Marquette's win shows lack of relevance in bubble talk

The bubble.

For the past month, that is all anyone can talk about.

If the season ended today, would Team X be in? What does Team Y have to do to become a lock? Team Z just cemented their trip to the Big Dance with that win.

Honestly, the bubble isn't for me. I haven't done a bubble watch in two years. I haven't tried to predict a bracket prior to Selection Sunday in that time. If you follow me on twitter, than you probably know that whenever I am asked what a team has to do to get into the tournament, I say win games and don't lose games.

Don't get me wrong, I'm not hating on the process. I understand how much fun it is to follow. I get the story lines and the drama that it creates. Its the perfect build up to the conference tournaments and March Madness. People eat it up.

Its just not for me. Because once Selection Sunday rolls around, the "bubble" really consists of a handful of spots for two handfuls of teams.

Marquette head coach Buzz Williams isn't a fan either. When asked after his team's 67-61 win over West Virginia about the consensus that the Golden Eagles had locked up a bid, Williams essentially said "phooey".


"I went out early again tonight and I was looking for someone on the selection committee," Williams said. "I didn't see anybody. I thought they would be the best dressed here. I saw guys from Wall Street but I didn't see anybody from the selection committee."

"You get so caught up in the melodrama of what happens during this time of the year that you have to win this, you don't have to win that, ESPN says this, Fox Sports says that. I don't think any of 'em know. I think the best thing is to continue to win because the teams that are continuing to play this late in March are typically going to play next week."

And he's right.

The teams that win late tend to be the teams that get in. Lose down the stretch, and you'll be prepping for the NIT. Focusing on what kind of implications a win or a loss has on tournament standing only creates distraction and unneeded pressure on the task at hand -- winning games.

"Our local media talks about it every day," Clemson head coach Brad Brownell told reporters during the ACC's media day. "I've told them throughout most of the year, we've had a bunch of games they've asked me if they're must-win. Seems like we've done all must-wins in February and here into March. We certainly have some idea of where we are, what we're doing. But we don't talk a lot about it with our players."

"It's not something we go around talking about, 'Hey, we need to win this game to stay in', any of those kinds of things. I think you have to keep your team pretty focused on the job at hand. So we do more of that."

Boston College head coach Steve Donahue agrees: "I'm probably the least informed about those kinds of things. Joe Lunardi is a friend of mine probably since seventh grade. I don't read his stuff. For me it's just not conducive to me producing a good practice, having my head clear about what I'm doing."

"I just think for me it's a lot easier, my life is a lot easier, coaching my team is a lot easier, if I just block it out."

At the end of the day, the bubble is a determination of whether or not you won enough games. Look at George Mason. They hardly beat anyone this season. Their best non-conference wins are against the likes of Harvard, Duquesne, and Florida Atlantic, but they won 26 games and went 16-2, winning a top 10 conference by two full games, so they were able to survive a semifinal loss in the CAA tournament and are still a lock to go dancing.

For major conference teams, the bubble talk is even less important. Marquette is the perfect example. They were on the bubble when they on Tuesday when the Big East Tournament started, but since they had the opportunity to knock off West Virginia in postseason play, they were able to build their resume. The same can be said for a team like Colorado. The Buffaloes are on the outside looking in right now, but if they can beat Kansas State in the Big 12 quarterfinals on Thursday, they will be looking pretty good in the eyes of the selection committee.

But Williams, Brownell, and Donahue are also missing the point.

By marginalizing the "bubble" and the concerns of the fan bases that follow the bubble all year long, he in neglecting the importance of making the NCAA Tournament.

Seasons are defined by whether or not a team goes dancing. Jobs are lost when a coach can't get his team into the right postseason tournament. The NCAA Tournament is the greatest spectacle in sports. Speculating about the bubble only adds to the furor. It brings attention to a sport that has become more or less a niche for 11 months out of the year.

March is the greatest month of the year if you are a fan of college basketball.

Neglecting the discussion of who is in and who is out throughout the season would trivialize everything the season builds up to. Beating a rival is great. Winning on a buzzer-beater is a thrill.

But what people remember -- what people truly value -- are the results that come in the postseason.

So those bubble watches you see every Monday morning in late January? Those will never go away.

And they shouldn't.

But just remember. For all future queries, all your team needs to do to get into the tournament is to win games.

And don't lose them.
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Predicting the bubble

Just some bracket predictions for your viewing pleasure. May as well jump right in...

Locks (as always, if you won your conference tournament, you won't be on this list, pending the Big Ten final)

• ACC: Maryland, Clemson, Wake Forest, Florida State (4)
• Big East: Georgetown, Syracuse, Pitt, Marquette, Louisville, Villanova, Notre Dame (7)
• Big XII: Kansas State, Baylor, Texas A&M, Oklahoma State, Missouri, Texas (6)
• Big Ten: Wisconsin, Purdue, Michigan State, Ohio State (4)
• SEC: Tennessee, Vanderbilt (2)
• A-10: Xavier, Richmond (2)
• MWC: UNLV, BYU, New Mexico (3)
• Other: Gonzaga (1)

If you do a bit of math, you'll see that 29 teams are locked into an at-large bid, leaving five spots open. If Ohio State beats Minnesota, that opens up a sixth spot.

Earlier this morning, we listed 12 teams that were still on the bubble. Of those twelve Rhode Island, William & Mary, and Seton Hall can probably be taken off that list, leaving nine teams for six spots.

Who's in?:

• Georgia Tech: The Yellow Jackets are probably in the best shape of anyone on this list. They have a solid RPI, they beat the top two teams in the ACC, they have as many quality wins (11 vs. the RPI top 100) as anyone on this list. And while they finished just 7-9 in the ACC, they were successful against a touch non-conference schedule.
• Cal: The Bears have fantastic computer numbers, but its a little puzzling where they came from. They are 19th in the RPI, but they have just one RPI top 50 win and that came against a Washington team they finished the season 1-2 against. The Bears played a tough schedule, true, but they lost to all the good teams they played. That said, there is no way that a team that won the Pac-10 (even with five losses) and is ranked 19th in the RPI is missing the tournament.
  
• UTEP: UTEP is in a much more difficult situation than many realized heading into the C-USA tournament. Sure, this team steam rolled their league, but C-USA was considered a one-bid league for much of the year. The Miners have just two RPI top 50 wins (both UAB, not a tournament team) and three losses outside of the top RPI 100. That said, I think the Miners have done enough, and I hope that they get in.
  
• Utah State: Utah State is in the same boat as UTEP, and Cal to a degree. The Aggies won 17 straight games before losing New Mexico State in the WAC title game. And while the majority of that schedule was fluff, Utah State beat most of that fluff and picked up a win against BYU along the way. Combine that with their respectable RPI, and Utah State has to get in if Cal gets in. The same should probably be said for UTEP as well.
  
• Minnesota: The Gophers, in my mind, are probably in regardless of the outcome. They have five RPI top 50 wins and three RPI top 25 wins. The Gophers remind me of Notre Dame a little bit. They underachieved all season long, but a late surge was enough. They could end all doubt with a win over Ohio State.
  
• Illinois: The Illini did just about everything they could in the NCAA tournament to give themselves a real shot of getting in. They beat Wisconsin. They took the best team in the Big Ten with the best player in the country to double OT. They have two wins over the Badgers. They have a win over Michigan State. They beat Clemson on the road and beat Vanderbilt at home. Those are five very good wins. Now think about this - Illinios is 74th in the RPI. With those five wins, playing in the Big Ten, how bad were they the rest of the season to have that kind of ranking?
  

Who's out?:

• Virginia Tech: Tech is the hard luck loser of this season's big dance. They had a couple good wins, but they simply did not play a tough enough schedule. Their non-conference schedule was 344th out of 347 teams (although its not all their fault. They played Iowa, Penn State, Georgia, and Seton Hall). Their best win is at Georgia Tech, which is not saying much. Seven of their ten ACC wins came against teams that won't make the tournament.
  
• Mississippi State: Look, that run through the SEC was nice and all, but don't let an impulse but make you forget how bad MSU was this season. Their best win was Old Dominion coming in, and they lost to five team with RPI's above 100. That's not a tournament team.
  
• Florida: Credit has to be given for playing good teams -- the Gators played nine teams in the RPI top 25. But they lost eight of those games. Florida had their chances at the end of the season, but losses to Georgia and Mississippi State cost them. If it came down to Florida, Minnesota, and Illinois, Florida suffered because they didn't add anything to their resume in their conference tournaments.
  

Taking a stab at the No. 1 seeds, I think it will end up being Kansas, Kentucky, Syracuse, and Duke, in that order, although my personal preference would be for West Virginia.
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Maybe the Pac-10 isn't so bad after all

We've heard it so much that it has become almost ingrained in our heads.

"The Pac-10 is down this season. They are one-bid league. No one can get an at-large."

Well, that has all but been proven false by Cal, whose steady ascension in the RPI has peaked at 22nd as of March 4th. The Bears don't have any great wins, but they have beaten four teams in the non-conference schedule that won or finished in second in their respective leagues, and also lost to the Big XII, Pac-10, Big East, and MWC regular season champ. They've lost five times in Pac-10 play, with four of the five coming on the road.

Jerome Randle and Cal will be dancing.
(photo credit: AP)

Now, Cal would be very lucky to get anything higher than a six or seven seed (and that is if they win the Pac-10 tournament), but the bottom line is that Cal is very close to locking up a bid.

Are they the only one?

Take a look at these resumes:

Team #1: 19-9, 10-7

• RPI: 55; SOS: 55
• Top 25/50/100: 2-2/2-2/6-5
  
• Best Wins: Texas A&M, Cal
• Worst Losses: Oregon, USC twice, UCLA
  

Team #2: 21-9, 11-6

• RPI: 54; SOS: 73
• Top 25/50/100: 0-5/1-5/3-7
  
• Best Wins: San Diego State
  
• Worst Losses: USC, UCLA
  

Team #3: 21-9, 9-6

• RPI: 59; SOS: 126
• Top 25/50/100: 0-2/1-3/6-4
• Best Wins: Old Dominion, Ole Miss twice
• Worst Losses: Alabama, Arkansas, Auburn, Rider, Western Kentucky
  

Team #4: 20-9, 8-7

• RPI: 56; SOS: 64
• Top 25/50/100: 1-5/2-5/4-8
• Best Wins: Kansas State, UTEP
  
• Worst Losses: Arkansas
  

Care to take a guess at which team is which?

... I'll wait ...

Team #1 is Washington, team #2 is Arizona State. Team #3 Mississippi State, and #4 Ole Miss.

I know that there is so much more to selecting the field than those five statistics. I also realize that those numbers don't necessarily tell you the whole story about any team. Mississippi State hasn't played anyone and has beaten even fewer teams while losing to five teams with RPI's over 100. Washington hasn't beaten anyone that matter on the road. Arizona State has no marquee wins, and just one "quality" win. Ole Miss hasn't beaten an SEC opponent with a winning record in league play, and the only SEC team they've beaten with a winning record overall is Alabama.

But the bubble is exceedingly weak this year.

We know this.

Every team on the bubble has flaws.

Hell, Ole Miss and Mississippi State have flaws, but both of them have been getting at-large consideration.

My only question: are Washington and Arizona State really that far behind?

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Where does Notre Dame now sit on the bubble

Before Luke Haragody got hurt, Notre Dame was in a tough place in regards to the bubble.

A weak non-conference schedule combined with a couple of questionable losses (Loyola Marymount, Northwestern, Rutgers) is not the way to go about impressing the NCAA Tournament committee.

After Gody went down, Notre Dame proceeded to lose three straight games - at Seton Hall, St. John's at home, and at Louisville in double overtime. I don't think there was a single bubble "expert" on the internet that still gave Notre Dame a chance to play their way in.

Carleton Scott had 17 points on 7-10 shooting for the Irish.
(photo credit: WaPo)

Well, beating two top 25 teams in the span of four days can sway quite a few people.

The win over Georgetown put the Irish at 2-7 against the RPI top 25 and 4-9 against the top 50. They came into the game with an RPI of 72, which will no doubt improve once this win is factored in. By no means is Notre Dame a lock for the tournament, but they certainly are in a much better place today than they were on Tuesday.

Not many teams can say that they own wins over West Virginia, Pitt, and at Georgetown.

More than anything, however, the Irish passed the eye test this week. After thoroughly dominating Pitt at home, Notre Dame beat Georgetown in DC 78-64. Without Haragody, and with Abromaitis struggling. Ben Hansbrough and Carleton Scott both stepped up big time for the Irish, but the reason I say that the Irish passed the eye test is that they did two things very well today that they generally struggle with.

The Irish missed 21 shots against Georgetown, but grabbed 12 offensive rebounds (they got 10 of their 11 first half misses). They also played better defensively. True, Georgetown shot over 50% from the floor and had more assists than turnovers, but the Irish made a couple key steals leading directly to layups and they executed their game plan to perfection -- taking away three point shooters and making it tough for Monroe inside, going 1-on-1.

The Irish are guaranteed three more games - UConn at home, Marquette on the road, and the first round of the Big East Tournament. I'm of the thinking that the Irish need to beat both the huskies and the Golden Eagles and win their first game in the Big East Tournament if they want to get in.

If the Irish do make the tournament, they are going to be a tough out.

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Selection Sunday is Here! Our Last Minute Tournament Predictions

USC. Temple. Cleveland State. Mississippi State.

If your bubble bursts this weekend, chances one of these four teams is to blame. After the jump, our entire bubble breakdown. There is only one game with any bubble significance today, and that would be the SEC championship game. Tennessee is getting in the tournament. There is no doubt about that. But with the Bulldogs (ugly) win in the SEC championship, one more bubble team just had their tournament dreams ended.

As you know, The Big Lead, Rush The Court, College Hoops Journal, and myself are having a fight to the death friendly competition to see who can be the closest to picking the actual field for the dance. The bracket will be released at six.

Here is the breakdown (italics mean you are still alive in your conference tourney):

LOCKS:

• ACC: Florida State, UNC, Wake Forest, Boston College, Clemson (5)
  
• Big East: UConn, Pitt, Syracuse, West Virginia, Villanova, Marquette (6)
  
• Big Ten: Michigan State, Illinois, Ohio State/Purdue loser (3)
  
• Big XII: Oklahoma, Kansas, Oklahoma State, Texas, Texas A&M (5)
  
• Pac-10: Washington, Arizona State, UCLA, Cal (4)
  
• SEC: LSU, Tennessee (2)
  
• MWC: BYU (1)
  
• A-10: Xavier, Dayton (2)
  
• Others: Butler (1)

BUBBLE:

• ACC: Maryland (1)
• Big East: Providence (1)
• Big Ten: Wisconsin, Penn State, Michigan, Minnesota (4)
• Pac-10: Arizona (1)
• SEC: Florida, South Carolina, Auburn (3)
• MWC: San Diego State (1)
• Others: Creighton, St. Mary's (2)

So there it is. Those 13 teams are fighting for five spots. Here are my picks for those final bids:

Michigan: There are four Big Ten teams on the bubble, but methinks the Wolverines are in the best shape. They have an RPI of 40, mainly because they played one of the country's ten toughest schedules. Wins against UCLA and Duke highlight a tough non-conference schedule, and the Wolverines also picked up wins against Illinois and Minnesota (sweep) in Big Ten play. All told, Michigan was 6-9 against the top 50 and had nine top 100 wins.

Wisconsin: The Badgers have an RPI and SOS similar to that of Michigan, but there are some things the Badgers have going against them - like the fact that they lack out of conference victories with the same oomph. Yes, the Badgers swept Michigan, but they are 4-10 vs. the top 50 RPI. Their best out of conference win is Va. Tech. That said, I still think Wisconsin will be in today.

Maryland: How is this team different from Boston College? They have three very good wins (UNC, Wake, MSU) and two really bad losses (Morgan State, UVA). Yes their RPI is a bit lower, but they also played a tougher schedule. The biggest issue is their road record. But doesn't some of that concern get erased by two wins at a neutral court? As long as they don't lose to Duke by 40 again, the Terps should get in.

Minnesota: The Gophers are another one of those Big Ten teams that look pretty good to get in. They are a bit behind Wisconsin and Michigan at this point because they only played one real team in the non-conference, but it just so happens that team was Louisville, and the Gophers just so happened to beat them. Their RPI is better than either Wisconsin or Michigan, but they also played a weaker schedule. Again I think they are in, but behind the Wolverines and the Badgers.

Arizona: The Wildcats have a very strong resume. They have beaten Washington, Kansas, Gonzaga, San Diego State and UCLA. But they were 2-9 on the road and lost five of their last six. Those five losses, however, came against four tournament teams and Washington State, who was the hottest team out west in the last few weeks. Arizona is 6-10 against the top 50, and I just think that the Wildcats are the one team on the bubble that I would want to play the least if I was a five or six seed.

St. Mary's: St. Mary's would have been the team that got in if Mississippi State lost today. They are now 20-2 with Patty Mills in the line-up, which includes an ever-improving win over San Diego State. I was also very impressed when they beat Utah State without Mills. Again, their resume isn't going to show it, but the Gaels are one of the top 25-30 teams in the country with a healthy Patty Mills.


Who is out:

Penn State: Penn State played a weak non-conference schedule, I know that. But they beat six top 50 teams in conference play, finished 10-8 in a league that could get 8 teams in, and they won at Illinois and at Michigan State. It is hard for me to leave a team with those wins out, but Ed Dechellis scheduled his non-conference to make sure he was NIT eligible. Ironically, it will send him to the NIT.

Creighton: Creighton is tough this year. They have an RPI in the low 40's and shared the MVC regular season crown. What impresses me the most is their 18 point win against Dayton, their 9-5 record against the top 100, and their 8-4 record on the road. They also have two road losses (Arkansas Little-Rock and Nebraska) that came on last second shots early in the season. The Bluejays are probably the first team out after the Gaels, simply because their resume just doesn't stack up against the Arizona, who beat three top 25 conference champs out of conference.

South Carolina: Winning a share of the SEC East is nice, but it is akin to winning the MVC this year. South Carolina has beaten one top 50 team (#46 Florida) and just lost a game they really needed to win against Mississippi State.

Florida: The Gators were terrible on the road this year, going just 2-7. They were also just 2-6 against the RPI top 50, and they lost a game to an Auburn team that may be the hottest team in the country.

Auburn: No one is playing better than the Tigers right now, but just because they are playing well this month doesn't help them over come a poor season. They've only beaten two top 50 teams and five top 100 teams, and all of those came in the last month. In fact, 15 of their 21 wins are against teams outside the the top 100 and their best non conference wins are Virginia and Tulane.

San Diego State: The Aztecs drop out after losing the MWC finals to Utah. Looking at their resume compared to everyone else on the bubble, the Aztecs just don't have the wins against good teams. They only have two top 50 RPI wins, and both came in conference.

Just for fun, I'll take a stab at the top four seeds:

1's: Louisville (#1 overall), UNC, Pitt, Memphis
2's: UConn, Duke, Michigan State, Kansas
3's: Missouri, Wake Forest, Oklahoma, Syracuse
4's: Washington, Gonzaga, Xavier, Villanova
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Bubble You Pleasure, Bubble Your Fun Part V - So Many Teams, So Few Spots

Tomorrow at 1 pm, The Big Lead, Rush The Court, College Hoops Journal, and yours truly will be unveiling our bracket predictions. As I am sure you are all well aware, the writers at these three sites are the far and away the leading college basketball minds on all the intrawebs. Be sure to check out the predictions before the Sunday night's selection show, and then compare ours with the ESPN's, the SI's, and the CBS's of the world.

65 teams. 31 automatic bids. Some simple math tells us that 34 at-large bids are left over. A day before Selection Sunday clears up all this bubble mess, let's take a look at where teams stand (italics indicate they are still alive in their conference tournament).

LOCKS:

• ACC: Duke, UNC, Wake Forest, Clemson, Florida State (5)
  
• Big East: Louisville, UConn, Pitt, Syracuse, West Virginia, Villanova, Marquette (7)
  
• Big Ten: Michigan State, Purdue, Illinois, Ohio State (4)
  
• Big XII: Oklahoma, Kansas, Missouri, Oklahoma State, Texas, Texas A&M (6)
  
• Pac-10: Washington, Arizona State, UCLA, Cal (4)
  
• SEC: LSU, Tennessee (2)
  
• MWC: BYU, Utah (2)
  
• A-10: Xavier, Dayton (2)
  
• Others: Memphis, Butler (2)

BUBBLE:

• ACC: Boston College, Maryland (2)
• Big East: Providence, Georgetown (1)
• Big Ten: Wisconsin, Penn State, Michigan, Minnesota (4)
• Big XII: Baylor (1)*
• Pac-10: USC, Arizona (2)
• SEC: Florida, South Carolina, Auburn (3)
• MWC: San Diego State (1)
• A-10: Temple, Duquense* (2)
• Others: Utah State, Creighton, St. Mary's (3)

*(not on the bubble, but in their tourney final)

So what does all that tell us?

For starters, let's assume that Utah State, Utah, and Memphis all win their conference tournaments, and that five of the six major conference tournaments are won by teams that are "locks" (I think it is a reasonable assumption that one of USC, Baylor, or Auburn/Mississippi State could pull out a conference title). That would free up seven spots for the 16 bubble teams.

Of those sixteen bubble teams, who is in the best shape right now?

The way I see it, these guys are in the best shape:

Boston College: the Eagles are all but in the tournament at this point. As troublesome as the L's to Harvard and St. Louis are, wins over UNC, Duke, and Florida State more than make up for it. Their RPI is 56, they are a repsectable 5-5 on the road (including a win at UNC), and went 4-5/7-8 against the RPI top 50/100.

Michigan: There are four Big Ten teams on the bubble, but methinks the Wolverines are in the best shape. They have an RPI of 43, mainly because they played one of the country's ten toughest schedules. Wins against UCLA highlight a tough non-conference schedule, and the Wolverines also picked up wins against Illinois and Minnesota (sweep) in Big Ten play. All told, Michigan was 6-9 against the top 50 and had nine top 100 wins.

San Diego State: The Aztecs are tough to call. Their RPI is a very respectable 31 after beating UNLV and BYU en route to reaching the WAC final. But they have done zilch out of conference. They have just two top 50 wins (BYU and Utah), and six top 100 wins (three against UNLV). The issue is going to be how the committee evaluates a mediocre non-conference schedule. I think they deserve a bid, but the Aztecs should win the WAC just to be safe.


These next four teams are in pretty good shape:

Wisconsin: The Badgers have an RPI and SOS similar to that of Michigan, but there are two things the Badgers have going against them - they lack out of conference victories with the same oomph. Yes, the Badgers swept Michigan, but they are 4-10 vs. the top 50 RPI. Their best out of conference win is Va. Tech. That said, I still think Wisconsin will be in tomorrow.

Minnesota: The Gophers are another one of those Big Ten teams that look pretty good to get in. They are a bit behind Wisconsin and Michigan at this point because they only played one real team in the non-conference, but it just so happens that team was Louisville, and the Gophers just so happened to beat them. Their RPI is better than either Wisconsin or Michigan, but they also played a weaker schedule. Again I think they are in, but behind the Wolverines and the Badgers.

Maryland: How is this team different from Boston College? They have three very good wins (UNC, Wake, MSU) and two really bad losses (Morgan State, UVA). Yes their RPI is a bit lower, but they also played a tougher schedule. The biggest issue is their road record. But doesn't some of that concern get erased by two wins at a neutral court? As long as they don't lose to Duke by 40 again, the Terps should get in.

St. Mary's: I think St. Mary's gets in if there are no more upsets in the conference tournaments. They are now 20-2 with Patty Mills in the line-up, which includes an ever-improving win over San Diego State. I was also very impressed when they beat Utah State without Mills. Again, their resume isn't going to show it, but the Gaels are one of the top 25-30 teams in the country with a healthy Patty Mills.

Penn State: Penn State played a weak non-conference schedule, I know that. But they beat six top 50 teams in conference play, finished 10-8 in a league that could get 8 teams in, and they won at Illinois and at Michigan State. I think they have a slight advantage over Creighton.

The rest of the bubble:

Creighton: Creighton is tough this year. They have an RPI in the low 40's and shared the MVC regular season crown. What impresses me the most is their 18 point win against Dayton, their 9-5 record against the top 100, and their 8-4 record on the road. They also have two road losses (Arkansas Little-Rock and Nebraska) that came on last second shots early in the season. The Bluejays are my first team out, simply because their resume just doesn't stack up against the Nittany Lions, who went 10-8 in a balanced Big Ten and had 6 top 50 wins, regardless of their non-conference schedule.

Arizona: The Wildcats have a very strong resume. They have beaten Washington, Kansas, Gonzaga, San Diego State and UCLA. But they were 2-9 on the road and lost five of their last six. The Wildcats needed the Arizona State game.

Utah State: My biggest issue with Utah State is that 26 of their 29 wins are against teams outside of the top 100 in the RPI. No team with 27 or more wins has ever been left out of the tournament. But then again, until Thursday, no Big East Tournament game had ever gone four overtimes. Win the WAC.

South Carolina: Winning a share of the SEC East is nice, but it is akin to winning the MVC this year. South Carolina has beaten one top 50 team (#46 Florida) and just lost a game they really needed to win against Mississippi State.

Florida: The Gators were terrible on the road this year, going just 2-7. They were also just 2-6 against the RPI top 50, and they lost a game to an Auburn team that may be the hottest team in the country.

Auburn: No one is playing better than the Tigers right now, but just because they are playing well this month doesn't help them over come a poor season. They've only beaten two top 50 teams and five top 100 teams, and all of those came in the last month. In fact, 15 of their 21 wins are against teams outside the the top 100 and their best non conference wins are Virginia and Tulane. Beat Tennessee and we will talk.

Temple: The Owls have two very good wins this year in Tennessee and Xavier, but three losses to teams that are RPI 100+ is too much to overcome. Win the A-10.

USC: The Trojans have beaten two top 50 teams in teh last two days to advance to the PPac-10 finals, but their resume is not good enough. They have now four top 50 wins (Arizona, Cal x2, UCLA), but they are 2-7 on the road and their best non-conference win is North Dakota State. Win the Pac-10.
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Bubble You Pleasure, Bubble Your Fun Part III

The major conference tournaments will be starting over the next three days, and seeing as the bubble is obscenely weak this year, the majority of the bubble determination is going to come in the form of middle-of-the-pack major conference teams playing each other in their conference tournament's early rounds. Be sure to check back here daily for complete analysis of everything bubble over the next week.

Sweating it out (record, RPI, SOS, top 50, top 100, road): Who has already lost?

- St. Mary's (25-6, 45, 160, 2-3, 3-4, 8-3):
Best Wins: Providence, Utah State, San Diego State
Worst Losses: Portland, Santa Clara

See here for St. Mary's analysis.

- Creighton (26-7, 39, 106, 3-2, 9-4, 8-4):
Best Wins: Northern Iowa, Dayton, George Mason
Worst Losses: Drake, Wichita State, Arkansas Little-Rock

What is going to doom the Bluejays is their early season losses to Arkansas Little-Rock and Nebraska. Both were on the road to top 100 RPI teams on shots hit in the last 10 seconds. In back-to-back games. If this profile read 28-5, 11-2 against the top 100 and 10-2 on the road, we would be saying much different things about the Bluejays. They are probably on the outside looking in right now.

- Davidson (25-7, 69, 165, 1-4, 1-4, 10-2):
Best Wins: West Virginia
Worst Losses: Citadel, Charleston (twice)

Davidson is out. I am giving them a courtesy post because I love Steph Curry. See here for more Davidson analysis.

Texas A&M (22-10, 29, 43, 4-5, 8-8, 4-5)
Best Wins: Missouri, Texas, LSU, Arizona
Worst Losses: Tulsa, Texas Tech

The Aggies lost to Texas Tech last night (thanks to an ungodly performance by Mike Singletary). A&M should still feel pretty safe. They have a number of good wins, especially in non-conference play, and they came into March on a six game winning streak. Lunardi had them as a nine before last night, which means that even with the loss, there are going to have to be a lot of teams that jump them in the next few days.


Today's Games:

Texas (21-10, 35, 28, 6-6, 8-9, 4-6):
Best Wins: UCLA, Villanova, Wisconsin, Oklahoma
Worst Losses: Arkansas

The Longhorns should be feeling pretty good about themselves. They have a good RPI and a good SOS, and six top 50 wins and four top 30 wins is nothing to sneeze at. The issue with Texas is that while they only have one really bad loss, they were not great in true road games and, well, they have so many losses. 11 losses is a pretty big number (they will be at 11 if they don't win the Big XII tourney). The win over Colorado probably sealed it, but beating fellow bubble team Kansas State could give them some breathing room come Sunday.

Kansas State (20-10, 75, 98, 3-5, 4-8, 5-5)
Best Wins: Missouri, Texas
Worst Losses: Iowa, Oregon

K-State probably needs to win at least two games in the Big XII Tournament for a shot at dancing. They beat Cleveland State in the non-conference slate, but followed that up with losses to Kentucky, Iowa, and Oregon. They did finish strong in the Big XII, winning 9 of 12 games to close out the year, but that may not be enough with that low of an RPI.

Oklahoma State (21-10, 25, 9, 3-9, 8-10, 4-6):
Best Wins: Siena, Texas A&M, Texas
Worst Losses: Baylor

I think the Pokes are in at this point as well. While they don't have many great wins, they have one loss to a team ranked higher than 35 in the RPI, and that was Baylor who is 76. The win yesterday was big, as they now get another shot at OU. 3-9 against the top 50 doesn't look good, but 8 top 100 wins is solid. A win against Oklahoma today would be huge.

Providence (19-12, 71, 45, 2-8, 6-11, 4-6):
Best Wins: Pitt, Syracuse
Worst Losses: Northeastern, Baylor

Providence beeat DePaul, but that win doesn't really help them. They are probably at the point where they need to beat Louisville to get into the dance.

Penn State (21-10, 64, 82, 5-9, 6-10, 5-6)
Best Wins: Michigan State, Illinois (x2), Purdue
Worst Losses: Rhode Island, Iowa

Penn State absolutely cannot lose to Indiana today, especially after losing to Iowa on the last day of the regular season. The Nittany Lions are right on the edge of the bubble, as either one of the last teams in or one of the first teams out. They need this game, and then probably one more (Purdue) just to be safe.

Michigan (18-12, 42, 10, 6-9, 9-11, 3-8)
Best Wins: UCLA, Duke, Illinois, Minnesota (x2)
Worst Losses: Maryland, Iowa

Michigan is another team right on the edge of the bubble (as is about half of the Big Ten). They get Iowa today, who has beaten them Wolverines this year. Michigan has a number of great wins and has played a very tough schedule (10th nationally, 20 games against the top 100, 15 against the top 50). Beilein seems to have a knack for getting the job done in March, and the Wolverines need him to work some magic this year. A win here is huge.

Minnesota (21-9, 41, 38, 6-7, 8-8, 3-6)
Best Wins: Louisville, Illinois
Worst Losses: Northwestern

The Gophers have a solid resume. Good RPI, no terrible losses (Northwestern knocked off a lot of people this year), and 6 wins against the top 50. But other than Louisville, they don't have much to show for their non-conference slate. If they can handle Northwestern in the first round, they should be close to a lock to go dancing.

Florida (22-9, 48, 84, 2-6, 8-8, 2-7)
Best Wins: Washington, South Carolina
Worst Losses: Mississippi State, Georgia

The win is the Gator's season finale against Kentucky was huge. Florida now has an easy road to the semifinals of the SEC tourney, getting Arkansas in the opener and Auburn if thy advance. Two more wins, and the Gators may play their way into a bid.

Miami (17-11, 52, 25, 2-6, 6-10, 4-6)
Best Wins: Wake Forest, Florida State
Worst Losses: NC State, Maryland, Georgia Tech

Miami really shot themselves in the foot with close road losses, especially to inferior opponents. But the Canes still have a great shot of getting a bid if they can win a couple games. They have Va Tech in the opening round, and with a win get another shot at Carolina.

Virginia Tech (17-13, 63, 23, 2-8, 5-11, 5-6)
Best Wins: Clemson, Wake Forest
Worst Losses: Georgia, Virginia, Seton Hall

The Hokies played their way out of the tournament down the stretch. They lost six of their last seven, and couldn't close out anyone this year. They need to make a serious run, but if they can get past UNC, they are all of a sudden back in the discussion.

Boston College (21-10, 57, 58, 4-4, 7-7, 5-5)
Best Wins: UNC, Duke, Florida State
Worst Losses: Harvard, St. Louis

Is there a team with more good wins and bad losses? The number of good wins means that if BC can get by Virginia today, they should be fine. Even with a loss today they may be in.

Maryland (18-12, 67, 28, 3-7, 7-10, 2-6)
Best Wins: UNC, Mich State
Wost Losses: Virginia, Morgan State

If they had beaten Virginia on the last day of the regular season, it would be a much different story for the Terps. But as it is, they are in trouble when it comes to the tournament. They absolutely need to beat NC State, and then probably need to win their second round game in order to have a serious chance.

Arizona (19-12, 54, 32, 6-8, 8-11, 2-9)
Best Wins: UCLA, Washington, Kansas
Worst Losses: Stanford, Washington State

Arizona looks to be in decent shape right now. They have a so-so RPI against a good schedule. Their bad losses were both on the road in conference (which, as I always say, is the most forgivable "bad loss") and they have three top 30 wins. The issue with the Wildcats is their lack of quality performances on the road, and the fact that they lost four of their last five. Lunardi has them in right now, but that will change with a loss to the Sun Devils today. Win and you're in.

UNLV (21-9, 56, 86, 4-4, 8-6, 6-6)
Best Wins: Louisville, BYU (x2), Utah, Arizona
Worst Losses: TCU, Colorado State

The Rebels have four top 25 wins and have won at BYU and at Louisville (without Wink Adams). The only reason they are on the bubble right now is road losses to TCU and Colorado State. Even with a loss to San Diego State today, I think UNLV will be dancing. But 9-8 outside of a power conference might be tough to look past. The game is in Vegas and will be essentially a home game. Win it, and end the speculation

San Diego State (19-8, 43, 66, 1-5, 4-7, 5-4)
Best Wins: Utah, UNLV (x2)
Worst Losses: Wyoming

SDSU has put a decent resume together. The only issue is their lack of quality wins, especially outside their conference. They do have a sweep of the Rebels, but they need to make that three in a row today, and then probably win their second round game as well if they want to get an at-large bid.

New Mexico (21-10, 58, 80, 4-4, 5-7, 6-6)
Best Wins: BYU, Utah, SDSU, UNLV
Worst Losses: Central Florida, Drake, Texas Tech, UTEP

New Mexico won eight of their last nine games, including against Utah, UNLV, and SDSU. It helped them clinch a share of the MWC crown, which is very impressive considering five of the nine teams in that league are in bubble contention. Lunardi has them in right now, but I think they still need to do some work. They have three terrible losses (UCF is 143, Drake is 166, and Tech is 128 in the RPI) as well as one to UTEP (79) and their best out of conference win is Mississippi. If they can beat Wyoming, I think their chances are a lot better. Get to the finals and they are in.

Temple (19-11, 40, 50, 1-5, 4-8, 9-8)
Best Wins: Tennessee
Worst Losses: Buffalo, Miami OH, Long Beach State, UMass, La Salle

Who am I kidding? Temple needs to get to at least the semi's, maybe the finals, to get an at-large bid. They have some terrible losses, but one thing to keep in mind - they played 17 of their 30 games on the road, and two more on a neutral court.

Utah State (26-4, 28, 137, 1-1, 2-3, 10-3)
Best Wins: Utah
Worst Losses: Boise State, Nevada

Utah State is not getting an at-large bid. They have 12 wins against teams that are 200+ in the RPI, another five against teams that are 150+, and they have one win of significance. If they had beaten St. Mary's, Nevada, and Boise State, and were coming into this tournament 29-1, then it would be a different story. But they didn't. Win the WAC.
Continue reading...

Bubble You Pleasure, Bubble Your Fun Part II

The major conference tournaments will be starting over the next three days, and seeing as the bubble is obscenely weak this year, the majority of the bubble determination is going to come in the form of middle-of-the-pack major conference teams playing each other in their conference tournament's early rounds. Be sure to check back here daily for complete analysis of everything bubble over the next week.

Sweating it out (record, RPI, SOS, top 50, top 100, road): Who has already lost?

- St. Mary's (25-6, 45, 160, 2-3, 3-4, 8-3):
Best Wins: Providence, Utah State, San Diego State
Worst Losses: Portland, Santa Clara

See here for St. Mary's analysis.

- Creighton (26-7, 39, 106, 3-2, 9-4, 8-4):
Best Wins: Northern Iowa, Dayton, George Mason
Worst Losses: Drake, Wichita State, Arkansas Little-Rock

What is going to doom the Bluejays is their early season losses to Arkansas Little-Rock and Nebraska. Both were on the road to top 100 RPI teams on shots hit in the last 10 seconds. In back-to-back games. If this profile read 28-5, 11-2 against the top 100 and 10-2 on the road, we would be saying much different things about the Bluejays. They are probably on the outside looking in right now.

- Davidson (25-7, 69, 165, 1-4, 1-4, 10-2):
Best Wins: West Virginia
Worst Losses: Citadel, Charleston (twice)

Davidson is out. I am giving them a courtesy post because I love Steph Curry. See here for more Davidson analysis.

Today's Games: Georgetown and Cincinnati lost yesterday, which means we now stop talking about them. Today, the A-10, Big XII, Mountain West, Conference USA, and Pac-10 tournaments all kick off, but only the Big XII has any bubble games on today's docket.

Texas (20-10, 35, 28, 6-6, 8-9, 4-6):
Best Wins: UCLA, Villanova, Wisconsin, Oklahoma
Worst Losses: Arkansas

The Longhorns should be feeling pretty good about themselves. They have a good RPI and a good SOS, and six top 50 wins and four top 30 wins is nothing to sneeze at. The issue with Texas is that while they only have one really bad loss, they were not great in true road games and, well, they have so many losses. 11 losses is a pretty big number (they will be at 11 if they don't win the Big XII tourney). I think avoiding a loss to Colorado and getting a chance to seal up another with win over K-State in the quarters.

Oklahoma State (20-10, 25, 9, 3-9, 8-10, 4-6):
Best Wins: Siena, Texas A&M, Texas
Worst Losses: Baylor

I think the Pokes are in at this point as well. While they don't have many great wins, they have one loss to a team ranked higher than 35 in the RPI, and that was Baylor who is 76. Like Texas, I think a win seals it for the Cowboys. It at least gives them another shot at the Sooners.

Texas A&M (22-9, 29, 43, 4-5, 8-8, 4-5)
Best Wins: Missouri, Texas, LSU, Arizona
Worst Losses: Tulsa

A&M was in huge trouble back in Febraury after starting the conference season out 3-7. But they have reeled off six straight wins, including picking up W's against Texas and Missouri. They have non-conference win against LSU and Arizona which are as good as any other teams in the conference. I think they are in even if they lose to Texas Tech today.

Providence (18-12, 71, 45, 2-8, 6-11, 4-6):
Best Wins: Pitt, Syracuse
Worst Losses: Northeastern, Baylor

PC got screwed by DePaul's upset win over Cincinnati. Not only is that going to hurt Cincinnati's profile, it will make the Friar's two wins over the Bearcats less impressive. More importantly, it means that Providence will only get a chance to beat DePaul, which will have almost no positive effect on their tournament chances, before having to play Louisville in the quarters. Beating Cinci could have helped their profile, while beating DePaul is what every Big East team was able to do until yesterday. PC now may need to beat UConn to feel safe.

Notre Dame (16-13, 73, 37, 3-11, 5-12, 3-8) vs. Rutgers
Best Wins: Texas, Louisville, Georgetown
Worst Losses: St. John's

The Rutgers win doesn't do much, but it gets the Irish on track. Next up in West Virginia today. If Harangody and company can pull off this win, they might sneak back into the conversation. But for any real opportunity at the tourney, the Irish are probably going to need to win two more games. Continue reading...

Bubble You Pleasure, Bubble Your Fun

The major conference tournaments will be starting over the next three days, and seeing as the bubble is obscenely weak this year, the majority of the bubble determination is going to come in the form of middle-of-the-pack major conference teams playing each other in their conference tournament's early rounds. Be sure to check back here daily for complete analysis of everything bubble over the next week.

Sweating it out (record, RPI, SOS, top 50, top 100, road): Who has already lost?

- St. Mary's (25-6, 45, 160, 2-3, 3-4, 8-3):
Best Wins: Providence, Utah State, San Diego State
Worst Losses: Portland, Santa Clara
See here for St. Mary's analysis.

- Creighton (26-7, 39, 106, 3-2, 9-4, 8-4):
Best Wins: Northern Iowa, Dayton, George Mason
Worst Losses: Drake, Wichita State, Arkansas Little-Rock
What is going to doom the Bluejays is their early season losses to Arkansas Little-Rock and Nebraska. Both were on the road to top 100 RPI teams on shots hit in the last 10 seconds. In back-to-back games. If this profile read 28-5, 11-2 against the top 100 and 10-2 on the road, we would be saying much different things about the Bluejays. They are probably on the outside looking in right now.

- Davidson (25-7, 69, 165, 1-4, 1-4, 10-2):
Best Wins: West Virginia
Worst Losses: Citadel, Charleston (twice)
Davidson is out. I am giving them a courtesy post because I love Steph Curry. See here for more Davidson analysis.

Today's Bubble Games: Nothing too important on the bubble schedule.

- Cincinnati (17-13, 72, 32, 4-9, 7-11, 4-7) vs. DePaul
Best Wins: UNLV (road), UAB, Georgetown (twice), West Virginia
Worst Losses: South Florida, Seton Hall
Cincinnati was all set to put themselves into great position to earn a big. They were 17-11, 8-8 in the league, with just South Florida nd Seton Hall on their schedule. They then proceeded to lose both games, all but taking themselves out of bubble consideration. They probably need to get to the semi's, going through UConn, if they want a serious chance at dancing (you will notice a theme today).

- Georgetown (16-13, 49, 4, 4-9, 7-12, 3-7) vs. St. John's
Best Wins: UConn, Memphis, Syracuse, Villanova
Worst Losses: Seton Hall, St. John's
Georgetown, like Cincinnati, was set to make a serious run at a bid after they knocked off Villanova in Philly. They had four top 20 wins and no losses outside the top 100 (Seton Hall is 100). Until they played St. John's, where they blew a 15 point second half lead before losing in overtime. Again, a trip to the semi's is probably the minimum they need, beating Marquette and Villanova on the way there.

- Notre Dame (16-13, 73, 37, 3-11, 5-12, 3-8) vs. Rutgers
Best Wins: Texas, Louisville, Georgetown
Worst Losses: St. John's
Notre Dame is another team with just one bad loss, but they don't have enough good wins to justify getting into the dance right now. I think both ND and G'Town are good enough to be an NCAA tournament team, but both were just decimated by the rigors of the Big East - G'Town because of their inexperience and lack of depth, and ND because of their lack of size inside. Semi's or bust, baby.

- Butler (25-4, 18, 99, 2-1, 12-2, 12-3) vs. Cleveland State
Best Wins: Xavier, UAB
Worst Losses: Loyola IL, Wisconsin-Milwaukee
The only reason I am putting Butler here is because of what will happen if they lose the Cleveland State (very possible, they swept CSU by a total of four points, one of which was a buzzer-beater in OT). Butler is a lock, and is they lose, someone's bubble will burst. Continue reading...