bit of a longshot to make the NCAA Tournament even if they make it to the finals of the Conference USA tournament.

7:00 pm" No. 2 Kansas vs. Colorado: The Buffaloes knocked off Kansas State yesterday, putting themselves in pretty good NCAA position. There is still doubt, however, which could get erased with a win today.

8:55 pm: No. 13 Wisconsin vs. Penn State: The Nittany Lions still have quite a bit of work to do if they are to make the NCAA Tournament this season. Beating Wisconsin is a good way to start.

9:00 pm: No. 8 BYU vs. New Mexico: The Lobos are is pretty bad shape and, in all likelihood, need to get the MWC's autobid. That said, three wins over BYU is a lot more impressive than anything most bubble teams have to offer.

9:00 pm: No. 15 Arizona vs. USC: If the Kevin O'Neill-vs.-Arizona Booster storyline isn't enough, the Trojans have an outside chance to make the NCAA Tournament if they continue to win games.

9:00 pm: No. 17 Utah State vs. San Jose State: It feels weird saying that Utah State is on the bubble given their record and other teams they are competing for an at-large berth with, but do to an overwhelming lack of quality wins, the Aggies will want to win the autobid just to feel safe.

9:00 pm: Virginia Tech vs. Florida State: Virginia Tech, after losing two straight games in their post-Duke hangover, needs to beat the Seminoles if they want to feel safe on Sunday.

9:00 pm: Richmond vs. Rhode Island: The Spiders may not be quite as safe as you think. A loss to URI will force Richmond to sweat Sunday out.

10:00 pm: Weber State @ St. Mary's: This is actually a regular season game. A win doesn't help the Gaels that much, but a loss would probably kill any at-large hope they had.

11:30 pm: Washington vs. Oregon: The Huskies all but locked up a bid with their win yesterday, but after knocking off UCLA, Oregon might be the most dangerous team in this tournament to steal a bid.

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Bubble You Pleasure, Bubble Your Fun Part IV

The major conference tournaments will be starting over the next three days, and seeing as the bubble is obscenely weak this year, the majority of the bubble determination is going to come in the form of middle-of-the-pack major conference teams playing each other in their conference tournament's early rounds. Be sure to check back here daily for complete analysis of everything bubble over the next week.

Sweating it out (record, RPI, SOS, top 50, top 100, road): Who has already lost?

- St. Mary's (25-6, 45, 160, 2-3, 3-4, 8-3):
Best Wins: Providence, Utah State, San Diego State
Worst Losses: Portland, Santa Clara

See here for St. Mary's analysis.

- Creighton (26-7, 39, 106, 3-2, 9-4, 8-4):
Best Wins: Northern Iowa, Dayton, George Mason
Worst Losses: Drake, Wichita State, Arkansas Little-Rock

What is going to doom the Bluejays is their early season losses to Arkansas Little-Rock and Nebraska. Both were on the road to top 100 RPI teams on shots hit in the last 10 seconds. In back-to-back games. If this profile read 28-5, 11-2 against the top 100 and 10-2 on the road, we would be saying much different things about the Bluejays. They are probably on the outside looking in right now.

- Davidson (25-7, 69, 165, 1-4, 1-4, 10-2):
Best Wins: West Virginia
Worst Losses: Citadel, Charleston (twice)

Davidson is out. I am giving them a courtesy post because I love Steph Curry. See here for more Davidson analysis.

Texas A&M (22-10, 29, 43, 4-5, 8-8, 4-5)
Best Wins: Missouri, Texas, LSU, Arizona
Worst Losses: Tulsa, Texas Tech

The Aggies lost to Texas Tech last night (thanks to an ungodly performance by Mike Singletary). A&M should still feel pretty safe. They have a number of good wins, especially in non-conference play, and they came into March on a six game winning streak. Lunardi had them as a nine before last night, which means that even with the loss, there are going to have to be a lot of teams that jump them in the next few days.

Kansas State (21-11, 81, 98, 3-6, 4-9, 5-5)
Best Wins: Missouri, Texas
Worst Losses: Iowa, Oregon

K-State lost to Texas last night. They are out. The RPI is too low and they just don't have enough in their out of conference schedule.

Providence (19-13, 78, 45, 2-9, 6-12, 4-6):
Best Wins: Pitt, Syracuse
Worst Losses: Northeastern, Baylor

Providence beat DePaul, but that win doesn't really help them. They really needed to beat Louisville last night to have a legitimate chance at a bid. Now, they are probably on the outside looking in. They only have one loss outside the top 100, but two top 50 wins and a bunch of "good losses" does not an NCAA bid make.

Miami (17-11, 61, 25, 2-6, 6-10, 4-6)
Best Wins: Wake Forest, Florida State
Worst Losses: NC State, Maryland, Georgia Tech

Believe it or not, the Canes actually did have a chance at earning bid. Until they lost to Virginia Tech yesterday. The U had to play their way into the field, and losing in the first round of the conference tournament isn't going to get you there.

Arizona (19-13, 58, 32, 6-9, 8-12, 2-9)
Best Wins: UCLA, Washington, Kansas
Worst Losses: Stanford, Washington State

Yesterday, I said win and you're in. Arizona lost. They still have a solid resume, but 13 losses is a lot of losing. They are in a similar position as they were last year, except their schedule strength is not as good. The Wildcats will truly be sweating it out, as they need bubble teams to lose. How big does that Butler loss look in Tuscon now?

UNLV (21-9, 66, 86, 4-4, 8-6, 6-6)
Best Wins: Louisville, BYU (x2), Utah, Arizona
Worst Losses: TCU, Colorado State

So UNLV lost to SDSU, dropping their RPI by 10 spots. This could be a huge blow to the Rebels tourney chances. They now have eight losses to MWC foes, including one to TCU and one to Colorado State. But looks at some of their wins - BYU, Utah, and Louisville are all top 25 RPI teams, and UNLV won at BYU and Louisville (the latter without Wink Adams). I think UNLV has a bit of an advantage on Arizona and Creighton, other teams right on the edge waiting out championship week, but if teams like Virginia Tech and Penn State keep winning, the Rebels may be NIT bound.

New Mexico (21-11, 65, 80, 4-4, 5-7, 6-6)
Best Wins: BYU, Utah, SDSU, UNLV
Worst Losses: Central Florida, Drake, Texas Tech, UTEP

New Mexico lost to Wyoming last night. They are probably out of contention for a bid at this point.


Today's Games:

Texas (22-10, 35, 28, 6-6, 9-9, 4-6):
Best Wins: UCLA, Villanova, Wisconsin, Oklahoma
Worst Losses: Arkansas

The Longhorns are in. They have a good RPI and a good SOS, and six top 50 wins and four top 30 wins is nothing to sneeze at. The issue with Texas is that while they only have one really bad loss, they were not great in true road games and, well, they have so many losses. 11 losses is a pretty big number (they will be at 11 if they don't win the Big XII tourney). The win over Colorado probably sealed it, but beating fellow bubble team Kansas State puts them in. They get Baylor today in the Big XII semi's.

Oklahoma State (22-10, 18, 9, 4-9, 9-10, 4-6):
Best Wins: Siena, Texas A&M, Texas
Worst Losses: Baylor

Oklahoma State is in after beating Oklahoma. they are 18th in the RPI, have not lost to anyone ranked lower 59 in the RPI, and just once to a team lower than 33. In. The Pokes get Mizzou today.

Penn State (22-10, 67, 82, 5-9, 6-10, 5-6)
Best Wins: Michigan State, Illinois (x2), Purdue
Worst Losses: Rhode Island, Iowa

Penn State beats Indiana yesterday and advances to face Purdue, but the win actually hurt Penn State in the RPI. Penn State is right on the edge. They have four wins against the top three in the Big Ten, but they also have 10 losses and have not beaten anyone of significance in their out of conference schedule. A win probably gets them a bid, and a close loss might as well. If they get blown out, the Nittany Lions will be holding their breath.

Michigan (19-12, 43, 10, 6-9, 9-11, 3-8)
Best Wins: UCLA, Duke, Illinois, Minnesota (x2)
Worst Losses: Maryland, Iowa

The Wolverines did what they needed to do by beating Iowa. Now they get Illinois, and a win against the Illini would probably lock up a bid for Michigan.

Minnesota (22-9, 36, 38, 6-7, 9-8, 3-6)
Best Wins: Louisville, Illinois
Worst Losses: Northwestern

Minnesota knocked off Northwestern yesterday to move themselves up five spots in the RPI. The Gophers should be feeling pretty good about themselves right now. They don't have many bad losses, and have a win over the team that looks destined for the #1 overall seed in Louisville. They are probably in right now, but a win over Michigan State this afternoon wouldn't hurt.

Ohio State (20-10, 35, 31, 4-9, 8-10, 4-6):
Best Wins: Butler, Purdue, Minnesota
Worst Losses: Northwestern

I think Ohio State is already in. They are 35 in the RPI, and their only loss outside the top 50 is at Northwestern, where Purdue and Michigan State also fell. They have some quality wins, and finished in the top five in a conference that may get eight teams into the dance. Their game against Wisconsin today will see the winner lock up a bid.

Wisconsin (19-11, 40, 14, 4-9, 9-10, 4-7)
Best Wins: Ohio State, Illinois
Worst Losses: Iowa, Northwestern

Wisconsin is just about in the same position as Ohio State, but they probably are a little further down on the bubble. The loss to Iowa is bad, and they don't have as many good wins as OSU, but the Badgers should be in right now.

Florida (23-9, 46, 84, 2-6, 8-8, 2-7)
Best Wins: Washington, South Carolina
Worst Losses: Mississippi State, Georgia

Florida go the win they needed over Arkansas yesterday. They could still use a victory over Auburn today. The Gators don't have the strongest of resumes. An RPI of 48 is nice, but 2-6 vs. the top 50 and 2-7 on the road isn't. Neither is 9-7 in the SEC. A win over a streaking Auburn team could be enough to push the Gators in.

South Carolina (22-8, 49, 92, 1-5, 7-7, 5-6)
Best Wins: Florida, Baylor
Worst Losses: Vanderbilt, Mississippi State, Charleston

The Gamecocks are tough to figure out. They have three pretty bad losses and just one top 50 win (Florida, which wasn't a top 50 win until they got a bump today), but they did finish tied for the SEC East championship. Right now, I think that they are out (can you really put them in over a team like Ohio State or Wisconsin or Arizona?) but they absolutely can play their way in over those teams with a run through the tourney.

Virginia Tech (18-13, 56, 23, 3-8, 6-11, 5-6)
Best Wins: Clemson, Wake Forest
Worst Losses: Georgia, Virginia, Seton Hall

The Hokies got a huge win over fellow bubble dweller Miami yesterday to keep themselves in contention for a bid. They have been the Heartbreak Kids season, and really for the last two or three years. It would be great to see them beat North Carolina and get a chance to go dancing.

Boston College (22-10, 56, 58, 4-4, 7-7, 5-5)
Best Wins: UNC, Duke, Florida State
Worst Losses: Harvard, St. Louis

BC beat Virginia and should be all set. They get Duke today with a chance lock it up.

Maryland (18-12, 61, 28, 3-7, 7-10, 2-6)
Best Wins: UNC, Mich State
Wost Losses: Virginia, Morgan State

Maryland got a nice win against NC State yesterday to keep their hopes alive. They still have a lot or work to do, however. Beating Wake tonight would be a good way to start, but that still may not be enough.

San Diego State (20-8, 43, 66, 1-5, 5-7, 5-4)
Best Wins: Utah, UNLV (x3)
Worst Losses: Wyoming

Beating a team three times is very difficult. The Aztecs did just that last night, knocking off the Running Rebels for the third time this season and giving their tournament chances a huge boost. They get BYU tonight, and a win against the Cougars probably gets SDSU a bid.

Temple (19-11, 39, 50, 1-5, 4-8, 9-8)
Best Wins: Tennessee
Worst Losses: Buffalo, Miami OH, Long Beach State, UMass, La Salle

Temple picked up a win last night that they needed, but the Owls still probably need to beat Xavier today to have a real chance. Remember, they played 17 of their 30 games on the road, and two more on a neutral court.

Utah State (26-4, 28, 137, 1-1, 2-3, 10-3)
Best Wins: Utah
Worst Losses: Boise State, Nevada

Utah State is not getting an at-large bid. They have 12 wins against teams that are 200+ in the RPI, another five against teams that are 150+, and they have one win of significance. If they had beaten St. Mary's, Nevada, and Boise State, and were coming into this tournament 29-1, then it would be a different story. But they didn't. Win the WAC.
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Wednesday Lay-up Lines: UConn-Marquette Highlights A Night Full Of Games With Bubble Implications

UConn (25-2, 13-2) will travel to Marquette (23-4, 12-2) in a showdown for first place in the Big East. Marquette is currently a half-game behind UConn and Louisville in the Big East standings (and a half game up on Pitt), but the Golden Eagles will play each of those three teams in the next ten days. This is going to be a very interesting match-up to watch. Marquette has no big men. At all. But they have one of the best backcourts in the country (especially when you add in Lazar Hayward to the mix). UConn, on the other hand, has a big front line, but is hurting for depth at the guard position with Jerome Dyson out for the season. This game is going to come down to one simple thing - who can take advantage of the mismatch. Will UConn beat Marquette on the interior, or will the Marquette's guards be too much for UConn to handle defensively? I think the latter will be true, as Marquette will almost assuredly go small, forcing Thabeet to come out and guard a perimeter player (or forcing Calhoun to go zone, which he never wants to do). For all you NBA scouts out there, be ready to watch Thabeet go against a pick-and-roll.

While a battle atop the Big East is almost common place at this point, there is a ton of other good basketball on the schedule for tonight:

• 7:00 PM: Rutgers (10-17, 1-13) @ Notre Dame (15-11, 6-8): The Irish absolutely cannot lose this one.
• 7:00 PM: Dayton (23-4, 9-3) @ Rhode Island (20-8, 9-4): Rhode Island is in fourth in the A-10, but just a game out of first place behind Xavier.
• 7:00 PM: Kentucky (19-8, 8-4) @ South Carolina (19-6, 8-4): The top of the SEC plays each other quite a bit over the last two weeks of the season. With no team really asserting themselves as a lock (aside from LSU), look for someone to drop out of the bubble picture.
• 7:30 PM: Virginia Tech (16-10, 6-6) @ Clemson (22-4, 8-4): Virginia Tech might be playing their way off of the bubble after losing three in a row and five of seven. They do get some chances at statement games as they have Duke, UNC, and Florida State after Clemson, although at this point in the season, wins may be more important for Va Tech than game against the top of the ACC.
• 8:00 PM: Villanova (22-5, 10-4) @ DePaul (8-19, 0-14): Will DePaul get a win in the Big East?
• 8:30 PM: Iowa (14-13, 4-10) @ Michigan State (21-5, 11-3): The Spartans are clinging to a one game lead in the Big Ten.
• 9:00 PM: Duke (22-5, 8-4) @ Maryland (17-9, 6-6): Maryland may have played their way into the tournament, but a win tonight against Duke or next week Clemson could help ensure their standing on the right side of the bubble.
• 9:00 PM: Mississippi State (17-10, 7-5) @ Tennessee (16-10, 7-5): Even with a mediocre record playing in a mediocre conference, most pundits have Tennessee easily in the tourney because of the difficulty of their schedule. The story will be different if they keep losing.
• 9:00 PM: Kansas State (19-8, 7-5) @ Missouri (23-4, 10-2): Missouri will win the Big XII if they win out. That will be tough, as they still play Kansas and Oklahoma after KSU, but the Tigers hold their destiny in their hands. Kansas State, on the other hand, has won seven of eight in the Big XII. They have two excellent scoring guards in Denis Clemente and Jacob Pullen, but those two have a tendency to turn to ball over. They cannot afford to against Missouri's press.
• 9:30 PM: Texas Tech (12-15, 2-10) @ Texas (18-8, 7-5): The Longhorns still have some work to do to ensure a berth in the tourney, although playing the Pat Knight-less Red Raiders shouldn't pose too much of a challenge.
  
• 10:00 PM: UNLV (20-7, 8-5) @ Utah (19-7, 10-2): Big game out in the MWC, especially for UNLV, who needs a couple wins to improve their tournament stock.
• 10:30 PM: Oklahoma State (17-9, 6-6) @ Colorado (9-17, 1-11): The Cowboys can not afford to lose this one.
  

There is also some good mid-major action tonight:

• 7:00 PM: UNC Greensboro (4-23, 3-15) @ Davidson (22-6, 15-2): Davidson probably needs to win the SoCon tourney at this point, so it is a moot point saying that this is a must win game.
• 7:00 PM: VCU (19-9, 12-4) @ James Madison (18-11, 9-7); William & Mary (9-18, 4-12) @ Old Dominion (18-9, 10-6); 7:00 PM: George Mason (18-9, 11-5) @ UNC Wilmington (7-23, 3-13); Northeastern (17-10, 11-5) @ Drexel (15-11, 10-6); 7:30 PM: Hofstra (19-9, 10-6), Georgia State (10-18, 7-9): The CAA winner is going to come from one of the team's playing here.
• 8:00 PM: Navy (18-9, 7-5) @ American (19-7, 11-1)
  

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Wednesday Lay-up Lines: The Night of the Bubble Watch

Nine top 25 teams take the court tonight, but the games that matter tonight happen below the realm of the ranked. By my count, there are 13 games tonight that will significantly impact the bubble. And that isn't counting the LSU or Utah State cakewalks games.

What is interesting about tonight's games is that the majority of the important bubble games are going to be happening in the big six conferences. If you believe Joe Lunardi (which you should, the guy is a god at what he does), then you know that only eight conferences are projected to get at-large bids this year - the big six plus the A-10 and MWC. Of course, that could change if a team like Utah State or Davidson loses in their conference tourney, but assuming they don't, this year will be four below the average number of conferences to get multiple bids since the tourney expanded to 64/65 teams.

Enough about the tourney, let's get into tonight's bubble games (all RPI numbers from RealTimeRPI.com):

• 7:00 PM: Miami (15-9, 4-7) @ Florida State (19-6, 6-4): This game is huge for both teams. Florida State has a ridiculous gauntlet after Miami (Va Tech twice, @ BC, @ Duke, Clemson), and dropping a home game to the 10th place team in the ACC would be a huge blow to their resume. Miami, on the other hand, is almost to the point where they cannot afford another loss. Their four games after FSU are very winnable, which means that running the table is not out of the question. With an RPI that is only ok (50, although their SOS is 12), Miami may need to get above .500 in league play to lock up a bid.
• 7:00 PM: Notre Dame (14-10, 5-7) @ West Virginia (17-8, 6-6): The Mountaineers are almost to the point that they can stamp their ticket. They have an RPI of 16 (and a KenPom rating in the top 10), and the 21 point smack down they put on Villanova gave them a signature win. Notre Dame, on the other hand, was pretty much dead in the water before they whooped up on Louisville by 33. After beating South Florida over the weekend, the Irish have worked their way back into contention. With an RPI as low as 75, the Irish will have their work cut out for them, but beating WVU on the road would go a long way towards an at-large bid.
• 7:00 PM: Georgetown (13-10, 4-8) @ South Florida (8-16, 3-9): Georgetown is just about finished. They have good computer numbers (thanks to the toughest schedule in the nation), but unless they can get to .500 in the Big East, Hoya fans can probably resign themselves to the NIT.
• 7:00 PM: Alabama (13-11, 3-7) @ Florida (19-6, 6-4): I hope Gator fans aren't feeling too comfortable just yet. While they have a pretty record, they are just 47 in the RPI (and have a SOS of 98). They have also won just two games on the road, at Auburn and Vanderbilt. Oh yeah, and the Gators still have to play LSU, Tennessee, Kentucky, and Mississippi State. Nick Calathes and company need to string together some wins or they may be looking at a second straight NIT, especially considering how down the SEC is.
• 7:00 PM: Penn State (18-8, 7-6) @ Illinois (21-5, 9-4): At this point, the Illini are playing for seeding (and for the Big Ten regular season - they are a game out after MSU's loss). Penn State is just about done. They have an RPI of 72 and still get Illinois again after this and have to head to Ohio State.
• 7:00 PM: Citadel (17-10, 12-4) @ Davidson (22-4, 15-1): Steph Curry is a game-time decision with a bad ankle tonight. Curry or not, Davidson is probably at the point where they must win out and then make it to the finals of the SoCon tourney for a shot at an at-large.
• 7:30 PM: Providence (16-9, 8-5) @ Louisville (19-5, 10-2): As of today, Lunardi has the Friars in (as his last team). That could change over the next five games, however, as PC has to face three top 20 RPI teams as well as Notre Dame, who will need the win just as badly.
  
• 8:00 PM: Virginia Tech (16-8, 6-4) @ Virginia (8-13, 2-8): The Hokies are in for now. But they have a brutal schedule coming up after UVa (FSU twice, @ Clemson, Duke, UNC), which makes this game so important. Unfortunately, they will be playing shorthanded as Jeff Allen's bird call got him suspended for a game.
• 8:00 PM: South Carolina (18-5, 7-3) @ Mississippi State (16-9, 6-4): At this point, MSU is here to play spoiler. They've beaten exactly no one (best win, RPI # 65 Western Kentucky) and only played three teams with RPI's in the top 50 (LSU twice at #40 and Cinci at #48). South Carolina, on the other haand, still has a really good shot at making the dance. They have an RPI of 42 and are tied for first in the more-competitive-than-you-think SEC East (Tennessee, Kentucky, and Florida also inhabit the division). But, as is with every team on the bubble, they need to keep the winning going.
• 9:00 PM: Ohio State (17-6, 7-5) @ Northwestern (13-10, 4-8): The Wildcats are pretty much out of the picture, while OSU should be all but in (Lunardi has them as a five seed). The Buckeyes are being slept on this season. They have just two losses outside the RPI top 16 (at #29 Wisconsin and at #36 Minnesota) and they have beaten Miami, Notre Dame, Butler, Purdue, and Minnesota. And remember, most of this was done without David Lighty in the line-up.
• 10:00 PM: UNLV (19-6, 7-4) @ Wyoming (14-10, 3-7): Believe it or not, there are five MWC teams with a realistic shot of reaching the tourney. Lunardi has UNLV in right now, but with games left against BYU, Utah, and SDSU, the Rebels really need to pick up a win here.
  

The rest of the games on tonight's schedule:

• 7:30 PM: Georgia Tech (10-14, 1-10) @ Wake Forest (19-4, 6-4)
• 8:00 PM: Utah (18-7, 9-2) @ Colorado State (8-17, 3-8)
• 8:00 PM: Tennessee (16-8, 7-3) @ Mississippi (13-11, 4-6)
• 8:00 PM: NC State (14-9, 4-6) @ UNC (23-2, 9-2)
• 8:00 PM: SMU (7-16, 1-9) @ Memphis (22-3, 10-0)
• 8:00 PM: Butler (22-3, 13-2) @ Milwaukee (14-11, 9-6)
• 8:00 PM: Iowa State (13-12, 2-8) @ Kansas (20-5, 9-1)
• 8:05 PM: LSU (21-4, 9-1) @ Arkansas (13-10, 1-9)
• 9:05 PM: Cal St. Bakersfield (6-19, 1-13) @ Utah State (24-2, 12-1)
• 10:00 PM: St. Joe's (14-10, 7-3) @ St. Louis (15-10, 6-5)
  

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